Sunday, February 28, 2010
I am inviting bad karma by posting this but lol.
Jason Varitek after the ASB: .157/.250/.239/.489, 1 HR o_O (against Sergio Mitre in that game the Yankees won 20-11)
BUT I THOUGHT THEY HATED EACH OTHER ACCORDING TO GAMMONS
Yankees sluggers even closer than 3 and 4
(Ughhh I saw that headline on the side that's Posada: "They are going to have to rip uniform off me" and I know it's in reference to him retiring but my first thought was, I might do that if he asked! I AM A PERVERT.)
(Ughhh I saw that headline on the side that's Posada: "They are going to have to rip uniform off me" and I know it's in reference to him retiring but my first thought was, I might do that if he asked! I AM A PERVERT.)
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Jimmy Rollins has an MVP
He wasn't an embarrassingly bad choice like Bartolo Colon in 2005 (Johan says hi) or Justin Morneau in 2006 (isn't it funny that for all the "Derek Jeter is soooo overrated" stuff, he's never won an MVP, deserved or not? I'd trade all those undeserved Gold Gloves for that one MVP in 1999 or 2006.), but... yikes.
I am under the impression that David Wright lost out on that NL MVP - he had a .963 OPS for a ridiculous 149 OPS+, led the NL in WAR with a really impressive 8.4, and placed second in NL VORP behind Hanley Ramirez - because the year was 2007 and the Mets choked horribly. That wasn't, however, due to him. Here are his stats in August:
.394/.516 (!!!!)/.657/1.172
And September:
.352/.432/.602/1.034
Oh, and save April, he never OPSed below .900 in a month.
He also had 12 HRs and 41 RBI (RBI is a stupid stat, but you know) during those two months. On the other hand, let's check the Mets' team ERA over the season:
April 2.96
May 3.69
June 4.20
July 4.50
August 4.93
September 5.11
A lot of this is due to the fact that their relievers (and a good number of their starters) were a. not that good to begin with, so it's likely they were getting lucky early on and a regression to the mean was due; b. incredibly overused, so they were very tired by the end of the season.
The following are all from 2007, NL-only.
Fangraphs WAR:
David Wright 8.4
Chase Utley 8.0
Matt Holliday 8.0
Chipper Jones 7.1
Jimmy Rollins 6.7
(if you think pitchers should get MVP votes, and I don't, Brandon Webb had a 6.9)
BP WARP:
Albert Pujols 9.5
David Wright 8.7
Troy Tulowitzki 7.8
Chase Utley 7.6
Hanley Ramirez 7.2
Chipper Jones 7.1
Matt Holliday 7.1
Jimmy Rollins 6.5
(again, if you're counting pitchers, Jake Peavy had an 8.5 and Roy Oswalt a 6.6. Brandon Webb was tied with Jimmy with 6.5.)
BP VORP:
Hanley Ramirez 87.1
David Wright 81.6
Chipper Jones 77.0
Matt Holliday 76.4
Albert Pujols 73.9
Prince Fielder 70.3
Chase Utley 69.8
Miguel Cabrera 69.1
Jimmy Rollins 67.3
And yes, this is a system that gives more weight to shortstops, catchers, etc., having great offensive years.
(pitchers: Peavy 75.9)
So yeah. Jimmy Rollins didn't deserve that MVP so much. David, Matt Holliday, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, Pujols, and heck, even Rollins' own teammate that year, Chase Utley, deserved it more. Don't get me wrong, he had a great year and it's not like he was a horrible choice, but I think voters were very seduced by the Phillies' division comeback and Rollins' 30-30 year.
I am under the impression that David Wright lost out on that NL MVP - he had a .963 OPS for a ridiculous 149 OPS+, led the NL in WAR with a really impressive 8.4, and placed second in NL VORP behind Hanley Ramirez - because the year was 2007 and the Mets choked horribly. That wasn't, however, due to him. Here are his stats in August:
.394/.516 (!!!!)/.657/1.172
And September:
.352/.432/.602/1.034
Oh, and save April, he never OPSed below .900 in a month.
He also had 12 HRs and 41 RBI (RBI is a stupid stat, but you know) during those two months. On the other hand, let's check the Mets' team ERA over the season:
April 2.96
May 3.69
June 4.20
July 4.50
August 4.93
September 5.11
A lot of this is due to the fact that their relievers (and a good number of their starters) were a. not that good to begin with, so it's likely they were getting lucky early on and a regression to the mean was due; b. incredibly overused, so they were very tired by the end of the season.
The following are all from 2007, NL-only.
Fangraphs WAR:
David Wright 8.4
Chase Utley 8.0
Matt Holliday 8.0
Chipper Jones 7.1
Jimmy Rollins 6.7
(if you think pitchers should get MVP votes, and I don't, Brandon Webb had a 6.9)
BP WARP:
Albert Pujols 9.5
David Wright 8.7
Troy Tulowitzki 7.8
Chase Utley 7.6
Hanley Ramirez 7.2
Chipper Jones 7.1
Matt Holliday 7.1
Jimmy Rollins 6.5
(again, if you're counting pitchers, Jake Peavy had an 8.5 and Roy Oswalt a 6.6. Brandon Webb was tied with Jimmy with 6.5.)
BP VORP:
Hanley Ramirez 87.1
David Wright 81.6
Chipper Jones 77.0
Matt Holliday 76.4
Albert Pujols 73.9
Prince Fielder 70.3
Chase Utley 69.8
Miguel Cabrera 69.1
Jimmy Rollins 67.3
And yes, this is a system that gives more weight to shortstops, catchers, etc., having great offensive years.
(pitchers: Peavy 75.9)
So yeah. Jimmy Rollins didn't deserve that MVP so much. David, Matt Holliday, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, Pujols, and heck, even Rollins' own teammate that year, Chase Utley, deserved it more. Don't get me wrong, he had a great year and it's not like he was a horrible choice, but I think voters were very seduced by the Phillies' division comeback and Rollins' 30-30 year.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
today, in "inappropriate lusting after Andy Pettitte"
I was watching some Yankees Classic for just a minute or two earlier, and Andy was pitching, and they were talking about how he was trying to "bust and pound [the hitter] inside."
You do not even want to know what my reaction to this wasexcept that Andy Pettitte can pound me inside aaaaanytime he wants.
You do not even want to know what my reaction to this was
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
my only note about the whole Chan Ho Park thing
Can the Yankees change their facial hair rules for him? Because he had a pretty badass beard.
(Also, the Yankees clearly signed him so that he wouldn't have to fear CC or Andy's bats. True story, that's Andy's only career home run. Chan Ho Park is a pretty good reliever, he just can't start any more, at all.)
(Also, the Yankees clearly signed him so that he wouldn't have to fear CC or Andy's bats. True story, that's Andy's only career home run. Chan Ho Park is a pretty good reliever, he just can't start any more, at all.)
Monday, February 22, 2010
My response to this picture:
Crank it.
(Dammit. The picture appears to have died. :( It was a picture of Jorge and AJ shaking hands.)
just a note
The number of Red Sox fans that keep bringing up 2004 is astonishing and frankly laughable. I heard someone say that the 2009 World Series didn't count because the Yankees didn't have to go through the Red Sox. OMG! You once won a postseason series against the Yankees!! That means you're so much better than they are and will be for the rest of time!!!!!
Above all, this is pretty much what I found, judging by the comments on the internets.
Red Sox fan bragging about a sweep of the Yankees and first place in the division in April: totally okay.
Yankee fan bragging about a sweep of the Red Sox and first place of the division in August: YOU'RE COUNTING YOUR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCH MORON!!!! REMEMBER 2004!!!!
Above all, this is pretty much what I found, judging by the comments on the internets.
Red Sox fan bragging about a sweep of the Yankees and first place in the division in April: totally okay.
Yankee fan bragging about a sweep of the Red Sox and first place of the division in August: YOU'RE COUNTING YOUR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCH MORON!!!! REMEMBER 2004!!!!
#4
Verrrry bored. (again, a few things are edited out.)
Joe Morgan
(11:03 AM)
I think this is going to be the best World Series we've seen in a long time.
Fans of teams that were in the World Series the past couple of years: HEY. EAST COAST BIAS!!!!
Also, the 2001 World Series was one of the best of all time. The 2002 World Series was awesome. The 2005 World Series was about as great as a four-game sweep could be. "A long time," not really.
We have two excellent teams, the two best teams in baseball. They are similar from an offensive standpoint. They can score a lot of runs. I think the Yankees starting pitching is a little stronger, not much, but a little. That may be the difference. We all know that the Yankees' closer is better,
Brad Lidge: ;_;
but everything else is pretty similar.
