OSCAR PREDIX!!!!!

If I even get to see the Oscars this year, motherfuckers on Cablevision or whatever it is.

Best Picture: Avatar (alt. The Hurt Locker)
Best Director: THE LADY (alt. James Cameron)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (alt. George Clooney, Up in the Air)
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (alt. Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia)
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (alt. no one needed. But Harrelson)
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious (alt. no one needed. But Gyllenhaal)
Best Original Screenplay: Inglorious Bastards (alt. The Hurt Locker)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (alt. Precious)
Best Animated Feature: Up (alt. none needed)
Best Foreign Film: The White Ribbon (alt. Un Prophete)


Sadly, I don't care or know enough about the other categories this year to make a prediction. Is there a movie that's really pretty? It'll win Cinematography. Is there a movie with lots of period costumes? It'll win Best Costumes. Is there a movie that made you feel like throwing up when you saw it because of the weird camera angles and whatnot? It'll win Best Editing.

Updated ANTM predictions.

14. Lisa
13. Rachel
12. Courtney
11. Lulu
10. Rae
The judges don't like her any more. I can see her minorly messing up the next shoot and the judges really coming down on her for it.
9. Ashley
Did they mention she's a dancer and they think it holds her back?
8. Bianca
I'm pretty sure she's getting the Sandra elimination, where she lands in the B2 a lot before unceremoniously being dumped.
7. Kara
She'll be told that she's too harsh and that her portfolio isn't as good as the other girls or something.
6. Erin
Her elimination will be BS. It seems like the judges like her now, which is good, cuz I was kind of fearing she'd be Clarked (FCO one week, eliminated the next pre-overseas) this week.
5. Sundai
I think Tyra has a soft spot for her, so she'll get far, but damn, she's just too short.
4. Brittany
I just get the feeling she goes far.
3. Nicole
Commercial appeal? Nicole? Yeah not really. Plus, she's too good to be top two.
2. Laura
She's definitely getting far, and if I wasn't like 75% sure Jennifer was winning this, she'd absolutely be my guess.
1. Jennifer
One time for the AAAAA-SIAAAANS!!!!

oh, and by the way

19/24.

Either I was really ON or the awards were incredibly predictable. Um, I'm going with the latter.

Major Categories - Most Likely to Least Likely.

BEST PICTURE
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. The Reader
5. Frost/Nixon
I want to have some guts and say The Reader above Curious Case, but nah... I also want to say none of these are out for good but with Slumdog's dominance of award season that sounds stupid.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Danny Boyle
2. Stephen Daldry
3. David Fincher
4. Gus Van Sant
5. Ron Howard
I can't really see anyone but Boyle winning this category. Daldry is above Fincher because they clearly love him, but clearly don't like Fincher all that much.

BEST ACTOR
1. Mickey Rourke
2. Sean Penn
3. Frank Langella
4. Brad Pitt
5. Richard Jenkins
It's gonna be Rourke or Penn. I seriously doubt anyone else is sneaking in here... there's NO passion for anyone besides those two. Langella doesn't look like a likely dark horse at all.

BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet
2. Meryl Streep
3. Melissa Leo
4. Anne Hathaway
5. Angelina Jolie
I fear calling the #1 a lock here, or even predicting her. Supposedly Leo is gaining hype as the third-placer as opposed to Hathaway, who couldn't even win the ISA! HAH! Good on you for not giving Rachel Getting Married anything, ISA. :)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman
3. Robert Downey Jr.
4. Josh Brolin
5. Michael Shannon
No need to predict anyone other than Heath...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Penelope Cruz
2. Viola Davis
3. Taraji P. Henson
4. Marisa Tomei
5. Amy Adams
This is one I can see going any way, though I do think the #1 girl is out in front. I only moved TPH up - she'd normally be my easy #5 here - because Nate over at 538 predicted her and you do not bet against Nate from 538.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Milk
2. Wall-E
3. In Bruges
4. Frozen River
5. Happy-Go-Lucky
I can see #2 or #3 upsetting very easily, though I do think Milk has this if nothing else. The bottom two are out of the running, I think.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Reader
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Frost/Nixon
5. Doubt
I'm telling you, people, "Jai Ho," get used to hearing it. Jai hooooo... jai hoooo...

