I reserve the right to change these up to the ceremony. :P
Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
It's got all the hype and many of the precursors. Barring some huge upset, it's got this in the bag. The Curious Case... will continue its trend of being nominated for tons of big things but winning none of those big things.
Alternate: Milk
I've seen/Should win, with my limited viewings in mind: Milk, The Curious Case... (yes, I watched it online a little while ago, and OMG SOOOO BORING and just... not right at all, tonally), and The Reader / Milk
Snubbed: Wall-E
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
See above.
Alternate: David Fincher
I've seen/Should win: Daldry, Fincher, Van Sant / Van Sant
Snubbed: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Best Actor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
It's close with him and Sean Penn. But I think, in the end, the "underdog" story will truly appeal to the voters, those saps. ;) It will be CLOSE, though.
Alternate: Sean Penn
I've seen/Should win: Penn and Pitt / PENN.
Snubbed: Robert Downey Jr., Iron Man. Not kidding.
Best Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader
KING OF KINGS! AND LORD OF LORDS!!!!
Alternate: Meryl Streep
I've seen/Should win: Hathaway, Leo, Streep, Winslet. Whoo, almost done! / Winslet
Snubbed: Rebecca Hall or Scarlett Johansson, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I finally saw all of Happy-Go-Lucky, and Sally Hawkins does not deserve to be in this category, sorry.
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
The only real, true lock.
Alternate: Don't need one, but PSH
I've seen/Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Ledger
Snubbed: Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married and Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Meh? Good, nomination-worthy, but not OMG GIVE HER AN OSCAR RTM-worthy at all. At least, if they give her an Oscar now, they can get it out of the way. And ha ha, she's not going to get her boyfriend to present it to her. I hope the inane little thing cries about it and not in a good way. Wow, I'm so mean! I can still see any of the nominees here upsetting; Pene's not a huge frontrunner.
Alternate: Viola Davis, Doubt
I've seen/Should win: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson / Davis
Snubbed: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (though I have her in lead)
Best Original Screenplay
Milk
The film will more than likely pick up its only major award here.
Alternate: Wall-E
I've seen / Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Wall-E
Snubbed: Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
Get used to "Jai Ho," people. You're going to hear it A LOT on Oscar night when those guys go up to get their 500000 trophies.
Alternate: The Reader
I've seen / Should win: The Curious Case..., Doubt, The Reader / out of those, um, The Reader I guess
Snubbed: Revolutionary Road
Those were my long predictions for the major categories... I'll have a full list up in a few days.
Showing posts with label milk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label milk. Show all posts
Monday, February 16, 2009
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Independent Spirit Awards Predix
Here are this year's nominees. If the order of this list seems weird, I'm just going by that.
Best Supporting Actress: Rosemarie DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married. I think Penelope might be a little too mainstream-y for them here, and they always like showing how ~~edgy~~ (but not really because they are totally predictable) they are.
Best Supporting Actor: James Franco in Milk. Like I said... they're ~~edgy~~, but they're not that edgy.
Best Director: Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married. I think it's going to clean up and that's actually kind of unfortunate, because the film furthers some of the worst "stereotypes" about tiny indie movies. Alternatively, Courtney Hunt could win for Frozen River so they could be like, "Look! We gave the award to a girl!!! We are so ~~edgy~~!!!!!!!!"
Best Screenplay: Vicky Cristina Barcelona. The only other one I could see upsetting here is Synecdoche, New York.
Best First Screenplay: Milk. This was a tough call. I wouldn't be surprised if Rachel Getting Married won this, because it is indie and pretentious, and by a girl. Maybe Frozen River too.
There are a lot of other categories I don't really care about, so blah blah blah...
Best First Feature: Synecdoche, New York. Are you kidding? It's Charlie Kaufman. The ISAs may be ~~edgy~~ but who the heck has heard of any of these other movies?
Best Actor: Sean Penn in Milk. I think this group is going to love the hell out of Milk.
Best Actress: I can't tell if Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married is ~~edgy~~ enough for them. I mean, the film is ~~edgy~~ in the way that the ISAs are, but Anne Hathaway is OMG famous. I think I'll predict Melissa Leo in Frozen River here, but wouldn't be surprised with either woman.
Best Picture: Rachel Getting Married, meh. I hope there's an upset here.
Best Supporting Actress: Rosemarie DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married. I think Penelope might be a little too mainstream-y for them here, and they always like showing how ~~edgy~~ (but not really because they are totally predictable) they are.
Best Supporting Actor: James Franco in Milk. Like I said... they're ~~edgy~~, but they're not that edgy.