Steve (Middletown, CT)
Hey Joe, what do you think has changed to make A-Rod a postseason force? Do you think it was just random fluctuation over a small sample size that made previous playoff performances an aberration or has something suddenly clicked for him?
This is clearly Joebait.
Joe Morgan
(11:05 AM)
Part of it is the small sample size before. Remember when he played with Seattle, he did well in the playoffs. When he got to New York, he's only been in the playoffs a few times. Now, he's more relaxed and he's not trying as hard. Before, he was forcing it and trying to make things happen.
Ehhhhh... half a point for this one.
Nick (Washington UK)
Imagining that the Yankees are 1 run behind going into their half of the 9th inning and that Brad Lidge pitches every time. What is the series outcome?
If I may quote John Sterling, THUUHHHHHH YANKEEEEES WINNN!!! Also, let's say Brad Lidge blew two saves in a row. I really don't think Charlie Manuel, even though he is loyal to a fault, would send him out the third time with a one-run lead. Sure, they didn't really have anyone else, but it's obvious Lidge couldn't do it.
Joe Morgan
(11:07 AM)
When Lidge throws strikes and gets ahead of hitters and forces them to chase his pitches out of the strike zone, he'll be effective against anyone. His problem this season was not getting ahead of hitters. If he throws strikes early in the count, he'll be successful. The reason Rivera is successful is he works ahead of the hitters and throws strikes. If Lidge can not close games, then Philadelphia is in trouble, they don't have anyone else.
Yeah, he didn't really answer the question. At all.
Casey (Santa Clarita, CA)
Joe, What is the difference between the Pedro today and the Pedro of yesterday and would you give him the edge against Petite?
I understand not being able to get "Pettitte" right all the time, especially if you're not necessarily a Yankee fan. Hell, I love the guy, but you'll probably see me spell it "Pettite" or "Petitte" a few times on this blog. I actually have to think about how to spell it right. But Petite? That just makes me cry.
Joe Morgan
(11:09 AM)
Obviously, the velocity is the difference. The Pedro who was winning Cy Youngs was throwing 95+ and had the changeups to go with it. Now his velocity is down and he throws his curveball more. Pedro can be effective. If he can throw his curveball for strikes, he can do well. The Yankees are a fastball hitting team. If you can throw curveballs, you can keep them off balance.
I can't comment on the difference between Pedro 2000 and Pedro 2009 but I'm sure the really sabermetrically-inclined can, and I'm sure this is very very wrong.
Zack (Toledo)
what does it mean for NYC that the Yankees are back in the world series?
This is a dumb question.
Joe Morgan
(11:11 AM)
New York revels in the success of the Yankees, far more so than they do the Mets.
Well, no. There are still tons of Mets fans out there. They really haven't had much to celebrate since 2006, though. I can't even imagine being a Met fan... the things that team has put you through since Game 6 of the 2006 NLCS must just about kill you.
It just kinds of punctuates what New York thinks anyway, that they're the center of the world.
Uh, thanks, Joe.
And the Yankees' success proves that. New York is alive. They're having a big pep rally in the middle of Times Square.
I saw the pep rally. It was sort of pathetic. :(
Casey (Santa Clarita, CA)
Joe, If the Phillies have some hits from their the bottom of their lineup I think they could win this thing because the middle of their lineup is better than the Yankees. Your thoughts?
Yankees lineup OPS (I'm assuming Jeter-Damon-Tex-ARod-Matsui-Posada-Cano-Swisher-Melky): .871, .854, .948, .933, .876, .885, .871, .869, .752 (hello outlier)
Phillies lineup OPS (I'm assuming Rollins-Victorino-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez-Francisco-Feliz-Ruiz, because that's what they used in Game 1 of the WS): .719 (holy crap!), .803, .905, .931, .879, .899, .843 (in 37 games), .694, .780
I know I make a big deal about how the middle of the Philly lineup was the scariest thing in baseball or whatever, but hmm, looking at it, it's pretty even. That might just be my general kneejerk reaction; as a Yankee fan trying to be pretty fair, I generally don't want to overrate the Yankees in any way. They really were good this year though, heh. Also, generally, if teams are getting hits from the bottom of their lineups, which are generally the crappier hitters, it's a very good sign.
Joe Morgan
(11:16 AM)
The Phillies can definitely win the World Series. There's no doubt about that. But, as you're saying, you need some players to perform that you're not counting on. For the Phillies, I think that guy is Carlos Ruiz. He's played well in the playoffs. He's a guy that could be a difference maker for the Phillies. The Yankees really need Nick Swisher to perform better. He really hasn't done well this postseason. Both of those guys are toward the bottom of the lineup and I think they could impact this series.
Is Carlos Ruiz the new Orlando Cabrera in that we're going to hear how clutch he is during the postseason? Oh noooo.
I removed some question where Joe just talked about himself, FYI.
A. Lee (New York)
Joe - If Cliff Lee struggles, do you think this has a chance for a yankees sweep.
Yeah, if the Phillies' best pitcher by far doesn't do well, do you think the Yankees have a chance for a sweep? Noooooooooo.
Joe Morgan
(11:20 AM)
I don't think the Yankees will sweep the Phillies, but it becomes a chance for them to sweep the Phillies. The Phillies will win a game because of their bats in one of these first four games.
The Yankees also have pretty impressive bats, you know. (insert dick joke here.)
It won't be a pitchers' duel, it will be a runscoring duel.
Well he was right about that.
Aaron (New Jersey)
Joe: Do you think the phillies would be in this spot if they had halladay instead of lee?
Joe Morgan
(11:23 AM)
That's a tough question to answer. They wouldn't be better. They could have not picked a better guy for their team, personalitywise. They made a perfect trade for them. Halladay could have come in and helped them, but he couldn't have come in and pitched as well as Lee did.
Really? He COULDN'T have? Since the trade deadline:
Lee 79.2 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.4 K/BB
Halladay 91 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.26 K/BB
Both Lee and Halladay were really awesome. But teams that Cliff Lee pitched against over that time frame: Giants, Rockies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets, Braves, Astros, Nationals, Nationals again, Braves again, Brewers, Astros again. Ehhhh. Halladay did it against: Mariners, Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Rays again, Red Sox again, Yankees again, Twins, Yankees again, Rays again, Mariners again, Red Sox again. Other than the Mariners and maybe the Orioles, those are some pretty good offensive teams.
I know everyone's on Lee's jock right now because he won the Cy Young in 2008 then went on an unsustainably awesome run in the 2009 postseason, but Roy Halladay is a better pitcher than Cliff Lee. That's not to say Cliff Lee is bad. He's great. I'd be thrilled if he was on the Yankees for the 2010 season. But Roy Halladay is maybe the best pitcher in baseball and I'm tired of people acting like Cliff Lee is better than he is. Phillies fans in particular are irrational about him, check the sponsorship on his BB-Ref page: "Philly's undisputed leader in sports satire wants to thank Clifton Phifer Lee for what he did for the city and just hope he didn't get traded because Amaro preferred Halladay over a damn fine pitcher." What he did for the city?! It's not like he was CC in Milwaukee, guys, and single-handedly got you into the playoffs or World Series.
And Lee didn't cost them as much as Halladay would have. It was a very good trade for Philadelphia.
Bob (New York)
I am a big Mets fan - what do I do :(
Drink
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
Well, just pull for great baseball games. Pull to see the best players to play at their highest level. Pull for the rain and weather to stay away. You're like me, just pull for great baseball. Pull for individual players and for the games to be good.
But Mets fans pretty much hate every player on each team, from Ryan Howard to Derek Jeter to Shane Victorino to Mariano Rivera, not to mention the ones that seem more easily unlikeable, like Rollins, Hamels, and A-Rod. I can't even tell you some of the "World Series wishlist" things I saw on Mets sites. They were pretty repulsive.
Paul (Harrisburg, Pa)
The Yankees seem to be able to move the runners very well. On the other hand, the Phillies have had almost all homeruns. Is this an advantage to either team?
There was a point in the postseason where the Yankees were like 0-15 with RISP and I'm pretty sure the Phillies didn't score all their runs by home run, or even almost all their runs by home run. Though the last game of the NLCS was less like a playoff game and more like the HR derby.
Joe Morgan
(11:26 AM)
I think both of them rely on the home run. If you look back on the Yankees, most of their runs were scored on home runs.
Somebody please look this up and tell me it's not true so I can laugh at him.
But they're both capable of moving the runners along.
CAPABLE? Well I'm glad you feel that way.
I thikn they're pretty evenly matched.