I am SO EXCITED for tonight. And yes I realize this makes me ~shallow~ and that there are ~better things to care about in today's times~, but what can I say, I love the movies. Nobody gets on anyone's case for being all excited about the Super Bowl; why are so many people up my ass for loving the Oscars? I'll be back sometime tonight or tomorrow with all my thoughts and whatnot. :)

FINAL OSCAR PREDIX, AAAAOOOGAH!

Yeah. I reserve the right to change any of these until Sunday night. And a lot of this is me guessing, especially on the documentary shorts and whatnot, hahah.

BEST PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire (alt. Milk)
BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle (alt. David Fincher)
BEST ACTOR: Mickey Rourke (alt. Sean Penn)
BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet (alt. Meryl Streep)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger (alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz (alt. Viola Davis)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Milk (alt. Wall-E)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Slumdog Millionaire (alt. The Reader)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Reader (alt. Slumdog Millionaire)
BEST EDITING: Slumdog Millionaire (alt. Milk)
BEST ART DIRECTION: The Curious Case... (alt. Changeling)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Duchess (alt. The Curious Case...)
BEST MAKEUP: The Curious Case... (alt. The Dark Knight)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Slumdog Millionaire (alt. The Curious Case...)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Jai Ho" (alt. "Down to Earth")
BEST SOUND: Slumdog Millionaire (alt. The Dark Knight)
BEST SOUND EDITING: The Dark Knight (alt. Slumdog Millionaire)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: The Curious Case... (alt. The Dark Knight)
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Wall-E (alt. Kung Fu Panda)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Waltz with Bashir (alt. The Class)
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Man on Wire (alt. Trouble the Water)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Conscience of Nhem En (alt. The Final Inch)
BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED: Presto (alt. Oktapodi)
BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION: Toyland (alt. The Pig)

Whew. We'll see how well I did late Sunday night or Monday morning/afternoon, depending on how busy I am :)

Major Oscar predix.

I reserve the right to change these up to the ceremony. :P

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
It's got all the hype and many of the precursors. Barring some huge upset, it's got this in the bag. The Curious Case... will continue its trend of being nominated for tons of big things but winning none of those big things.
Alternate: Milk
I've seen/Should win, with my limited viewings in mind: Milk, The Curious Case... (yes, I watched it online a little while ago, and OMG SOOOO BORING and just... not right at all, tonally), and The Reader / Milk
Snubbed: Wall-E

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
See above.
Alternate: David Fincher
I've seen/Should win: Daldry, Fincher, Van Sant / Van Sant
Snubbed: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
It's close with him and Sean Penn. But I think, in the end, the "underdog" story will truly appeal to the voters, those saps. ;) It will be CLOSE, though.
Alternate: Sean Penn
I've seen/Should win: Penn and Pitt / PENN.
Snubbed: Robert Downey Jr., Iron Man. Not kidding.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader
KING OF KINGS! AND LORD OF LORDS!!!!
Alternate: Meryl Streep
I've seen/Should win: Hathaway, Leo, Streep, Winslet. Whoo, almost done! / Winslet
Snubbed: Rebecca Hall or Scarlett Johansson, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I finally saw all of Happy-Go-Lucky, and Sally Hawkins does not deserve to be in this category, sorry.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
The only real, true lock.
Alternate: Don't need one, but PSH
I've seen/Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Ledger
Snubbed: Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married and Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Meh? Good, nomination-worthy, but not OMG GIVE HER AN OSCAR RTM-worthy at all. At least, if they give her an Oscar now, they can get it out of the way. And ha ha, she's not going to get her boyfriend to present it to her. I hope the inane little thing cries about it and not in a good way. Wow, I'm so mean! I can still see any of the nominees here upsetting; Pene's not a huge frontrunner.
Alternate: Viola Davis, Doubt
I've seen/Should win: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson / Davis
Snubbed: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (though I have her in lead)

