"To be laughed at in January 2009."

Well, let's laugh at 'em then.

Best Picture: 2/5! (Milk and The Reader)
Best Director: 1/5 (Van Sant)
Best Actor: 2/5! (Penn and Langella)
Best Actress: 2.5/5! (Jolie, Steep, Winslet but for the wrong movie)
Best Supporting Actor: 2.5/5! (Brolin, Ledger, Downey Jr. but for the wrong movie)
Best Supporting Actress: 1/5! Maybe 1.5! (Davis, and I predicted Winslet for The Reader here)

So, not as FAAAAAILtastic as what I can remember predicting the year before. "What will come out of nowhere and be brilliant and loved by the Academy"? Slumdog Millionaire! See, I know there's always one film nominated for BP that we've never heard of in January of that year. And sadly, yes, Miracle at St. Anna sucked (apparently, I haven't seen it) and failed horribly. ;_;

DUDE, IRON MAN.

DUDE.

I know a little back I was saying that the trailer kind of made it look like it sucked, but dude, now I hope The Dark Knight is half as good.

Robert Downey Jr. is AMAZING. I would be thrilled if he was in my Best Actor lineup in my 2008 awards.

(and now I've seen a whole three movies from 2008!!!!)

The movies of 2008. (That I desperately need to see)

SEEN (a sad, sorry list)
Cloverfield
The Other Boleyn Girl

AM INTERESTED IN, BECAUSE WHY THE HECK NOT
27 Dresses
Teeth
The Air I Breathe
Definitely, Maybe
The Spiderwick Chronicles
Jumper
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation
Vantage Point
Charlie Bartlett
Semi-Pro
Penelope
10000 BC
Married Life
Paranoid Park
Doomsday (I've heard it's RIDICULOUS)
Horton Hears a Who!
Funny Games
Sleepwalking
21 (Kevin Spacey was great fun in the last blockbuster he was in...)
Run, Fatboy, Run
Nim's Island (this weekend)

AM DYING TO SEE
Cassandra's Dream
In Bruges !!!!
Be Kind Rewind
Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day
Snow Angels
Stop-Loss
Leatherheads !!!! (this weekend)
Shine a Light !!!! (this weekend)
My Blueberry Nights !!!! (this weekend)

SUDDEN AND AWESOME IDEA.

Predicting my own awards at the end of the year. I really don't want these to suck!

Best Picture
1. Miracle at St. Anna
2. The Dark Knight
3. Wall-E
4. Revolutionary Road
5. The Brothers Bloom

Best Director
1. Spike Lee - Miracle at St. Anna
2. Fernando Meirelles - Blindness
3. Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road
4. Gus Van Sant - Milk
5. Andrew Stanton - Wall-E

Best Actor
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Synecdoche, New York
2. Ralph Fiennes - The Reader
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Sean Penn - Milk

Best Actress
1. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
2. Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
3. Natalie Portman - Brothers
4. Julianne Moore - Blindness
5. Meryl Streep - Doubt

Best Supporting Actor
1. Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
2. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
3. Josh Brolin - Milk
Um. Sure.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Ryan - Changeling
2. Samantha Morton - Synecdoche, New York
3. Viola Davis - Doubt
uh, this just feels like my Oscar predictions again.

Best Original Screenplay
1. Synecdoche, New York
2. Wall-E
3. Leatherheads
4. Burn After Reading
5. Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Revolutionary Road
2. The Reader
3. Miracle at St. Anna
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Blindness

Why am I so not excited for Doubt and Australia? I do not know. I might re-do this in Septemberish when I have heard a little more about these films/know which ones are actually 2008 and stuff.

To be laughed at in January 2009.

Predictions!