Best Director: Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married. I think it's going to clean up and that's actually kind of unfortunate, because the film furthers some of the worst "stereotypes" about tiny indie movies. Alternatively, Courtney Hunt could win for Frozen River so they could be like, "Look! We gave the award to a girl!!! We are so ~~edgy~~!!!!!!!!"
Best Screenplay: Vicky Cristina Barcelona. The only other one I could see upsetting here is Synecdoche, New York.
Best First Screenplay: Milk. This was a tough call. I wouldn't be surprised if Rachel Getting Married won this, because it is indie and pretentious, and by a girl. Maybe Frozen River too.
There are a lot of other categories I don't really care about, so blah blah blah...
Best First Feature: Synecdoche, New York. Are you kidding? It's Charlie Kaufman. The ISAs may be ~~edgy~~ but who the heck has heard of any of these other movies?
Best Actor: Sean Penn in Milk. I think this group is going to love the hell out of Milk.
Best Actress: I can't tell if Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married is ~~edgy~~ enough for them. I mean, the film is ~~edgy~~ in the way that the ISAs are, but Anne Hathaway is OMG famous. I think I'll predict Melissa Leo in Frozen River here, but wouldn't be surprised with either woman.
Best Picture: Rachel Getting Married, meh. I hope there's an upset here.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Yay for my BAFTA predix.
Woot. Actual winners, in order: Slumdog, Man on Wire, Boyle, Rourke, Winslet (Reader), Ledger, Cruz, In Bruges, Slumdog.
The voting for Best British Film will never make sense to me. Did Slumdog really win, but they didn't count it because it had already won Best Film, or something...?
Mickey winning was a nice surprise. I'm weirdly rooting for him, even though I haven't seen his movie; the trailer/commercial of The Wrestler is still so powerful, even after I've seen it ten thousand times. Sean was great and I fully expect him to make my final line-ups, but he's not so good he deserves to dominate awards season. Like the rest of Milk, everything was great but nothing pushed it to extraordinary (I do love how unapologetically gay the film was, though). I still think Sean will take the Oscar, but it'll be close.
In Bruges winning Best Original Screenplay = LOVE. The more I think about that film, the more I love it; it was black-bleak dark comedy done right (I'm looking at you, Heathers, you piece of misanthropic, desperately unfunny shit).
Angelina Jolie's dress was like totally wacked out and AMAZING. Here is a photo of it, sadly the best I was able to encounter. I wish she would wear crazily interesting stuff more often as opposed to gray/navy potato sacks. Get in touch with your inner Bjork, Angelina!
The voting for Best British Film will never make sense to me. Did Slumdog really win, but they didn't count it because it had already won Best Film, or something...?
Mickey winning was a nice surprise. I'm weirdly rooting for him, even though I haven't seen his movie; the trailer/commercial of The Wrestler is still so powerful, even after I've seen it ten thousand times. Sean was great and I fully expect him to make my final line-ups, but he's not so good he deserves to dominate awards season. Like the rest of Milk, everything was great but nothing pushed it to extraordinary (I do love how unapologetically gay the film was, though). I still think Sean will take the Oscar, but it'll be close.
In Bruges winning Best Original Screenplay = LOVE. The more I think about that film, the more I love it; it was black-bleak dark comedy done right (I'm looking at you, Heathers, you piece of misanthropic, desperately unfunny shit).
Angelina Jolie's dress was like totally wacked out and AMAZING. Here is a photo of it, sadly the best I was able to encounter. I wish she would wear crazily interesting stuff more often as opposed to gray/navy potato sacks. Get in touch with your inner Bjork, Angelina!
Saturday, January 24, 2009
"To be laughed at in January 2009."
Well, let's laugh at 'em then.
Best Picture: 2/5! (Milk and The Reader)
Best Director: 1/5 (Van Sant)
Best Actor: 2/5! (Penn and Langella)
Best Actress: 2.5/5! (Jolie, Steep, Winslet but for the wrong movie)
Best Supporting Actor: 2.5/5! (Brolin, Ledger, Downey Jr. but for the wrong movie)
Best Supporting Actress: 1/5! Maybe 1.5! (Davis, and I predicted Winslet for The Reader here)
So, not as FAAAAAILtastic as what I can remember predicting the year before. "What will come out of nowhere and be brilliant and loved by the Academy"? Slumdog Millionaire! See, I know there's always one film nominated for BP that we've never heard of in January of that year. And sadly, yes, Miracle at St. Anna sucked (apparently, I haven't seen it) and failed horribly. ;_;
Best Picture: 2/5! (Milk and The Reader)
Best Director: 1/5 (Van Sant)
Best Actor: 2/5! (Penn and Langella)
Best Actress: 2.5/5! (Jolie, Steep, Winslet but for the wrong movie)
Best Supporting Actor: 2.5/5! (Brolin, Ledger, Downey Jr. but for the wrong movie)
Best Supporting Actress: 1/5! Maybe 1.5! (Davis, and I predicted Winslet for The Reader here)
So, not as FAAAAAILtastic as what I can remember predicting the year before. "What will come out of nowhere and be brilliant and loved by the Academy"? Slumdog Millionaire! See, I know there's always one film nominated for BP that we've never heard of in January of that year. And sadly, yes, Miracle at St. Anna sucked (apparently, I haven't seen it) and failed horribly. ;_;
Thursday, January 22, 2009
These CRAAAAZY Oscar nominations.
