Major Oscar predix.

I reserve the right to change these up to the ceremony. :P

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
It's got all the hype and many of the precursors. Barring some huge upset, it's got this in the bag. The Curious Case... will continue its trend of being nominated for tons of big things but winning none of those big things.
Alternate: Milk
I've seen/Should win, with my limited viewings in mind: Milk, The Curious Case... (yes, I watched it online a little while ago, and OMG SOOOO BORING and just... not right at all, tonally), and The Reader / Milk
Snubbed: Wall-E

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
See above.
Alternate: David Fincher
I've seen/Should win: Daldry, Fincher, Van Sant / Van Sant
Snubbed: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
It's close with him and Sean Penn. But I think, in the end, the "underdog" story will truly appeal to the voters, those saps. ;) It will be CLOSE, though.
Alternate: Sean Penn
I've seen/Should win: Penn and Pitt / PENN.
Snubbed: Robert Downey Jr., Iron Man. Not kidding.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader
KING OF KINGS! AND LORD OF LORDS!!!!
Alternate: Meryl Streep
I've seen/Should win: Hathaway, Leo, Streep, Winslet. Whoo, almost done! / Winslet
Snubbed: Rebecca Hall or Scarlett Johansson, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I finally saw all of Happy-Go-Lucky, and Sally Hawkins does not deserve to be in this category, sorry.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
The only real, true lock.
Alternate: Don't need one, but PSH
I've seen/Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Ledger
Snubbed: Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married and Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Meh? Good, nomination-worthy, but not OMG GIVE HER AN OSCAR RTM-worthy at all. At least, if they give her an Oscar now, they can get it out of the way. And ha ha, she's not going to get her boyfriend to present it to her. I hope the inane little thing cries about it and not in a good way. Wow, I'm so mean! I can still see any of the nominees here upsetting; Pene's not a huge frontrunner.
Alternate: Viola Davis, Doubt
I've seen/Should win: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson / Davis
Snubbed: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (though I have her in lead)

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
The film will more than likely pick up its only major award here.
Alternate: Wall-E
I've seen / Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Wall-E
Snubbed: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
Get used to "Jai Ho," people. You're going to hear it A LOT on Oscar night when those guys go up to get their 500000 trophies.
Alternate: The Reader
I've seen / Should win: The Curious Case..., Doubt, The Reader / out of those, um, The Reader I guess
Snubbed: Revolutionary Road

Those were my long predictions for the major categories... I'll have a full list up in a few days.

Yay for my BAFTA predix.

Woot. Actual winners, in order: Slumdog, Man on Wire, Boyle, Rourke, Winslet (Reader), Ledger, Cruz, In Bruges, Slumdog.

The voting for Best British Film will never make sense to me. Did Slumdog really win, but they didn't count it because it had already won Best Film, or something...?

Mickey winning was a nice surprise. I'm weirdly rooting for him, even though I haven't seen his movie; the trailer/commercial of The Wrestler is still so powerful, even after I've seen it ten thousand times. Sean was great and I fully expect him to make my final line-ups, but he's not so good he deserves to dominate awards season. Like the rest of Milk, everything was great but nothing pushed it to extraordinary (I do love how unapologetically gay the film was, though). I still think Sean will take the Oscar, but it'll be close.

In Bruges winning Best Original Screenplay = LOVE. The more I think about that film, the more I love it; it was black-bleak dark comedy done right (I'm looking at you, Heathers, you piece of misanthropic, desperately unfunny shit).

Angelina Jolie's dress was like totally wacked out and AMAZING. Here is a photo of it, sadly the best I was able to encounter. I wish she would wear crazily interesting stuff more often as opposed to gray/navy potato sacks. Get in touch with your inner Bjork, Angelina!

These CRAAAAZY Oscar nominations.

At least every category has a "WUT????" moment.