Best Picture
Body of Lies
Changeling
Defiance
Milk
The Reader
Alternates: Revolutionary Road; Frost/Nixon; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Australia; Wall-E; Miracle at St. Anna (I JUST found out about this, and OH MY GOD. I CANNOT WAIT. It's now my fourth-most anticipated movie of 2008.); Australia; The Soloist; Sunshine Cleaning; Doubt; Appaloosa; Burn After Reading; The Argentine

Reasoning: Body of Lies involves Ridley Scott, Leonardo DiCaprio, Russell Crowe, and William Monahan, a lot of things the Academy likes in general. Changeling is Clint Eastwood - hello??? Defiance is Edward Zwick, and I'm thinking this might be the come-out-of-nowhere-but-why-didn't-we-see-this-coming-because-the-Academy-is-wet-for-you nomination (like Letters from Iwo Jima or Munich). The Academy really seems to like him, regardless of how terrible his movies usually are; Blood Diamond did pretty good for the nominations and kind of came out of nowhere. Milk is the biopic and "oh gee, we're really sorry about Brokeback Mountain (except wait, Crash was totally the better movie!)" award. The Reader is because the Academy really likes Daldry and WWII.
Win prediction at this point (SO dumb, but why not!): Milk

Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Spike Lee - Miracle at St. Anna
Ridley Scott - Body of Lies
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Edward Zwick - Defiance
Alternates: Mendes for Revolutionary Road; Howard for Frost/Nixon; Fincher for The Curious Case... (I do think this is his most Oscar-friendly movie, plus it actually has an Oscar-friendly release date); Meirelles for Blindness; Luhrmann for Australia; Harris for Appaloosa; Shanley for Doubt; Wright for The Soloist; Daldry for The Reader; Soderbergh for The Argentine

Reasoning: They NEVER get tired of Eastwood. If Scott can make a good movie again (IE not American Gangster or A Good Year...), I think he'll be back in their good graces. If Milk isn't all weird, Van Sant will get nominated. It's only a matter of time until Zwick does, because they like his movies even when they are crap. And finally, Lee is my wishin' and hopin' and thinkin' and prayin' guess. I'm fully expecting him to be wrong. But if it's right, I'll be overjoyed.
Win prediction at this point: Ridley Scott - Body of Lies

Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro - The Argentine
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Jamie Foxx - The Soloist
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Alternates: DiCaprio in Body of Lies; Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt or Synecdoche, New York; Viggo Mortensen in Appaloosa; Ralph Fiennes in The Reader; Hugh Jackman in Australia

Reasoning: Del Toro, Langella, and Penn are all the OMGXPERSONISYPERSON!!!!! performances of the year. I feel like Jamie Foxx will be welcomed back with open arms if he makes another good movie again, especially one so baity that will call back memories of Ray, perhaps. Jamie Foxx, three-time Oscar nominee! DiCaprio has turned into an actor the Academy always pays attention to, and supposedly his role in Revolutionary Road is just fantastic.
Win prediction at this point: Sean Penn - Milk

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Alternates: Sienna Miller and Keira Knightley in The Edge of Love; Amy Adams and Emily Blunt in Sunshine Cleaning (why does Jesus demean herself so? :( ); Keira Knightley in The Duchess; Julianne Moore in Blindness; Nicole Kidman in Australia; Natalie Portman in Brothers; Anne Hathaway in Dancing with Shiva; Uma Thurman, The Life Before Her Eyes; Rachel McAdams, The Time Traveler's Wife; Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. And can someone fill me in on this Number One Ladies' Detective Agency thing? I've heard it's a mini-series or is ineligible for some reason?

Reasoning: Winslet, Blanchett, and Streep are Winslet, Blanchett, and Streep. They get nominations for everything. Yeah, I know I had that post a few days/weeks? ago decrying the Blanchett fans for calling her a lock. And she's not a lock (no one is a lock at this point, and it is ridiculous to say so), but she is very likely. Jolie will get caught up in Changeling's probably-inevitable Oscar love; this is added to by the fact that she was so close to getting in this year. As far as Emily Blunt goes, yuck. I am being pessimistic and truly hoping this will be one of the ones we laugh at in 2009. But British queens = Oscar bait. Ugh. But anyway...watch this lineup be like, Blanchett, Blunt, Knightley, Hathaway, and Winslet. Winslet will give the best performance of her career, and everyone will want her to win and she'll sweep the critics, and then something stupid and bullshit will happen like BLUNT OR HATHAWAY HAS A COME-OUT-OF-NOWHERE WIN. Oh my God, I think I'd shoot myself on principle. SERIOUSLY.
Win prediction at this point: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road (provided the performance is good - which it will be because it's Kate - PLEASEEEEEEEEEE.)

Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Bell - Defiance
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon
alternates: Ed Harris in Appaloosa; John Malkovich in Changeling. This category is hard to call, as there isn't really anyone that cares enough about Supporting Actors to make a big list of the Oscar-baity Supporting Actors and their films.