"thikn" just makes me laugh
I think the Phillies have a little better base stealing.
Do I think Joe is looking at SB%, which is far more important, or just looking at the raw number of stolen bases? Three guesses as to what I think!!!
I think the Phillies have a little more team speed. But other than that, I think they're pretty evenly matched.
Colin (Philadelphia)
If the Phillies beat the Yankees, are you okay with them being called the Little Red Machine?
UH OH!!!!
Joe Morgan
(11:28 AM)
I think if the Phillies win two in a row, it will show that they are an excellent baseball team. It doesn't have any effect on my team or what my team did. I think the Phillies are a fun team to watch, as was my team. They play hard and they're nicknamed the Fightin' Phils and that's meant as a complement because they never quit.
WTF?! This is so not a good answer, Joe.
Dan (CT)
Who do you pick to win the World Series?
Joe Morgan
(11:30 AM)
I think today's matchup will go a long way to determining who will win. If CC is as dominant the was he was his last two starts, I think the Yankees will have an edge.
Did you see Lee in his last start? Guy was ridiculous. Granted, he was probably pitching against a worse offensive team than CC was, but it's not like Lee wasn't dominant in the postseason up to this point.
But can the guy continue to pitch that well for 3 starts? If somehow Lee is able to win the game today, that gives the Phillies a lot more confidence and takes some away from the Yankees. It's too close to call before it starts. We have to see how this game goes and then we can see who has the edge.
Yes, whoever wins the first game will have a 1-0 edge in the series. That is amazing. No one has ever thought of that before.
The Yankees have the homefield edge and they haven't lost a playoff game in the new stadium.
Joe Morgan
(11:31 AM)
Looking forward to a great World Series. I just hope the weather allows the players to play at their highest level.
Sigh.
I'm gonna stop doing these because I feel like I'm not being terribly funny with them any more. Fire Joe Morgan : Justine Credible :: Mariano Rivera : every other relief pitcher ever.
Joe Morgan
(11:03 AM)
I think this is going to be the best World Series we've seen in a long time.
Fans of teams that were in the World Series the past couple of years: HEY. EAST COAST BIAS!!!!
Also, the 2001 World Series was one of the best of all time. The 2002 World Series was awesome. The 2005 World Series was about as great as a four-game sweep could be. "A long time," not really.
We have two excellent teams, the two best teams in baseball. They are similar from an offensive standpoint. They can score a lot of runs. I think the Yankees starting pitching is a little stronger, not much, but a little. That may be the difference. We all know that the Yankees' closer is better,
Brad Lidge: ;_;
but everything else is pretty similar.
Steve (Middletown, CT)
Hey Joe, what do you think has changed to make A-Rod a postseason force? Do you think it was just random fluctuation over a small sample size that made previous playoff performances an aberration or has something suddenly clicked for him?
This is clearly Joebait.
Joe Morgan
(11:05 AM)
Part of it is the small sample size before. Remember when he played with Seattle, he did well in the playoffs. When he got to New York, he's only been in the playoffs a few times. Now, he's more relaxed and he's not trying as hard. Before, he was forcing it and trying to make things happen.
Ehhhhh... half a point for this one.
Nick (Washington UK)
Imagining that the Yankees are 1 run behind going into their half of the 9th inning and that Brad Lidge pitches every time. What is the series outcome?
If I may quote John Sterling, THUUHHHHHH YANKEEEEES WINNN!!! Also, let's say Brad Lidge blew two saves in a row. I really don't think Charlie Manuel, even though he is loyal to a fault, would send him out the third time with a one-run lead. Sure, they didn't really have anyone else, but it's obvious Lidge couldn't do it.
Joe Morgan
(11:07 AM)
When Lidge throws strikes and gets ahead of hitters and forces them to chase his pitches out of the strike zone, he'll be effective against anyone. His problem this season was not getting ahead of hitters. If he throws strikes early in the count, he'll be successful. The reason Rivera is successful is he works ahead of the hitters and throws strikes. If Lidge can not close games, then Philadelphia is in trouble, they don't have anyone else.
Yeah, he didn't really answer the question. At all.
Casey (Santa Clarita, CA)
Joe, What is the difference between the Pedro today and the Pedro of yesterday and would you give him the edge against Petite?
I understand not being able to get "Pettitte" right all the time, especially if you're not necessarily a Yankee fan. Hell, I love the guy, but you'll probably see me spell it "Pettite" or "Petitte" a few times on this blog. I actually have to think about how to spell it right. But Petite? That just makes me cry.
Joe Morgan
(11:09 AM)
Obviously, the velocity is the difference. The Pedro who was winning Cy Youngs was throwing 95+ and had the changeups to go with it. Now his velocity is down and he throws his curveball more. Pedro can be effective. If he can throw his curveball for strikes, he can do well. The Yankees are a fastball hitting team. If you can throw curveballs, you can keep them off balance.
I can't comment on the difference between Pedro 2000 and Pedro 2009 but I'm sure the really sabermetrically-inclined can, and I'm sure this is very very wrong.
Zack (Toledo)
what does it mean for NYC that the Yankees are back in the world series?
This is a dumb question.
Joe Morgan
(11:11 AM)
New York revels in the success of the Yankees, far more so than they do the Mets.
Well, no. There are still tons of Mets fans out there. They really haven't had much to celebrate since 2006, though. I can't even imagine being a Met fan... the things that team has put you through since Game 6 of the 2006 NLCS must just about kill you.
It just kinds of punctuates what New York thinks anyway, that they're the center of the world.
Uh, thanks, Joe.
And the Yankees' success proves that. New York is alive. They're having a big pep rally in the middle of Times Square.
I saw the pep rally. It was sort of pathetic. :(
Casey (Santa Clarita, CA)
Joe, If the Phillies have some hits from their the bottom of their lineup I think they could win this thing because the middle of their lineup is better than the Yankees. Your thoughts?
Yankees lineup OPS (I'm assuming Jeter-Damon-Tex-ARod-Matsui-Posada-Cano-Swisher-Melky): .871, .854, .948, .933, .876, .885, .871, .869, .752 (hello outlier)
Phillies lineup OPS (I'm assuming Rollins-Victorino-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez-Francisco-Feliz-Ruiz, because that's what they used in Game 1 of the WS): .719 (holy crap!), .803, .905, .931, .879, .899, .843 (in 37 games), .694, .780
I know I make a big deal about how the middle of the Philly lineup was the scariest thing in baseball or whatever, but hmm, looking at it, it's pretty even. That might just be my general kneejerk reaction; as a Yankee fan trying to be pretty fair, I generally don't want to overrate the Yankees in any way. They really were good this year though, heh. Also, generally, if teams are getting hits from the bottom of their lineups, which are generally the crappier hitters, it's a very good sign.
Joe Morgan
(11:16 AM)
The Phillies can definitely win the World Series. There's no doubt about that. But, as you're saying, you need some players to perform that you're not counting on. For the Phillies, I think that guy is Carlos Ruiz. He's played well in the playoffs. He's a guy that could be a difference maker for the Phillies. The Yankees really need Nick Swisher to perform better. He really hasn't done well this postseason. Both of those guys are toward the bottom of the lineup and I think they could impact this series.
Is Carlos Ruiz the new Orlando Cabrera in that we're going to hear how clutch he is during the postseason? Oh noooo.
I removed some question where Joe just talked about himself, FYI.
A. Lee (New York)
Joe - If Cliff Lee struggles, do you think this has a chance for a yankees sweep.
Yeah, if the Phillies' best pitcher by far doesn't do well, do you think the Yankees have a chance for a sweep? Noooooooooo.
Joe Morgan
(11:20 AM)
I don't think the Yankees will sweep the Phillies, but it becomes a chance for them to sweep the Phillies. The Phillies will win a game because of their bats in one of these first four games.
The Yankees also have pretty impressive bats, you know. (insert dick joke here.)
It won't be a pitchers' duel, it will be a runscoring duel.
Well he was right about that.
Aaron (New Jersey)
Joe: Do you think the phillies would be in this spot if they had halladay instead of lee?
Joe Morgan
(11:23 AM)
That's a tough question to answer. They wouldn't be better. They could have not picked a better guy for their team, personalitywise. They made a perfect trade for them. Halladay could have come in and helped them, but he couldn't have come in and pitched as well as Lee did.
Really? He COULDN'T have? Since the trade deadline:
Lee 79.2 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.4 K/BB
Halladay 91 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.26 K/BB
Both Lee and Halladay were really awesome. But teams that Cliff Lee pitched against over that time frame: Giants, Rockies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets, Braves, Astros, Nationals, Nationals again, Braves again, Brewers, Astros again. Ehhhh. Halladay did it against: Mariners, Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Rays again, Red Sox again, Yankees again, Twins, Yankees again, Rays again, Mariners again, Red Sox again. Other than the Mariners and maybe the Orioles, those are some pretty good offensive teams.