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
The film will more than likely pick up its only major award here.
Alternate: Wall-E
I've seen / Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Wall-E
Snubbed: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
Get used to "Jai Ho," people. You're going to hear it A LOT on Oscar night when those guys go up to get their 500000 trophies.
Alternate: The Reader
I've seen / Should win: The Curious Case..., Doubt, The Reader / out of those, um, The Reader I guess
Snubbed: Revolutionary Road

Those were my long predictions for the major categories... I'll have a full list up in a few days.

BAFTA predix

Best Film: Slumdog Millionaire (alt. The Reader)
Best British Film: Slumdog Millionaire (alt. Mamma Mia! or In Bruges)
Best Director: Danny Boyle (alt. David Fincher)
Best Actor: Sean Penn (alt. Dev Patel)
Best Actress: Kate Winslet for The Reader (alt. Kristin Scott Thomas)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (alt. PSH)
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (alt. Freida Pinto)
Best Original Screenplay: Milk (alt. Changeling)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire (alt. The Reader)

Cuz why not.

SAG predix!

FILMS
Best Cast: Milk (alt. Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Actor: Sean Penn (alt. Mickey Rourke)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep (alt. Kate Winslet)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (alt. don't need one but PSH)
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet (alt. Viola Davis) (yay)

TV
Best Cast, Drama: Mad Men (alt. House)
Best Cast, Comedy: 30 Rock (alt. The Office)
Best Actor, Drama: Hugh Lawrie (alt. Jon Hamm)
Best Actor, Comedy: Alec Baldwin (alt. Steve Carell)
Best Actor, TV Movie/Miniseries: Paul Giamatti (alt. Tom Wilkinson)
Best Actress, Drama: Kyra Sedgwick (alt. Sally Field)
Best Actress, Comedy: Tina Fey (alt. Christina Appelgate)
Best Actress, TV Movie/Miniseries: LAURA LINNEY! (alt. Laura Dern)

It's nice to predict my two favorite actresses WINNING something for a change :) Maybe The Office can upset too! Doubtful. =/ Ah well, 30 Rock is still amazing too.

"To be laughed at in January 2009."

Well, let's laugh at 'em then.

Best Picture: 2/5! (Milk and The Reader)
Best Director: 1/5 (Van Sant)
Best Actor: 2/5! (Penn and Langella)
Best Actress: 2.5/5! (Jolie, Steep, Winslet but for the wrong movie)
Best Supporting Actor: 2.5/5! (Brolin, Ledger, Downey Jr. but for the wrong movie)
Best Supporting Actress: 1/5! Maybe 1.5! (Davis, and I predicted Winslet for The Reader here)

So, not as FAAAAAILtastic as what I can remember predicting the year before. "What will come out of nowhere and be brilliant and loved by the Academy"? Slumdog Millionaire! See, I know there's always one film nominated for BP that we've never heard of in January of that year. And sadly, yes, Miracle at St. Anna sucked (apparently, I haven't seen it) and failed horribly. ;_;

Final, ultimate Oscar predictions of craziness.

In EVERYTHING! So we can laugh at how I get like 4/100 things right.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case...
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Original Screenplay
In Bruges
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Art Direction
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Milk

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader

Best Costume Design
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Other Boleyn Girl
Revolutionary Road
Sex and the City

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Best Original Song
Bolt: "I Thought I Lost You"
Gran Torino: "Gran Torino"
Slumdog Millionaire: "Jai Ho"
Wall-E: "Down to Earth"
The Wrestler: "The Wrestler"
I badly want to predict "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" from Hamlet 2 but even I'm not that insane.

Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Best Sound Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E

Best Animated Film
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir

Best Foreign Film
The only category I'll skip out on because I don't even know what's eligible.




We'll see tomorrow morning.........

Globe predix.

Did I already do this? Yeah, well.

