I saw Doubt

Thank you internets and those who post movies here, cough cough.

Yeah. Not really much of anything. It seems so lame on screen, whereas it was incredibly powerful on stage. Meryl was... I dunno. I kind of liked that her role came off as almost a parody of a hard-ass nun, because that's what her character came off as and I think she was trying to play to that as best as she could. She certainly wasn't bad, and I can't say "she's not Oscar-worthy" because I haven't seen the other nominees except Winslet, but she doesn't deserve a win. If this is the performance that gets her an Oscar to stand beside hers for Kramer vs. Kramer and especially Sophie's Choice, well um, that's almost kind of embarassing. Her bitchiness was AMAZING though. Like, I would like to BE HER in real life.

JESUS WTF HAPPENED, YOU WERE SO ANNOYING AND NOT GOOD AT ALL.

PSH was okay. He was uneven, which is unlike him ;_; He's usually either GREAT or terrible the whole movie. Here, his performance seemed to just... fluctuate. Ugh. Viola Davis is really the only one who I'm like, "YES, AWARDS!!!!!!!"

RANKINGS OF STUFF I'VE SEEN!
Best Picture: Milk, then The Reader with a large gap
Best Actor: only saw Penn
Best Actress: Winslet, large gap, Streep
Best Supporting Actor: OMG yay for this category!!! Ledger, Brolin, gap but not a huge one, Downey Jr., Hoffman. The last two... I think they are both capable of much better but at the same time, they are hardly embarassing nominations. I applaud the Academy for that Tropic Thunder nom.
Best Supporting Actress: DAVIS, Cruz, large gap, Adams ;_;
Best Original Screenplay: Wall-E, In Bruges, Milk. All three were positively terrific. From what I've seen of Happy-Go-Lucky, it would be far below these other three.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Reader, Doubt

So basically I've seen nothing.

These CRAAAAZY Oscar nominations.

At least every category has a "WUT????" moment.

Also, hey, Academy. I know you complain about how nobody watches you. Well, hey, geniuses, you've got no one to blame but yourselves this year; you had the opportunity to nominate the biggest-grossing picture of the year, which also had the precursors and reviews to back it up but was OMG A SUPERHERO MOVIE, but instead you nominated a film that made $3 million. Good job, that. I am hardly the biggest Dark Knight fan, but AMPAS screwed itself over when it comes to viewership this year; everyone's going to turn their TVs off after Best Supporting Actor. Plus now I'm mad cuz I only saw ONE Best Picture nominee, and that's likely how it will be until Oscar night. BLAAAAAH. Anyway.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Raise your hand if you thought The Reader had a snowball's chance in hell. Hey, Harvey, put your hand down in the back there, you don't count. I know I had it on my "potentials" list but if I had to rank them, it would have been #10 (1. Slumdog, 2. Button, 3. Frost/Nixon, 4. Dark Knight, 5. Milk, 6. Doubt, 7. Gran Torino, 8. Revolutionary Road, 9. Wall-E, 10. The Reader, or something like that). Damn. Though a few people have smartly pointed out that Minghella AND Pollack sympathy may have catapaulted The Reader higher. Looking at the comments about the nominations on the Carpetbagger over at the NYTimes, OMG, EVERYONE hated Benjamin Button with a passion. I think it's very very very love/hate and it won't be able to carve out a win. But hey, who knows.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Dark horse: Milk, I think Hollywood's pissed at Prop 8 for understandable reasons.
I predicted: Curious Case..., The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire 4/5

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Reaction: A round of applause for Daldry, who's gotten three Best Directing nominations from the three movies he's done. Damn. I like how his reaction to the nomination was something along the lines of "THANK YOU KATE WINSLET!!!!!!!!!!"
Will win: Danny Boyle.
Dark horse: David Fincher. I might be predicting him if apparently he wasn't a major asshole that everyone hated.
I predicted: Aronofsky, Boyle, Fincher, Howard, Nolan. 3/5

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Reaction: Not surprised Jenkins got in, but SHOCKED they left Eastwood out in the cold so harshly (Gran Torino got nothing, and Changeling very little). I'd say Penn's odds for winning racheted up with how much the Academy liked his film, but to be honest I don't know if they're going to be happy giving him a second Oscar when he clearly seems extraordinarily cavalier about the whole thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do that, but the Academy definitely won't appreciate it.
Will win: At this point I'll just say Mickey Rourke.
Dark horse: Penn.
I predicted: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke. 4/5

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Reaction: It's kind of awesome that the Academy, for once, said "FUCK YOU CATEGORY FRAUD!!!" and nominated someone where they were supposed to be in terms of category placement, at least according to what I've heard because I haven't seen the movie. If only they hadn't had a flagrant case of that every year since at least 2004 (Jamie Foxx in Collateral, Jake Gyllenhaal, Jennifer Hudson/Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Casey Affleck)... Anyway, I kind of feel more comfortable with saying Kate will win for The Reader in lead than saying Kate would have won for Revolutionary Road if she was also nominated in supporting for The Reader. Does that make sense? At any rate, GO KATE!!!! And yes, Melissa Leo climbed out of obscurity to snatch a nomination from Cate Blanchett in a movie that got 13 nominations. Girlfriend can be proud of that. Oh, and ladies and gentlemen... Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway! Puketastic. Hey, I think I'll go see that great opus of American film starring two incredibly talented young Oscar-nominated stars, Bride Wars. Again, puketastic.
Will win: ........it feels so weird to predict Kate Winslet.
Dark horse: Meryl's gonna win three someday, right? But hopefully not this one.
I predicted: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Winslet (Revolutionary Road). That's 3.5, right? :P

