At least every category has a "WUT????" moment.
Also, hey, Academy. I know you complain about how nobody watches you. Well, hey, geniuses, you've got no one to blame but yourselves this year; you had the opportunity to nominate the biggest-grossing picture of the year, which also had the precursors and reviews to back it up but was OMG A SUPERHERO MOVIE, but instead you nominated a film that made $3 million. Good job, that. I am hardly the biggest Dark Knight fan, but AMPAS screwed itself over when it comes to viewership this year; everyone's going to turn their TVs off after Best Supporting Actor. Plus now I'm mad cuz I only saw ONE Best Picture nominee, and that's likely how it will be until Oscar night. BLAAAAAH. Anyway.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Reaction: Raise your hand if you thought The Reader had a snowball's chance in hell. Hey, Harvey, put your hand down in the back there, you don't count. I know I had it on my "potentials" list but if I had to rank them, it would have been #10 (1. Slumdog, 2. Button, 3. Frost/Nixon, 4. Dark Knight, 5. Milk, 6. Doubt, 7. Gran Torino, 8. Revolutionary Road, 9. Wall-E, 10. The Reader, or something like that). Damn. Though a few people have smartly pointed out that Minghella AND Pollack sympathy may have catapaulted The Reader higher. Looking at the comments about the nominations on the Carpetbagger over at the NYTimes, OMG, EVERYONE hated Benjamin Button with a passion. I think it's very very very love/hate and it won't be able to carve out a win. But hey, who knows.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Dark horse: Milk, I think Hollywood's pissed at Prop 8 for understandable reasons.
I predicted: Curious Case..., The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire 4/5
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Reaction: A round of applause for Daldry, who's gotten three Best Directing nominations from the three movies he's done. Damn. I like how his reaction to the nomination was something along the lines of "THANK YOU KATE WINSLET!!!!!!!!!!"
Will win: Danny Boyle.
Dark horse: David Fincher. I might be predicting him if apparently he wasn't a major asshole that everyone hated.
I predicted: Aronofsky, Boyle, Fincher, Howard, Nolan. 3/5
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Reaction: Not surprised Jenkins got in, but SHOCKED they left Eastwood out in the cold so harshly (Gran Torino got nothing, and Changeling very little). I'd say Penn's odds for winning racheted up with how much the Academy liked his film, but to be honest I don't know if they're going to be happy giving him a second Oscar when he clearly seems extraordinarily cavalier about the whole thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do that, but the Academy definitely won't appreciate it.
Will win: At this point I'll just say Mickey Rourke.
Dark horse: Penn.
I predicted: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke. 4/5
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Reaction: It's kind of awesome that the Academy, for once, said "FUCK YOU CATEGORY FRAUD!!!" and nominated someone where they were supposed to be in terms of category placement, at least according to what I've heard because I haven't seen the movie. If only they hadn't had a flagrant case of that every year since at least 2004 (Jamie Foxx in Collateral, Jake Gyllenhaal, Jennifer Hudson/Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Casey Affleck)... Anyway, I kind of feel more comfortable with saying Kate will win for The Reader in lead than saying Kate would have won for Revolutionary Road if she was also nominated in supporting for The Reader. Does that make sense? At any rate, GO KATE!!!! And yes, Melissa Leo climbed out of obscurity to snatch a nomination from Cate Blanchett in a movie that got 13 nominations. Girlfriend can be proud of that. Oh, and ladies and gentlemen... Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway! Puketastic. Hey, I think I'll go see that great opus of American film starring two incredibly talented young Oscar-nominated stars, Bride Wars. Again, puketastic.
Will win: ........it feels so weird to predict Kate Winslet.
Dark horse: Meryl's gonna win three someday, right? But hopefully not this one.
I predicted: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Winslet (Revolutionary Road). That's 3.5, right? :P
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Reaction: I wasn't expecting Revolutionary Road's only major Oscar nomination to be in Supporting Actor, hah, though I'm told his role was the kind of role the Academy usually loves. I'm not THAT shocked Patel was snubbed; I mean, clearly the Globes loved Slumdog too and he couldn't get in there either. Despite the general nose-in-the-air, middle-finger-brandished from AMPAS to The Dark Knight, I still think Heath's the closest thing to a lock we have this year.
Will win: Heath Ledger.
Dark horse: Don't think I need one, but Robert Downey Jr.
I predicted: Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel. 4/5
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Reaction: Nobody was probably happier this morning to see Kate Winslet be moved to leading than these five ladies. It throws the race wide open. HI JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will win: Viola Davis. It just seems like the kind of performance the Academy will love, from what I've heard. Plus the film got multiple nominations, and this win seems the most likely.
Dark horse: Penelope Cruz. And it was a tough call, but if they couldn't nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a freaking Woody Allen movie, for Original Screenplay, maybe they didn't like her movie very much.
I predicted: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet. 4/5
Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E
Reaction: It's surprising Happy-Go-Lucky's script got in, but not Hawkins. Oh well. I've seen bits and pieces of her performance, and I gotta say that though I'm reserving full judgement until I see the movie, yes it was an extremely vibrant performance, but also an INCREDIBLY ANNOYING one. I'm sad that Vicky Cristina Barcelona didn't get in - it was a terrific movie and script, and WOODY ALLEN! - but thrilled for In Bruges and Wall-E. Milk's script was good, but nothing special. Like the movie. It was very good and well-made, but nothing about it particularly pushed it into the stratosphere. I gotta say that Frozen River looks sooooo fucking boring. I'm sure it's good. But I have NOOOO DESIRE to see it!
Will win: Wall-E? Please? This is more than likely wishful thinking.
Dark horse: Milk
I predicted: In Bruges, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler. 3/5
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Reaction: Uh... sure? This seems like the only category without serious WTFery going on.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Dark horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I predicted: Curious Case..., Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. 4/5
So what have we learned, kiddies? The Oscars go crazy sometimes, and even snub Clint Eastwood and Cate Blanchett! I guess "Never underestimate Harvey" is the new "Never underestimate Clint Eastwood", which was probably the new "Never underestimate Harvey" to begin with, so, you know, cyclical! Oh, and never use me to bet on your Oscar pool.
