Oh DEAR.

I didn't know Robert Downey Jr.'s character in Tropic Thunder was (mostly) based off of Heath Ledger. I assumed it was Russell Crowe. As TV Tropes would say, FUNNY ANEURYSM MOMENT!

Oh. Oh... dear.

I'm watching Ten Things I Hate About You on commercial TV or whatever. And... all of Heath Ledger's appearances have been totally edited out of this version. Look, Heath Ledger's death is really sad. It's still kind of hard to watch Brokeback Mountain. But instead of hiding the fact that he was in certain movies (and having them make no gorran sense), shouldn't we celebrate the contributions he made to his art?

But even worse is, during this ~HEATH LEDGER MUST NOT BE SEEN~ version of Ten Things, they had a commercial break... with a Billy Mays commercial. Um.

No, last one. I swear.

Every time I see this photo or one in this group with the three of them being adorable (I think Sean Penn really did channel the true Harvey Milk... he's been so frankly sweet and charming this whole awards season, as opposed to "XCUSE ME SIR JUDE LAW IS ONE OF OUR FINEST ACTORS AHEM"), I think for a second, "Oh, what, was the winner of Best Supporting Actor too ~busy~ to pose for an adorable 'Oscar winners' photo?" And then I remember and feel like a horrible, horrible person. Which I am.

Major Oscar predix.

I reserve the right to change these up to the ceremony. :P

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
It's got all the hype and many of the precursors. Barring some huge upset, it's got this in the bag. The Curious Case... will continue its trend of being nominated for tons of big things but winning none of those big things.
Alternate: Milk
I've seen/Should win, with my limited viewings in mind: Milk, The Curious Case... (yes, I watched it online a little while ago, and OMG SOOOO BORING and just... not right at all, tonally), and The Reader / Milk
Snubbed: Wall-E

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
See above.
Alternate: David Fincher
I've seen/Should win: Daldry, Fincher, Van Sant / Van Sant
Snubbed: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
It's close with him and Sean Penn. But I think, in the end, the "underdog" story will truly appeal to the voters, those saps. ;) It will be CLOSE, though.
Alternate: Sean Penn
I've seen/Should win: Penn and Pitt / PENN.
Snubbed: Robert Downey Jr., Iron Man. Not kidding.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader
KING OF KINGS! AND LORD OF LORDS!!!!
Alternate: Meryl Streep
I've seen/Should win: Hathaway, Leo, Streep, Winslet. Whoo, almost done! / Winslet
Snubbed: Rebecca Hall or Scarlett Johansson, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I finally saw all of Happy-Go-Lucky, and Sally Hawkins does not deserve to be in this category, sorry.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
The only real, true lock.
Alternate: Don't need one, but PSH
I've seen/Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Ledger
Snubbed: Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married and Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Meh? Good, nomination-worthy, but not OMG GIVE HER AN OSCAR RTM-worthy at all. At least, if they give her an Oscar now, they can get it out of the way. And ha ha, she's not going to get her boyfriend to present it to her. I hope the inane little thing cries about it and not in a good way. Wow, I'm so mean! I can still see any of the nominees here upsetting; Pene's not a huge frontrunner.
Alternate: Viola Davis, Doubt
I've seen/Should win: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson / Davis
Snubbed: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (though I have her in lead)

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
The film will more than likely pick up its only major award here.
Alternate: Wall-E
I've seen / Should win: ALL OF THEM YAAAAAY / Wall-E
Snubbed: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
Get used to "Jai Ho," people. You're going to hear it A LOT on Oscar night when those guys go up to get their 500000 trophies.
Alternate: The Reader
I've seen / Should win: The Curious Case..., Doubt, The Reader / out of those, um, The Reader I guess
Snubbed: Revolutionary Road

Those were my long predictions for the major categories... I'll have a full list up in a few days.

I giggled.

These CRAAAAZY Oscar nominations.

At least every category has a "WUT????" moment.