Picture - Drama: Slumdog Millionaire
Alt: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog is gaining hype, and Benjamin Button is kind of losing it/gaining backlash that I haven't seen for Slumdog.

Picture - Musical/Comedy: Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Alt: Happy-Go-Lucky
It's hard to tell, because the Globes are nucking futs and love both weird foreign films and musicals, so this could go to Mamma Mia!, but Mamma Mia! is just so... shitty. C'mon, Globes. Do not let me down.

Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Alt: David Fincher, The Curious Case...
I would predict Fincher to win the Globe/Oscar, except I keep hearing Fincher is a huuuumongous asshole that nobody wants to vote for. Yeah, that shouldn't play a part in award shows, but it unfortunately does. Damn politics. Whether it's true or not, we'll see.

Best Actor - Drama: Sean Penn, Milk
Alt: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
I think Penn's gonna get the Oscar this year, and he's the clear frontrunner. So, cuz he's gonna win the award this year... can we please give his 2003 Oscar to Bill Murray? Not that Sean Penn was bad there, but come on. :( DiCaprio and Pitt are also major possibilities, because the Globes love starfucking.

Best Actress - Drama: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Alt: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
I'm gonna go with that "spoiler" and pray desperately that it's wrong. Also, if Anne wins and Kate goes 0-2, which may happen, that's right, Anne Hathaway's going to be a Golden Globe winner before Kate is. Come on, Golden Globe voters. You know that shit is fucked up.

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy: Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
Alt: Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Eh, no guts no glory, I can see them going for the legend here, plus they just gave an award to Javier last year (though maybe they'll reward him again this year so he can give his speech? LOL). They're both kind of tied in my mind.

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Alt: Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
The Globes are the type to LOVE Hawkins. On the other hand, they're obsessed with Meryl Streep. But I don't think they're stupid enough to award her the win for Mamma Mia!. Or rather, I HOPE so.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Alt: I don't need one. But Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Duh. Duh duh duh? Duh duh.

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Alt: Kate Winslet, The Reader
The Globes ARE the type to go all "OMG Penelope! She was FIERY!!! And spoke SPANISH!!!!" Am I the only one who seriously didn't like her all that much? Yeah, she was good, but no better than Rebecca or Scarlett. Poor Scarlett Johansson has gone from like the most overrated, overworking actress in Hollywood, to its most underrated. Yes, I will always defend her tooth and nail.

Best Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Alt: Doubt
Sure.


At least this is gonna be better than last year's NOTceremony. Pretty dresses!!!!

Oscar nominee predix, 1/10.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Next in line in order: Milk, Wall-E, Revolutionary Road

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Next in line: Aronofsky, Mendes

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Next in line: DiCaprio, Jenkins, Brolin, Bardem, Gleeson, Farrell (try not to laugh too hard about the last two)

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Next in line: Hawkins, Leo, Scott-Thomas
* Yes, I know Blanchett has little precursor attention. But it's the Oscars. And Benjamin Button will likely gain a gazillion nominations. Are you really gonna tell me they're not going to nominate Cate fucking Blanchett from a major Oscarbait movie? Really? Oh, but they'll nominate Melissa Leo in some movie 4 people saw over her. Uh huh. (This will probably happen, and then you can laugh at me)

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Next in line: Franco, Shannon

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Next in line: Henson and that's about it? One of the Rachel Getting Married ladies?

Best Original Screenplay
Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, Rachel Getting Married, In Bruges
Next in line: Happy-Go-Lucky, The Wrestler, Gran Torino

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, The Curious Case...
Next in line: Revolutionary Road, The Dark Knight

Golden Globe predix.

Y not rite? Warning, I'm so bad at predicting these things.

Best Picture, Drama
Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
Winner: Vicky Christina Barcelona
Alternate: Mamma Mia! GAG HURL VOM.

