Analysis part... 4? Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Milk
Pros: Great year this one and last. In a hyped movie. Some important precursors. Closeted gay omgz.
Cons: Not enough precursors. Missed out at the Globes, which generally seemed to hate Milk in general. Vote splitting between him and Franco, the other Milk supporting actor?
Do I think he's in? Yes. He was great too. :)

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Pros: Great reviews and his buzz never died, accompanied by many precursors. He had a triumphant comeback year. Many noms including Globe and SAG.
Cons: His film still just a stupid comedy, not Oscar's forte at all and almost certain to get no other nominations. Many precursor noms, no precursor wins.
Do I think he's in? Yes, and I'm thrilled to see him have such a triumphant year, but I wish it was for Iron Man.

James Franco, Milk
Pros: Moving performance. He's been viewed as an up-and-comer for many years now. Playing gay. A few precursors.
Cons: Memories of "so good" have to decrease his credibility. Not enough precursors. Josh Brolin has most of the hype for this movie.
Do I think he's in? No, but it wouldn't shock me.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Pros: PSH is a new AMPAS favorite. Movie's getting a lot of attention. Meaty role. Many noms including Globes and SAG.
Cons: Based on the play (I haven't seen the movie so I dunno if they modified his character) he's a lead and this is category fraud. Not many wins because Heath Ledger has a lot of them.
Do I think he's in? Yes.

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Pros: ummm... where to begin. Death sympathy. A starring role in the biggest film of the year. He shapes that film and makes it as good as it is. Goodwill from Brokeback Mountain a few years ago. Incredible, blinding, deafening hype that he actually lived up to with outstanding reviews. He's basically won every single precursor award. And basically, it's just one fuuuucking heeeell of a performance that virtually everyone has seen.
Cons: He's in a superhero movie. The few naysayers who are like "OMG U ONLY LYKE HIM CUZ HEZ DED!!!! DIS MOOVIE IS OVERRATED N NOT GUD!!!!!!!"
Do I think he's in? A doy duh. The biggest, and at this point only, lock for a win.

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Big role, supposedly actually lead (I haven't seen the film). His film is beloved. Apparently his character is extremely lovable. SAG nomination and a few others along the way. They love precocious young actors.
Cons: Missed the Globe nod and they loved his film too. Doesn't have tons of precursors. Might be characterized as a lead.
Do I think he's in? Considering the orgy of love for Slumdog Millionaire and how he seems to have gained much hype out of nowhere, yes.

Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Pros: Brad Pitt. In a Coen brothers film. Terrific and memorable.
Cons: No precusors save the BAFTA. Robert Downey Jr. already has the "supporting role in a stupid comedy" nomination (yes yes, Burn After Reading and Tropic Thunder are very different). Nobody's paying attention to his film.
Do I think he's in? No, but I sure as hell would love it.

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Sure to get attention with the fact that he's in the OMG LEO AND KATE!!!! movie. Apparently he's one hell of a scene stealer and his performance is excellent.
Cons: No real precursors and his film seems to be losing hype.
Do I think he's in? No.

The Pulpys 2007 - Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor :: Musical / Comedy
and the nominees are


James Marsden as Prince Edward in Enchanted


Paul Rudd as Pete in Knocked Up


Ed Sanders as Toby in Sweeney Todd
(Grrr. This is the only picture of him I can find. I think Helena and Johnny were the only people in that movie *eye roll*)


Philip Seymour Hoffman as Gust Avrakrotos in Charlie Wilson's War


JK Simmons as Mac MacGuff in Juno


Christopher Walken as Wilbur Turnblad in Hairspray

and the winner is
Philip Seymour Hoffman



Supporting Actor :: Drama
and the nominees are


Javier Bardem as Anton Chigurh in No Country for Old Men


Paul Dano as Paul Sunday and Eli Sunday in There Will Be Blood


Hal Holbrook as Ron Franz in Into the Wild
(Emile's shorts still make me uncomfortable)


