When it comes to the Oscars, some people can't win.

This year, because Kate Winslet actually you know, admitted she wanted an Oscar, and seems to be rather enthusiastically "campaigning" for it in that she goes on talk shows to promote her movie and gives lovely speeches when she wins the precursor awards, she's just a whore that doesn't care about the quality of her acting and is only in it for awards.

Last year, because Julie Christie didn't seem all that enthusiastic during her acceptance speeches and didn't run around on every magazine cover and talk show, well, clearly she has no respect for award ceremonies and didn't deserve an Oscar.

Really. There's no way some people can win, when it comes to these kind of things. (big eye roll)

Analyzing: You guessed it...Best Actress.

Whole lot louder and a whole lot worse (that wasn't intended to describe #5 and #4 on this list, but as it so happens...).

5. Marion Cotillard, La vie en rose.

When I first saw La vie en rose, I thought the movie was terrible but Marion was okay; she had some good scene work but it wasn't cohesive. Then, I took a re-view and - yikes, what was I thinking there? What is the Academy thinking? What are all her fans thinking? This performance is tremendously loud and showy but it brings us - or at least me - absolutely nowhere emotionally. To be fair, it's partially the film's fault, absolutely destroying any chance she had of creating a cohesive character, but she still wasn't any good. Yeah, I guess she "transformed," through about eighty pounds of makeup (to be fair, that nomination was completely deserved). She never, ever bought me into the emotional life of this character. "Bonus" bad points for having the most annoying fans of the year.
Why she might win: Won the Globe and BAFTA. Her fans are very...enthusiastic. She's the one that probably got her film those extra Oscar nominations. Yes, as everyone points out, she's gorgeous and extremely charming in real life. Oscar loves a big showy biopic performance.
Why she might not: Still not the frontrunner, no matter what the Cotillard fans keep friggin' saying. Go away already. In a foreign film. In most direct Christie vs. Cotillard fights, Christie wins (NBR, SAG, BFCA, critics awards - she only got the BAFTA away from Christie, and they do love foreign performances and clearly loved La vie en rose).

4. Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

In my humble opinion, this nomination is purely symbolic. It means that Cate Blanchett is the new Meryl Streep - not in terms of acting ability, but as far as the Academy goes, she will get nominated for anything she does in the future, no matter what the quality. Yikes. Again, what was the Academy thinking? I don't think Blanchett here is as bad as Marion is, though. She's clearly having fun with her totally ridiculous role. I mean, when you're given lines to deliver like "all my bitches wear my collars" (that aren't meant to be ironic) and you sort of pull it off, that takes skill. That said, in the first Elizabeth movie C.Blah totally had nuance and fire. I get where the obsession with her in that movie comes from, even if she's not my personal win. But here? It was totally empty. She screams a lot, and wears fantastic giant outfits, but can't command the screen, nevertheless the wind, and nevertheless - thank God - a win.
Why she might win: She's Cate Blanchett. According to the crazies on her IMDb message board, the Academy "will feel that they owed her for the first Elizabeth movie and reward her for this one." Apparently they also want to "reward Cate Blanchett in lead." The movie basically exists to get her an Oscar nomination.
Why she might not: No precursors. Pretty much universally acknowledged as the worst nominee with the least chances of winning. If they really wanna vote for Cate, they'll vote for her in I'm Not There, which is absolutely without a doubt the better performance.

3. Ellen Page, Juno.

Tremendous jump in quality. I really didn't like Page at all in Hard Candy, in a horrendous role that was both overwritten and underwritten but that she really added nothing to. So when I heard raves about her in Juno, and saw the preview, I wasn't terribly excited. It looked like another Garden State, which I hated for its need to be incredibly hip and its lack of profundity. But then I saw Juno and, miracle of miracles: it was great. And so was Ellen Page. Maybe the reason the film's screenplay works as well as it does is because of her performance. Given bizarre dialogue, she completely pulls it off and sounds totally natural. She doesn't ever mug for attention, like other actors and actresses in comedy often do; she just says the lines pitch-perfectly. And yes, she is hilarious, but at the same time, she somehow manages to get across the idea that, at times, Juno just uses her snarkiness and slang as a defense mechanism. But the best parts of her performance, for me, are her less comedic moments, and more dramatic ones, like when she is in the bed with Paulie toward the end of the film, right after she's had her child. In these scenes, we see Juno's depth - was this what she was using her sarcasm to defend against? Though she's a smart-aleck and kind of an ass, we really feel for her.
Why she might win: Her movie made the most money - by farrrrr (the other movies are fucking small) - of all the nominees in this category. Newcomer who everyone seems to like. Playing the title character in a Best Picture nominee never hurts. Juno had more support than we thought (Director?). Roger Ebert's on her side!
Why she might not: Not the frontrunner. Failed to win the Globe. Juno backlash?

