the SAG awards

Is Sandra Bullock really that pretty? Whoah. And it's kinda nice to see 30 Rock not winning everything, though Tina Fey never should have been winning "actress" awards in the first place, honestly.

Also, I've seen that "I'll be waiting for you with my legs open" clip of Penelope Cruz from Nine way too many times, gross.

Thanks, VH1.

So I'm watching VH1's The Fabulous Life or whatever they call it, which might as well be called Rich People Are Rich, and I learned that one of Penelope Cruz's Oscar dresses - and not even the one with the crazy feather bottom - took 228 hours to make. Seriously, that's over a week. Is Penelope Cruz even worth that much of your time? No.

Major Oscar predix.

I reserve the right to change these up to the ceremony. :P

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
It's got all the hype and many of the precursors. Barring some huge upset, it's got this in the bag. The Curious Case... will continue its trend of being nominated for tons of big things but winning none of those big things.
Alternate: Milk
I've seen/Should win, with my limited viewings in mind: Milk, The Curious Case... (yes, I watched it online a little while ago, and OMG SOOOO BORING and just... not right at all, tonally), and The Reader / Milk
Snubbed: Wall-E

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
See above.
Alternate: David Fincher
I've seen/Should win: Daldry, Fincher, Van Sant / Van Sant
Snubbed: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
It's close with him and Sean Penn. But I think, in the end, the "underdog" story will truly appeal to the voters, those saps. ;) It will be CLOSE, though.
Alternate: Sean Penn
I've seen/Should win: Penn and Pitt / PENN.
Snubbed: Robert Downey Jr., Iron Man. Not kidding.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader
KING OF KINGS! AND LORD OF LORDS!!!!
Alternate: Meryl Streep
I've seen/Should win: Hathaway, Leo, Streep, Winslet. Whoo, almost done! / Winslet
Snubbed: Rebecca Hall or Scarlett Johansson, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I finally saw all of Happy-Go-Lucky, and Sally Hawkins does not deserve to be in this category, sorry.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
The only real, true lock.
Alternate: Don't need one, but PSH
I've seen/Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Ledger
Snubbed: Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married and Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Meh? Good, nomination-worthy, but not OMG GIVE HER AN OSCAR RTM-worthy at all. At least, if they give her an Oscar now, they can get it out of the way. And ha ha, she's not going to get her boyfriend to present it to her. I hope the inane little thing cries about it and not in a good way. Wow, I'm so mean! I can still see any of the nominees here upsetting; Pene's not a huge frontrunner.
Alternate: Viola Davis, Doubt
I've seen/Should win: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson / Davis
Snubbed: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (though I have her in lead)

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
The film will more than likely pick up its only major award here.
Alternate: Wall-E
I've seen / Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Wall-E
Snubbed: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
Get used to "Jai Ho," people. You're going to hear it A LOT on Oscar night when those guys go up to get their 500000 trophies.
Alternate: The Reader
I've seen / Should win: The Curious Case..., Doubt, The Reader / out of those, um, The Reader I guess
Snubbed: Revolutionary Road

Those were my long predictions for the major categories... I'll have a full list up in a few days.

Analysis part, um, glarg: Best Supporting Actress.

Amy Adams, Doubt
Pros: They snubbed her for Enchanted. In a film where she's destined to get notice. Got the precursor nominations that matter. She's Jesus.
Cons: She plays the sweet innocent again. Of the four principal characters in her film, she got the worst reviews (not that they were bad but you know). No precursor wins.
Do I think she's in? Yes but I wouldn't be surprised to see her snubbed. She is the definite fifth.

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Pros: In a Woody Allen movie. Great reviews and her buzz never died. A great role. Hollywood glamour for the red carpet.
Cons: Backlash and her buzz is finally dying down in a big way. If the foreign- and VCB-loving Globes didn't give her the award...
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Viola Davis, Doubt
Pros: She owns Meryl Streep in a scene in Doubt. That's all I need to say. (and quite a few precursors including the ones that matter. And it's a Tony-winning role already.) Extremely reliable and underappreciated character actress.
Cons: Um... from what I remember she has a small role, but it's one of those "small but knock-your-socks off" performances, so that doesn't really matter. Hasn't won tons of precursors.
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Pros: Title role and apparently a large one at that. She's gotten good reviews and several precursors.
Cons: Minus Hathaway, hype seems kind of dead around this film. No precursors that anyone would notice (SAG, BAFTA, Globes).

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: She ages in the movie. Apparently she is extremely lovable too. BFCA and SAG nominations. Reliable and underappreciated character actress.
Cons: Hype is dying down around this movie and nobody was ever really making a big deal about her to begin with. Viola Davis already fulfills their "racially diverse reliable and underappreciated character actress" slot, right?
Do I think she's in? No, but she's #6 and I wouldn't be surprised if she did make an appearance on the 22nd.

Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Fantasy girlfriend character. Very pretty and glamorous on the red carpet. The insane hype for Slumdog Millionaire.
Cons: No precursors other than BAFTA. I don't think her acting is as widely-praised as Patel's.
Do I think she's in? No.

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Pros: AMPAS likes her, and she's playing one of their all-time favorite roles, a hooker/stripper with a heart of gold. Great reviews. She's got several precursors, including winning a bunch of minor ones.
Cons: She missed out on SAG. Rourke's getting most of the attention for the movie.
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Kate Winslet, The Reader
Pros: Kate Winslet. Double Globe win. Several precursor awards. She puts on an accent and deglams/ages. Holocaust/WWII movie. Great reviews.
Cons: She hasn't won all that many of the precursors due to Penelope and Marisa. Speech backlash. Some people may put this role in leading. The film hasn't gotten tons of attention.
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Is it a bad thing to be the first BSA frontrunner?

