EW.

Anne Hathaway's performance in Bride Wars, you do NOT DESERVE the intro music of "So What." Which is like THE BEST SONG EVER.


Also LOL, Kristin Stewart in Twilight beat Kate Winslet in The Reader.

If you haven't figured it out...

Sorry, but I don't think there's going to be one big Oscar post this year. :( There wasn't all that much to snark on anyway. Yaaaay Kate won an Oscar, Anne Hathaway is an attention whore, JAI HOOOOOOOOO, Hugh Jackman is charming but was on screen for like .02 seconds, etc.

Errr, yeah, about that Oscar post.

Ummm, not sure it's coming until the end of next week-ish... which is bad because this seems to have been an Oscars that everyone forgot all about spectacularly quickly. Oh well.

Kate Winslet still has an Oscar. Hosea is still the winner of Top Chef. So, you know, life's good.

Technical difficulties (not really).

So it's going to be an excessively busy week for me, and I don't really have time to cover the Oscars in as much depth as I'd like until the end of the week. So I promise I will get to them, but it will more than likely be, like, Friday afternoon, when no one cares any more. Oh well. ;_;

I will leave you with a picture of oompa loompa doompity dawesome:

I LOVE THIS. Except Meryl, girl, I love you, but give it back to its rightful owner this year.

Oh, and

Yes, Anne, this was adorable. I will continue to irrationally dislike you (well, actually, it's not irrational, I find you completely annoying and like a twit personality-wise, and a completely untalented actress. Yes, you were fine in Rachel Getting Married and I don't begrudge your acting, but if that role was played by an actress it was trendy to dislike as opposed to one it's trendy to like - like Natalie Portman or Scarlett Johansson - I wonder how it would have been reviewed). Hugh Jackman, you get a B-. You tried - and goddamn it you freakin' smoldered with your hotness - but sorry, I just need some snarky-ass Jon Stewart jokes to get me through the ceremony. It didn't help that you were part of the most upset-less Oscar ceremony in, like, years. Oh, and speaking of hosting...


Tina, you looked AMAAAAAZING (see what happens when you don't wear boring-ass black for once?!) and yes, you were the best presenter along with Steve Martin. But oh my God, people, people, people, she does not need to host next year!!! Like Tina isn't already hyped enough by the media.

Judd Apatow, congrats, that short about the comedies of 2008 was the best thing you've done so far. Hilarious.

You'll get the rest of my snark on Friday or so...

Kate WINSlet.

And thank God for that!

More tomorrow. Yeesh that was a boring ceremony. There's hardly anything to snark on. ;_;

Probably not for real, but...

Here's an article about the "leaked" Oscar winners, and it's got the supposed leaked list.

I don't believe this for a second, but if those were the results, I wouldn't mind at all. I didn't like Amy Adams at ALL in Doubt, but I can just pretend it's for Enchanted and possibly giggle at the undoubtedly sour look that will pop up on Penelope's face. In Bruges winning Best Original Screenplay would be like, the greatest thing ever, next to KATE WINNING! So, I do hope it's true, but the chances are like 99% that it's not.

Major Oscar predix.

I reserve the right to change these up to the ceremony. :P

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
It's got all the hype and many of the precursors. Barring some huge upset, it's got this in the bag. The Curious Case... will continue its trend of being nominated for tons of big things but winning none of those big things.
Alternate: Milk
I've seen/Should win, with my limited viewings in mind: Milk, The Curious Case... (yes, I watched it online a little while ago, and OMG SOOOO BORING and just... not right at all, tonally), and The Reader / Milk
Snubbed: Wall-E