I know everyone's on Lee's jock right now because he won the Cy Young in 2008 then went on an unsustainably awesome run in the 2009 postseason, but Roy Halladay is a better pitcher than Cliff Lee. That's not to say Cliff Lee is bad. He's great. I'd be thrilled if he was on the Yankees for the 2010 season. But Roy Halladay is maybe the best pitcher in baseball and I'm tired of people acting like Cliff Lee is better than he is. Phillies fans in particular are irrational about him, check the sponsorship on his BB-Ref page: "Philly's undisputed leader in sports satire wants to thank Clifton Phifer Lee for what he did for the city and just hope he didn't get traded because Amaro preferred Halladay over a damn fine pitcher." What he did for the city?! It's not like he was CC in Milwaukee, guys, and single-handedly got you into the playoffs or World Series.
And Lee didn't cost them as much as Halladay would have. It was a very good trade for Philadelphia.
Bob (New York)
I am a big Mets fan - what do I do :(
Drink
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
Well, just pull for great baseball games. Pull to see the best players to play at their highest level. Pull for the rain and weather to stay away. You're like me, just pull for great baseball. Pull for individual players and for the games to be good.
But Mets fans pretty much hate every player on each team, from Ryan Howard to Derek Jeter to Shane Victorino to Mariano Rivera, not to mention the ones that seem more easily unlikeable, like Rollins, Hamels, and A-Rod. I can't even tell you some of the "World Series wishlist" things I saw on Mets sites. They were pretty repulsive.
Paul (Harrisburg, Pa)
The Yankees seem to be able to move the runners very well. On the other hand, the Phillies have had almost all homeruns. Is this an advantage to either team?
There was a point in the postseason where the Yankees were like 0-15 with RISP and I'm pretty sure the Phillies didn't score all their runs by home run, or even almost all their runs by home run. Though the last game of the NLCS was less like a playoff game and more like the HR derby.
Joe Morgan
(11:26 AM)
I think both of them rely on the home run. If you look back on the Yankees, most of their runs were scored on home runs.
Somebody please look this up and tell me it's not true so I can laugh at him.
But they're both capable of moving the runners along.
CAPABLE? Well I'm glad you feel that way.
I thikn they're pretty evenly matched.
"thikn" just makes me laugh
I think the Phillies have a little better base stealing.
Do I think Joe is looking at SB%, which is far more important, or just looking at the raw number of stolen bases? Three guesses as to what I think!!!
I think the Phillies have a little more team speed. But other than that, I think they're pretty evenly matched.
Colin (Philadelphia)
If the Phillies beat the Yankees, are you okay with them being called the Little Red Machine?
UH OH!!!!
Joe Morgan
(11:28 AM)
I think if the Phillies win two in a row, it will show that they are an excellent baseball team. It doesn't have any effect on my team or what my team did. I think the Phillies are a fun team to watch, as was my team. They play hard and they're nicknamed the Fightin' Phils and that's meant as a complement because they never quit.
WTF?! This is so not a good answer, Joe.
Dan (CT)
Who do you pick to win the World Series?
Joe Morgan
(11:30 AM)
I think today's matchup will go a long way to determining who will win. If CC is as dominant the was he was his last two starts, I think the Yankees will have an edge.
Did you see Lee in his last start? Guy was ridiculous. Granted, he was probably pitching against a worse offensive team than CC was, but it's not like Lee wasn't dominant in the postseason up to this point.
But can the guy continue to pitch that well for 3 starts? If somehow Lee is able to win the game today, that gives the Phillies a lot more confidence and takes some away from the Yankees. It's too close to call before it starts. We have to see how this game goes and then we can see who has the edge.
Yes, whoever wins the first game will have a 1-0 edge in the series. That is amazing. No one has ever thought of that before.
The Yankees have the homefield edge and they haven't lost a playoff game in the new stadium.
Joe Morgan
(11:31 AM)
Looking forward to a great World Series. I just hope the weather allows the players to play at their highest level.
Sigh.
I'm gonna stop doing these because I feel like I'm not being terribly funny with them any more. Fire Joe Morgan : Justine Credible :: Mariano Rivera : every other relief pitcher ever.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
More chatting with Joe
I think, based on the comments and the dates, this chat took place after Game 3 of the ALCS and Game 4 of the NLCS. So yeah. There are a couple of things I cut out because I really couldn't be very funny/snarky/whatever about them.
Buzzmaster
(11:01 AM)
We're getting Joe right now!
Yeah well you better be.
Buzzmaster
(11:19 AM)
Hang in there folks. Looks like Joe may have gotten tied up with something.
NOOOOOOO
Buzzmaster
(11:35 AM)
Just kidding folks! We've got Joe. Let's do this!
YAAAAAYYYY
Joe Morgan
(11:37 AM)
It was great to see the game played properly in Anaheim after the cold weather in New York. The errors made because of the wet weather. It was just a well played game, forgetting who won.
Huh? It was only raining in one of the games in New York, and even then, only on and off (to be fair, when it was on, it was really on) in extra innings. I'm pretty sure the weather didn't make the two Angel infielders stand there like morons when a pop-up fell between them, or make Torii Hunter overrun a ball hit to the outfield. It didn't make Derek Jeter fumble that ground ball. And though Game 6 of the ALCS hadn't happened by the time of this chat, I'm pretty sure the cold in NY didn't make Scott Kazmir, raised in the Mets organization, unable to throw a bunt to first.
Joe Morgan
(11:37 AM)
Of course, the Phillies Dodgers game was fabulous as well.
FAAAAAABULOUS!!!
Larry Ellis (Toronto)
I think its time to say its so Joe, looks like its going to be an all east coast final. Any chance the Dodgers or Angels can turn their ships around?
Joe Morgan
(11:38 AM)
I think the Angels have a better chance of turning things around than the Dodgers. But it does look like it might be an all-east coast final. It would be difficult for the Angels to win 3 of the next 4. And the Dodgers have to win all four. Very difficult.
Huh? If I'm right about the date when he wrote this, the Angels were behind in the series one game to two (or three). The Dodgers, one game to three. They'd both have to win just three games. The Dodgers didn't fall behind 0-3 in the series.
drew (delaware)
Hey Joe! How about that phillies bullpen last night? Why do you think they've been so good this postseason?
Joe Morgan
(11:39 AM)
That's a very good question. But I think everyone, wratchets up their intensity this time of year. If you can focus on one pitch, one hitter, you can do a good job. They've always had some guys capable. You know Lidge is capable, Madsen is capable, it's just a matter of getting it done. If they weren't capable, they wouldn't be in the big leagues.
But... but... I thought he said that only Lidge could close games...
Hoopes (Philly)
How special is this Philadelphia baseball team? This post season seems very special. Are they destined to win?
I dunno how special the 2009 Phillies were but Hoopes here certainly sounds kinda "special" him/herself.
Joe Morgan
(11:40 AM)
I think that's the key for them, they never quit. Harry Kalas, a close friend of mine and former broadcaster for the Phillies, called them the Fightin' Phils. We've seen that. Not just this postseason, but last postseason as well. They seem to like each other, like playing with each other and never quit. I think they're an exceptional team.
Why the Phillies are good:
1. they fight
2. they like each other
3. they don't quit
4. they're an exceptional team
Brilliant, Joe. Really.
Roller (Kentucky)
Joe, what in the world is going on with playing baseball in the winter?? Can something be done, and was the Cards getting knocked out in the first round one of the biggest upsets of all time??
Early November's not really the "winter" but okay. It is really really ridiculously late. The Cards getting knocked out, and not only knocked out but swept, in the first round, was fairly surprising, but I mean, looking back, the 2009 Cardinals weren't so amazing that them getting eliminated in the first round was an all-time shocker. It's a short series, anything can happen. You could argue they were maybe the best built for a short series, because they had the two studs at the top of their order. But it also showed how little things can screw you over in a short series. Chris Carpenter wasn't great for one game and the Cardinals' hitters, who are a pretty pathetic bunch outside of Pujols (who got intentionally walked all night) and Holliday, couldn't get the hits they needed off of Randy Wolf. Then, a day later, Matt Holliday dropped an easy fly ball that would have been the third out of the ninth inning; it lead to the Cardinals' closer blowing a save. Do really really good teams sometimes have two ugly games out of three over the course of a season? Yeah. The Yankees lost two out of three to the Nationals, including getting shut out. In the regular season, that's not really a big deal. In the postseason, that'd put them on the brink of elimination.