2004 - Virginia Madsen wins the lion's share of critics' awards. At the Globes, Natalie Portman wins. At SAG, Cate Blanchett wins. At the Oscar, the voters suddenly go, "OMG Cate Blanchett never won!!! We're sorry about Elizabeth now" and give her the Oscar.

2005 - Amy Adams wins the lion's share of critics' awards. At the Globes and after, though, it's all Rachel Weisz, Rachel Weisz, Rachel Weisz, and she ends up winning the Oscar.

2006 - Jennifer Hudson wins some critics' awards, more so than the other ladies mentioned here I think, but Cate Blanchett and Rinko Kikuchi got most of the critics' awards. I think. This is probably the exception to the rule, since everyone was like "JENNIFER'S GOING TO WIN" since Day 1.

2007 - Amy Ryan wins the lion's share of critics' awards and everyone says that her race is over like two weeks into the award season. By the time the Oscars roll around, Best Supporting Actress ends up being the most exciting race of the whole night, and the unexpected Tilda Swinton gets the gold.

2008 - Penelope Cruz seems to be the early frontrunner with her many critics' awards. But Kate won the most important critics' award (BFCA) and if the foreign- and Vicky Cristina Barcelona-loving Globes didn't give Pe (I was in Spain for like four months, I can officially call her that) the prize... she's not totally out at all, but I think people overestimate her chances at this point.

CROSSOVER!!!

So in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, there's a scene (I think it's even in the preview) where Javier Bardem's character invites Vicky (Rebecca Hall) and Cristina (ScarJo) to his room "to make love to them." And the entire time, of course, I'm like, "NOOOO!!! DON'T GO!!! HE'LL KILL YOU WITH THE AIR PUMP GUN THING!!!!"

... but at least he changed his hair.

Oh, as for the movie? Loved it. Maybe Woody's best since Bullets over Broadway? It's certainly better than all his stuff in the new millennium, as fond as I am of Match Point and Scoop. VCB was hot and steamy, just like Barcelona is in real life. It really captured Spain perfectly, in that it's incredibly interesting and boring as shit all at once (no, really). The cast was fantastic, and I have to disagree that Penelope was head and shoulders above the others; they all rocked (save Patty Clarkson, who was totally boring).

I'm intrigued.

Oh, and I love the title. It makes no sense. Vicky and Cristina in Barcelona? Is "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" someone's name? Plus, I love Barcelona. So, yeah, I'm pretty excited.

..."Barcelona" is one of those words that loses meaning the more you look at it.

Best Actress

Analyzing: Penelope Cruz, Volver
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd she get nominated?: Hype building for almost a year combined with the result.
Pros: The fact that she could get in with a subtitled film that didn't get other Academy support says a lot. She's hot.
Cons: They clearly didn't love the film since it was snubbed like all hell. Subtitled. "Oscar winner, Penelope Cruz?" Not Helen Mirren.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. She's coming in dead last here.

Analyzing: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd she get nominated?: She's Judi Dench.
Pros: Judi Dench. Amazing performance backed up by reviews. Film got support from nominations (Blanchett, Score, Adapted Screenplay).
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. Already has an Oscar.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope.

Analyzing: Helen Mirren, The Queen
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd she get nominated?: A talented actress with no Oscar playing a real-life famous person in a Best Picture nominee prestige pic, backed up by glowing reviews?!
Pros: Virtually every damn critics award. Everyone loves her and recognizes her amazing talent but she's Oscarless. She's in a biopic. Rave, rave, rave reviews.
Cons: Um...backlash? This would have been a bigger factor already, like with Julianne Moore in 2002 with Far from Heaven. A whole bunch of critics awards, and then the Globes came and BAM! Nicole took over.
Basically, any chance of winning?: All the other nominees here have "not Helen Mirren" in their cons section for a reason.

Analyzing: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd she get nominated?: Meryl effin' Streep
Pros: Everyone wants to see Meryl win another Oscar...she hasn't since '83! The only American in this category. People have been talking about her non-stop since this movie came out.
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. The movie is fluffy and didn't have much other Oscar support (if she got Blunt in with her, she might have a slightly better chance).
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. But she's coming in (a distant) second.

Analyzing: Kate Winslet, Little Children
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd she get nominated?: Kate Winslet. 5 nominations at 31?! They clearly do like her.
Pros: As I just said, 5 nominations must mean they like her, especially in stuff like Little Children which played in like one teeny little hidden theater in LA for half a week and certainly didn't get out there with an FYC campaign. At the beginning of this year, she was considered the frontrunner.
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. Teensy tiny little film.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. Not Helen Mirren.

Analyzing: Best Actress as a whole
Who will win: OH GOD THIS IS SO HARD. Um...just kidding. Helen Mirren has this all sewn (sown?) up.
Who should win: Okay, I know I ranked these ladies, but it might as well be a tie. Almost always, the categories have at least one nominee that makes me go "eh" or "ugh!" Here, not at all. They might as well all be the winners! It's just a shame that in such an amazing year for actresses, the same name kept coming up.
Unlucky sixth placer: Probably Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby...but who can tell with this year? Nobody else ever got mentioned besides these five. Ahaaaa.
Snubbed: Many people. Among the most notable/ones I liked the most, Naomi Watts in The Painted Veil, Cate Blanchett in The Good German, Laura Dern in Inland Empire, and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby.
Random cool fact about this category: Meryl Streep has the most nominations ever and Kate Winslet has the most nominations ever for someone her age.