Casey Affleck speaks.

"Okay, whatever magazine you are. I'll show you my stomach in this really awkward picture. But don't think I'm gonna smile when I do it. *glower*"

Brotherly love.

Hmm. It would be pretty repulsive to say I have some vaguely prurient thoughts after seeing this picture, so...I won't say that.


Certainly not here, either.

Sorry, boyf. And readers. For being repulsive.

Analyzing: Best Supporting Actor.

Second verse, same as the first.

5. Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild.

I'm with many that Into the Wild is one of the most overrated films of 2007. It just...really doesn't do it for me. That said, Hal Holbrook is perhaps the best thing about it. In very little screen time, he completely transforms the movie, and perhaps even your thoughts on Chris. His portrayal is honest and layered. You'll notice I haven't said anything even remotely bad about Hal. That's because Best Supporting Actor this year is pretty fucking amazing. Good on that, Academy. On a completely unrelated note - yikes, how short are those shorts on Emile in this picture?
Why he might win: The Academy sure as heck loves their old veterans - shades of Alan Arkin?
Why he might not: Not at all the frontrunner. The Academy clearly didn't like his film as much as we all thought they would. Not Javier Bardem.

4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War.

I think a lot of people get bitchy about Charlie Wilson's War because it has Julia Roberts, Tom Hanks, and PSH, a combination of which makes a lot of people break out in hives. Truth is, it's really clever and actually says something for the most part (its flaw is that script got some of the bite taken out of it by the real-life Joanne Herring, who sued, so it's perhaps not as smart as it could be) - but the banter between the male leads alone makes it worth watching. Hanks is just great, but it's the Hoff that runs away with this show. Simply put, it's his movie, and the absolute glee as he gobbles up scenery while somehow, improbably, creating a character is palpable. Hammy? Maybe. But I ate that ham right up.
Why he might win: His film made the most money in this category. I think the Oscars just woke up to the fact that PSH is, you know, an awesome actor, and will now want to reward him forever. Just like they did with C.Blah around 2004, but PSH is way better than boring ol' C.Blah...
Why he might not: This is his film's only nomination. He's the only previous winner and in a category with the potentially snubbed in the past, that hurts him badly. Not Javier Bardem.

3. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton.

Tom Wilkinson is easily one of the best actors working today. Wilkinson + baguettes + crazy = YES! That voice brings gravitas. Is he insane, or is he the only one in this movie that's actually woken up? This isn't a particularly original thought, but he is so much like Peter Finch in Network. And that, my friends, is a very good thing to be.
Why he might win: In a Best Picture nominee. The Academy loves 'em old and British.
Why he might not: No other precursors. Not Javier Bardem.

2. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of That Guy By The Other Guy.

And here we have the year's honorary Egregious Category Fraud nomination (Foxx [in supporting, obviously] 04, Gyllenhaal 05, Blanchett 06) where an absolutely unquestionable lead gets thrown in supporting. That's not to diminish Affleck's achievement, however. The character is completely annoying at first, but he just portrays his need to be liked so badly that we feel for him nevertheless. The way his obsession with Jesse James gets played is simply great as well. Robert Ford is incredibly complex, and Affleck nails every nuance and character trait. He's utterly mesmirizing to watch as well; kid's got charisma. I know I'm a huge fan of Ben Affleck, and I do think he's a good actor, but Casey put him in his place to a ridiculous extent in this movie. Sort of related - Casey's fans are the second most annoying this year (first are Marion's, duh). I have no problems with people liking him, as clearly I do too. But do you always have to put down the front-runner and say "IF YOU SAW CASEY AND THINK JAVIER IS BETTER, YOU ARE A STUPID MORON!!!!!!" No. You don't. It's also very annoying that whenever someone lists Javier as their preferred winner they go "DID YOU SEE JESSE JAMES??????????" Anyway. Rock on, Casey.
Why he might win: He clearly has legions of fans. The critics awards Javier Bardem didn't win, he did.
Why he might not: His film made very little money. Not Javier Bardem.

1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men.