Joe Morgan
(11:42 AM)
It's the worst possible conditions for baseball. You do not get the players at their best. We saw mental mistakes due to the weather. Physical errors due to the weather. It's just hard for players to play baseball in the harder weather. Baseball is more of a finesse sport and a game of skill. You can't exhibit your skills when you're cold and the conditions are bad. The only thing that could be done is start the season earlier.
Aaah, what?! I talked about this before. How do we know they were making mental mistakes because of the weather? I know it's not the best playing conditions but these guys are professionals. You really think, like, Bobby Abreu is gonna be like "Oh, it's raining. OH SHIT I SHOULD HAVE CAUGHT THAT BALL!!!"
Steve (PA)
So who wins, Phillies or Yankees? Looks like they both have some post season magic.
Joe Morgan
(11:43 AM)
Well, the Yankees would have the homefield advantage, which I think with two teams who are closely matched, that would give them an edge. That's why I think it's so stupid to have the homefield riding on the all-star game.
Yay!
It should be alternating like before. That was a fair way of doing it.
Boo! (It should go to the team with the best record.)
But the Yankees would have the edge because of the homefield. But we still have to get there with the Yankees. I think the Phillies are assured of getting there, but the Yankees have to win one of the next two games in Anaheim.
Well they didn't literally have to. It would have put them on the brink of elimination if they didn't, but they were still gonna go home 2-3.
With CC going today, that looks like a good possibility.
Steve (PA)
Do you think Padilla can throw in a repeat performance of game 2? Hes in Philly now and the fans are gonna get on him to try and rattle him, plus howard is on such a roll.
Joe Morgan
(11:45 AM)
I think he can pitch well, but that doesn't mean that he's going to win. The Phillies have the momentum. They have the home crowd behind them. I think the Phillies are in great shape. I think he will pitch a good game, but that doesn't mean he wins. I just think the Phillies have too much momentum and will close it out.
You just made a bunch of Dodger fans cry, Joe. I hope you're happy. (And he pitched a shitty game. The magical Vicente Padilla dust wore off, oh well.)
SteveFitz (Cicero, IL)
Joe, is this the offseason where the Phillies have to maybe trade one of its better players due to higher pay raises now or in the near future? Maybe Werth?
Joe Morgan
(11:46 AM)
Well if they win another championship, I don't see why you would break them up. Payrolls are not my expertise. I believe that you just go out there to try and win. If you have the winning combination there, you keep them together. I saw the team I was on, the Reds, we won two straight championships and if we had stayed together, we would have won three straight. If you take one player away, you disrupt it and then you don't know what you're going to get.
What?! Pretty much every team has flaws, even World Series-winning teams. The 1998 Yankees traded away a guy who pitched a PERFECT GAME that year and guess what? They won the next year, too. Paul O'Neill was on three World Series-winning teams in a row. WHY ISN'T HE STILL ON THE YANKEES?!?!? (The sad thing is, a lot of Yankee fans kinda think like this.)
Also, nobody cares about you, Joe.
drew (delaware)
Do you think Joe Girardi can be thanked for part A-Rod's success this postseason? He seems like there is just no pressure now after years of being overwhelmed by it.
Sigh
Joe Morgan
(11:48 AM)
I'm not in the lockerroom, so I can't answer that. All I can say is that A-Rod is more relaxed. He just seems more focused. I do believe that a manager does deserve some of the credit for how some of his players perform. If you're going to fire him for when they don't perform, then you have to give some credit when they do perform. I just don't know how much credit.
This is... a non-answer.
Roger (DC)
With the way both teams can mash, the DH will be in favor of the phillies no? They can reduce the weak link in their lineup with someone like stairs or francisco. Yanks will have to ditch someone like Matsui or swisher etc. in Philly. Seems to me like the SPs would be pretty close as well.
Yeah, losing Matsui would probably hurt the Yankees, but Francisco's league average bat? Matt Stairs, well, if he hits anything it's a home run, but since the All-Star break, he had just 1 HR and a .431 OPS. Ouch.
Joe Morgan
(11:49 AM)
It will give them an opportunity to improve that lineup. But the Yankees play with the DH. They're accustomed to doing that. It's more of an adjustment for the DH in Philadelphia. Whoever they have in the DH isn't used to doing that.
???? I'm pretty sure whoever they were gonna use for the DH is, you know, used to hitting, Joe. It's not like they were gonna DH J.A. Happ or their first base coach.
Eric (San Diego)
Watching the Angels/Yankees Game last night I noticed Mariano spitting on the ball after checking to see if anyone was looking, is this an issue? There is video of it on Youtube
OH JESUS CHRIST.
Joe Morgan
(11:51 AM)
No, I didn't notice that. Let's put it this way, the pitch he throws, spitting on it wouldn't help. Mariano Rivera is the greatest postseason pitcher in baseball. He doesn't need any help. The hitters need help. Last night's performance for Rivera, put another star on his legend. From watching from my perspective what he did was unbelieveable. He went through the best hitters in that lineup. It was unbelievable.
For one thing, calm down, Joe, though I agree and appreciate it. He's right that spitting on the ball wouldn't help, though. And... like... do people realize that a spitball isn't done by actually spitting on the ball? And even if it was, you know, Mariano Rivera has been pitching since 1995. From 1995 to 1997 or so, he pretty much strictly threw a fastball. He threw really hard and, as he does now, he had absolutely amazing control. Anyway, in 1997, he developed his cutter, and he's been doing that ever since. Do you really think that if the secret to the cutter was that he was secretly spitting all over the ball every time he came out, someone wouldn't have caught him doing so already?
The best thing about the whole ZOMG TEH SPITBALL thing was that it introduced the term "spit halo." That sounds like something you'd find on a fetish site.
Chris (Severna Park, MD)
So do you see the Yankees blowing this series or do you see them finishing off the Halos before a possible game six
Well that's kind of a depressing way to put it.
Joe Morgan
(11:52 AM)
They will not blow the series. The Angels are going to have to win it. What it really does is tell you how important Game 2 is, when the Angels blew the lead. That game, in my opinion, will keep them from winning it. If they could go 1-1 they could come home and win 2 of 3 and go to New York and just have to win 1. But now, if they win 2 of 3 at home, they have to win both in New York. Game 2 was the biggest game in this series, as far as I'm concerned.
that's... uh... nice?
Ricardo (California)
If the Dodgers do manage to win game 5 and take the series back to Los Angeles, do you think the Dodgers will still have a chance to win the series?
Dude, as long as the Dodgers aren't eliminated, they have "a chance" to win the series. Maybe they have a pretty damn small chance, but it's a chance.
Joe Morgan
(11:54 AM)
Years ago, when the Yankees went up 3-0 on Boston, I said Boston had no chance. I will never say that again, because Boston came back and won. They won 4 straight against the Yankees, the best team I thought, at the time. Now, the Dodgers have to win 3 straight. That's a tough, tough task, but not impossible, because it's been proven that it can be done.
a. YOU HAD TO MAKE ME RELIVE THIS, DIDN'T YOU JOE?!?!
b. This is in retrospect, but as I wasn't much into baseball analysis in high school, I don't really see how you can say the 2004 Yankees were better than the 2004 Red Sox. The 2004 Red Sox were a really good team and the 2004 Yankees, well, they weren't bad or anything, but they seriously lacked pitching and Boston had a slightly better offense than them to boot. The only area where they really had an advantage was the bullpen, but Tom Gordon was rancid that entire postseason and Mo had his one not great postseason then.
c. OK Joe, whatevs.
David Walker (Newark, DE)
Is there a better hitter this post season than ryan howard?
Through these respective games:
Ryan Howard .379/.457/.793/1.250
Alex Rodriguez .348/.407/.870/1.277
So, yes. A-Rod. But just slightly. Clearly, these two guys were murdering everything they saw.
Joe Morgan
(11:56 AM)
Not in the recent past, unless you count A-Rod.
"the recent past"? Manny had an OPS of 1.747 in the 2008 postseason. That's ridiculous.
He's doing it as well. I've been really impressed with Ryan Howard. On the broadcast the other day, I said he is not who we thought he was. We thought he was a guy who hit home runs and struck out. Now, he's not striking out and driving in runs.
Ryan Howard's home runs, RBIs, and strikeouts by year...