Reasoning: These seem the baitiest. I guess. Like I said, I don't really know what anyone else is predicting, besides Heath Ledger. I don't think he'll win - a year from now, his death won't seem so fresh and thus, so sad - but I'd love to see him get a nomination if his performance is as strong as that in the trailer. But I have heard his part's not as big as some were saying...
Win prediction at this point: Josh Brolin - Milk

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road
Viola Davis - Doubt
Catherine Keener - The Soloist
Laura Linney - The Other Man
Kate Winslet - The Reader
alternates: Amy Adams in Doubt (I would actually be predicting her, but I hear her role isn't very big [I don't remember from the play]); Amy Ryan in Changeling; Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; the ladies of Synecdoche, New York; Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Reasoning: They all have good parts in Oscar-baity films. Linney is my wish that I don't really think is going to happen (if I'm predicting Blunt, I'm going to predict Lee and Linney too, dammit!!!). People forget that Kate Winslet, especially since the 2000s started, is also very much a default nominee; she just doesn't work nearly as much as Blanchett.
Win prediction at this point: Viola Davis - Doubt

Best Original Screenplay
Changeling
Milk
Synecdoche, New York
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Alternates: Burn After Reading; Sunshine Cleaning; The Soloist; Australia; The Lucky Ones; Dancing with Shiva

Reasoning: Changeling and Milk are the Best Picture nominees nominees. Synecdoche is the weird artsy nominee. Vicky Christina Barcelona is the Woody Allen nominee (if it's good, it's in, but there's the large possibility that it'll get bad reviews). Wall-E is the Pixar-is-genius nominee.
Win prediction at this point: Wall-E (provided the quality remains high, it's only a matter of time until the Academy starts recognizing Pixar films in other categories than Animated and the techs)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Body of Lies
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Alternates: Appaloosa; Blindness; Doubt; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Miracle at St. Anna

Reasoning: The Reader, Defiance, and Body of Lies are the Best Picture nominees nominees. Revolutionary Road is the close-to-Best-Picture-plus-it's-based-on-a-great-novel nominee. Frost/Nixon is the play nominee. For some reason, I see Frost/Nixon getting more Academy attention than Doubt.
Win prediction at this point: The Reader

What will come out of nowhere and be brilliant and loved by the Academy, like Juno this year? What will suck and fail horribly (please, not Miracle at St. Anna or Revolutionary Road...)? Why do I not think Australia will do well, apparently? We shall see.

My Top 15 Most Anticipated Films of 2008.

I think I already did a post like this, but whatever. Now I put numbers on 'em. Whoooo.

15. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
14. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
13. Doubt
12. Leatherheads
11. Frost/Nixon
10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
9. Blindness
8. Australia
7. Sex and the City: The Movie (HAVE YOU GUYS SEEN THE TRAILER????? BIG AND CARRIE BREAK UP. STEVE CHEATS ON MIRANDA. NOOOO!!!!!)
6. Get Smart
5. My Blueberry Nights
4. Synecdoche, New York
3. Wall-E
2. Revolutionary Road
1. The Dark Knight

the movies of 2008.

The only exception I'm leaving out on purpose is The Young Victoria. Ya'll should know by now that I am not the biggest fan of Miss Blunt.

So, in no particular order, the movies of 2008 I am at least sort of interested in seeing. (they're 2008 for now. They may change.)