2. Julie Christie, Away from Her.

I am of two minds about Away from Her. First, I'm in awe that someone as young as Sarah Polley could pull off such an incredibly mature, deftly measured film. On the other hand, I'm a wee bit like "Sarah? Are you alive in there? You're not even thirty. Your films are already a wee bit stagnant. Show some passion dammit!" One thing I've never been of two minds about in Away from Her, though, is the magnificent Julie Christie. True, I, like many, may have been drawn in by her mere gloriousness, but I do think it's an absolutely wonderful performance. The mixture of strength, resignation, and utter terror against what she faces is simply fascinating and well-layered. And I don't see how people call her performance "boring" or "staid;" again, maybe it's just because of her magical fairy dust, but Julie Christie just sparkles on screen. She's got it, baby. She's had it for over forty years, and she ain't losing it now. That said - her performance had (way) more to it than that "I'd like you to make love to me, and then I'd like you to leave..." scene. It's the "*plate smash* EVERYTHING!" of 2007. Please show us something different!
Why she might win: Frontrunner. She's Julie Christie, legend and icon. Baity role. You know she got her film that Screenplay nomination.
Why she might not: Marion Cotillard's hype. I really don't think she gives a shit about the Oscars, at all.

1. Laura Linney, The Savages.

Laura Linney doesn't act. She simply is. That's the only excuse I can think of when it comes to her lack of Oscar love. She's just too natural. Oscar loves 'em showy or baity. They need a hook. They don't usually like normal if flawed characters - real characters, like the ones Linney excels at portraying. It's no different in The Savages. She doesn't just know this character, she is this character. I know this sounds stupid and generic, but it's true. The Savages wouldn't work without the psychological insight she (and to be fair, Hoffman and Bosco) provides to her character. And though Wendy Savage is prickly, neurotic, and has self-esteem issues, Linney stops her from being a downer with her wit and perfect comedic timing. Ahhhh, I love her. She is a national treasure.
Why she might win: Um...she's been popping up on those ballots they keep showing us with surprising frequency. She's the only American in this group. She's Laura Linney, dammit!!!
Why she might not: Not the frontrunner, and failed to get any precursors at all (I figured her chances were dead when she missed the Indie Spirit nom). Her nomination was an absolute shock - when the heck is the last time the shock nominee won the Oscar?

Will win: Normally, I'd say Christie. But all those "OMG LOOK AT THE SECRET OSCAR BALLOTS!!!!" things keep coming out, and Cotillard gets mentioned depressingly often (though everyone keeps saying "I don't think she'll win, but I voted for her anyway"). I'm gonna go with Cotillard and hope I'm wrong.
Might win: Christie, though, is probably still the frontrunner for a reason.
Dark horse: I think the money thing (and the Best Picture nomination thing) might come into play for Ellen Page. These other films are teeeeeeeny.
The snubbed: AMY FUCKING ADAMS. If we're going with badly-reviewed movies in Best Actress, Jodie Foster in The Brave One trumps Cate Blanchett times a billion. I didn't love Angelina Jolie but I would have been way happier to see her get nominated than Cate Blanchett. And of course, there are the performances that are so good but that horrify me in their lack of any precursor mentions...

You know what article is kind of stupid?

This one.

I'm not just saying that because I prefer the "will win" performances to the "might win" performances. It's just...written really stupidly. Michael Clayton is nominated for Best Picture, OMG George Clooney will win!!!! Well...so is There Will Be Blood ._.

You know you want it.

Hey, Academy. Remember that time you gave Jennifer Connelly the Oscar over four performances that completely towered over her, while she was Razzie-worthy? And remember how you didn't give Martin Scorsese an Oscar until 2006? And remember how you didn't give Spike Lee an Oscar ever? And remember how you only gave Lost in Translation and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Best Original Screenplay? And remember how Bill Murray didn't win for the former? And how Scarlett Johansson wasn't even nominated? Well, if you do this little favor for me, I will forgive you for all this shit.

PS. Christie will do too.
PPS. Or Page, too. I guess.
PPPS. Please, not Marion. (Though I'm prepared to accept it.)
PPPPS. If Cate Blanchett upsets here, I am officially throwing something at the TV.

Which do you think will be worse?

If Marion Cotillard wins the Oscar or if she loses it? I'm sure at least 10% of the reason I dislike that performance so is her incredibly obnoxious, beyond-disrespectful team of supporters. If you don't think Marion gave the greatest performance of all time, you are SO WRONG. Also, La vie en rose was an AMAZING movie, that has given us an ACTING GENIUS. Also, Marion deserved an Oscar for Love Me If You Dare. Of course! Julie Christie is an absolute hack who does nothing in Away from Her except stare. MARION COTILLARD HAS BEEN IN OVER 35 FILMS!!!!!!! Jesus Christ. I've never met a single non-crazed Marion fan. A lot of Christie and Page fans can admit they liked the other two, they just liked their candidate more. But as for Marion fans - every other performance this year was crap. MARION IS THE CHOSEN ONE!!!!!

which is worse?