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
See above.
Alternate: David Fincher
I've seen/Should win: Daldry, Fincher, Van Sant / Van Sant
Snubbed: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
It's close with him and Sean Penn. But I think, in the end, the "underdog" story will truly appeal to the voters, those saps. ;) It will be CLOSE, though.
Alternate: Sean Penn
I've seen/Should win: Penn and Pitt / PENN.
Snubbed: Robert Downey Jr., Iron Man. Not kidding.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader
KING OF KINGS! AND LORD OF LORDS!!!!
Alternate: Meryl Streep
I've seen/Should win: Hathaway, Leo, Streep, Winslet. Whoo, almost done! / Winslet
Snubbed: Rebecca Hall or Scarlett Johansson, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I finally saw all of Happy-Go-Lucky, and Sally Hawkins does not deserve to be in this category, sorry.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
The only real, true lock.
Alternate: Don't need one, but PSH
I've seen/Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Ledger
Snubbed: Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married and Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Meh? Good, nomination-worthy, but not OMG GIVE HER AN OSCAR RTM-worthy at all. At least, if they give her an Oscar now, they can get it out of the way. And ha ha, she's not going to get her boyfriend to present it to her. I hope the inane little thing cries about it and not in a good way. Wow, I'm so mean! I can still see any of the nominees here upsetting; Pene's not a huge frontrunner.
Alternate: Viola Davis, Doubt
I've seen/Should win: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson / Davis
Snubbed: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (though I have her in lead)

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
The film will more than likely pick up its only major award here.
Alternate: Wall-E
I've seen / Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Wall-E
Snubbed: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
Get used to "Jai Ho," people. You're going to hear it A LOT on Oscar night when those guys go up to get their 500000 trophies.
Alternate: The Reader
I've seen / Should win: The Curious Case..., Doubt, The Reader / out of those, um, The Reader I guess
Snubbed: Revolutionary Road

Those were my long predictions for the major categories... I'll have a full list up in a few days.

I saw Revolutionary Road, whee!

How long until the Republicans claim it's one of the top ten conservative movies of all time because April dies due to a botched abortion?

It was okay. It packed a hell of a punch, but parts were unintentionally funny (maybe intentional to lessen the tension?). Mendes' American Beauty was like that, but at the end of American Beauty, I absolutely got the feeling that this was a movie that loved life. Revolutionary Road, um, not so much. Kate was as fantastic as she usually is, even with dialogue that was at times stifled and motivational-speaker-y, especially at the beginning of the movie, but I found Leo completely unbelievable, sad to say. He was shockingly bad at the beginning of the movie, specifically, because he just seemed to go into "DOUCHE" mode and hit that note over and over again. Michael Shannon shocked me with how much his character was like the Joker, though he didn't leave me flabbergasted like Heath.

I did like it more than I seem to indicate here. B or so?


And now I have some homework to do. On a Friday night, I know. BOOOOOOO

Yay, Kate!!!!

I don't know how I missed this article.

I'm not a lesbian, but I sure as hell agree with them here. My only problem with Kate is that she looks way older than she is; I find it hard to believe she's only 33, but part of that is the fact that she's been around, giving amazing performances, for fifteen years. Oh, and here is my random listing of her performances that I've seen:

1. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

2. Heavenly Creatures

3. The Reader

4. Holy Smoke!

5. Iris

6. Little Children

7. Sense and Sensibility

8. Hamlet

9. Jude

10. Quills
11. Hideous Kinky

12. Romance and Cigarettes

13. The Holiday

14. Finding Neverland

15. Titanic

16. All the King's Men

17. The Life of David Gale

I f'love her! Seriously, she was fucking amazing in The Reader, people are just whining that it's a "make-up" award because it's a Holocaust movie and because she's finally going to win. And I really need to see Revolutionary Road ._.

I saw The Reader

Yeah, it's not Best Picture material, it's just handsomely made but without anything to make it anything special. To compare it to other Daldrys, it is The Hours and not Billy Elliot; it was sober, but all potential emotion was drained out for the most part. I guess they might have pulled the rug out from under you with the eroticism if you haven't read the book, though. Like, "Damn! Boobs! [I love how Kate is naked in everything. I love Nicole Kidman, but I can't see her pulling this role off at all. Yes, you needed to be icy, but you also needed to be fiery and openly sexy and she's not that. Whenever Nicole tries to be sexy it comes off campy, but that usually WORKS for the films she's trying for that in, like Moulin Rouge! and To Die For.] This chick is SO HOT - AAAH WAIT SHE'S A NAZI!!!" The cinematography was gorgeous.