At least every category has a "WUT????" moment.
Also, hey, Academy. I know you complain about how nobody watches you. Well, hey, geniuses, you've got no one to blame but yourselves this year; you had the opportunity to nominate the biggest-grossing picture of the year, which also had the precursors and reviews to back it up but was OMG A SUPERHERO MOVIE, but instead you nominated a film that made $3 million. Good job, that. I am hardly the biggest Dark Knight fan, but AMPAS screwed itself over when it comes to viewership this year; everyone's going to turn their TVs off after Best Supporting Actor. Plus now I'm mad cuz I only saw ONE Best Picture nominee, and that's likely how it will be until Oscar night. BLAAAAAH. Anyway.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Reaction: Raise your hand if you thought The Reader had a snowball's chance in hell. Hey, Harvey, put your hand down in the back there, you don't count. I know I had it on my "potentials" list but if I had to rank them, it would have been #10 (1. Slumdog, 2. Button, 3. Frost/Nixon, 4. Dark Knight, 5. Milk, 6. Doubt, 7. Gran Torino, 8. Revolutionary Road, 9. Wall-E, 10. The Reader, or something like that). Damn. Though a few people have smartly pointed out that Minghella AND Pollack sympathy may have catapaulted The Reader higher. Looking at the comments about the nominations on the Carpetbagger over at the NYTimes, OMG, EVERYONE hated Benjamin Button with a passion. I think it's very very very love/hate and it won't be able to carve out a win. But hey, who knows.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Dark horse: Milk, I think Hollywood's pissed at Prop 8 for understandable reasons.
I predicted: Curious Case..., The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire 4/5
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Reaction: A round of applause for Daldry, who's gotten three Best Directing nominations from the three movies he's done. Damn. I like how his reaction to the nomination was something along the lines of "THANK YOU KATE WINSLET!!!!!!!!!!"
Will win: Danny Boyle.
Dark horse: David Fincher. I might be predicting him if apparently he wasn't a major asshole that everyone hated.
I predicted: Aronofsky, Boyle, Fincher, Howard, Nolan. 3/5
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Reaction: Not surprised Jenkins got in, but SHOCKED they left Eastwood out in the cold so harshly (Gran Torino got nothing, and Changeling very little). I'd say Penn's odds for winning racheted up with how much the Academy liked his film, but to be honest I don't know if they're going to be happy giving him a second Oscar when he clearly seems extraordinarily cavalier about the whole thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do that, but the Academy definitely won't appreciate it.
Will win: At this point I'll just say Mickey Rourke.
Dark horse: Penn.
I predicted: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke. 4/5
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Reaction: It's kind of awesome that the Academy, for once, said "FUCK YOU CATEGORY FRAUD!!!" and nominated someone where they were supposed to be in terms of category placement, at least according to what I've heard because I haven't seen the movie. If only they hadn't had a flagrant case of that every year since at least 2004 (Jamie Foxx in Collateral, Jake Gyllenhaal, Jennifer Hudson/Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Casey Affleck)... Anyway, I kind of feel more comfortable with saying Kate will win for The Reader in lead than saying Kate would have won for Revolutionary Road if she was also nominated in supporting for The Reader. Does that make sense? At any rate, GO KATE!!!! And yes, Melissa Leo climbed out of obscurity to snatch a nomination from Cate Blanchett in a movie that got 13 nominations. Girlfriend can be proud of that. Oh, and ladies and gentlemen... Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway! Puketastic. Hey, I think I'll go see that great opus of American film starring two incredibly talented young Oscar-nominated stars, Bride Wars. Again, puketastic.
Will win: ........it feels so weird to predict Kate Winslet.
Dark horse: Meryl's gonna win three someday, right? But hopefully not this one.
