Josh Brolin, W.
Pros: Biopic. He had a good year this one and last.
Cons: No precursor attention and this movie has been ignored in general.
Do I think he's in? No. I just needed someone else to fill out this list, hah.
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Leo! Kate made a big deal of showing how much she loved him, so maybe the Oscars will want to see them being so adorable together. You know he's getting an Oscar some day.
Cons: No precursor attention.
Do I think he's in? No, but only because it's a crowded year. I wouldn't be shocked if he DID get in though, to be honest.
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Pros: Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. His movie is peaking at the right time.
Cons: Little precursor attention other than NBR. He didn't even get a Globe nod.
Do I think he's in? Yeah. When it comes to the Oscars, underestimate Eastwood at your own peril.
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Pros: Globe winner. A performance that has many people talking about how good he was and how it's his comeback.
Cons: This film is destined to be ignored this awards season except in the weak Musical/Comedy category at the Globes. No precursors other than the Globes. The movie is probably way too dark for Oscar.
Do I think he's in? No, but I'd love it if AMPAS did nominate him. Nah, they wouldn't be that crazy... :(
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Pros: A decent amount of precursors including SAG. Apparently he's extremely good.
Cons: Who in what movie? He lacks the star power of some of his potential competitors such as Pitt, Farrell, Eastwood, and DiCaprio.
Do I think he's in? No, but because of the SAG nod I wouldn't be shocked.
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Pros: Plenty of precursors, including SAG and the Globe. He's the lead in a film that's sure to get attention. His performance was raved. He's in a biopic. He won the Tony for this role.
Cons: Lots of precursor nominations, but Penn and Rourke hog the wins. He's little-known in Hollywood compared to some other people that could be nominated.
Do I think he's in? Yes. The fact that he's in an Oscar movie cancels out the fact that nobody knows who he is.
Sean Penn, Milk
Pros: Tons of precursors (especially the important ones) and precursor wins. It's a biopic and he's OMG A GAY CHARACTER who is also extremely sympathetic. He's Sean Penn. His movie was well-reviewed and sure to get Oscar attention, and his reviews in particular were glowing.
Cons: Not gracious at award shows, and doesn't even have a very good track record when it comes to showing up. He just won in 2003.
Do I think he's in? Absolutely. It's about 50-50 for the Oscar win. Hey, if he wins, I'm sure I've said this like 15 times but whatever, can we go back to 2003 and give his Oscar there to Bill Murray? :(
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Brad Pitt might not be Oscar's superstar but he's a big star and the Oscars love big stars. Titular role in a sure nominee for Best Picture. Precursor nominations that matter.
Cons: His celebrity might detract from his acting. Penn and Rourke hog all the attention.
Do I think he's in? Probably.
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Pros: I've been told he's extremely sympathetic in his role and I can tell that from the trailer alone. Absolutely marvelous reviews. Lots of precursor nominations and many wins too. Globe winner. Comeback kid and Oscar fucking LOVES that.
Cons: Other than the Globe and Chicago, Sean Penn picked up most of the important precursor wins (NY, LA, I'm waiting for SAG).
Do I think he's in? See what I wrote for Penn but ignore everything from "hey, if he wins..." on. :P