Also, hey, Academy. I know you complain about how nobody watches you. Well, hey, geniuses, you've got no one to blame but yourselves this year; you had the opportunity to nominate the biggest-grossing picture of the year, which also had the precursors and reviews to back it up but was OMG A SUPERHERO MOVIE, but instead you nominated a film that made $3 million. Good job, that. I am hardly the biggest Dark Knight fan, but AMPAS screwed itself over when it comes to viewership this year; everyone's going to turn their TVs off after Best Supporting Actor. Plus now I'm mad cuz I only saw ONE Best Picture nominee, and that's likely how it will be until Oscar night. BLAAAAAH. Anyway.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Raise your hand if you thought The Reader had a snowball's chance in hell. Hey, Harvey, put your hand down in the back there, you don't count. I know I had it on my "potentials" list but if I had to rank them, it would have been #10 (1. Slumdog, 2. Button, 3. Frost/Nixon, 4. Dark Knight, 5. Milk, 6. Doubt, 7. Gran Torino, 8. Revolutionary Road, 9. Wall-E, 10. The Reader, or something like that). Damn. Though a few people have smartly pointed out that Minghella AND Pollack sympathy may have catapaulted The Reader higher. Looking at the comments about the nominations on the Carpetbagger over at the NYTimes, OMG, EVERYONE hated Benjamin Button with a passion. I think it's very very very love/hate and it won't be able to carve out a win. But hey, who knows.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Dark horse: Milk, I think Hollywood's pissed at Prop 8 for understandable reasons.
I predicted: Curious Case..., The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire 4/5

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Reaction: A round of applause for Daldry, who's gotten three Best Directing nominations from the three movies he's done. Damn. I like how his reaction to the nomination was something along the lines of "THANK YOU KATE WINSLET!!!!!!!!!!"
Will win: Danny Boyle.
Dark horse: David Fincher. I might be predicting him if apparently he wasn't a major asshole that everyone hated.
I predicted: Aronofsky, Boyle, Fincher, Howard, Nolan. 3/5

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Reaction: Not surprised Jenkins got in, but SHOCKED they left Eastwood out in the cold so harshly (Gran Torino got nothing, and Changeling very little). I'd say Penn's odds for winning racheted up with how much the Academy liked his film, but to be honest I don't know if they're going to be happy giving him a second Oscar when he clearly seems extraordinarily cavalier about the whole thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do that, but the Academy definitely won't appreciate it.
Will win: At this point I'll just say Mickey Rourke.
Dark horse: Penn.
I predicted: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke. 4/5

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Reaction: It's kind of awesome that the Academy, for once, said "FUCK YOU CATEGORY FRAUD!!!" and nominated someone where they were supposed to be in terms of category placement, at least according to what I've heard because I haven't seen the movie. If only they hadn't had a flagrant case of that every year since at least 2004 (Jamie Foxx in Collateral, Jake Gyllenhaal, Jennifer Hudson/Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Casey Affleck)... Anyway, I kind of feel more comfortable with saying Kate will win for The Reader in lead than saying Kate would have won for Revolutionary Road if she was also nominated in supporting for The Reader. Does that make sense? At any rate, GO KATE!!!! And yes, Melissa Leo climbed out of obscurity to snatch a nomination from Cate Blanchett in a movie that got 13 nominations. Girlfriend can be proud of that. Oh, and ladies and gentlemen... Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway! Puketastic. Hey, I think I'll go see that great opus of American film starring two incredibly talented young Oscar-nominated stars, Bride Wars. Again, puketastic.
Will win: ........it feels so weird to predict Kate Winslet.
Dark horse: Meryl's gonna win three someday, right? But hopefully not this one.
I predicted: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Winslet (Revolutionary Road). That's 3.5, right? :P

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Reaction: I wasn't expecting Revolutionary Road's only major Oscar nomination to be in Supporting Actor, hah, though I'm told his role was the kind of role the Academy usually loves. I'm not THAT shocked Patel was snubbed; I mean, clearly the Globes loved Slumdog too and he couldn't get in there either. Despite the general nose-in-the-air, middle-finger-brandished from AMPAS to The Dark Knight, I still think Heath's the closest thing to a lock we have this year.
Will win: Heath Ledger.
Dark horse: Don't think I need one, but Robert Downey Jr.
I predicted: Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel. 4/5

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Reaction: Nobody was probably happier this morning to see Kate Winslet be moved to leading than these five ladies. It throws the race wide open. HI JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will win: Viola Davis. It just seems like the kind of performance the Academy will love, from what I've heard. Plus the film got multiple nominations, and this win seems the most likely.
Dark horse: Penelope Cruz. And it was a tough call, but if they couldn't nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a freaking Woody Allen movie, for Original Screenplay, maybe they didn't like her movie very much.
I predicted: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet. 4/5