I predicted: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Winslet (Revolutionary Road). That's 3.5, right? :P
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Reaction: I wasn't expecting Revolutionary Road's only major Oscar nomination to be in Supporting Actor, hah, though I'm told his role was the kind of role the Academy usually loves. I'm not THAT shocked Patel was snubbed; I mean, clearly the Globes loved Slumdog too and he couldn't get in there either. Despite the general nose-in-the-air, middle-finger-brandished from AMPAS to The Dark Knight, I still think Heath's the closest thing to a lock we have this year.
Will win: Heath Ledger.
Dark horse: Don't think I need one, but Robert Downey Jr.
I predicted: Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel. 4/5
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Reaction: Nobody was probably happier this morning to see Kate Winslet be moved to leading than these five ladies. It throws the race wide open. HI JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will win: Viola Davis. It just seems like the kind of performance the Academy will love, from what I've heard. Plus the film got multiple nominations, and this win seems the most likely.
Dark horse: Penelope Cruz. And it was a tough call, but if they couldn't nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a freaking Woody Allen movie, for Original Screenplay, maybe they didn't like her movie very much.
I predicted: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet. 4/5
Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E
Reaction: It's surprising Happy-Go-Lucky's script got in, but not Hawkins. Oh well. I've seen bits and pieces of her performance, and I gotta say that though I'm reserving full judgement until I see the movie, yes it was an extremely vibrant performance, but also an INCREDIBLY ANNOYING one. I'm sad that Vicky Cristina Barcelona didn't get in - it was a terrific movie and script, and WOODY ALLEN! - but thrilled for In Bruges and Wall-E. Milk's script was good, but nothing special. Like the movie. It was very good and well-made, but nothing about it particularly pushed it into the stratosphere. I gotta say that Frozen River looks sooooo fucking boring. I'm sure it's good. But I have NOOOO DESIRE to see it!
Will win: Wall-E? Please? This is more than likely wishful thinking.
Dark horse: Milk
I predicted: In Bruges, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler. 3/5
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Reaction: Uh... sure? This seems like the only category without serious WTFery going on.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Dark horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I predicted: Curious Case..., Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. 4/5
So what have we learned, kiddies? The Oscars go crazy sometimes, and even snub Clint Eastwood and Cate Blanchett! I guess "Never underestimate Harvey" is the new "Never underestimate Clint Eastwood", which was probably the new "Never underestimate Harvey" to begin with, so, you know, cyclical! Oh, and never use me to bet on your Oscar pool.
Also, hey, Academy. I know you complain about how nobody watches you. Well, hey, geniuses, you've got no one to blame but yourselves this year; you had the opportunity to nominate the biggest-grossing picture of the year, which also had the precursors and reviews to back it up but was OMG A SUPERHERO MOVIE, but instead you nominated a film that made $3 million. Good job, that. I am hardly the biggest Dark Knight fan, but AMPAS screwed itself over when it comes to viewership this year; everyone's going to turn their TVs off after Best Supporting Actor. Plus now I'm mad cuz I only saw ONE Best Picture nominee, and that's likely how it will be until Oscar night. BLAAAAAH. Anyway.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Reaction: Raise your hand if you thought The Reader had a snowball's chance in hell. Hey, Harvey, put your hand down in the back there, you don't count. I know I had it on my "potentials" list but if I had to rank them, it would have been #10 (1. Slumdog, 2. Button, 3. Frost/Nixon, 4. Dark Knight, 5. Milk, 6. Doubt, 7. Gran Torino, 8. Revolutionary Road, 9. Wall-E, 10. The Reader, or something like that). Damn. Though a few people have smartly pointed out that Minghella AND Pollack sympathy may have catapaulted The Reader higher. Looking at the comments about the nominations on the Carpetbagger over at the NYTimes, OMG, EVERYONE hated Benjamin Button with a passion. I think it's very very very love/hate and it won't be able to carve out a win. But hey, who knows.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Dark horse: Milk, I think Hollywood's pissed at Prop 8 for understandable reasons.
I predicted: Curious Case..., The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire 4/5
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Reaction: A round of applause for Daldry, who's gotten three Best Directing nominations from the three movies he's done. Damn. I like how his reaction to the nomination was something along the lines of "THANK YOU KATE WINSLET!!!!!!!!!!"
Will win: Danny Boyle.
Dark horse: David Fincher. I might be predicting him if apparently he wasn't a major asshole that everyone hated.