Kate Winslet was amazing. At this point it's just redundant to say that, but she was really really awesome. It's just sad that it takes AMPAS and other critics' associations take this long to recognize her awesomeness when it's all gussied up with the Academy's favorite trappings (Holocaust! Old makeup and deglamming! Female nudity! At least her character isn't all that sympathetic, right?) as opposed to something like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. The younger kid, David Kross I think, was very good too. Ralph Fiennes was... okay. Much better in In Bruges.

SAG post-party wishful thinking.

My paint skills are amazing, I know. Hey, some of us don't have Photoshop.

I don't wanna bring back that "Emily Blunt sucks" tag but she looked 45 with her hair and makeup. Okay dress, but I feel like it fit very poorly.

Kate Winslet, you are flawless. Meryl Streep ILY and that speech was awesome but if you win this year I will have a sad. Anne Hathaway, thank you for taking my advice and going for a lip color that was not RED!!!!!, and see, you looked great.

How much can I complain about a night in which Laura, Kate, Meryl, and Tina all won? Really :)

I feel like people bitching incessantly about Slumdog Millionaire's win need to stop it, or at least not be like "OMG SO UPSETTING, I CANNOT BELIEVE THAT HAPPENED I THOUGHT THE AWARD WAS BEST CAST BAWWWW" The SAGs rarely award what's actually the best ensemble cast any more. It's basically Best Picture with a different name. It's unfortunate but it happens almost every damn year, so I dunno why people get shocked and offended every time.

More later.
ETA: Wait, no.

SAG predix!

FILMS
Best Cast: Milk (alt. Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Actor: Sean Penn (alt. Mickey Rourke)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep (alt. Kate Winslet)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (alt. don't need one but PSH)
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet (alt. Viola Davis) (yay)

TV
Best Cast, Drama: Mad Men (alt. House)
Best Cast, Comedy: 30 Rock (alt. The Office)
Best Actor, Drama: Hugh Lawrie (alt. Jon Hamm)
Best Actor, Comedy: Alec Baldwin (alt. Steve Carell)
Best Actor, TV Movie/Miniseries: Paul Giamatti (alt. Tom Wilkinson)
Best Actress, Drama: Kyra Sedgwick (alt. Sally Field)
Best Actress, Comedy: Tina Fey (alt. Christina Appelgate)
Best Actress, TV Movie/Miniseries: LAURA LINNEY! (alt. Laura Dern)

It's nice to predict my two favorite actresses WINNING something for a change :) Maybe The Office can upset too! Doubtful. =/ Ah well, 30 Rock is still amazing too.

These CRAAAAZY Oscar nominations.

At least every category has a "WUT????" moment.

Also, hey, Academy. I know you complain about how nobody watches you. Well, hey, geniuses, you've got no one to blame but yourselves this year; you had the opportunity to nominate the biggest-grossing picture of the year, which also had the precursors and reviews to back it up but was OMG A SUPERHERO MOVIE, but instead you nominated a film that made $3 million. Good job, that. I am hardly the biggest Dark Knight fan, but AMPAS screwed itself over when it comes to viewership this year; everyone's going to turn their TVs off after Best Supporting Actor. Plus now I'm mad cuz I only saw ONE Best Picture nominee, and that's likely how it will be until Oscar night. BLAAAAAH. Anyway.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Raise your hand if you thought The Reader had a snowball's chance in hell. Hey, Harvey, put your hand down in the back there, you don't count. I know I had it on my "potentials" list but if I had to rank them, it would have been #10 (1. Slumdog, 2. Button, 3. Frost/Nixon, 4. Dark Knight, 5. Milk, 6. Doubt, 7. Gran Torino, 8. Revolutionary Road, 9. Wall-E, 10. The Reader, or something like that). Damn. Though a few people have smartly pointed out that Minghella AND Pollack sympathy may have catapaulted The Reader higher. Looking at the comments about the nominations on the Carpetbagger over at the NYTimes, OMG, EVERYONE hated Benjamin Button with a passion. I think it's very very very love/hate and it won't be able to carve out a win. But hey, who knows.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Dark horse: Milk, I think Hollywood's pissed at Prop 8 for understandable reasons.
I predicted: Curious Case..., The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire 4/5