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E

Reaction: It's surprising Happy-Go-Lucky's script got in, but not Hawkins. Oh well. I've seen bits and pieces of her performance, and I gotta say that though I'm reserving full judgement until I see the movie, yes it was an extremely vibrant performance, but also an INCREDIBLY ANNOYING one. I'm sad that Vicky Cristina Barcelona didn't get in - it was a terrific movie and script, and WOODY ALLEN! - but thrilled for In Bruges and Wall-E. Milk's script was good, but nothing special. Like the movie. It was very good and well-made, but nothing about it particularly pushed it into the stratosphere. I gotta say that Frozen River looks sooooo fucking boring. I'm sure it's good. But I have NOOOO DESIRE to see it!
Will win: Wall-E? Please? This is more than likely wishful thinking.
Dark horse: Milk
I predicted: In Bruges, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler. 3/5

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Uh... sure? This seems like the only category without serious WTFery going on.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Dark horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I predicted: Curious Case..., Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. 4/5

So what have we learned, kiddies? The Oscars go crazy sometimes, and even snub Clint Eastwood and Cate Blanchett! I guess "Never underestimate Harvey" is the new "Never underestimate Clint Eastwood", which was probably the new "Never underestimate Harvey" to begin with, so, you know, cyclical! Oh, and never use me to bet on your Oscar pool.

Analysis part... 4? Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Milk
Pros: Great year this one and last. In a hyped movie. Some important precursors. Closeted gay omgz.
Cons: Not enough precursors. Missed out at the Globes, which generally seemed to hate Milk in general. Vote splitting between him and Franco, the other Milk supporting actor?
Do I think he's in? Yes. He was great too. :)

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Pros: Great reviews and his buzz never died, accompanied by many precursors. He had a triumphant comeback year. Many noms including Globe and SAG.
Cons: His film still just a stupid comedy, not Oscar's forte at all and almost certain to get no other nominations. Many precursor noms, no precursor wins.
Do I think he's in? Yes, and I'm thrilled to see him have such a triumphant year, but I wish it was for Iron Man.

James Franco, Milk
Pros: Moving performance. He's been viewed as an up-and-comer for many years now. Playing gay. A few precursors.
Cons: Memories of "so good" have to decrease his credibility. Not enough precursors. Josh Brolin has most of the hype for this movie.
Do I think he's in? No, but it wouldn't shock me.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Pros: PSH is a new AMPAS favorite. Movie's getting a lot of attention. Meaty role. Many noms including Globes and SAG.
Cons: Based on the play (I haven't seen the movie so I dunno if they modified his character) he's a lead and this is category fraud. Not many wins because Heath Ledger has a lot of them.
Do I think he's in? Yes.

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Pros: ummm... where to begin. Death sympathy. A starring role in the biggest film of the year. He shapes that film and makes it as good as it is. Goodwill from Brokeback Mountain a few years ago. Incredible, blinding, deafening hype that he actually lived up to with outstanding reviews. He's basically won every single precursor award. And basically, it's just one fuuuucking heeeell of a performance that virtually everyone has seen.
Cons: He's in a superhero movie. The few naysayers who are like "OMG U ONLY LYKE HIM CUZ HEZ DED!!!! DIS MOOVIE IS OVERRATED N NOT GUD!!!!!!!"
Do I think he's in? A doy duh. The biggest, and at this point only, lock for a win.

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Big role, supposedly actually lead (I haven't seen the film). His film is beloved. Apparently his character is extremely lovable. SAG nomination and a few others along the way. They love precocious young actors.
Cons: Missed the Globe nod and they loved his film too. Doesn't have tons of precursors. Might be characterized as a lead.
Do I think he's in? Considering the orgy of love for Slumdog Millionaire and how he seems to have gained much hype out of nowhere, yes.

Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Pros: Brad Pitt. In a Coen brothers film. Terrific and memorable.
Cons: No precusors save the BAFTA. Robert Downey Jr. already has the "supporting role in a stupid comedy" nomination (yes yes, Burn After Reading and Tropic Thunder are very different). Nobody's paying attention to his film.
Do I think he's in? No, but I sure as hell would love it.

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Sure to get attention with the fact that he's in the OMG LEO AND KATE!!!! movie. Apparently he's one hell of a scene stealer and his performance is excellent.
Cons: No real precursors and his film seems to be losing hype.
Do I think he's in? No.