Best Actor, Drama
Winner: Sean Penn, Milk
Alternate: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Winner: Javier Bardem, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Alternate: Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey

Best Actress, Drama
Winner: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Alternate: Meryl Streep, Doubt

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Winner: umm... Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky ?
Alternate: any of the other nominees

Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Alternate: don't need one but Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Alternate: any of the other nominees, except maybe Amy Adams

Best Director
Winner: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Screenplay
Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Doubt

Foreign Language Film: I've Loved You So Long
Animated Film: Wall-E
Original Score: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Original Song: "The Wrestler" by Bruce Springsteen, from The Wrestler

TV Series, Drama: Mad Men
TV Series, Comedy: 30 Rock
Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Actor in a TV Series, Musical/Comedy: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Actress in a TV Series, Drama: verrah verrah tricky to call. Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Actress in a TV Series, Musical/Comedy: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Supporting Actor: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother (please!!)
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Recount

Thanksgiving night Oscar predictions.

NO, REALLY!!!! I poked around boards and sites and saw what everyone was all hyped up about.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Frost/Nixon
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married (GAG HURL)
Angelina Jolie, The Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Right? Right. I'm gonna be wrong!

Emmys are actually this weekend?

Heh, could have fooled me. Anyway, final predictions:

Drama Series: Mad Men (alt. Damages)
Actor - Drama: Hugh Lawrie - House (alt. James Spader - Boston Legal)
Actress - Drama: Glenn Close - Damages (alt. Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer)
S. Actor - Drama: Ted Danson - Damages (alt. William Shatner - Boston Legal)
S. Actress - Drama: Chandra Wilson - Grey's Anatomy (alt. Rachel Griffiths - Brothers and Sisters)
Comedy Series: 30 Rock (alt. The Office)
Actor - Comedy: Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock (alt. Steve Carell - The Office)
Actress - Comedy: Tina Fey - 30 Rock (alt. Christina Applegate - Samantha Who?)
S. Actor - Comedy: Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother (alt. Jeremy Piven - Entourage)
S. Actress - Comedy: Vanessa Williams - Ugly Betty (alt. Holland Taylor - Two and a Half Men)

Drama Writing will go to ummm Mad Men? and the Directing to something from Lost. Comedy Writing will go to something from 30 Rock, and Directing to the "Pielette" episode of Pushing Daisies.

Oh, and the "should win"s...

Drama Series: Mad Men
Actor - Drama: Gabriel Bryne, In Treatment
Actress - Drama: Glenn Close, Damages
S. Actor - Drama: Ted Danson, Damages
S. Actress - Drama: uhhh Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy
Comedy Series: The Office
Actor - Comedy: Steve Carell, The Office
Actress - Comedy: Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
S. Actor - Comedy: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
S. Actress - Comedy: uhhh Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty

I forgot to post Emmy predix.

Drama Series
Will win: Mad Men
Should win: Mad Men
Snubbed: The Wire (but can we all stop acting like this is a surprise?)

Actor - Drama Series
Will win: Hugh Lawrie - House
Should win: Gabriel Bryne - In Treatment
Snubbed: no one I can think of but I don't watch that much TV drama

Actress - Drama Series
Will win: Glenn Close - Damages
Should win: Glenn Close - Damages
Snubbed: Chloe Sevigny - Big Love

S. Actor - Drama Series
Will win: William Shatner - Boston Legal
Should win: Zelkjo Ivanek - Damages
Snubbed: Blair Underwood - In Treatment

S. Actress - Drama Series
Will win: Chandra Wilson - Grey's Anatomy
Should win: Chandra Wilson - Grey's Anatomy (though I've never seen Griffiths and I normally love her)
Snubbed: Yunjin Kim - Lost (the one episode I ever saw was the one focused on her this season, and she was awesome)

Comedy Series
Will win: 30 Rock
Should win: The Office
Snubbed: Pushing Daisies

Actor - Comedy Series
Will win: Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Should win: Steve Carell - The Office (Baldwin is also spectacular and deserving)
Snubbed: no one I can think of

Actress - Comedy Series
Will win: Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Should win: Mary-Louise Parker - Weeds
Snubbed: Marcia Cross - Desperate Housewives

S. Actor - Comedy Series
Will win: Jeremy Piven - Entourage
Should win: Rainn Wilson - The Office... no, Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother... no, Jeremy Piven - Entourage...
Snubbed: John Krasinski - The Office

S. Actress - Comedy Series
Will win: Vanessa Williams - Ugly Betty
Should win: Vanessa Williams - Ugly Betty
Snubbed: Jenna Fischer - The Office and Jane Krakowski - 30 Rock

July Oscar Predix.