Tommy Lee Jones as Ed Bell in No Country for Old Men


Tom Wilkinson as Arthur Edens in Michael Clayton


Steve Zahn as Duane Martin in Rescue Dawn

and the winner is
Tommy Lee Jones
because apparently it's a good year for people with three names ;)

For Oscar rules:
Javier Bardem
* Tommy Lee Jones *
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Tom Wilkinson
Steve Zahn

So yeah, the Academy did a really good job here. The only three performances I missed out on here that I'd like to "apologize" to are Robert Downey Jr. in Zodiac, Morgan Freeman in Gone Baby Gone, and Robert De Niro in Stardust, who may have been awful but kept me cracking the shit up because...Robert De Niro. Gay pirate. Named Shakespeare. OH MY GOD.

Analyzing: Best Supporting Actor.

Second verse, same as the first.

5. Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild.

I'm with many that Into the Wild is one of the most overrated films of 2007. It just...really doesn't do it for me. That said, Hal Holbrook is perhaps the best thing about it. In very little screen time, he completely transforms the movie, and perhaps even your thoughts on Chris. His portrayal is honest and layered. You'll notice I haven't said anything even remotely bad about Hal. That's because Best Supporting Actor this year is pretty fucking amazing. Good on that, Academy. On a completely unrelated note - yikes, how short are those shorts on Emile in this picture?
Why he might win: The Academy sure as heck loves their old veterans - shades of Alan Arkin?
Why he might not: Not at all the frontrunner. The Academy clearly didn't like his film as much as we all thought they would. Not Javier Bardem.

4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War.

I think a lot of people get bitchy about Charlie Wilson's War because it has Julia Roberts, Tom Hanks, and PSH, a combination of which makes a lot of people break out in hives. Truth is, it's really clever and actually says something for the most part (its flaw is that script got some of the bite taken out of it by the real-life Joanne Herring, who sued, so it's perhaps not as smart as it could be) - but the banter between the male leads alone makes it worth watching. Hanks is just great, but it's the Hoff that runs away with this show. Simply put, it's his movie, and the absolute glee as he gobbles up scenery while somehow, improbably, creating a character is palpable. Hammy? Maybe. But I ate that ham right up.
Why he might win: His film made the most money in this category. I think the Oscars just woke up to the fact that PSH is, you know, an awesome actor, and will now want to reward him forever. Just like they did with C.Blah around 2004, but PSH is way better than boring ol' C.Blah...
Why he might not: This is his film's only nomination. He's the only previous winner and in a category with the potentially snubbed in the past, that hurts him badly. Not Javier Bardem.

3. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton.

Tom Wilkinson is easily one of the best actors working today. Wilkinson + baguettes + crazy = YES! That voice brings gravitas. Is he insane, or is he the only one in this movie that's actually woken up? This isn't a particularly original thought, but he is so much like Peter Finch in Network. And that, my friends, is a very good thing to be.
Why he might win: In a Best Picture nominee. The Academy loves 'em old and British.
Why he might not: No other precursors. Not Javier Bardem.

2. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of That Guy By The Other Guy.

And here we have the year's honorary Egregious Category Fraud nomination (Foxx [in supporting, obviously] 04, Gyllenhaal 05, Blanchett 06) where an absolutely unquestionable lead gets thrown in supporting. That's not to diminish Affleck's achievement, however. The character is completely annoying at first, but he just portrays his need to be liked so badly that we feel for him nevertheless. The way his obsession with Jesse James gets played is simply great as well. Robert Ford is incredibly complex, and Affleck nails every nuance and character trait. He's utterly mesmirizing to watch as well; kid's got charisma. I know I'm a huge fan of Ben Affleck, and I do think he's a good actor, but Casey put him in his place to a ridiculous extent in this movie. Sort of related - Casey's fans are the second most annoying this year (first are Marion's, duh). I have no problems with people liking him, as clearly I do too. But do you always have to put down the front-runner and say "IF YOU SAW CASEY AND THINK JAVIER IS BETTER, YOU ARE A STUPID MORON!!!!!!" No. You don't. It's also very annoying that whenever someone lists Javier as their preferred winner they go "DID YOU SEE JESSE JAMES??????????" Anyway. Rock on, Casey.
Why he might win: He clearly has legions of fans. The critics awards Javier Bardem didn't win, he did.
Why he might not: His film made very little money. Not Javier Bardem.