What is Anton Chigurh? Is he a serial killer? A madman? A drug lord? Or is he not something human at all, but merely a symbol of something else - death? evil? Only a master could play such an inspecific role and get it to feel completely like an actual person, and Javier Bardem absolutely does that. What's more, he adds tons of humor into the role, somehow, and even makes you feel a squeeze sorry for him in the last scene. I know Javier Bardem is a dashing, handsome Spanish man, but now all I can see him as is a crazed killer, completely lacking in soul, with, yeah, that crazy haircut. I know I'm not saying much that's specific, but a. I always find it so hard to write about films (I keep doing it though, dammit!) and b. Javier kind of leaves me without words in No Country. He's just...effing amazing.
Why he might win: Super frontrunner!!!! Won almost every critics' award, the Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA. In the probable Best Picture winner.
Why he might not: Ben Affleck stuffs the vote box? My host mom from Spain who hated him (I don't know why. He brings your country fame. And Oscars!) convinces everyone to vote against him? I can only think of one actual reason - the Academy pulls an Alan Arkin and gives it to Hal Holbrook. But Into the Wild doesn't have nearly the support with the Academy that Little Miss Sunshine did... and Holbrook hasn't been thought of as a threat like Arkin was.

Will win: JavBar.
Might win: Anyone except Bardem would be extremely shocking, but Holbrook would leave me less shocked than anyone else after last year.
Dark horse: Affleck's clearly got his legions of fans, but it comes down to the fact that his film was just too small.
The snubbed: Of the ones Oscar might have noticed, primarily Tommy Lee Jones in No Country for Old Men and Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood. Like I said, though, Oscar picked really great nominees here (all of them are in my top 10 Supporting Actors, or rather would be if I considered Casey supporting), and thank God John Travolta didn't get in here.

personal acting finalists '07

20 in each category in alpha order, as to not give much away. I hope I've made both interesting and viable choices. The ones I haven't seen: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Talk to Me, Things We Lost in the Fire, We Own the Night, The Great Debaters, Paris je t'aime, and Black Book, most notably...

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination...
Casey Affleck, Gone Baby Gone
Christian Bale, Rescue Dawn
Josh Brolin, No Country for Old Men
Steve Buscemi, Interview
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Chris Cooper, Breach
Russell Crowe, American Gangster
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Jude Law, Breaking and Entering
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
James MacAvoy, Atonement
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Ulrich Muhe, The Lives of Others
Gordon Pinsent, Away from Her
Brad Pitt, The Assassination...
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Enchanted (okay, I'll ruin this one for you, because it's pretty fucking obvious: she's winning Best Actress from me.)
Juliette Binoche, Breaking and Entering
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Jodie Foster, The Brave One
Katherine Heigl, Knocked Up
Ashley Judd, Bug
Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding
Laura Linney, Jindabyne
Laura Linney, The Savages
Anamaria Marinca, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
Rose McGowan, Planet Terror
Sienna Miller, Factory Girl
Sienna Miller, Interview
Ellen Page, Juno
Christina Ricci, Black Snake Moan
Dakota Blue Richards, The Golden Compass
Belen Rueda, The Orphanage
Tang Wei, Lust, Caution

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (kind of a weird year.......)
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
John Carroll Lynch, Zodiac
Jeff Daniels, The Lookout
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Robert De Niro, Stardust
Robert Downey Jr., Zodiac
Morgan Freeman, Gone Baby Gone
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
James Marsden, Enchanted
Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Superbad
Armin Mueller-Stahl, Eastern Promises
Jeremy Piven, Smokin' Aces
Paul Rudd, Knocked Up
Ed Sanders, Sweeney Todd
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Justin Timberlake, Alpha Dog (JUUUSTIN.)
Christopher Walken, Hairspray (anyone that would nom Travolta over him is ON CRACK.)
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Steve Zahn, Rescue Dawn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rosario Dawson, Death Proof
Jenna Fischer, Walk Hard (PAM!)
Deborra-Lee Furness, Jindabyne
Charlotte Gainsbourg, I'm Not There
Romola Garai, Atonement
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Sarah Michelle Gellar, Southland Tales
Nicole Kidman, The Golden Compass
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Kelly MacDonald, No Country for Old Men
Leslie Mann, Knocked Up
Samantha Morton, Control
Samantha Morton, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Imelda Staunton, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Kerry Washington, I Think I Love My Wife