Best Picture
Changeling
Defiance
Milk
Miracle at St. Anna
Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Milk

Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Spike Lee - Miracle at St. Anna
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Edward Zwick - Defiance
Nothing more would amuse me than an Eastwood/Lee bitchdown here.
Prediction at this point: Van Sant - Milk

Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro - The Argentine
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Prediction at this point: Del Toro - The Argentine

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Natalie Portman - Brothers
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Bell - Defiance
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon
Prediction at this point: Downey Jr. - The Soloist

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona (ugh)
Viola Davis - Doubt
Amy Ryan - Changeling
Debra Winger - Rachel Getting Married
Prediction at this point: Davis - Doubt

Best Original Screenplay
Changeling
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Wall-E
Prediction at this point: Wall-E

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
House of Lies
Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Revolutionary Road

Why am I ignoring The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Australia in the majority of the major categories? No idea.

Tony Predix!

Best Play: August: Osage County
Best Musical: Passing Strange (alt. In the Heights)
Best Book of a Musical: Xanadu (alt. In the Heights)
Best Score of a Musical: In the Heights (alt. Passing Strange)
Best Revival of a Play: Boeing-Boeing (alt. Macbeth)
Best Revival of a Musical: South Pacific (alt. Gypsy)
Best Lead Actor in a Play: Mark Rylance - Boeing-Boeing (alt. Patrick Stewart - Macbeth)
Best Lead Actress in a Play: Deanna Dougan - August: Osage County (alt. Kate Fleetwood - Macbeth)
Best Lead Actor in a Musical: Lin-Manuel Miranda - In the Heights (alt. Paulo Szot - South Pacific)
Best Lead Actress in a Musical: Patti LuPone - Gypsy (alt. Kelli O'Hara - South Pacific, ugh, Kelli O'Hara is the Anne Hathaway of Broadway. Beautiful voice, incapable of acting.)
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Raul Esparza - The Homecoming (alt. Jim Norton - The Seafarer) (c'mon Raul! I don't care that it's a make-up award!)
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Rondi Reed - August: Osage County (alt. Mary McCormack - Boeing-Boeing)
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Danny Burstein - South Pacific (alt. Robin de Jesus - In the Heights)
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Laura Benanti - Gypsy (alt. Andrea Martin - Young Frankenstein)
Best Direction of a Play: Anna D. Shapiro - August: Osage County (alt. Matthew Warchus - Boeing-Boeing)
Best Direction of a Musical: Bartlett Sher - South Pacific (alt. Arthur Laurents - Gypsy)

So, basically, it'll be an orgy of love for August: Osage County, and I actually won't want to kill myself with the acting winners this year... hopefully. Patti, Raul, and Laura are three of my favorite Broadway actors. I haven't seen anything aside from Gypsy and Sunday in the Park with George, so I can't really speak to preferences.

SUDDEN AND AWESOME IDEA.

Predicting my own awards at the end of the year. I really don't want these to suck!

Best Picture
1. Miracle at St. Anna
2. The Dark Knight
3. Wall-E
4. Revolutionary Road
5. The Brothers Bloom

Best Director
1. Spike Lee - Miracle at St. Anna
2. Fernando Meirelles - Blindness
3. Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road
4. Gus Van Sant - Milk
5. Andrew Stanton - Wall-E

Best Actor
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Synecdoche, New York
2. Ralph Fiennes - The Reader
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Sean Penn - Milk

Best Actress
1. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
2. Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
3. Natalie Portman - Brothers
4. Julianne Moore - Blindness
5. Meryl Streep - Doubt

Best Supporting Actor
1. Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
2. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
3. Josh Brolin - Milk
Um. Sure.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Ryan - Changeling
2. Samantha Morton - Synecdoche, New York
3. Viola Davis - Doubt
uh, this just feels like my Oscar predictions again.