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Reaction: I wasn't expecting Revolutionary Road's only major Oscar nomination to be in Supporting Actor, hah, though I'm told his role was the kind of role the Academy usually loves. I'm not THAT shocked Patel was snubbed; I mean, clearly the Globes loved Slumdog too and he couldn't get in there either. Despite the general nose-in-the-air, middle-finger-brandished from AMPAS to The Dark Knight, I still think Heath's the closest thing to a lock we have this year.
Will win: Heath Ledger.
Dark horse: Don't think I need one, but Robert Downey Jr.
I predicted: Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel. 4/5

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Reaction: Nobody was probably happier this morning to see Kate Winslet be moved to leading than these five ladies. It throws the race wide open. HI JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will win: Viola Davis. It just seems like the kind of performance the Academy will love, from what I've heard. Plus the film got multiple nominations, and this win seems the most likely.
Dark horse: Penelope Cruz. And it was a tough call, but if they couldn't nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a freaking Woody Allen movie, for Original Screenplay, maybe they didn't like her movie very much.
I predicted: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet. 4/5

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E

Reaction: It's surprising Happy-Go-Lucky's script got in, but not Hawkins. Oh well. I've seen bits and pieces of her performance, and I gotta say that though I'm reserving full judgement until I see the movie, yes it was an extremely vibrant performance, but also an INCREDIBLY ANNOYING one. I'm sad that Vicky Cristina Barcelona didn't get in - it was a terrific movie and script, and WOODY ALLEN! - but thrilled for In Bruges and Wall-E. Milk's script was good, but nothing special. Like the movie. It was very good and well-made, but nothing about it particularly pushed it into the stratosphere. I gotta say that Frozen River looks sooooo fucking boring. I'm sure it's good. But I have NOOOO DESIRE to see it!
Will win: Wall-E? Please? This is more than likely wishful thinking.
Dark horse: Milk
I predicted: In Bruges, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler. 3/5

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Uh... sure? This seems like the only category without serious WTFery going on.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Dark horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I predicted: Curious Case..., Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. 4/5

So what have we learned, kiddies? The Oscars go crazy sometimes, and even snub Clint Eastwood and Cate Blanchett! I guess "Never underestimate Harvey" is the new "Never underestimate Clint Eastwood", which was probably the new "Never underestimate Harvey" to begin with, so, you know, cyclical! Oh, and never use me to bet on your Oscar pool.

Analysis part, um, glarg: Best Supporting Actress.

Amy Adams, Doubt
Pros: They snubbed her for Enchanted. In a film where she's destined to get notice. Got the precursor nominations that matter. She's Jesus.
Cons: She plays the sweet innocent again. Of the four principal characters in her film, she got the worst reviews (not that they were bad but you know). No precursor wins.
Do I think she's in? Yes but I wouldn't be surprised to see her snubbed. She is the definite fifth.

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Pros: In a Woody Allen movie. Great reviews and her buzz never died. A great role. Hollywood glamour for the red carpet.
Cons: Backlash and her buzz is finally dying down in a big way. If the foreign- and VCB-loving Globes didn't give her the award...
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Viola Davis, Doubt
Pros: She owns Meryl Streep in a scene in Doubt. That's all I need to say. (and quite a few precursors including the ones that matter. And it's a Tony-winning role already.) Extremely reliable and underappreciated character actress.
Cons: Um... from what I remember she has a small role, but it's one of those "small but knock-your-socks off" performances, so that doesn't really matter. Hasn't won tons of precursors.
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Pros: Title role and apparently a large one at that. She's gotten good reviews and several precursors.
Cons: Minus Hathaway, hype seems kind of dead around this film. No precursors that anyone would notice (SAG, BAFTA, Globes).

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: She ages in the movie. Apparently she is extremely lovable too. BFCA and SAG nominations. Reliable and underappreciated character actress.
Cons: Hype is dying down around this movie and nobody was ever really making a big deal about her to begin with. Viola Davis already fulfills their "racially diverse reliable and underappreciated character actress" slot, right?
Do I think she's in? No, but she's #6 and I wouldn't be surprised if she did make an appearance on the 22nd.

Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Fantasy girlfriend character. Very pretty and glamorous on the red carpet. The insane hype for Slumdog Millionaire.
Cons: No precursors other than BAFTA. I don't think her acting is as widely-praised as Patel's.
Do I think she's in? No.

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Pros: AMPAS likes her, and she's playing one of their all-time favorite roles, a hooker/stripper with a heart of gold. Great reviews. She's got several precursors, including winning a bunch of minor ones.
Cons: She missed out on SAG. Rourke's getting most of the attention for the movie.
Do I think she's in? Yes.

Kate Winslet, The Reader
Pros: Kate Winslet. Double Globe win. Several precursor awards. She puts on an accent and deglams/ages. Holocaust/WWII movie. Great reviews.
Cons: She hasn't won all that many of the precursors due to Penelope and Marisa. Speech backlash. Some people may put this role in leading. The film hasn't gotten tons of attention.
Do I think she's in? Yes.