I predicted: Aronofsky, Boyle, Fincher, Howard, Nolan. 3/5
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Reaction: Not surprised Jenkins got in, but SHOCKED they left Eastwood out in the cold so harshly (Gran Torino got nothing, and Changeling very little). I'd say Penn's odds for winning racheted up with how much the Academy liked his film, but to be honest I don't know if they're going to be happy giving him a second Oscar when he clearly seems extraordinarily cavalier about the whole thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do that, but the Academy definitely won't appreciate it.
Will win: At this point I'll just say Mickey Rourke.
Dark horse: Penn.
I predicted: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke. 4/5
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Reaction: It's kind of awesome that the Academy, for once, said "FUCK YOU CATEGORY FRAUD!!!" and nominated someone where they were supposed to be in terms of category placement, at least according to what I've heard because I haven't seen the movie. If only they hadn't had a flagrant case of that every year since at least 2004 (Jamie Foxx in Collateral, Jake Gyllenhaal, Jennifer Hudson/Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Casey Affleck)... Anyway, I kind of feel more comfortable with saying Kate will win for The Reader in lead than saying Kate would have won for Revolutionary Road if she was also nominated in supporting for The Reader. Does that make sense? At any rate, GO KATE!!!! And yes, Melissa Leo climbed out of obscurity to snatch a nomination from Cate Blanchett in a movie that got 13 nominations. Girlfriend can be proud of that. Oh, and ladies and gentlemen... Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway! Puketastic. Hey, I think I'll go see that great opus of American film starring two incredibly talented young Oscar-nominated stars, Bride Wars. Again, puketastic.
Will win: ........it feels so weird to predict Kate Winslet.
Dark horse: Meryl's gonna win three someday, right? But hopefully not this one.
I predicted: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Winslet (Revolutionary Road). That's 3.5, right? :P
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Reaction: I wasn't expecting Revolutionary Road's only major Oscar nomination to be in Supporting Actor, hah, though I'm told his role was the kind of role the Academy usually loves. I'm not THAT shocked Patel was snubbed; I mean, clearly the Globes loved Slumdog too and he couldn't get in there either. Despite the general nose-in-the-air, middle-finger-brandished from AMPAS to The Dark Knight, I still think Heath's the closest thing to a lock we have this year.
Will win: Heath Ledger.
Dark horse: Don't think I need one, but Robert Downey Jr.
I predicted: Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel. 4/5
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Reaction: Nobody was probably happier this morning to see Kate Winslet be moved to leading than these five ladies. It throws the race wide open. HI JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will win: Viola Davis. It just seems like the kind of performance the Academy will love, from what I've heard. Plus the film got multiple nominations, and this win seems the most likely.
Dark horse: Penelope Cruz. And it was a tough call, but if they couldn't nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a freaking Woody Allen movie, for Original Screenplay, maybe they didn't like her movie very much.
I predicted: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet. 4/5
Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E
Reaction: It's surprising Happy-Go-Lucky's script got in, but not Hawkins. Oh well. I've seen bits and pieces of her performance, and I gotta say that though I'm reserving full judgement until I see the movie, yes it was an extremely vibrant performance, but also an INCREDIBLY ANNOYING one. I'm sad that Vicky Cristina Barcelona didn't get in - it was a terrific movie and script, and WOODY ALLEN! - but thrilled for In Bruges and Wall-E. Milk's script was good, but nothing special. Like the movie. It was very good and well-made, but nothing about it particularly pushed it into the stratosphere. I gotta say that Frozen River looks sooooo fucking boring. I'm sure it's good. But I have NOOOO DESIRE to see it!
Will win: Wall-E? Please? This is more than likely wishful thinking.
Dark horse: Milk
I predicted: In Bruges, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler. 3/5
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Reaction: Uh... sure? This seems like the only category without serious WTFery going on.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Dark horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I predicted: Curious Case..., Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. 4/5
So what have we learned, kiddies? The Oscars go crazy sometimes, and even snub Clint Eastwood and Cate Blanchett! I guess "Never underestimate Harvey" is the new "Never underestimate Clint Eastwood", which was probably the new "Never underestimate Harvey" to begin with, so, you know, cyclical! Oh, and never use me to bet on your Oscar pool.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Final, ultimate Oscar predictions of craziness.
In EVERYTHING! So we can laugh at how I get like 4/100 things right.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case...
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Original Screenplay
In Bruges
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
The Wrestler
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Art Direction
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Milk
Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Best Costume Design
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Other Boleyn Girl
Revolutionary Road
Sex and the City
Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Best Original Song
Bolt: "I Thought I Lost You"
Gran Torino: "Gran Torino"
Slumdog Millionaire: "Jai Ho"
Wall-E: "Down to Earth"
The Wrestler: "The Wrestler"
I badly want to predict "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" from Hamlet 2 but even I'm not that insane.
Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Best Sound Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
Best Animated Film
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
Best Foreign Film
The only category I'll skip out on because I don't even know what's eligible.
We'll see tomorrow morning.........
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case...
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Original Screenplay
In Bruges
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
The Wrestler
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Art Direction
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Milk
Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Best Costume Design
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Other Boleyn Girl
Revolutionary Road
Sex and the City
Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Best Original Song
Bolt: "I Thought I Lost You"
Gran Torino: "Gran Torino"
Slumdog Millionaire: "Jai Ho"
Wall-E: "Down to Earth"
The Wrestler: "The Wrestler"
I badly want to predict "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" from Hamlet 2 but even I'm not that insane.
Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Best Sound Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
Best Animated Film
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
Best Foreign Film
The only category I'll skip out on because I don't even know what's eligible.
We'll see tomorrow morning.........
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Possible Oscar nominees analysis.
Best Picture for right now. I'll be analyzing up to ten of the most likely candidates for whatever categories in their pros, cons, and whether I think they're "in" or not.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Big epic film and there's really nothing else this year like that (Australia failed miserably, after all). Got tons of precursors and it's sure to get a ton of technical nominations even if it misses out on the big prize. Buzzed for a long time a la Atonement.
Cons: The hype is moving away from it. Vocal dissenters. For a big epic romance, it's too cynical at times (well, I've heard that from people, I haven't actually seen the film... d'oh) and doesn't move people to tears. The fact that Cate Blanchett can't get any kind of nominations for it makes me wonder how really loved it is.
Do I think it's in? Yes, definitely. The hype's been too big for too long, and the box office is quite good. I think at this point it's a long shot for the win, but that's a totally different animal.
The Dark Knight
Pros: The Joker The Joker The Joker!!! Tremendous box office. Hype that it actually lived up to! Talked about all the time, even though it came out during the summer. It's already out on DVD. Lots of tech nods and it's doing well in precursors.
Cons: Superhero movie. It's a sequel. No Globes support.
Do I think it's in? Yes but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't get in. The Academy is snobby and old.
Doubt
Pros: Certain to get at least three Oscar nominations for acting and possibly/probably four. Meryl Streep and recent Academy favorite PSH. The play won both the Tony and the Pulitzer. Between this and the other "play" nominee, it has the sparklier cast and a bigger box office intake.
Cons: Most say it's much better on the stage. Lack of precursors. The other "play" nominee is directed by Ron Howard.
Do I think it's in? Um... hmm. I predicted it, but I'm not sure if I see people going for this AND Frost/Nixon. Maybe I'll do one final round of predictions later, or something. For now, I'll say no.
Frost/Nixon
Pros: Respected play and cast. Ron Howard. Biopic. Precursor awards.
Cons: A tiny box office and it probably plays better on stage.
Do I think it's in? Yes. It has no chance of winning, but the precursors are really strong for a film that was very weak at the box office.
Gran Torino
Pros: It's doing the best of all these movies around the time Oscar ballots are due. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Many people are talking about this suddenly, according to quite a few articles and... people I've actually overheard around talking about it.
Cons: I dunno how much I believe a bunch of articles, especially with virtually no precursor attention.
Do I think it's in? No, but it's probably one to watch out for.
Milk
Pros: Biopic. Hype that it lived up to. Timely, especially for California/Los Angeles. The Academy probably wants to apologize for Brokeback Mountain's loss though it really doesn't need to. Precursors. Sean Penn is a sure nominee.
Cons: SUPER GAY. I feel like the plethora of films in December took a lot of focus off this one.
Do I think it's in? Probably, but along with The Dark Knight I think it's the film that's most in danger.
The Reader
Pros: WWII/Holocaust movie, plus respected director Stephen Daldry.
Cons: Got pretty much ignored in all the December releases because its release was so small. The sex scenes.
Do I think it's in? No.
Revolutionary Road
Pros: Kate & Leo united and we all know what happened last time. Ample attention from the Globes. Buzzed for a long time a la Atonement.
Cons: Pretty much ignored in the precursors save the Globes. Not fantastic reviews. Tiny box office.
Do I think it's in? No. But I'll never let go, Jack. I'll never let go!
Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Great reviews, everyone seems to love it from snobby reviewers to laymen. Good box office. Tons of precursor attention including a sweep at the Globes.
Cons: None I can really think of. I have noticed a few detractors online but none in real life to be honest.
Do I think it's in? Yes, it's about as much of a lock as you can get, and right now it's the film to beat.