Best Original Screenplay
1. Synecdoche, New York
2. Wall-E
3. Leatherheads
4. Burn After Reading
5. Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Revolutionary Road
2. The Reader
3. Miracle at St. Anna
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Blindness

Why am I so not excited for Doubt and Australia? I do not know. I might re-do this in Septemberish when I have heard a little more about these films/know which ones are actually 2008 and stuff.

To be laughed at in January 2009.

Predictions!

Best Picture
Body of Lies
Changeling
Defiance
Milk
The Reader
Alternates: Revolutionary Road; Frost/Nixon; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Australia; Wall-E; Miracle at St. Anna (I JUST found out about this, and OH MY GOD. I CANNOT WAIT. It's now my fourth-most anticipated movie of 2008.); Australia; The Soloist; Sunshine Cleaning; Doubt; Appaloosa; Burn After Reading; The Argentine

Reasoning: Body of Lies involves Ridley Scott, Leonardo DiCaprio, Russell Crowe, and William Monahan, a lot of things the Academy likes in general. Changeling is Clint Eastwood - hello??? Defiance is Edward Zwick, and I'm thinking this might be the come-out-of-nowhere-but-why-didn't-we-see-this-coming-because-the-Academy-is-wet-for-you nomination (like Letters from Iwo Jima or Munich). The Academy really seems to like him, regardless of how terrible his movies usually are; Blood Diamond did pretty good for the nominations and kind of came out of nowhere. Milk is the biopic and "oh gee, we're really sorry about Brokeback Mountain (except wait, Crash was totally the better movie!)" award. The Reader is because the Academy really likes Daldry and WWII.
Win prediction at this point (SO dumb, but why not!): Milk

Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Spike Lee - Miracle at St. Anna
Ridley Scott - Body of Lies
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Edward Zwick - Defiance
Alternates: Mendes for Revolutionary Road; Howard for Frost/Nixon; Fincher for The Curious Case... (I do think this is his most Oscar-friendly movie, plus it actually has an Oscar-friendly release date); Meirelles for Blindness; Luhrmann for Australia; Harris for Appaloosa; Shanley for Doubt; Wright for The Soloist; Daldry for The Reader; Soderbergh for The Argentine

Reasoning: They NEVER get tired of Eastwood. If Scott can make a good movie again (IE not American Gangster or A Good Year...), I think he'll be back in their good graces. If Milk isn't all weird, Van Sant will get nominated. It's only a matter of time until Zwick does, because they like his movies even when they are crap. And finally, Lee is my wishin' and hopin' and thinkin' and prayin' guess. I'm fully expecting him to be wrong. But if it's right, I'll be overjoyed.
Win prediction at this point: Ridley Scott - Body of Lies

Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro - The Argentine
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Jamie Foxx - The Soloist
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Alternates: DiCaprio in Body of Lies; Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt or Synecdoche, New York; Viggo Mortensen in Appaloosa; Ralph Fiennes in The Reader; Hugh Jackman in Australia

Reasoning: Del Toro, Langella, and Penn are all the OMGXPERSONISYPERSON!!!!! performances of the year. I feel like Jamie Foxx will be welcomed back with open arms if he makes another good movie again, especially one so baity that will call back memories of Ray, perhaps. Jamie Foxx, three-time Oscar nominee! DiCaprio has turned into an actor the Academy always pays attention to, and supposedly his role in Revolutionary Road is just fantastic.
Win prediction at this point: Sean Penn - Milk

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Alternates: Sienna Miller and Keira Knightley in The Edge of Love; Amy Adams and Emily Blunt in Sunshine Cleaning (why does Jesus demean herself so? :( ); Keira Knightley in The Duchess; Julianne Moore in Blindness; Nicole Kidman in Australia; Natalie Portman in Brothers; Anne Hathaway in Dancing with Shiva; Uma Thurman, The Life Before Her Eyes; Rachel McAdams, The Time Traveler's Wife; Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. And can someone fill me in on this Number One Ladies' Detective Agency thing? I've heard it's a mini-series or is ineligible for some reason?