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Reaction: A round of applause for Daldry, who's gotten three Best Directing nominations from the three movies he's done. Damn. I like how his reaction to the nomination was something along the lines of "THANK YOU KATE WINSLET!!!!!!!!!!"
Will win: Danny Boyle.
Dark horse: David Fincher. I might be predicting him if apparently he wasn't a major asshole that everyone hated.
I predicted: Aronofsky, Boyle, Fincher, Howard, Nolan. 3/5

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Reaction: Not surprised Jenkins got in, but SHOCKED they left Eastwood out in the cold so harshly (Gran Torino got nothing, and Changeling very little). I'd say Penn's odds for winning racheted up with how much the Academy liked his film, but to be honest I don't know if they're going to be happy giving him a second Oscar when he clearly seems extraordinarily cavalier about the whole thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do that, but the Academy definitely won't appreciate it.
Will win: At this point I'll just say Mickey Rourke.
Dark horse: Penn.
I predicted: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke. 4/5

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Reaction: It's kind of awesome that the Academy, for once, said "FUCK YOU CATEGORY FRAUD!!!" and nominated someone where they were supposed to be in terms of category placement, at least according to what I've heard because I haven't seen the movie. If only they hadn't had a flagrant case of that every year since at least 2004 (Jamie Foxx in Collateral, Jake Gyllenhaal, Jennifer Hudson/Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Casey Affleck)... Anyway, I kind of feel more comfortable with saying Kate will win for The Reader in lead than saying Kate would have won for Revolutionary Road if she was also nominated in supporting for The Reader. Does that make sense? At any rate, GO KATE!!!! And yes, Melissa Leo climbed out of obscurity to snatch a nomination from Cate Blanchett in a movie that got 13 nominations. Girlfriend can be proud of that. Oh, and ladies and gentlemen... Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway! Puketastic. Hey, I think I'll go see that great opus of American film starring two incredibly talented young Oscar-nominated stars, Bride Wars. Again, puketastic.
Will win: ........it feels so weird to predict Kate Winslet.
Dark horse: Meryl's gonna win three someday, right? But hopefully not this one.
I predicted: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Winslet (Revolutionary Road). That's 3.5, right? :P

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Reaction: I wasn't expecting Revolutionary Road's only major Oscar nomination to be in Supporting Actor, hah, though I'm told his role was the kind of role the Academy usually loves. I'm not THAT shocked Patel was snubbed; I mean, clearly the Globes loved Slumdog too and he couldn't get in there either. Despite the general nose-in-the-air, middle-finger-brandished from AMPAS to The Dark Knight, I still think Heath's the closest thing to a lock we have this year.
Will win: Heath Ledger.
Dark horse: Don't think I need one, but Robert Downey Jr.
I predicted: Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel. 4/5

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Reaction: Nobody was probably happier this morning to see Kate Winslet be moved to leading than these five ladies. It throws the race wide open. HI JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will win: Viola Davis. It just seems like the kind of performance the Academy will love, from what I've heard. Plus the film got multiple nominations, and this win seems the most likely.
Dark horse: Penelope Cruz. And it was a tough call, but if they couldn't nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a freaking Woody Allen movie, for Original Screenplay, maybe they didn't like her movie very much.
I predicted: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet. 4/5

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E

Reaction: It's surprising Happy-Go-Lucky's script got in, but not Hawkins. Oh well. I've seen bits and pieces of her performance, and I gotta say that though I'm reserving full judgement until I see the movie, yes it was an extremely vibrant performance, but also an INCREDIBLY ANNOYING one. I'm sad that Vicky Cristina Barcelona didn't get in - it was a terrific movie and script, and WOODY ALLEN! - but thrilled for In Bruges and Wall-E. Milk's script was good, but nothing special. Like the movie. It was very good and well-made, but nothing about it particularly pushed it into the stratosphere. I gotta say that Frozen River looks sooooo fucking boring. I'm sure it's good. But I have NOOOO DESIRE to see it!
Will win: Wall-E? Please? This is more than likely wishful thinking.
Dark horse: Milk
I predicted: In Bruges, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler. 3/5