2005: 22 HR, 63 RBI, 100 K (in 88 games)
2006: 58 HR, 149 RBI, 181 K
2007: 47 HR, 136 RBI, 199 K
2008: 48 HR, 146 RBI, 199 K
2009: 45 HR, 141 RBI, 186 K
You know, it seems like he's a guy that hits a lot of home runs, drives in a ton of RBI, and strikes out a whole bunch, so it's not unfair to describe him like that. Also, he struck out eight times between the NLDS and the NLCS before the World Series turned into Strikeoutapalooza for him so he was, indeed, striking out.
It seems like he's more in a crouch now and he's using his hands more. Before, he was using his arms and moving his body all around and he was striking out more. Now, there's less movement and he's making more contact. Right now, I think he's swinging the bat better than anyone other than A-Rod.
Um, okay. Whatevs. This sounds like he's dancing or something.
Daniel (Raleigh)
If the Angels are able to tie up the series today in Anaheim, how much does that play into the World Series for the Yankees, assuming they get there? I mean, this 3 man rotation has to come back to bite them, right?
TEH THREE DAYS REST!!!!!!
Joe Morgan
(12:00 PM)
I don't think that's a problem, if the Yankees are able to wrap it up soon. Remember, the World Series doesn't start until Wednesday. I've watched Josh Beckett and other top notch pitchers pitch on early rest.
But I thought Beckett wasn't as dominant as he once was!
There seems to be a lot of people who use statistics to say it doesn't work out, historically. But you have to look at the pitchers you're looking at. CC pitched on short rest last year to get the Brewers into the playoffs. You ahve to take into consideration who is pitching and I think CC is capable on pitching on short rest. If the Yankees win the series, I think they'll be in a good situation, unless CC has to pitch the seventh game.
Huh? This reminds me of when Tim McCarver said something like, "If CC pitches Game 1 of the World Series, the Yankees will know they won the ALCS." Amazing. That's almost Yogi-esque.
Joe Morgan
(12:01 PM)
I still think we have a lot of good baseball left before we get to the World Series. I think we'll have a good World Series, depending on the weather.
I know Joe is probably still going on about people making "mental errors" because of the weather, but it's not like we had ever seen something so crazy as the weather having some weird effect on a World Series game. No, no. Then again, I wouldn't really call the 2008 World Series a particularly good/re-watchable World Series.
Buzzmaster
(11:01 AM)
We're getting Joe right now!
Yeah well you better be.
Buzzmaster
(11:19 AM)
Hang in there folks. Looks like Joe may have gotten tied up with something.
NOOOOOOO
Buzzmaster
(11:35 AM)
Just kidding folks! We've got Joe. Let's do this!
YAAAAAYYYY
Joe Morgan
(11:37 AM)
It was great to see the game played properly in Anaheim after the cold weather in New York. The errors made because of the wet weather. It was just a well played game, forgetting who won.
Huh? It was only raining in one of the games in New York, and even then, only on and off (to be fair, when it was on, it was really on) in extra innings. I'm pretty sure the weather didn't make the two Angel infielders stand there like morons when a pop-up fell between them, or make Torii Hunter overrun a ball hit to the outfield. It didn't make Derek Jeter fumble that ground ball. And though Game 6 of the ALCS hadn't happened by the time of this chat, I'm pretty sure the cold in NY didn't make Scott Kazmir, raised in the Mets organization, unable to throw a bunt to first.
Joe Morgan
(11:37 AM)
Of course, the Phillies Dodgers game was fabulous as well.
FAAAAAABULOUS!!!
Larry Ellis (Toronto)
I think its time to say its so Joe, looks like its going to be an all east coast final. Any chance the Dodgers or Angels can turn their ships around?
Joe Morgan
(11:38 AM)
I think the Angels have a better chance of turning things around than the Dodgers. But it does look like it might be an all-east coast final. It would be difficult for the Angels to win 3 of the next 4. And the Dodgers have to win all four. Very difficult.
Huh? If I'm right about the date when he wrote this, the Angels were behind in the series one game to two (or three). The Dodgers, one game to three. They'd both have to win just three games. The Dodgers didn't fall behind 0-3 in the series.
drew (delaware)
Hey Joe! How about that phillies bullpen last night? Why do you think they've been so good this postseason?
Joe Morgan
(11:39 AM)
That's a very good question. But I think everyone, wratchets up their intensity this time of year. If you can focus on one pitch, one hitter, you can do a good job. They've always had some guys capable. You know Lidge is capable, Madsen is capable, it's just a matter of getting it done. If they weren't capable, they wouldn't be in the big leagues.
But... but... I thought he said that only Lidge could close games...
Hoopes (Philly)
How special is this Philadelphia baseball team? This post season seems very special. Are they destined to win?
I dunno how special the 2009 Phillies were but Hoopes here certainly sounds kinda "special" him/herself.
Joe Morgan
(11:40 AM)
I think that's the key for them, they never quit. Harry Kalas, a close friend of mine and former broadcaster for the Phillies, called them the Fightin' Phils. We've seen that. Not just this postseason, but last postseason as well. They seem to like each other, like playing with each other and never quit. I think they're an exceptional team.
Why the Phillies are good:
1. they fight
2. they like each other
3. they don't quit
4. they're an exceptional team
Brilliant, Joe. Really.
Roller (Kentucky)
Joe, what in the world is going on with playing baseball in the winter?? Can something be done, and was the Cards getting knocked out in the first round one of the biggest upsets of all time??
Early November's not really the "winter" but okay. It is really really ridiculously late. The Cards getting knocked out, and not only knocked out but swept, in the first round, was fairly surprising, but I mean, looking back, the 2009 Cardinals weren't so amazing that them getting eliminated in the first round was an all-time shocker. It's a short series, anything can happen. You could argue they were maybe the best built for a short series, because they had the two studs at the top of their order. But it also showed how little things can screw you over in a short series. Chris Carpenter wasn't great for one game and the Cardinals' hitters, who are a pretty pathetic bunch outside of Pujols (who got intentionally walked all night) and Holliday, couldn't get the hits they needed off of Randy Wolf. Then, a day later, Matt Holliday dropped an easy fly ball that would have been the third out of the ninth inning; it lead to the Cardinals' closer blowing a save. Do really really good teams sometimes have two ugly games out of three over the course of a season? Yeah. The Yankees lost two out of three to the Nationals, including getting shut out. In the regular season, that's not really a big deal. In the postseason, that'd put them on the brink of elimination.
Joe Morgan
(11:42 AM)
It's the worst possible conditions for baseball. You do not get the players at their best. We saw mental mistakes due to the weather. Physical errors due to the weather. It's just hard for players to play baseball in the harder weather. Baseball is more of a finesse sport and a game of skill. You can't exhibit your skills when you're cold and the conditions are bad. The only thing that could be done is start the season earlier.
Aaah, what?! I talked about this before. How do we know they were making mental mistakes because of the weather? I know it's not the best playing conditions but these guys are professionals. You really think, like, Bobby Abreu is gonna be like "Oh, it's raining. OH SHIT I SHOULD HAVE CAUGHT THAT BALL!!!"
Steve (PA)
So who wins, Phillies or Yankees? Looks like they both have some post season magic.
Joe Morgan
(11:43 AM)
Well, the Yankees would have the homefield advantage, which I think with two teams who are closely matched, that would give them an edge. That's why I think it's so stupid to have the homefield riding on the all-star game.
Yay!
It should be alternating like before. That was a fair way of doing it.
Boo! (It should go to the team with the best record.)
But the Yankees would have the edge because of the homefield. But we still have to get there with the Yankees. I think the Phillies are assured of getting there, but the Yankees have to win one of the next two games in Anaheim.
Well they didn't literally have to. It would have put them on the brink of elimination if they didn't, but they were still gonna go home 2-3.
With CC going today, that looks like a good possibility.
Steve (PA)
Do you think Padilla can throw in a repeat performance of game 2? Hes in Philly now and the fans are gonna get on him to try and rattle him, plus howard is on such a roll.
Joe Morgan
(11:45 AM)
I think he can pitch well, but that doesn't mean that he's going to win. The Phillies have the momentum. They have the home crowd behind them. I think the Phillies are in great shape. I think he will pitch a good game, but that doesn't mean he wins. I just think the Phillies have too much momentum and will close it out.
You just made a bunch of Dodger fans cry, Joe. I hope you're happy. (And he pitched a shitty game. The magical Vicente Padilla dust wore off, oh well.)
SteveFitz (Cicero, IL)
Joe, is this the offseason where the Phillies have to maybe trade one of its better players due to higher pay raises now or in the near future? Maybe Werth?