Thank you, Saturday Night Live.

I can't find the skit online (is it possible they just didn't upload it?) but seriously, thank you for that "actors with two first names" skit that you had last Saturday when NPH hosted, so that I finally learned it's Philip Seymour Hoffman, as opposed to Philip Seymour Hoffman. I probably should have realized that when he was continually listed above Heath Ledger's name this year and back in the year of Brokeback Mountain and Capote (hence proving that PSH is before Ledger alphabetically, and his last name couldn't start with S because S comes after L), but, well, you know.

so I'm watching the Critics' Choice Awards.

Okay, so everyone knows how the award shows go where they announce a category nominee by nominee, and there's mild clapping for everyone. They get to Best Supporting Actor and:

1. (nominee)
(mild applause)

2. (nominee)
(mild applause)

3. (nominee)
(mild applause)

4. (nominee)
(mild applause)

5. (nominee)
(mild applause)

6. Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
(THUNDEROUS APPLAUSE THAT BLOWS THE FUCKIN' ROOF OFF THE PLACE!!!!!!!!!!)

18 Oscar Contenders to Watch.

From EW. I'm just writing this down now, I'll be back to comment on it later.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon

David Fincher, Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...

Ha ha!

New York Magazine's terrible The Dark Knight review causes outrage.

I'm not one of those people that's like OH MY GOD THE DARK KNIGHT IS THE GREATEST MOVIE EVER EVEN THOUGH I HAVEN'T SEEN IT. But the movie reviewer of New York Magazine really is quite terrible; he loves too many movies that are frankly bad and hates those that are awesome. In addition, a lot of his review seems to be "THIS IS VIOLENT WAAAAHHHH" which, let's face it, is total bullshit. I mean, provided the violence is justified - and it, so far, always has been in Nolan's great movies - this isn't much of an argument. The reviewer, quite frankly, also seems to be simply trying to stir up trouble and controversy in his assessment of Heath Ledger's performance. In conclusion, you're a douche, NY Mag writer, and you always have been, but I'm glad others are with me now... even if it took a fairly massively overhyped movie to do it.

Happy birthday, Heath Ledger.

You left us far too soon.

You are beautiful, Michelle Williams.

“Please respect our need to grieve privately. My heart is broken. I am the mother of the most tender-hearted, high-spirited, beautiful little girl who is the spitting image of her father. All that I can cling to is his presence inside her that reveals itself every day. His family and I watch Matilda as she whispers to trees, hugs animals, and takes steps two at a time and we know that he is with us still. She will be brought up with the best memories of him.”

Done now, I suppose.

There's only so much time you can spend mourning someone you didn't know, no matter how how much you liked them or how sad their sudden, all-too-soon death is. I'm sure the return of poor Michelle and Matilda to New York will be a ridiculous media frenzy, and I'll try my best to stay out of it.

In conclusion, and I hope this is the last time I have to say it: Rest in peace, Heath Ledger.

And it breaks my heart. It breaks my heart.

i really am gonna miss you, lovely.

a beautiful tribute.

An Actor Whose Work Will Outlast the Frenzy from the New York Times.

So incredibly sad.

I absolutely loved Heath Ledger, honestly. I loved him in 10 Things I Hate About You (even if it was way beneath him...okay, that movie is a huge guilty pleasure), I loved him in Monster's Ball (he's the best performance in the movie!), I loved having this picture on my desktop for a good portion of freshman year (what can I say, he's a good-looking guy), and I loved, loved, loved him for Brokeback Mountain. Little else worked in that movie, but Ennis del Mar - you broke my heart. Today, you broke my heart again. 28 years old...

RIP, Heath.

I bet this was everyone's first thought seeing this picture

Ennis del Mar, totally fucked up by his relationship with Jack Twist, went irrefutably crazy and turned into a homicidal and demented man, prone to wearing bizarre makeup. One day on the street, he saw Jack's estranged sister who, in his dementia, he mistook for Jack. Life started to turn bad for the lovely young lass (okay, I don't know how she was young when Ennis was old. Whatever.) when Ennis, convinced she was Jack reincarnated, started to stalk her...

Stay tuned this fall for Brokeback Mountain 2: Fatal Attraction 2: Dead Ringers 2...

(omigod The Dark Knight CANNOT COME SOON ENOUGH)

Antici...

...pation

I still say/hope this movie is an action movie masterpiece.