1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men.

What is Anton Chigurh? Is he a serial killer? A madman? A drug lord? Or is he not something human at all, but merely a symbol of something else - death? evil? Only a master could play such an inspecific role and get it to feel completely like an actual person, and Javier Bardem absolutely does that. What's more, he adds tons of humor into the role, somehow, and even makes you feel a squeeze sorry for him in the last scene. I know Javier Bardem is a dashing, handsome Spanish man, but now all I can see him as is a crazed killer, completely lacking in soul, with, yeah, that crazy haircut. I know I'm not saying much that's specific, but a. I always find it so hard to write about films (I keep doing it though, dammit!) and b. Javier kind of leaves me without words in No Country. He's just...effing amazing.
Why he might win: Super frontrunner!!!! Won almost every critics' award, the Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA. In the probable Best Picture winner.
Why he might not: Ben Affleck stuffs the vote box? My host mom from Spain who hated him (I don't know why. He brings your country fame. And Oscars!) convinces everyone to vote against him? I can only think of one actual reason - the Academy pulls an Alan Arkin and gives it to Hal Holbrook. But Into the Wild doesn't have nearly the support with the Academy that Little Miss Sunshine did... and Holbrook hasn't been thought of as a threat like Arkin was.

Will win: JavBar.
Might win: Anyone except Bardem would be extremely shocking, but Holbrook would leave me less shocked than anyone else after last year.
Dark horse: Affleck's clearly got his legions of fans, but it comes down to the fact that his film was just too small.
The snubbed: Of the ones Oscar might have noticed, primarily Tommy Lee Jones in No Country for Old Men and Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood. Like I said, though, Oscar picked really great nominees here (all of them are in my top 10 Supporting Actors, or rather would be if I considered Casey supporting), and thank God John Travolta didn't get in here.

personal acting finalists '07

20 in each category in alpha order, as to not give much away. I hope I've made both interesting and viable choices. The ones I haven't seen: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Talk to Me, Things We Lost in the Fire, We Own the Night, The Great Debaters, Paris je t'aime, and Black Book, most notably...

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination...
Casey Affleck, Gone Baby Gone
Christian Bale, Rescue Dawn
Josh Brolin, No Country for Old Men
Steve Buscemi, Interview
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Chris Cooper, Breach
Russell Crowe, American Gangster
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Jude Law, Breaking and Entering
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
James MacAvoy, Atonement
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Ulrich Muhe, The Lives of Others
Gordon Pinsent, Away from Her
Brad Pitt, The Assassination...
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Enchanted (okay, I'll ruin this one for you, because it's pretty fucking obvious: she's winning Best Actress from me.)
Juliette Binoche, Breaking and Entering
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Jodie Foster, The Brave One
Katherine Heigl, Knocked Up
Ashley Judd, Bug
Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding
Laura Linney, Jindabyne
Laura Linney, The Savages
Anamaria Marinca, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
Rose McGowan, Planet Terror
Sienna Miller, Factory Girl
Sienna Miller, Interview
Ellen Page, Juno
Christina Ricci, Black Snake Moan
Dakota Blue Richards, The Golden Compass
Belen Rueda, The Orphanage
Tang Wei, Lust, Caution

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (kind of a weird year.......)
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
John Carroll Lynch, Zodiac
Jeff Daniels, The Lookout
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Robert De Niro, Stardust
Robert Downey Jr., Zodiac
Morgan Freeman, Gone Baby Gone
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
James Marsden, Enchanted
Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Superbad
Armin Mueller-Stahl, Eastern Promises
Jeremy Piven, Smokin' Aces
Paul Rudd, Knocked Up
Ed Sanders, Sweeney Todd
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Justin Timberlake, Alpha Dog (JUUUSTIN.)
Christopher Walken, Hairspray (anyone that would nom Travolta over him is ON CRACK.)
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Steve Zahn, Rescue Dawn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rosario Dawson, Death Proof
Jenna Fischer, Walk Hard (PAM!)
Deborra-Lee Furness, Jindabyne
Charlotte Gainsbourg, I'm Not There
Romola Garai, Atonement
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Sarah Michelle Gellar, Southland Tales
Nicole Kidman, The Golden Compass
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Kelly MacDonald, No Country for Old Men
Leslie Mann, Knocked Up
Samantha Morton, Control
Samantha Morton, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Imelda Staunton, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Kerry Washington, I Think I Love My Wife

