Predictions!
Best Picture
Body of Lies
Changeling
Defiance
Milk
The Reader
Alternates: Revolutionary Road; Frost/Nixon; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Australia; Wall-E; Miracle at St. Anna (I JUST found out about this, and OH MY GOD. I CANNOT WAIT. It's now my fourth-most anticipated movie of 2008.); Australia; The Soloist; Sunshine Cleaning; Doubt; Appaloosa; Burn After Reading; The Argentine
Reasoning: Body of Lies involves Ridley Scott, Leonardo DiCaprio, Russell Crowe, and William Monahan, a lot of things the Academy likes in general. Changeling is Clint Eastwood - hello??? Defiance is Edward Zwick, and I'm thinking this might be the come-out-of-nowhere-but-why-didn't-we-see-this-coming-because-the-Academy-is-wet-for-you nomination (like Letters from Iwo Jima or Munich). The Academy really seems to like him, regardless of how terrible his movies usually are; Blood Diamond did pretty good for the nominations and kind of came out of nowhere. Milk is the biopic and "oh gee, we're really sorry about Brokeback Mountain (except wait, Crash was totally the better movie!)" award. The Reader is because the Academy really likes Daldry and WWII.
Win prediction at this point (SO dumb, but why not!): Milk
Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Spike Lee - Miracle at St. Anna
Ridley Scott - Body of Lies
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Edward Zwick - Defiance
Alternates: Mendes for Revolutionary Road; Howard for Frost/Nixon; Fincher for The Curious Case... (I do think this is his most Oscar-friendly movie, plus it actually has an Oscar-friendly release date); Meirelles for Blindness; Luhrmann for Australia; Harris for Appaloosa; Shanley for Doubt; Wright for The Soloist; Daldry for The Reader; Soderbergh for The Argentine
Reasoning: They NEVER get tired of Eastwood. If Scott can make a good movie again (IE not American Gangster or A Good Year...), I think he'll be back in their good graces. If Milk isn't all weird, Van Sant will get nominated. It's only a matter of time until Zwick does, because they like his movies even when they are crap. And finally, Lee is my wishin' and hopin' and thinkin' and prayin' guess. I'm fully expecting him to be wrong. But if it's right, I'll be overjoyed.
Win prediction at this point: Ridley Scott - Body of Lies
Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro - The Argentine
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Jamie Foxx - The Soloist
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Alternates: DiCaprio in Body of Lies; Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt or Synecdoche, New York; Viggo Mortensen in Appaloosa; Ralph Fiennes in The Reader; Hugh Jackman in Australia
Reasoning: Del Toro, Langella, and Penn are all the OMGXPERSONISYPERSON!!!!! performances of the year. I feel like Jamie Foxx will be welcomed back with open arms if he makes another good movie again, especially one so baity that will call back memories of Ray, perhaps. Jamie Foxx, three-time Oscar nominee! DiCaprio has turned into an actor the Academy always pays attention to, and supposedly his role in Revolutionary Road is just fantastic.
Win prediction at this point: Sean Penn - Milk
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Alternates: Sienna Miller and Keira Knightley in The Edge of Love; Amy Adams and Emily Blunt in Sunshine Cleaning (why does Jesus demean herself so? :( ); Keira Knightley in The Duchess; Julianne Moore in Blindness; Nicole Kidman in Australia; Natalie Portman in Brothers; Anne Hathaway in Dancing with Shiva; Uma Thurman, The Life Before Her Eyes; Rachel McAdams, The Time Traveler's Wife; Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. And can someone fill me in on this Number One Ladies' Detective Agency thing? I've heard it's a mini-series or is ineligible for some reason?
Reasoning: Winslet, Blanchett, and Streep are Winslet, Blanchett, and Streep. They get nominations for everything. Yeah, I know I had that post a few days/weeks? ago decrying the Blanchett fans for calling her a lock. And she's not a lock (no one is a lock at this point, and it is ridiculous to say so), but she is very likely. Jolie will get caught up in Changeling's probably-inevitable Oscar love; this is added to by the fact that she was so close to getting in this year. As far as Emily Blunt goes, yuck. I am being pessimistic and truly hoping this will be one of the ones we laugh at in 2009. But British queens = Oscar bait. Ugh. But anyway...watch this lineup be like, Blanchett, Blunt, Knightley, Hathaway, and Winslet. Winslet will give the best performance of her career, and everyone will want her to win and she'll sweep the critics, and then something stupid and bullshit will happen like BLUNT OR HATHAWAY HAS A COME-OUT-OF-NOWHERE WIN. Oh my God, I think I'd shoot myself on principle. SERIOUSLY.
Win prediction at this point: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road (provided the performance is good - which it will be because it's Kate - PLEASEEEEEEEEEE.)
Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Bell - Defiance
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon
alternates: Ed Harris in Appaloosa; John Malkovich in Changeling. This category is hard to call, as there isn't really anyone that cares enough about Supporting Actors to make a big list of the Oscar-baity Supporting Actors and their films.
Reasoning: These seem the baitiest. I guess. Like I said, I don't really know what anyone else is predicting, besides Heath Ledger. I don't think he'll win - a year from now, his death won't seem so fresh and thus, so sad - but I'd love to see him get a nomination if his performance is as strong as that in the trailer. But I have heard his part's not as big as some were saying...
Win prediction at this point: Josh Brolin - Milk
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road
Viola Davis - Doubt
Catherine Keener - The Soloist
Laura Linney - The Other Man
Kate Winslet - The Reader
alternates: Amy Adams in Doubt (I would actually be predicting her, but I hear her role isn't very big [I don't remember from the play]); Amy Ryan in Changeling; Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; the ladies of Synecdoche, New York; Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Reasoning: They all have good parts in Oscar-baity films. Linney is my wish that I don't really think is going to happen (if I'm predicting Blunt, I'm going to predict Lee and Linney too, dammit!!!). People forget that Kate Winslet, especially since the 2000s started, is also very much a default nominee; she just doesn't work nearly as much as Blanchett.
Win prediction at this point: Viola Davis - Doubt
Best Original Screenplay
Changeling
Milk
Synecdoche, New York
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Alternates: Burn After Reading; Sunshine Cleaning; The Soloist; Australia; The Lucky Ones; Dancing with Shiva
Reasoning: Changeling and Milk are the Best Picture nominees nominees. Synecdoche is the weird artsy nominee. Vicky Christina Barcelona is the Woody Allen nominee (if it's good, it's in, but there's the large possibility that it'll get bad reviews). Wall-E is the Pixar-is-genius nominee.
Win prediction at this point: Wall-E (provided the quality remains high, it's only a matter of time until the Academy starts recognizing Pixar films in other categories than Animated and the techs)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Body of Lies
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Alternates: Appaloosa; Blindness; Doubt; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Miracle at St. Anna
Reasoning: The Reader, Defiance, and Body of Lies are the Best Picture nominees nominees. Revolutionary Road is the close-to-Best-Picture-plus-it's-based-on-a-great-novel nominee. Frost/Nixon is the play nominee. For some reason, I see Frost/Nixon getting more Academy attention than Doubt.
Win prediction at this point: The Reader
What will come out of nowhere and be brilliant and loved by the Academy, like Juno this year? What will suck and fail horribly (please, not Miracle at St. Anna or Revolutionary Road...)? Why do I not think Australia will do well, apparently? We shall see.