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Uh... sure? This seems like the only category without serious WTFery going on.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Dark horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I predicted: Curious Case..., Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. 4/5

So what have we learned, kiddies? The Oscars go crazy sometimes, and even snub Clint Eastwood and Cate Blanchett! I guess "Never underestimate Harvey" is the new "Never underestimate Clint Eastwood", which was probably the new "Never underestimate Harvey" to begin with, so, you know, cyclical! Oh, and never use me to bet on your Oscar pool.

Analysis part, um, glarg: Best Supporting Actress.

Amy Adams, Doubt
Pros: They snubbed her for Enchanted. In a film where she's destined to get notice. Got the precursor nominations that matter. She's Jesus.
Cons: She plays the sweet innocent again. Of the four principal characters in her film, she got the worst reviews (not that they were bad but you know). No precursor wins.
Do I think she's in? Yes but I wouldn't be surprised to see her snubbed. She is the definite fifth.

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Pros: In a Woody Allen movie. Great reviews and her buzz never died. A great role. Hollywood glamour for the red carpet.
Cons: Backlash and her buzz is finally dying down in a big way. If the foreign- and VCB-loving Globes didn't give her the award...
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Viola Davis, Doubt
Pros: She owns Meryl Streep in a scene in Doubt. That's all I need to say. (and quite a few precursors including the ones that matter. And it's a Tony-winning role already.) Extremely reliable and underappreciated character actress.
Cons: Um... from what I remember she has a small role, but it's one of those "small but knock-your-socks off" performances, so that doesn't really matter. Hasn't won tons of precursors.
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Pros: Title role and apparently a large one at that. She's gotten good reviews and several precursors.
Cons: Minus Hathaway, hype seems kind of dead around this film. No precursors that anyone would notice (SAG, BAFTA, Globes).

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: She ages in the movie. Apparently she is extremely lovable too. BFCA and SAG nominations. Reliable and underappreciated character actress.
Cons: Hype is dying down around this movie and nobody was ever really making a big deal about her to begin with. Viola Davis already fulfills their "racially diverse reliable and underappreciated character actress" slot, right?
Do I think she's in? No, but she's #6 and I wouldn't be surprised if she did make an appearance on the 22nd.

Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Fantasy girlfriend character. Very pretty and glamorous on the red carpet. The insane hype for Slumdog Millionaire.
Cons: No precursors other than BAFTA. I don't think her acting is as widely-praised as Patel's.
Do I think she's in? No.

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Pros: AMPAS likes her, and she's playing one of their all-time favorite roles, a hooker/stripper with a heart of gold. Great reviews. She's got several precursors, including winning a bunch of minor ones.
Cons: She missed out on SAG. Rourke's getting most of the attention for the movie.
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Kate Winslet, The Reader
Pros: Kate Winslet. Double Globe win. Several precursor awards. She puts on an accent and deglams/ages. Holocaust/WWII movie. Great reviews.
Cons: She hasn't won all that many of the precursors due to Penelope and Marisa. Speech backlash. Some people may put this role in leading. The film hasn't gotten tons of attention.
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Analysis Part 3: Actress.

Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Cate Blanchett. In a sure Best Picture nominee.
Cons: Very little precursor attention, including missing the Globe and SAG noms. Maybe they're as tired of her as I am? Dare to dream...
Do I think she's in? Actually, I do. Underestimate Cate Blanchett at your peril when it comes to AMPAS. I'm still shocked she didn't actually win last year.

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Pros: Great reviews. Looks great on the red carpet/hot young thing. She plays a drug addict and OMG that's so edgy from a former Disney princess or whatever. Lots of precursors, including all the important ones.
Cons: Not a sympathetic character. No one seems to be interested in her film apart from this performance. And hi, welcome to my bias talking, but "Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway"? Girl, please.
Do I think she's in? Unfortunately. I really shouldn't insult her so promiscuously when I haven't even seen the darn movie, hah.