Wall-E
Pros: Critically adored and a great box office. If '80s and '90s Disney could get a Best Picture nomination, why can't '00s Pixar?!?!
Cons: It's an animated movie.
Do I think it's in? No. But I wish it was ;_;
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Big epic film and there's really nothing else this year like that (Australia failed miserably, after all). Got tons of precursors and it's sure to get a ton of technical nominations even if it misses out on the big prize. Buzzed for a long time a la Atonement.
Cons: The hype is moving away from it. Vocal dissenters. For a big epic romance, it's too cynical at times (well, I've heard that from people, I haven't actually seen the film... d'oh) and doesn't move people to tears. The fact that Cate Blanchett can't get any kind of nominations for it makes me wonder how really loved it is.
Do I think it's in? Yes, definitely. The hype's been too big for too long, and the box office is quite good. I think at this point it's a long shot for the win, but that's a totally different animal.
The Dark Knight
Pros: The Joker The Joker The Joker!!! Tremendous box office. Hype that it actually lived up to! Talked about all the time, even though it came out during the summer. It's already out on DVD. Lots of tech nods and it's doing well in precursors.
Cons: Superhero movie. It's a sequel. No Globes support.
Do I think it's in? Yes but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't get in. The Academy is snobby and old.
Doubt
Pros: Certain to get at least three Oscar nominations for acting and possibly/probably four. Meryl Streep and recent Academy favorite PSH. The play won both the Tony and the Pulitzer. Between this and the other "play" nominee, it has the sparklier cast and a bigger box office intake.
Cons: Most say it's much better on the stage. Lack of precursors. The other "play" nominee is directed by Ron Howard.
Do I think it's in? Um... hmm. I predicted it, but I'm not sure if I see people going for this AND Frost/Nixon. Maybe I'll do one final round of predictions later, or something. For now, I'll say no.
Frost/Nixon
Pros: Respected play and cast. Ron Howard. Biopic. Precursor awards.
Cons: A tiny box office and it probably plays better on stage.
Do I think it's in? Yes. It has no chance of winning, but the precursors are really strong for a film that was very weak at the box office.
Gran Torino
Pros: It's doing the best of all these movies around the time Oscar ballots are due. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Many people are talking about this suddenly, according to quite a few articles and... people I've actually overheard around talking about it.
Cons: I dunno how much I believe a bunch of articles, especially with virtually no precursor attention.
Do I think it's in? No, but it's probably one to watch out for.
Milk
Pros: Biopic. Hype that it lived up to. Timely, especially for California/Los Angeles. The Academy probably wants to apologize for Brokeback Mountain's loss though it really doesn't need to. Precursors. Sean Penn is a sure nominee.
Cons: SUPER GAY. I feel like the plethora of films in December took a lot of focus off this one.
Do I think it's in? Probably, but along with The Dark Knight I think it's the film that's most in danger.
The Reader
Pros: WWII/Holocaust movie, plus respected director Stephen Daldry.
Cons: Got pretty much ignored in all the December releases because its release was so small. The sex scenes.
Do I think it's in? No.
Revolutionary Road
Pros: Kate & Leo united and we all know what happened last time. Ample attention from the Globes. Buzzed for a long time a la Atonement.
Cons: Pretty much ignored in the precursors save the Globes. Not fantastic reviews. Tiny box office.
Do I think it's in? No. But I'll never let go, Jack. I'll never let go!
Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Great reviews, everyone seems to love it from snobby reviewers to laymen. Good box office. Tons of precursor attention including a sweep at the Globes.
Cons: None I can really think of. I have noticed a few detractors online but none in real life to be honest.
Do I think it's in? Yes, it's about as much of a lock as you can get, and right now it's the film to beat.
Wall-E
Pros: Critically adored and a great box office. If '80s and '90s Disney could get a Best Picture nomination, why can't '00s Pixar?!?!
Cons: It's an animated movie.
Do I think it's in? No. But I wish it was ;_;
Saturday, January 10, 2009
My dad, sayin' dumb stuff.
I love my parents. But they are crazy. Today I was talking to my dad (online) and the conversation basically went like this:
Me: Neil Patrick Harris is hosting Saturday Night Live tonight!!! YAY!!!!
Dad: He is a has-been.
Me: WHAT.
Dad: Yes. He is gay. So now he will never play a straight character again.
Me: ... He's kind of a manwhore on How I Met Your Mother.
Dad: But it's not believable.
Me: Do you even watch the show?
Dad: No. But he is not able to accurately convince people that he is attracted to women, because he's really attracted to men.
