Amy Adams, Doubt
Pros: They snubbed her for Enchanted. In a film where she's destined to get notice. Got the precursor nominations that matter. She's Jesus.
Cons: She plays the sweet innocent again. Of the four principal characters in her film, she got the worst reviews (not that they were bad but you know). No precursor wins.
Do I think she's in? Yes but I wouldn't be surprised to see her snubbed. She is the definite fifth.
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Pros: In a Woody Allen movie. Great reviews and her buzz never died. A great role. Hollywood glamour for the red carpet.
Cons: Backlash and her buzz is finally dying down in a big way. If the foreign- and VCB-loving Globes didn't give her the award...
Do I think she's in? Yes.
Viola Davis, Doubt
Pros: She owns Meryl Streep in a scene in Doubt. That's all I need to say. (and quite a few precursors including the ones that matter. And it's a Tony-winning role already.) Extremely reliable and underappreciated character actress.
Cons: Um... from what I remember she has a small role, but it's one of those "small but knock-your-socks off" performances, so that doesn't really matter. Hasn't won tons of precursors.
Do I think she's in? Yes.
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Pros: Title role and apparently a large one at that. She's gotten good reviews and several precursors.
Cons: Minus Hathaway, hype seems kind of dead around this film. No precursors that anyone would notice (SAG, BAFTA, Globes).
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: She ages in the movie. Apparently she is extremely lovable too. BFCA and SAG nominations. Reliable and underappreciated character actress.
Cons: Hype is dying down around this movie and nobody was ever really making a big deal about her to begin with. Viola Davis already fulfills their "racially diverse reliable and underappreciated character actress" slot, right?
Do I think she's in? No, but she's #6 and I wouldn't be surprised if she did make an appearance on the 22nd.
Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Fantasy girlfriend character. Very pretty and glamorous on the red carpet. The insane hype for Slumdog Millionaire.
Cons: No precursors other than BAFTA. I don't think her acting is as widely-praised as Patel's.
Do I think she's in? No.
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Pros: AMPAS likes her, and she's playing one of their all-time favorite roles, a hooker/stripper with a heart of gold. Great reviews. She's got several precursors, including winning a bunch of minor ones.
Cons: She missed out on SAG. Rourke's getting most of the attention for the movie.
Do I think she's in? Yes.
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Pros: Kate Winslet. Double Globe win. Several precursor awards. She puts on an accent and deglams/ages. Holocaust/WWII movie. Great reviews.
Cons: She hasn't won all that many of the precursors due to Penelope and Marisa. Speech backlash. Some people may put this role in leading. The film hasn't gotten tons of attention.
Do I think she's in? Yes.
