Best Picture for right now. I'll be analyzing up to ten of the most likely candidates for whatever categories in their pros, cons, and whether I think they're "in" or not.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Big epic film and there's really nothing else this year like that (Australia failed miserably, after all). Got tons of precursors and it's sure to get a ton of technical nominations even if it misses out on the big prize. Buzzed for a long time a la Atonement.
Cons: The hype is moving away from it. Vocal dissenters. For a big epic romance, it's too cynical at times (well, I've heard that from people, I haven't actually seen the film... d'oh) and doesn't move people to tears. The fact that Cate Blanchett can't get any kind of nominations for it makes me wonder how really loved it is.
Do I think it's in? Yes, definitely. The hype's been too big for too long, and the box office is quite good. I think at this point it's a long shot for the win, but that's a totally different animal.
The Dark Knight
Pros: The Joker The Joker The Joker!!! Tremendous box office. Hype that it actually lived up to! Talked about all the time, even though it came out during the summer. It's already out on DVD. Lots of tech nods and it's doing well in precursors.
Cons: Superhero movie. It's a sequel. No Globes support.
Do I think it's in? Yes but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't get in. The Academy is snobby and old.
Doubt
Pros: Certain to get at least three Oscar nominations for acting and possibly/probably four. Meryl Streep and recent Academy favorite PSH. The play won both the Tony and the Pulitzer. Between this and the other "play" nominee, it has the sparklier cast and a bigger box office intake.
Cons: Most say it's much better on the stage. Lack of precursors. The other "play" nominee is directed by Ron Howard.
Do I think it's in? Um... hmm. I predicted it, but I'm not sure if I see people going for this AND Frost/Nixon. Maybe I'll do one final round of predictions later, or something. For now, I'll say no.
Frost/Nixon
Pros: Respected play and cast. Ron Howard. Biopic. Precursor awards.
Cons: A tiny box office and it probably plays better on stage.
Do I think it's in? Yes. It has no chance of winning, but the precursors are really strong for a film that was very weak at the box office.
Gran Torino
Pros: It's doing the best of all these movies around the time Oscar ballots are due. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Many people are talking about this suddenly, according to quite a few articles and... people I've actually overheard around talking about it.
Cons: I dunno how much I believe a bunch of articles, especially with virtually no precursor attention.
Do I think it's in? No, but it's probably one to watch out for.
Milk
Pros: Biopic. Hype that it lived up to. Timely, especially for California/Los Angeles. The Academy probably wants to apologize for Brokeback Mountain's loss though it really doesn't need to. Precursors. Sean Penn is a sure nominee.
Cons: SUPER GAY. I feel like the plethora of films in December took a lot of focus off this one.
Do I think it's in? Probably, but along with The Dark Knight I think it's the film that's most in danger.
The Reader
Pros: WWII/Holocaust movie, plus respected director Stephen Daldry.
Cons: Got pretty much ignored in all the December releases because its release was so small. The sex scenes.
Do I think it's in? No.
Revolutionary Road
Pros: Kate & Leo united and we all know what happened last time. Ample attention from the Globes. Buzzed for a long time a la Atonement.
Cons: Pretty much ignored in the precursors save the Globes. Not fantastic reviews. Tiny box office.
Do I think it's in? No. But I'll never let go, Jack. I'll never let go!
Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Great reviews, everyone seems to love it from snobby reviewers to laymen. Good box office. Tons of precursor attention including a sweep at the Globes.
Cons: None I can really think of. I have noticed a few detractors online but none in real life to be honest.
Do I think it's in? Yes, it's about as much of a lock as you can get, and right now it's the film to beat.
Wall-E
Pros: Critically adored and a great box office. If '80s and '90s Disney could get a Best Picture nomination, why can't '00s Pixar?!?!
Cons: It's an animated movie.
Do I think it's in? No. But I wish it was ;_;