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Pros: Mostly great reviews and she's in a Mike Leigh film. Winning at the Globes can't hurt. Many precursors (NY, LA, Boston). A lot of people find her character extremely lovable.
Cons: ...and a lot find her character extremely annoying. Snubbed by BAFTA?!?!?! And SAG. In a small film unlikely to get any other nominations. An unknown up against many big stars.
Do I think she's in? In a lineup of five, I don't, but I won't be surprised at all if she gets in over Blanchett or Jolie. She's my extremely close sixth.

Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Pros: She's a distressed mother. In a Clint Eastwood movie. Yeah. Seems to have every important precursor nomination. She's Angelina Jolie and undoubtedly brings star power. They snubbed her for A Mighty Heart last year.
Cons: Hasn't won any precursors that would get her attention. Her star power may work against her... is her snub for The Mighty Heart an indicator that AMPAS doesn't like her rather than something they feel badly for?
Do I think she's in? Yes, but it's not a sure thing.

Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Pros: Critical acclaim and a decent amount of precursors for a film so tiny.
Cons: Who in what now?
Do I think she's in? No, she's just too obscure. Though her nomination wouldn't shock me.

Kristin Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Pros: Hey, she's French, and we learned to not underestimate the French last year. A past nominee, so she may look more attractive/familiar to voters when it comes to the smaller films like Leo's or Hawkins'. Globe nom.
Cons: Film is very small and OMG has subtitles. Other than the Globe nom, she doesn't have many precursors.
Do I think she's in? No, the film is too small.

Meryl Streep, Doubt
Pros: MERYL STREEP. Hasn't missed an important precursor award.
Cons: Film and especially performance have detractors, with many saying it's nowhere near close to her work in Sophie's Choice and you know they want this girl to WORK for that third Oscar.
Do I think she's in? Yes. The win may be an uphill battle for her, but let's wait until SAG.

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Kate Winslet, y'all know she's badly overdue. Double Globe win with extremely likable speech. Lots of precursor awards.
Cons: Backlash? The film hasn't gotten tons of attention. I would have said confusion with vote splitting for The Reader, but it seems extremely clear that it's set that her role in that film is supporting while she's lead here.
Do I think she's in? Yes. And wouldn't another double win in one night be glorious? :)

Is it a bad thing to be the first BSA frontrunner?

2004 - Virginia Madsen wins the lion's share of critics' awards. At the Globes, Natalie Portman wins. At SAG, Cate Blanchett wins. At the Oscar, the voters suddenly go, "OMG Cate Blanchett never won!!! We're sorry about Elizabeth now" and give her the Oscar.

2005 - Amy Adams wins the lion's share of critics' awards. At the Globes and after, though, it's all Rachel Weisz, Rachel Weisz, Rachel Weisz, and she ends up winning the Oscar.

2006 - Jennifer Hudson wins some critics' awards, more so than the other ladies mentioned here I think, but Cate Blanchett and Rinko Kikuchi got most of the critics' awards. I think. This is probably the exception to the rule, since everyone was like "JENNIFER'S GOING TO WIN" since Day 1.

2007 - Amy Ryan wins the lion's share of critics' awards and everyone says that her race is over like two weeks into the award season. By the time the Oscars roll around, Best Supporting Actress ends up being the most exciting race of the whole night, and the unexpected Tilda Swinton gets the gold.

2008 - Penelope Cruz seems to be the early frontrunner with her many critics' awards. But Kate won the most important critics' award (BFCA) and if the foreign- and Vicky Cristina Barcelona-loving Globes didn't give Pe (I was in Spain for like four months, I can officially call her that) the prize... she's not totally out at all, but I think people overestimate her chances at this point.

When it comes to the Oscars, some people can't win.