Joe Morgan
(11:46 AM)
Well if they win another championship, I don't see why you would break them up. Payrolls are not my expertise. I believe that you just go out there to try and win. If you have the winning combination there, you keep them together. I saw the team I was on, the Reds, we won two straight championships and if we had stayed together, we would have won three straight. If you take one player away, you disrupt it and then you don't know what you're going to get.
What?! Pretty much every team has flaws, even World Series-winning teams. The 1998 Yankees traded away a guy who pitched a PERFECT GAME that year and guess what? They won the next year, too. Paul O'Neill was on three World Series-winning teams in a row. WHY ISN'T HE STILL ON THE YANKEES?!?!? (The sad thing is, a lot of Yankee fans kinda think like this.)
Also, nobody cares about you, Joe.
drew (delaware)
Do you think Joe Girardi can be thanked for part A-Rod's success this postseason? He seems like there is just no pressure now after years of being overwhelmed by it.
Sigh
Joe Morgan
(11:48 AM)
I'm not in the lockerroom, so I can't answer that. All I can say is that A-Rod is more relaxed. He just seems more focused. I do believe that a manager does deserve some of the credit for how some of his players perform. If you're going to fire him for when they don't perform, then you have to give some credit when they do perform. I just don't know how much credit.
This is... a non-answer.
Roger (DC)
With the way both teams can mash, the DH will be in favor of the phillies no? They can reduce the weak link in their lineup with someone like stairs or francisco. Yanks will have to ditch someone like Matsui or swisher etc. in Philly. Seems to me like the SPs would be pretty close as well.
Yeah, losing Matsui would probably hurt the Yankees, but Francisco's league average bat? Matt Stairs, well, if he hits anything it's a home run, but since the All-Star break, he had just 1 HR and a .431 OPS. Ouch.
Joe Morgan
(11:49 AM)
It will give them an opportunity to improve that lineup. But the Yankees play with the DH. They're accustomed to doing that. It's more of an adjustment for the DH in Philadelphia. Whoever they have in the DH isn't used to doing that.
???? I'm pretty sure whoever they were gonna use for the DH is, you know, used to hitting, Joe. It's not like they were gonna DH J.A. Happ or their first base coach.
Eric (San Diego)
Watching the Angels/Yankees Game last night I noticed Mariano spitting on the ball after checking to see if anyone was looking, is this an issue? There is video of it on Youtube
OH JESUS CHRIST.
Joe Morgan
(11:51 AM)
No, I didn't notice that. Let's put it this way, the pitch he throws, spitting on it wouldn't help. Mariano Rivera is the greatest postseason pitcher in baseball. He doesn't need any help. The hitters need help. Last night's performance for Rivera, put another star on his legend. From watching from my perspective what he did was unbelieveable. He went through the best hitters in that lineup. It was unbelievable.
For one thing, calm down, Joe, though I agree and appreciate it. He's right that spitting on the ball wouldn't help, though. And... like... do people realize that a spitball isn't done by actually spitting on the ball? And even if it was, you know, Mariano Rivera has been pitching since 1995. From 1995 to 1997 or so, he pretty much strictly threw a fastball. He threw really hard and, as he does now, he had absolutely amazing control. Anyway, in 1997, he developed his cutter, and he's been doing that ever since. Do you really think that if the secret to the cutter was that he was secretly spitting all over the ball every time he came out, someone wouldn't have caught him doing so already?
The best thing about the whole ZOMG TEH SPITBALL thing was that it introduced the term "spit halo." That sounds like something you'd find on a fetish site.
Chris (Severna Park, MD)
So do you see the Yankees blowing this series or do you see them finishing off the Halos before a possible game six
Well that's kind of a depressing way to put it.
Joe Morgan
(11:52 AM)
They will not blow the series. The Angels are going to have to win it. What it really does is tell you how important Game 2 is, when the Angels blew the lead. That game, in my opinion, will keep them from winning it. If they could go 1-1 they could come home and win 2 of 3 and go to New York and just have to win 1. But now, if they win 2 of 3 at home, they have to win both in New York. Game 2 was the biggest game in this series, as far as I'm concerned.
that's... uh... nice?
Ricardo (California)
If the Dodgers do manage to win game 5 and take the series back to Los Angeles, do you think the Dodgers will still have a chance to win the series?
Dude, as long as the Dodgers aren't eliminated, they have "a chance" to win the series. Maybe they have a pretty damn small chance, but it's a chance.
Joe Morgan
(11:54 AM)
Years ago, when the Yankees went up 3-0 on Boston, I said Boston had no chance. I will never say that again, because Boston came back and won. They won 4 straight against the Yankees, the best team I thought, at the time. Now, the Dodgers have to win 3 straight. That's a tough, tough task, but not impossible, because it's been proven that it can be done.
a. YOU HAD TO MAKE ME RELIVE THIS, DIDN'T YOU JOE?!?!
b. This is in retrospect, but as I wasn't much into baseball analysis in high school, I don't really see how you can say the 2004 Yankees were better than the 2004 Red Sox. The 2004 Red Sox were a really good team and the 2004 Yankees, well, they weren't bad or anything, but they seriously lacked pitching and Boston had a slightly better offense than them to boot. The only area where they really had an advantage was the bullpen, but Tom Gordon was rancid that entire postseason and Mo had his one not great postseason then.
c. OK Joe, whatevs.
David Walker (Newark, DE)
Is there a better hitter this post season than ryan howard?
Through these respective games:
Ryan Howard .379/.457/.793/1.250
Alex Rodriguez .348/.407/.870/1.277
So, yes. A-Rod. But just slightly. Clearly, these two guys were murdering everything they saw.
Joe Morgan
(11:56 AM)
Not in the recent past, unless you count A-Rod.
"the recent past"? Manny had an OPS of 1.747 in the 2008 postseason. That's ridiculous.
He's doing it as well. I've been really impressed with Ryan Howard. On the broadcast the other day, I said he is not who we thought he was. We thought he was a guy who hit home runs and struck out. Now, he's not striking out and driving in runs.
Ryan Howard's home runs, RBIs, and strikeouts by year...
2005: 22 HR, 63 RBI, 100 K (in 88 games)
2006: 58 HR, 149 RBI, 181 K
2007: 47 HR, 136 RBI, 199 K
2008: 48 HR, 146 RBI, 199 K
2009: 45 HR, 141 RBI, 186 K
You know, it seems like he's a guy that hits a lot of home runs, drives in a ton of RBI, and strikes out a whole bunch, so it's not unfair to describe him like that. Also, he struck out eight times between the NLDS and the NLCS before the World Series turned into Strikeoutapalooza for him so he was, indeed, striking out.
It seems like he's more in a crouch now and he's using his hands more. Before, he was using his arms and moving his body all around and he was striking out more. Now, there's less movement and he's making more contact. Right now, I think he's swinging the bat better than anyone other than A-Rod.
Um, okay. Whatevs. This sounds like he's dancing or something.
Daniel (Raleigh)
If the Angels are able to tie up the series today in Anaheim, how much does that play into the World Series for the Yankees, assuming they get there? I mean, this 3 man rotation has to come back to bite them, right?
TEH THREE DAYS REST!!!!!!
Joe Morgan
(12:00 PM)
I don't think that's a problem, if the Yankees are able to wrap it up soon. Remember, the World Series doesn't start until Wednesday. I've watched Josh Beckett and other top notch pitchers pitch on early rest.
But I thought Beckett wasn't as dominant as he once was!
There seems to be a lot of people who use statistics to say it doesn't work out, historically. But you have to look at the pitchers you're looking at. CC pitched on short rest last year to get the Brewers into the playoffs. You ahve to take into consideration who is pitching and I think CC is capable on pitching on short rest. If the Yankees win the series, I think they'll be in a good situation, unless CC has to pitch the seventh game.
Huh? This reminds me of when Tim McCarver said something like, "If CC pitches Game 1 of the World Series, the Yankees will know they won the ALCS." Amazing. That's almost Yogi-esque.
Joe Morgan
(12:01 PM)
I still think we have a lot of good baseball left before we get to the World Series. I think we'll have a good World Series, depending on the weather.
I know Joe is probably still going on about people making "mental errors" because of the weather, but it's not like we had ever seen something so crazy as the weather having some weird effect on a World Series game. No, no. Then again, I wouldn't really call the 2008 World Series a particularly good/re-watchable World Series.
AHHHH ANTM CYCLE 14 GIRLS
I said I would talk about them. Here they are! I have to admit I think they're pretty good overall. They're at least interesting-looking, most of them. And, um... nice outfits... and names...
Gabrielle: She looks like an alien, but that's pretty much a good thing in fashion. I can see Tyra falling in love with her "unique face" or something. And yes, I like her hair. I think this girl could be awesome, or she could really suck in pictures.