Bitter, overconfident Julie Christie fans or smug, obnoxious Marion Cotillard fans?

TOTALLY MODEST LAURA LINNEY FANS FTW!

Errr. Hey there New York Times.

So I'm reading your breakthrough performance edition. The pictures, of course, are both very strange and very gorgeous. Some of these are actual breakthrough stars, while others, I could argue, had their breakthrough years ago (hasn't every year been Sienna Miller's "breakthrough year" since like 2003?). They're all pretty debatable, though. But...but...but. You have Julie Christie in your "breakthrough"? JULIE CHRISTIE??? You do know, she won an Oscar. In 1965.

Oh, and above? The McAvoy. Just because.

why can't we be friends, why can't we be friends

^ Julie just wants to ignore all the mean things these people are saying about her

Julie Christie.

Marion Cotillard.

Why is it that the supporters of either of these ladies cannot support their respective choice without constantly bashing the other? Look, I know whose side I'm on. In my quest (...) to see all the big movies of 2007, I watched both Away from Her and La vie en rose again. Away from Her holds up just as well as it did in the early part of this year; La vie en rose, while always a horrible movie, now no longer enchants me through its lead performance either. Goodness, Cotillard sure was... trying, wasn't she? But just because I support Christie doesn't mean I'm going to perpetually bash Cotillard all the time.

One thing I don't understand is how both of them are locks for Oscar nominations. When I left for Spain, back on September 1, both their buzz was dead. Oh well. Also, can people stop saying stupid things like "the Academy isn't going to give the Oscar to an old person 2 years in a row"? From 1997 up to and including 2005, they gave the Best Actress Oscar to a (relatively) hot (relatively) young thing. Who's to say they won't give it to a hot old thing two years in a row?

Cate looks a little deranged in this picture

Is it just me, or did Cate go from one of Oscar's most neglected to one of its most loved? Especially considering she's getting nuts buzz for both The Golden Age (though the backlash has started for that already, hooray!) and I'm Not There. I swear to God, if the Oscar Best Actress lineup has both Cate and Keira, no matter how good they are (though I shouldn't say that...), and no Julie Christie, I will cry. I will cry a lot.

...god, the Oscars. They make the most sane among us nuts.

July awards

So the boyf is one of those guys that sees most movies, even the small and "insignificant" indie ones (and errr. sometimes he downloads them. don't look at him like that!). At his place, I was able to see the 14080846086 movies I've missed so far this year. Hooray. Major nominations at this point in time:

Best Picture
Breaking and Entering

Grindhouse
Jindabyne

Ratatouille *
Zodiac

Have I mentioned that Ratatouille is awesome yet? RATATOUILLE IS AWESOME. The rest of the movies are pretty damn good too.


Best Director

everyone, Grindhouse * (I miiiight need to split this up. It's not really fair. =/)
David Fincher, Zodiac
William Friedkin, Bug
Anthony Minghella, Breaking and Entering

Sarah Polley, The Sweet Hereafter

Yeah, I really need to split up the Grindhouse directors.


Best Actor
Steve Buscemi, Interview
Chris Cooper, Breach
Jude Law, Breaking and Entering *
Ulrich Muhe, The Lives of Others
Gordon Pinsent, Away from Her

I know, like half these guys are "technically" 2006...


Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her *

Marion Cotillard, La vie en rose
Ashley Judd, Bug
Laura Linney, Jindabyne
Sienna Miller, Factory Girl/Interview

A lineup of OWNAGE. It looks like another good year for actresses - I already have 13 that are worthy of consideration! I consolidated Miller's performances, which I never do, because I didn't want to kick Judd out cuz she was so damn good. Speaking of Sienna, when the hell did she turn into an awesome actress?! If this lineup stays the same at the end of the year, I'll be pretty darn happy (so basically, it can only get better). Cotillard was indeed great, but she is highly overrated.


Best Supporting Actor

John Carroll Lynch, Zodiac
Jeff Daniels, The Lookout

Robert Downey Jr., Zodiac
Jeremy Piven, Smokin' Aces *
Paul Rudd, Knocked Up

empty lolz. Yes, I'm serious about Piven (he's awesome, but if that's the best we get by the end of the year...well. Oh, and Robert Downey Jr. is officially in my Fairly Holy Quadrangle of Awesome [him, Bill Murray, Alan Rickman, Bruce Campbell]).

Best Supporting Actress
Rosario Dawson, Grindhouse (Death Proof)
Deborra-Lee Furness, Jindabyne *
Leslie Mann, Knocked Up
Imelda Staunton, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Kerry Washington, I Think I Love My Life

Go see Jindabyne now. SO GOOD. Ms. Hugh Jackman really proves herself ;) At least two of the others are just fantastic too, but two of the others I fully expect/hope to be gone by the end of the year.