This year, because Kate Winslet actually you know, admitted she wanted an Oscar, and seems to be rather enthusiastically "campaigning" for it in that she goes on talk shows to promote her movie and gives lovely speeches when she wins the precursor awards, she's just a whore that doesn't care about the quality of her acting and is only in it for awards.

Last year, because Julie Christie didn't seem all that enthusiastic during her acceptance speeches and didn't run around on every magazine cover and talk show, well, clearly she has no respect for award ceremonies and didn't deserve an Oscar.

Really. There's no way some people can win, when it comes to these kind of things. (big eye roll)

BAFTA Nominations.

Best Film
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

It's funny, I didn't think Milk was going to get in at all (the film struck me as very American, with all the Prop 6 stuff that was going on in the film and the Prop 8 stuff that was going on in real life), and oh DUH I should have known they would like Frost/Nixon, it's about a freaking BRITISH journalist after all. I really should have gone for The Reader over Revolutionary Road in my predictions, that was stupid of me (when in doubt with the BAFTAs, go for the more British film!).

Best British Film
Hunger
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Man on Wire
Slumdog Millionaire

You would think Slumdog Millionaire would be the frontrunner here, because it's the only one with a nomination in Best Film, but that's often not the case with BAFTA. They so crazy. I think it will win, though, just because of its domination throughout awards season and because Brits love Bollywood. As long as Mamma Mia! doesn't win, though, I'm good.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Clint Eastwood, Changeling
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

The Changeling nod makes things interesting. I know if Clint Eastwood gets in at the Oscars, I'll laugh really, really loudly over everyone that will undoubtedly have a shitfit about it. Other than that, really no surprises (Daldry's British, so I never really consider random British people showing up at the BAFTAs surprising, because there's always like 4 people like that every year).

Best Actor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

I predicted "five between Langella, Patel, Penn, Pitt, Rourke, and Sheen" so I feel pretty darn good about this one, thank you. Not really any surprises here. I think Patel's getting an Oscar nod, but in supporting.

Best Actress
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas, This Movie Title Is So Long (*wink*)
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

I like that BAFTA always corrects the category fraud that the Oscars perpetuate, hah. It's nice to see Hathaway be snubbed for once during this awards season to be honest, and it's always nice to see Cate Blanchett be snubbed for anything. I hope Winslet's double nominations here don't cost her the win, but I think most voters will go for her in The Reader if they go for her at all. Also, and I just noticed this, WHERE THE HELL IS SALLY HAWKINS?! Snubbed by the BAFTAs? Does this mean she's not as beloved as we thought????

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading

OMG! I'm sooooo thrilled Pitt got in for Burn After Reading, I thought he was fucking hilarious and awesome and he's my #2 of the year after Heath Ledger. Yeah, I haven't seen that many movies this year, but I have seen quite a few with widely-praised supporting actor turns (Tropic Thunder, Milk). Still, Heath will probably win this... not because he died, but because he deserves it.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Tilda Swinton, Burn After Reading
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Pinto? Swinton? Never change, crazy BAFTAs. Davis getting snubbed is rather shocking; I think she's far more likely to get an Oscar nom than Adams when it comes to Doubt. Though I'd love to see Amysus get nominated (geddit???); they still owe her for Enchanted!

Original Screenplay
Burn After Reading
Changeling
I've Loved You So Long
In Bruges
Milk

OMG. Burn After Reading, In Bruges, and Milk have fucking awesome screenplays. I'm QUITE surprised at some of the snubs in this category, including Happy-Go-Lucky, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and Wall-E. Damn, if Happy-Go-Lucky isn't loved by the BAFTAs, I don't know who WILL love it.

Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

On the other hand, there are really no surprises here at all, except maybe the lack of Doubt.

It bears repeating.

oh, and hey detractors of the aforementioned goddess!

Yes, I'm well aware her winning two Golden Globes doesn't mean she's going to win two Oscars. Hell, I'm still nervous that she's not going to win either. However, y'all should really stop pretending that, if Hathaway and Cruz won in Lead and Supporting, like most were predicting (including myself!), you all wouldn't be saying "HAH!!! KATE WINSLET HAS NO CHANCE AT THE OSCAR NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"