Also, hey, Academy. I know you complain about how nobody watches you. Well, hey, geniuses, you've got no one to blame but yourselves this year; you had the opportunity to nominate the biggest-grossing picture of the year, which also had the precursors and reviews to back it up but was OMG A SUPERHERO MOVIE, but instead you nominated a film that made $3 million. Good job, that. I am hardly the biggest Dark Knight fan, but AMPAS screwed itself over when it comes to viewership this year; everyone's going to turn their TVs off after Best Supporting Actor. Plus now I'm mad cuz I only saw ONE Best Picture nominee, and that's likely how it will be until Oscar night. BLAAAAAH. Anyway.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Raise your hand if you thought The Reader had a snowball's chance in hell. Hey, Harvey, put your hand down in the back there, you don't count. I know I had it on my "potentials" list but if I had to rank them, it would have been #10 (1. Slumdog, 2. Button, 3. Frost/Nixon, 4. Dark Knight, 5. Milk, 6. Doubt, 7. Gran Torino, 8. Revolutionary Road, 9. Wall-E, 10. The Reader, or something like that). Damn. Though a few people have smartly pointed out that Minghella AND Pollack sympathy may have catapaulted The Reader higher. Looking at the comments about the nominations on the Carpetbagger over at the NYTimes, OMG, EVERYONE hated Benjamin Button with a passion. I think it's very very very love/hate and it won't be able to carve out a win. But hey, who knows.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Dark horse: Milk, I think Hollywood's pissed at Prop 8 for understandable reasons.
I predicted: Curious Case..., The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire 4/5

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Reaction: A round of applause for Daldry, who's gotten three Best Directing nominations from the three movies he's done. Damn. I like how his reaction to the nomination was something along the lines of "THANK YOU KATE WINSLET!!!!!!!!!!"
Will win: Danny Boyle.
Dark horse: David Fincher. I might be predicting him if apparently he wasn't a major asshole that everyone hated.
I predicted: Aronofsky, Boyle, Fincher, Howard, Nolan. 3/5

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Reaction: Not surprised Jenkins got in, but SHOCKED they left Eastwood out in the cold so harshly (Gran Torino got nothing, and Changeling very little). I'd say Penn's odds for winning racheted up with how much the Academy liked his film, but to be honest I don't know if they're going to be happy giving him a second Oscar when he clearly seems extraordinarily cavalier about the whole thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do that, but the Academy definitely won't appreciate it.
Will win: At this point I'll just say Mickey Rourke.
Dark horse: Penn.
I predicted: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke. 4/5

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Reaction: It's kind of awesome that the Academy, for once, said "FUCK YOU CATEGORY FRAUD!!!" and nominated someone where they were supposed to be in terms of category placement, at least according to what I've heard because I haven't seen the movie. If only they hadn't had a flagrant case of that every year since at least 2004 (Jamie Foxx in Collateral, Jake Gyllenhaal, Jennifer Hudson/Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Casey Affleck)... Anyway, I kind of feel more comfortable with saying Kate will win for The Reader in lead than saying Kate would have won for Revolutionary Road if she was also nominated in supporting for The Reader. Does that make sense? At any rate, GO KATE!!!! And yes, Melissa Leo climbed out of obscurity to snatch a nomination from Cate Blanchett in a movie that got 13 nominations. Girlfriend can be proud of that. Oh, and ladies and gentlemen... Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway! Puketastic. Hey, I think I'll go see that great opus of American film starring two incredibly talented young Oscar-nominated stars, Bride Wars. Again, puketastic.
Will win: ........it feels so weird to predict Kate Winslet.
Dark horse: Meryl's gonna win three someday, right? But hopefully not this one.
I predicted: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Winslet (Revolutionary Road). That's 3.5, right? :P

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Reaction: I wasn't expecting Revolutionary Road's only major Oscar nomination to be in Supporting Actor, hah, though I'm told his role was the kind of role the Academy usually loves. I'm not THAT shocked Patel was snubbed; I mean, clearly the Globes loved Slumdog too and he couldn't get in there either. Despite the general nose-in-the-air, middle-finger-brandished from AMPAS to The Dark Knight, I still think Heath's the closest thing to a lock we have this year.
Will win: Heath Ledger.
Dark horse: Don't think I need one, but Robert Downey Jr.
I predicted: Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel. 4/5

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Reaction: Nobody was probably happier this morning to see Kate Winslet be moved to leading than these five ladies. It throws the race wide open. HI JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will win: Viola Davis. It just seems like the kind of performance the Academy will love, from what I've heard. Plus the film got multiple nominations, and this win seems the most likely.
Dark horse: Penelope Cruz. And it was a tough call, but if they couldn't nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a freaking Woody Allen movie, for Original Screenplay, maybe they didn't like her movie very much.
I predicted: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet. 4/5