Oscar winners from the '90s and beyond...

ouch

...who don't make my acting lineups for that year in their respective categories. Sometimes, it's because it was a fantastic year in that category and while they may have been incredible, I just don't have room for them (Mirren '06). Sometimes, it's cuz they blew hard (Connelly '01). Of course, to further procrastinate, I've included handy-dandy notes.

Best Actor
1992: Al Pacino in Scent of a Woman (horrendous. I love the Pach, but this is one of the worst Oscar wins ever. Ugh. What a joke. I like to pretend this is for his superb work in Glengarry Glen Ross the same year...shh, let me pretend)
1993: Tom Hanks in Philadelphia (I adore this performance but it is a very crowded year)
1998: Roberto Benigni in Life is Beautiful (almost ruined the film. Another horrendous win)
2002: Adrien Brody in The Pianist (not offensive like Pacino or Benigni, but not great either. Probably the worst in his category, and so far below Cage, Day-Lewis, and Nicholson that it's not even funny.)
2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote (fantastic but no room in a crowded year)

Best Actress
1994: Jessica Lange in Blue Sky (a joke, and an awful win)
1995: Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking (I will admit to not being as big a fan of this performance as others. I do like it, however, but I have no room for it. '95 rocks in terms of actresses)
1997: Helen Hunt in As Good as It Gets (I do not find this the "worst Best Actress win ever" like it was recently voted. In fact, it's quite a great comedic performance. But 1997 is very crowded, and at least eight others TOWER over her)
2000: Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich (Quite good, just misses my lineup)
2001: Halle Berry in Monster's Ball (Not "an abortion" like some have called it, but least of the nominees. Nowhere near my lineup.)
2002: Nicole Kidman in The Hours (great and just misses my lineup, but probably the least great of her works in that fantastic 01-04 period of hers)
2004: Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby (great, but the year is incredibly high in quality and she isn't really anywhere near my lineup)
2006: Helen Mirren in The Queen (amazing in an UNBELIEVABLE year)

Best Supporting Actor
1991: Jack Palance in City Slickers (or, I dunno. I might nominate him. This year, in this category, is EMPTY.)
1992: Gene Hackman in Unforgiven (only if I count the Glengarry boys as individual units instead of tying them all for first...at any rate, great performance)
1993: Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive (yeah I don't know what they were thinking there)
1996: Cuba Gooding Jr. in Jerry Maguire (ditto?)
1997: Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting (not bad. Not anywhere near my lineup.)
1998: James Coburn in Affliction (see above...but slightly closer to my lineup)
1999: Michael Caine in The Cider House Rules (not bad, but well below his other nominees. However, I adore his speech from this year!)
2001: Jim Broadbent in Iris (I love him, and he makes it for Moulin Rouge!)
2005: George Clooney in Syriana (good, but not quite Oscar-worthy)
2006: Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine (just...wha? He was only like the third-best male supporting role in his own movie.)

Best Supporting Actress
1996: Juliette Binoche in The English Patient (great, and I have McDormand in Supporting because I'm weird like that...Binoche is my #6 so if I ever put McDormand in lead she'll be on the list. Great performance)
1997: Kim Basinger in L.A. Confidential (great...but there were five greater)
1999: Angelina Jolie in Girl Interrupted (not very good)
2000: Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock (NONE of the nominees this year would make my lineup. Harden comes closest, I think. Pretty good.)
2001: Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind (sucked. big. time.)
2004: Cate Blanchett in The Aviator (not more than mediocre, in a year very weak in this category she comes nowhere near it for me)

that's all?

