Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Cate Blanchett. In a sure Best Picture nominee.
Cons: Very little precursor attention, including missing the Globe and SAG noms. Maybe they're as tired of her as I am? Dare to dream...
Do I think she's in? Actually, I do. Underestimate Cate Blanchett at your peril when it comes to AMPAS. I'm still shocked she didn't actually win last year.
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Pros: Great reviews. Looks great on the red carpet/hot young thing. She plays a drug addict and OMG that's so edgy from a former Disney princess or whatever. Lots of precursors, including all the important ones.
Cons: Not a sympathetic character. No one seems to be interested in her film apart from this performance. And hi, welcome to my bias talking, but "Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway"? Girl, please.
Do I think she's in? Unfortunately. I really shouldn't insult her so promiscuously when I haven't even seen the darn movie, hah.
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Pros: Mostly great reviews and she's in a Mike Leigh film. Winning at the Globes can't hurt. Many precursors (NY, LA, Boston). A lot of people find her character extremely lovable.
Cons: ...and a lot find her character extremely annoying. Snubbed by BAFTA?!?!?! And SAG. In a small film unlikely to get any other nominations. An unknown up against many big stars.
Do I think she's in? In a lineup of five, I don't, but I won't be surprised at all if she gets in over Blanchett or Jolie. She's my extremely close sixth.
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Pros: She's a distressed mother. In a Clint Eastwood movie. Yeah. Seems to have every important precursor nomination. She's Angelina Jolie and undoubtedly brings star power. They snubbed her for A Mighty Heart last year.
Cons: Hasn't won any precursors that would get her attention. Her star power may work against her... is her snub for The Mighty Heart an indicator that AMPAS doesn't like her rather than something they feel badly for?
Do I think she's in? Yes, but it's not a sure thing.
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Pros: Critical acclaim and a decent amount of precursors for a film so tiny.
Cons: Who in what now?
Do I think she's in? No, she's just too obscure. Though her nomination wouldn't shock me.
Kristin Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Pros: Hey, she's French, and we learned to not underestimate the French last year. A past nominee, so she may look more attractive/familiar to voters when it comes to the smaller films like Leo's or Hawkins'. Globe nom.
Cons: Film is very small and OMG has subtitles. Other than the Globe nom, she doesn't have many precursors.
Do I think she's in? No, the film is too small.
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Pros: MERYL STREEP. Hasn't missed an important precursor award.
Cons: Film and especially performance have detractors, with many saying it's nowhere near close to her work in Sophie's Choice and you know they want this girl to WORK for that third Oscar.
Do I think she's in? Yes. The win may be an uphill battle for her, but let's wait until SAG.
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Kate Winslet, y'all know she's badly overdue. Double Globe win with extremely likable speech. Lots of precursor awards.
Cons: Backlash? The film hasn't gotten tons of attention. I would have said confusion with vote splitting for The Reader, but it seems extremely clear that it's set that her role in that film is supporting while she's lead here.
Do I think she's in? Yes. And wouldn't another double win in one night be glorious? :)