City of Ember - Bill Murray, I shall follow you to the ends of the earth!
Cloverfield - I'll admit I'm totally intrigued, if only to just friggin' see the monster.
Be Kind Rewind - Michel Gondry was responsible for a lot of Eternal Sunshine's success (making Kaufman change that ending made it a masterpiece), and the trailer is just fantastic. My only problem? Ew, January.
Synecdoche, New York - On the subject of Kaufman, he's undoubtedly a great screenwriter, but always a little...I don't know. Cold? (except Eternal Sunshine, and even there the original ending is so cruel it's ridiculous.) Even if this is the same, though, it's got a great cast.
The Other Boleyn Girl - Okay, everything about this seems to hint that it's not a very good movie. And the move from fall 2007 to the beginning of 2008 really doesn't bode well. But despite all that... Scarlett Johansson and Natalie Portman in a bitchfight? My ass is in that seat.
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - I kind of hate this title. But still. Indy. And today, I saw the first picture of C. Blah as the villain, and my first thought was "since when is Mia Wallace an Indiana Jones villain?" This is an extremely good thought, we can all agree.
Righteous Kill - De Niro! Pacino! Okay, so the two of them have been kind of...uneven recently, and the supporting cast is...um... (50 Cent? Wahlberg The Lesser?) but who am I kidding, De Niro! Pacino!
Choke - My second-favorite Palahniuk book (Invisible Monsters is my favorite). Fight Club was pretty great...it'll be interesting to see what they do with this one.
The Incredible Hulk - Ang's version was quite bad. Let's see if Ed can help make this any better.
Get Smart - I don't like Anne, sure, but oh my God I love Steve, and the trailers are amazing. One of my top 5 most anticipated.
Wall-E - Pixar = genius
The Dark Knight - Fucking duh. An easy #1 most anticipated for me, and, oh, you know. THE WORLD.
The International - I've never liked a Tykwer movie all that much but... Cliiiive.
Trailer Trash - I loved Grindhouse.
Where the Wild Things Are - The stills I've seen look so cool.
The Time Traveler's Wife - Rachel McAdams is a good actress but needs to do a little more to live up to her hype. Maybe this'll be it?
James Bond 22 - Casino Royale is great and I think we can all agree Daniel Craig is indeed a really good James Bond. Marc Forster is...not the greatest director on the planet, but we shall see.
The Changeling - Say what you must, I usually like Clint Eastwood's movies a great deal, especially lately...
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - My second-favorite book in the series, so yay. The last movie was pretty great, so I'm quite psyched about this.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Fincher can be awesome (like in Zodiac). (very) Early buzz about this is great.
Australia - BAZ LUHRMANN.
Bruno: Delicious Journeys Through America... - Okay, this is probably a 2009 release, but whatever. I loooved Borat and Baron Cohen is a genius (I'm not using that term lightly here). Hopefully this'll be just as hilarious and subversive.
The Fighter - Probably 2009. But Aronofsky...and the plot...and the cast... oh I so hope it's a masterpiece.
Frost/Nixon - Great play. Please prove yourself, Ron Howard, so I can stop feeling bad for liking you.
Revolutionary Road - Yeah, I can't believe it took me this long to get here, either. Kate. Leo. Together. Again. With Sam Mendes. AIEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (#2 most anticipated of the year.)
The Reader - Ralph + Nicole? That's pretty awesome...
Blindness - Interesting plot and Meirelles is a fantastic director. I can't wait to see what he does with Julianne.
Doubt - Incredible play, incredible cast.
The Argentine - If anyone can make anything as normally dull as a biopic interesting, it's crazy ol' Soderbergh.
Elegy - I wanna see if Penelope Cruz can act in English in a project that is actually probably good...no probably not.
Mamma Mia! - This will probably suck, really hard, but it's going to be awesome and hilarious to see Meryl Streep singing ABBA.
Appaloosa - So, Viggo Mortensen is awesome, and so is Ed Harris.
Leatherheads - Good Night, and Good Luck. was just great and this looks utterly charming.
Margaret - This has been delayed like five years, right? So it's gotta be at least...okay, right? I loved You Can Count on Me...
The Women - The 1939 movie is great and I like the play. This cast is... ... ... ... ... interesting, right?
He's Just Not That Into You - Well, everyone in the world is in it. Jennifer Connelly might crack a joke! Watch out everyone!
My Blueberry Nights - The reviews were... not ecstatic, but I still think it looks gorgeous.
Funny Games - I wanna see what Haneke can do with this.
Savage Grace - Maybe this is Julianne's comeback year. I've heard great things about her performance here.
Sex and the City - omigod please don't suck please please please
The Countess - It looks fascinating, and everyone said Julie Delpy was a good director for 2 Days in Paris, right? I didn't see it, but I want to.
State of Play - greatest cast ever yes/yes?
Middle of Nowhere - I just like the synopsis.
The Brothers Bloom - Amazing synopsis. Girlcrush Rachel Weisz. Yay!
The Informers - I kind of hate the cast...but American Psycho was a Bret Easton Ellis and I still consider Christian Bale's performance there to be one of the best of the 2000s. Maybe this will yield an almost-as-good performance...

Whew.