I changed Best Supporting Actor '06 again

The year really isn't nearly as empty as most say.

1. Clive Owen for Inside Man
2. Alec Baldwin for The Departed
3. Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls
4. Robert Downey Jr. for A Scanner Darkly
5. Steve Carell for Little Miss Sunshine
6. Michael Sheen for The Queen
7. Doug Jones for Pan's Labyrinth
8. Michael Caine for Children of Men
9. Ben Affleck for Hollywoodland
10. Greg Kinnear for Little Miss Sunshine

I'm on a roll! Best Supporting Actor

Analyzing: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd he get nominated?: He's got a good role (drug addict! cursin' grandpa!) in an Oscar-supported film.
Pros: A very respected actor who never won an Oscar. AMPAS may go Little Miss Sunshine-crazy.
Cons: Not the frontrunner. I'm still not exactly sure what the hell made him better than Carell or Kinnear, and my guess is many others aren't either. No precursor awards.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yes, but it's ridiculous that people are predicting him now just because he won the BAFTA. Jake Gyllenhaal won the BAFTA last year when he was clearly the best in his category, and he still couldn't win at the Oscars.

Analyzing: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd he get nominated: Critical approval + Kate Winslet's pre-ordained place in the Best Actress race
Pros: Comeback kid. The fact that he could get nominated for this role (and virtually unseen movie) alone is telling. Critical raves. Critics awards.
Cons: Not the frontrunner at all - many weren't even sure if he'd get in. Movie is tiny. Role is (really) unsympathetic.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Only if there's some crazy vote splitting.

Analyzing: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd he get nominated: Baity role! Man-tears!
Pros: The kind of role AMPAS loves. Critics awards, including NBR. The movie clearly had more support from AMPAS than we thought.
Cons: Performance often dismissed as just "running and screaming" (it's not, but it's the least of the nominees anyway). Most didn't think he was going to even be nominated.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Again, only if there's some crazy vote splitting.

Analyzing: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd he get nominated: Comeback kid in a flashy, scene-stealing role in a Best Picture frontrunner (well, we all thought it was, anyway.)!
Pros: See "how'd he get nominated." Scene-stealing = shades of Catherine Zeta-Jones in Chicago. Relatively baity role (drug addict!). Globe, SAG, and critics awards.
Cons: Backlash - both against him and Dreamgirls in general. Norbit...though it made an assload of money so it wasn't really an embarassment.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yup. A big one, too.

Analyzing: Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd he get nominated: "Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe fuck yourself."
Pros: Support for The Departed. That dialogue! Comeback kid, sorta.
Cons: Um, there's no way he was the best performance in The Departed. He was a surprise nominee - most of these don't win. Still the perception of him as "Marky Mark."
Basically, any chance of winning?: If there's vote splitting between Arkin and Murphy, he's the most likely to benefit (more than Hounsou or Haley). However, it's not all that likely...but it is likely. I guess.

Analyzing: Best Supporting Actor as a whole
Who will win: I'm predicting Eddie Murphy, but Alan Arkin could get this too. And a lot of people are predicting Mark Wahlberg as well, but I just don't see it...
Who should win: For me, Eddie is the true standout in this category.
Unlucky 6th placer: Jack Nicholson for The Departed, but I hardly think he cried to himself about it.
Snubbed: With such an up-in-the-air category, I'm kinda ticked by the fact that boring performances like Arkin and Hounsou got in here. I would have preferred, out of anyone with any hype at all, Sheen in The Queen, Carell in Little Miss Sunshine (the best member of the cast is the only one without any sort of awards nomination? ridiculous), Affleck in Hollywoodland, the aforementioned Nicholson, and even the poor neglected Baldwin in the same movie. Among those with no chance, I enjoyed Caine in both his outings this year (Children of Men and The Prestige), Doug Jones and Sergio Lopez in Pan's Labyrinth, and Robert Downey Jr. in A Scanner Darkly. But, of course, my heart belongs to Clive Owen in Inside Man.
Random cool fact about this category: Um... Djimon Hounsou and Mark Wahlberg are really hot?