Josh Brolin, Milk
Pros: Great year this one and last. In a hyped movie. Some important precursors. Closeted gay omgz.
Cons: Not enough precursors. Missed out at the Globes, which generally seemed to hate Milk in general. Vote splitting between him and Franco, the other Milk supporting actor?
Do I think he's in? Yes. He was great too. :)
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Pros: Great reviews and his buzz never died, accompanied by many precursors. He had a triumphant comeback year. Many noms including Globe and SAG.
Cons: His film still just a stupid comedy, not Oscar's forte at all and almost certain to get no other nominations. Many precursor noms, no precursor wins.
Do I think he's in? Yes, and I'm thrilled to see him have such a triumphant year, but I wish it was for Iron Man.
James Franco, Milk
Pros: Moving performance. He's been viewed as an up-and-comer for many years now. Playing gay. A few precursors.
Cons: Memories of "so good" have to decrease his credibility. Not enough precursors. Josh Brolin has most of the hype for this movie.
Do I think he's in? No, but it wouldn't shock me.
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Pros: PSH is a new AMPAS favorite. Movie's getting a lot of attention. Meaty role. Many noms including Globes and SAG.
Cons: Based on the play (I haven't seen the movie so I dunno if they modified his character) he's a lead and this is category fraud. Not many wins because Heath Ledger has a lot of them.
Do I think he's in? Yes.
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Pros: ummm... where to begin. Death sympathy. A starring role in the biggest film of the year. He shapes that film and makes it as good as it is. Goodwill from Brokeback Mountain a few years ago. Incredible, blinding, deafening hype that he actually lived up to with outstanding reviews. He's basically won every single precursor award. And basically, it's just one fuuuucking heeeell of a performance that virtually everyone has seen.
Cons: He's in a superhero movie. The few naysayers who are like "OMG U ONLY LYKE HIM CUZ HEZ DED!!!! DIS MOOVIE IS OVERRATED N NOT GUD!!!!!!!"
Do I think he's in? A doy duh. The biggest, and at this point only, lock for a win.
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Big role, supposedly actually lead (I haven't seen the film). His film is beloved. Apparently his character is extremely lovable. SAG nomination and a few others along the way. They love precocious young actors.
Cons: Missed the Globe nod and they loved his film too. Doesn't have tons of precursors. Might be characterized as a lead.
Do I think he's in? Considering the orgy of love for Slumdog Millionaire and how he seems to have gained much hype out of nowhere, yes.
Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Pros: Brad Pitt. In a Coen brothers film. Terrific and memorable.
Cons: No precusors save the BAFTA. Robert Downey Jr. already has the "supporting role in a stupid comedy" nomination (yes yes, Burn After Reading and Tropic Thunder are very different). Nobody's paying attention to his film.
Do I think he's in? No, but I sure as hell would love it.
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Sure to get attention with the fact that he's in the OMG LEO AND KATE!!!! movie. Apparently he's one hell of a scene stealer and his performance is excellent.
Cons: No real precursors and his film seems to be losing hype.
Do I think he's in? No.