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E

Reaction: It's surprising Happy-Go-Lucky's script got in, but not Hawkins. Oh well. I've seen bits and pieces of her performance, and I gotta say that though I'm reserving full judgement until I see the movie, yes it was an extremely vibrant performance, but also an INCREDIBLY ANNOYING one. I'm sad that Vicky Cristina Barcelona didn't get in - it was a terrific movie and script, and WOODY ALLEN! - but thrilled for In Bruges and Wall-E. Milk's script was good, but nothing special. Like the movie. It was very good and well-made, but nothing about it particularly pushed it into the stratosphere. I gotta say that Frozen River looks sooooo fucking boring. I'm sure it's good. But I have NOOOO DESIRE to see it!
Will win: Wall-E? Please? This is more than likely wishful thinking.
Dark horse: Milk
I predicted: In Bruges, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler. 3/5

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Uh... sure? This seems like the only category without serious WTFery going on.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Dark horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I predicted: Curious Case..., Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. 4/5

So what have we learned, kiddies? The Oscars go crazy sometimes, and even snub Clint Eastwood and Cate Blanchett! I guess "Never underestimate Harvey" is the new "Never underestimate Clint Eastwood", which was probably the new "Never underestimate Harvey" to begin with, so, you know, cyclical! Oh, and never use me to bet on your Oscar pool.

Analysis part 2: Best Actor.

Josh Brolin, W.
Pros: Biopic. He had a good year this one and last.
Cons: No precursor attention and this movie has been ignored in general.
Do I think he's in? No. I just needed someone else to fill out this list, hah.

Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Leo! Kate made a big deal of showing how much she loved him, so maybe the Oscars will want to see them being so adorable together. You know he's getting an Oscar some day.
Cons: No precursor attention.
Do I think he's in? No, but only because it's a crowded year. I wouldn't be shocked if he DID get in though, to be honest.

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Pros: Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. His movie is peaking at the right time.
Cons: Little precursor attention other than NBR. He didn't even get a Globe nod.
Do I think he's in? Yeah. When it comes to the Oscars, underestimate Eastwood at your own peril.

Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Pros: Globe winner. A performance that has many people talking about how good he was and how it's his comeback.
Cons: This film is destined to be ignored this awards season except in the weak Musical/Comedy category at the Globes. No precursors other than the Globes. The movie is probably way too dark for Oscar.
Do I think he's in? No, but I'd love it if AMPAS did nominate him. Nah, they wouldn't be that crazy... :(

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Pros: A decent amount of precursors including SAG. Apparently he's extremely good.
Cons: Who in what movie? He lacks the star power of some of his potential competitors such as Pitt, Farrell, Eastwood, and DiCaprio.
Do I think he's in? No, but because of the SAG nod I wouldn't be shocked.

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Pros: Plenty of precursors, including SAG and the Globe. He's the lead in a film that's sure to get attention. His performance was raved. He's in a biopic. He won the Tony for this role.
Cons: Lots of precursor nominations, but Penn and Rourke hog the wins. He's little-known in Hollywood compared to some other people that could be nominated.
Do I think he's in? Yes. The fact that he's in an Oscar movie cancels out the fact that nobody knows who he is.

Sean Penn, Milk
Pros: Tons of precursors (especially the important ones) and precursor wins. It's a biopic and he's OMG A GAY CHARACTER who is also extremely sympathetic. He's Sean Penn. His movie was well-reviewed and sure to get Oscar attention, and his reviews in particular were glowing.
Cons: Not gracious at award shows, and doesn't even have a very good track record when it comes to showing up. He just won in 2003.
Do I think he's in? Absolutely. It's about 50-50 for the Oscar win. Hey, if he wins, I'm sure I've said this like 15 times but whatever, can we go back to 2003 and give his Oscar there to Bill Murray? :(

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Brad Pitt might not be Oscar's superstar but he's a big star and the Oscars love big stars. Titular role in a sure nominee for Best Picture. Precursor nominations that matter.
Cons: His celebrity might detract from his acting. Penn and Rourke hog all the attention.
Do I think he's in? Probably.

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Pros: I've been told he's extremely sympathetic in his role and I can tell that from the trailer alone. Absolutely marvelous reviews. Lots of precursor nominations and many wins too. Globe winner. Comeback kid and Oscar fucking LOVES that.
Cons: Other than the Globe and Chicago, Sean Penn picked up most of the important precursor wins (NY, LA, I'm waiting for SAG).
Do I think he's in? See what I wrote for Penn but ignore everything from "hey, if he wins..." on. :P

THIS MOVIE LOOKS GREAT!!!!!

Seriously, when Clive Owen appears promiscuously shirtless in a trailer for a movie, I SHOULD BE INFORMED IMMEDIATELY.

Mickey Rourke made me cry in the trailer alone for The Wrestler, too...