Me: Oookay. Well, he gets tons of critical praise and award nominations (unfortunately, he doesn't have too many awards because of Jeremy Piven LOL) for his role.
Dad: Right. But he's still not convincing to the public and he will still never be a romantic hero. Because he is gay.
Me: ... Jake Gyllenhaal, Heath Ledger, Sean Penn, and James Franco aren't gay, but does that mean they're not convincing in Brokeback Mountain and Milk?
Dad: They didn't show affection or physical attraction in either of those movies. *
Me: ............... (tent. scene.)
* He didn't see Milk. He saw Brokeback Mountain and plays the soundtrack like, a lot. Keep in mind, I'm pretty sure my dad's not homophobic.
Me: Neil Patrick Harris is hosting Saturday Night Live tonight!!! YAY!!!!
Dad: He is a has-been.
Me: WHAT.
Dad: Yes. He is gay. So now he will never play a straight character again.
Me: ... He's kind of a manwhore on How I Met Your Mother.
Dad: But it's not believable.
Me: Do you even watch the show?
Dad: No. But he is not able to accurately convince people that he is attracted to women, because he's really attracted to men.
Me: Oookay. Well, he gets tons of critical praise and award nominations (unfortunately, he doesn't have too many awards because of Jeremy Piven LOL) for his role.
Dad: Right. But he's still not convincing to the public and he will still never be a romantic hero. Because he is gay.
Me: ... Jake Gyllenhaal, Heath Ledger, Sean Penn, and James Franco aren't gay, but does that mean they're not convincing in Brokeback Mountain and Milk?
Dad: They didn't show affection or physical attraction in either of those movies. *
Me: ............... (tent. scene.)
* He didn't see Milk. He saw Brokeback Mountain and plays the soundtrack like, a lot. Keep in mind, I'm pretty sure my dad's not homophobic.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
I was very impressed...
...by the trailer to The Soloist, playing before Burn After Reading. I was expecting the movie, based on the description alone, to be ridiculously sentimental, saccharine mush, but it doesn't look that way from the trailer (though the mention of Julliard and homeless together still puts me into a panic over shitty-ass August Rush). I should have known: RDJ don't do crap, right?
Milk also looks great. If it's as good as the trailer implies it is, hopefully it has all the success of Brokeback Mountain...
Finally, The Brothers Bloom looks like a riot. Or rather, Rachel Weisz does in it. Another Best Supporting Actress Oscar? Unlikely, but we'll see.
Milk also looks great. If it's as good as the trailer implies it is, hopefully it has all the success of Brokeback Mountain...
Finally, The Brothers Bloom looks like a riot. Or rather, Rachel Weisz does in it. Another Best Supporting Actress Oscar? Unlikely, but we'll see.
And, of course, here are the trailers:
Milk:
The Soloist:
The Brothers Bloom:
(New Jersey jokes are always funny.)
Saturday, July 19, 2008
July Oscar Predix.
Best Picture
Changeling
Defiance
Milk
Miracle at St. Anna
Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Milk
Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Spike Lee - Miracle at St. Anna
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Edward Zwick - Defiance
Nothing more would amuse me than an Eastwood/Lee bitchdown here.
Prediction at this point: Van Sant - Milk
Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro - The Argentine
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Prediction at this point: Del Toro - The Argentine
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Natalie Portman - Brothers
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Bell - Defiance
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon
Prediction at this point: Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona (ugh)
Viola Davis - Doubt
Amy Ryan - Changeling
Debra Winger - Rachel Getting Married
Prediction at this point: Davis - Doubt
Best Original Screenplay
Changeling
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Wall-E
Prediction at this point: Wall-E
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
House of Lies
Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Revolutionary Road
Why am I ignoring The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Australia in the majority of the major categories? No idea.
Changeling
Defiance
Milk
Miracle at St. Anna
Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Milk
Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Spike Lee - Miracle at St. Anna
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Edward Zwick - Defiance
Nothing more would amuse me than an Eastwood/Lee bitchdown here.
Prediction at this point: Van Sant - Milk
Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro - The Argentine
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Prediction at this point: Del Toro - The Argentine
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Natalie Portman - Brothers
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Bell - Defiance
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon
Prediction at this point: Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona (ugh)
Viola Davis - Doubt
Amy Ryan - Changeling
Debra Winger - Rachel Getting Married
Prediction at this point: Davis - Doubt
Best Original Screenplay
Changeling
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Wall-E
Prediction at this point: Wall-E
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
House of Lies
Revolutionary Road
Prediction at this point: Revolutionary Road
Why am I ignoring The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Australia in the majority of the major categories? No idea.
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