Reasoning: Winslet, Blanchett, and Streep are Winslet, Blanchett, and Streep. They get nominations for everything. Yeah, I know I had that post a few days/weeks? ago decrying the Blanchett fans for calling her a lock. And she's not a lock (no one is a lock at this point, and it is ridiculous to say so), but she is very likely. Jolie will get caught up in Changeling's probably-inevitable Oscar love; this is added to by the fact that she was so close to getting in this year. As far as Emily Blunt goes, yuck. I am being pessimistic and truly hoping this will be one of the ones we laugh at in 2009. But British queens = Oscar bait. Ugh. But anyway...watch this lineup be like, Blanchett, Blunt, Knightley, Hathaway, and Winslet. Winslet will give the best performance of her career, and everyone will want her to win and she'll sweep the critics, and then something stupid and bullshit will happen like BLUNT OR HATHAWAY HAS A COME-OUT-OF-NOWHERE WIN. Oh my God, I think I'd shoot myself on principle. SERIOUSLY.
Win prediction at this point: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road (provided the performance is good - which it will be because it's Kate - PLEASEEEEEEEEEE.)

Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Bell - Defiance
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon
alternates: Ed Harris in Appaloosa; John Malkovich in Changeling. This category is hard to call, as there isn't really anyone that cares enough about Supporting Actors to make a big list of the Oscar-baity Supporting Actors and their films.

Reasoning: These seem the baitiest. I guess. Like I said, I don't really know what anyone else is predicting, besides Heath Ledger. I don't think he'll win - a year from now, his death won't seem so fresh and thus, so sad - but I'd love to see him get a nomination if his performance is as strong as that in the trailer. But I have heard his part's not as big as some were saying...
Win prediction at this point: Josh Brolin - Milk

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road
Viola Davis - Doubt
Catherine Keener - The Soloist
Laura Linney - The Other Man
Kate Winslet - The Reader
alternates: Amy Adams in Doubt (I would actually be predicting her, but I hear her role isn't very big [I don't remember from the play]); Amy Ryan in Changeling; Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; the ladies of Synecdoche, New York; Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Reasoning: They all have good parts in Oscar-baity films. Linney is my wish that I don't really think is going to happen (if I'm predicting Blunt, I'm going to predict Lee and Linney too, dammit!!!). People forget that Kate Winslet, especially since the 2000s started, is also very much a default nominee; she just doesn't work nearly as much as Blanchett.
Win prediction at this point: Viola Davis - Doubt

Best Original Screenplay
Changeling
Milk
Synecdoche, New York
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Alternates: Burn After Reading; Sunshine Cleaning; The Soloist; Australia; The Lucky Ones; Dancing with Shiva

Reasoning: Changeling and Milk are the Best Picture nominees nominees. Synecdoche is the weird artsy nominee. Vicky Christina Barcelona is the Woody Allen nominee (if it's good, it's in, but there's the large possibility that it'll get bad reviews). Wall-E is the Pixar-is-genius nominee.
Win prediction at this point: Wall-E (provided the quality remains high, it's only a matter of time until the Academy starts recognizing Pixar films in other categories than Animated and the techs)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Body of Lies
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Alternates: Appaloosa; Blindness; Doubt; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Miracle at St. Anna

Reasoning: The Reader, Defiance, and Body of Lies are the Best Picture nominees nominees. Revolutionary Road is the close-to-Best-Picture-plus-it's-based-on-a-great-novel nominee. Frost/Nixon is the play nominee. For some reason, I see Frost/Nixon getting more Academy attention than Doubt.
Win prediction at this point: The Reader

What will come out of nowhere and be brilliant and loved by the Academy, like Juno this year? What will suck and fail horribly (please, not Miracle at St. Anna or Revolutionary Road...)? Why do I not think Australia will do well, apparently? We shall see.