Krista: She's pretty, with a great body, and she looks very tall. But she's 26 and she looks it. So that's all we're gonna hear about from Tyra and the judges. Oh, YAY.
Simone: She's 19? She looks older than Krista! I really hate her hair. Maybe I'll like her more with longer hair.
Raina: Like everyone seems to be, I AM OBSESSED WITH HERRRRRR. Holy shit, she's awesome. She looks like Analeigh and Jenah crossed. That's amaaaazing. Maybe her body could use a liiiiittle work, but eh, these girls are all kinda rough. Wow. What a picture. She's awesome.
Alexandra: I'm assuming she's a plussie. She reminds me of Whitney, a lot, because she's a plus-sized model (or she looks it, anyway......) and the look on her face, except she looks a little more snarly than Whitney. She also looks a bit alarmed. She's got a great body for modeling, though (provided she's a plus-sized model, because if she's not, then uh...).
Brenda: She's too boyish/androgynous for me. Pass. And she reminds me of a lame version of Marjorie or something.
Anslee: Part of this might be the terrible outfit (and the NAME), but she's another pass. She looks really harsh and her body needs a lot of work. Plus, the expression on her face is super cranky, so I am not enamored of her. I enjoy her being listed as a "Bar Tender," though. And looking at her face, she does have interesting bone structure, but she's also got, like, a sixteenhead.
Angelea: AAHAHAHAHHAHAH ANGELEA'S BACK WHAT A HOT MESS I LOVE IT SOOOOO MUCH. I thought she was kind of gross on last year's casting special, so I don't really approve of her being on ANTM. She's already got a really unattractive snarl on her face. But she'll bring the lols.
Naduah: Uh... I don't really know what to say with this one, except that very few people can pull off the bald look, and she is not really one of them. That eyeshadow doesn't help, though, so maybe she'll be better on the show.
Ren: "Occupation: Living." BAHAHAHA. She looks really awesome, too... except apparently, according to her Facebook, she signed up to try out for the show while drunk and actually made it on, but she took the whole thing as a joke and quit. Yeah, I hate that shit. It's why I can't stand C10 Lauren. But Ren is really pretty and I would probably love her if I didn't know she'd done that.
Jessica: She seems maybe a little bland or like she's trying too hard, but I think she's my second favorite. She's really pretty and at least she's trying to be interesting in her pose. Great legs, too.
Alasia: She's okay. She's really pretty but her pose is kind of weirding me out. Why would you try to look pigeon-toed? And she looks short, too. Bad eyeshadow.
Tatianna: Everyone keeps saying she looks like Tahlia, but her body isn't as busted as Tahlia's and she's also not nearly as pretty as Tahlia was. Really, she looks like a drag queen. Yikes. And that lipstick was just a horrible horrible life decision.
So, favorite to least favorite:
RAINA
Jessica
Ren
Gabrielle
Krista
Alexandra
Brenda
Naduah
Simone
Anslee
Alasia
Tatianna
Angelea
Gabrielle: She looks like an alien, but that's pretty much a good thing in fashion. I can see Tyra falling in love with her "unique face" or something. And yes, I like her hair. I think this girl could be awesome, or she could really suck in pictures.
Krista: She's pretty, with a great body, and she looks very tall. But she's 26 and she looks it. So that's all we're gonna hear about from Tyra and the judges. Oh, YAY.
Simone: She's 19? She looks older than Krista! I really hate her hair. Maybe I'll like her more with longer hair.
Raina: Like everyone seems to be, I AM OBSESSED WITH HERRRRRR. Holy shit, she's awesome. She looks like Analeigh and Jenah crossed. That's amaaaazing. Maybe her body could use a liiiiittle work, but eh, these girls are all kinda rough. Wow. What a picture. She's awesome.
Alexandra: I'm assuming she's a plussie. She reminds me of Whitney, a lot, because she's a plus-sized model (or she looks it, anyway......) and the look on her face, except she looks a little more snarly than Whitney. She also looks a bit alarmed. She's got a great body for modeling, though (provided she's a plus-sized model, because if she's not, then uh...).
Brenda: She's too boyish/androgynous for me. Pass. And she reminds me of a lame version of Marjorie or something.
Anslee: Part of this might be the terrible outfit (and the NAME), but she's another pass. She looks really harsh and her body needs a lot of work. Plus, the expression on her face is super cranky, so I am not enamored of her. I enjoy her being listed as a "Bar Tender," though. And looking at her face, she does have interesting bone structure, but she's also got, like, a sixteenhead.
Angelea: AAHAHAHAHHAHAH ANGELEA'S BACK WHAT A HOT MESS I LOVE IT SOOOOO MUCH. I thought she was kind of gross on last year's casting special, so I don't really approve of her being on ANTM. She's already got a really unattractive snarl on her face. But she'll bring the lols.
Naduah: Uh... I don't really know what to say with this one, except that very few people can pull off the bald look, and she is not really one of them. That eyeshadow doesn't help, though, so maybe she'll be better on the show.
Ren: "Occupation: Living." BAHAHAHA. She looks really awesome, too... except apparently, according to her Facebook, she signed up to try out for the show while drunk and actually made it on, but she took the whole thing as a joke and quit. Yeah, I hate that shit. It's why I can't stand C10 Lauren. But Ren is really pretty and I would probably love her if I didn't know she'd done that.
Jessica: She seems maybe a little bland or like she's trying too hard, but I think she's my second favorite. She's really pretty and at least she's trying to be interesting in her pose. Great legs, too.
Alasia: She's okay. She's really pretty but her pose is kind of weirding me out. Why would you try to look pigeon-toed? And she looks short, too. Bad eyeshadow.
Tatianna: Everyone keeps saying she looks like Tahlia, but her body isn't as busted as Tahlia's and she's also not nearly as pretty as Tahlia was. Really, she looks like a drag queen. Yikes. And that lipstick was just a horrible horrible life decision.
So, favorite to least favorite:
RAINA
Jessica
Ren
Gabrielle
Krista
Alexandra
Brenda
Naduah
Simone
Anslee
Alasia
Tatianna
Angelea
FJM chat #2
(pours one out for FJM)
Joe Morgan
(11:05 AM)
One of the things we had talked about before these series started is that in a short series if you make any mistakes in closing out the games, you are not going to be able to win. If in a short series, if you give away one game, it usually means you are going to lose the series.
This is true, but you know what's more true? Having bad starting pitching give away games.
In the series, the closers of the losing teams could not close out the series and in the case of one team, a mistake of an outfielder helped them not be able to close out the game.
Yeah, but there were still two out and just one guy on base. If Franklin strikes out the next guy, no one ever talks about that missed catch ever again.
In a longer series, you have a little more room for error for closing the series out. But in a shorter one, it's harder to regain your balance if you blow a save. St. Louis should have been going home 1-1, Minnesota should have been going home 1-1, Boston should have been 2-1,
1-2...
Colorado should have been 2-2 going back to Philadelphia. A lot of times it's not just the closers, it's the defensive play as well.
Yeah. And sometimes it's the starting pitching. And sometimes it's the offense not showing up. Watching the playoffs become Survivor: MLB Closers was fun this year, because Mo was the last one standing at the end. But it was a flukey thing that hadn't ever happened before and probably won't happen again for a really long time.
Joe Morgan
(11:06 AM)
In the case of the Twins, they made a lot of base running mistakes also.
*is Nick Punto* *runs around like a moron*
I'm SO glad the Yankees caught him off of third because if he'd scored we would have heard so much Punto ball-gargling about what a daring, gritty player he is.
Tony (Rochester, NY)
Mr. Hall of Fame Joe Morgan,
that just makes me LOL.
what do you think the dodgers need to do if they are able to turn the tide and advance to the world series by beating philly?
Joe Morgan
(11:07 AM)
Well, the Dodgers need to play as they did against the Cardinals.
The Dodgers need to play like they did in the series that they won. Again, brilliant.
The Cardinals were the favorite, but they were not intimidated. This year, they'll play the first game at home, whereas last year it was played in Philly. The Dodgers are on a roll right now and I wouldn't put it past them to beat the Phillies. But the Phillies' power is still going to be a key element to this series.
Right. And so is the Dodgers' pitching. It was pretty exciting going into this series, because it was the classic battle of pitching vs. power. Except it wasn't close and the Dodgers' pitching totally shit the bed. Boooooo.
tom* (parkville, md)
Did you ever play in a postseason game where it snowed?
What the...?
Joe Morgan
(11:09 AM)
The very first Sunday Night game was played in Cincinnati against the Yankees and that would have been in 1976, I think. I think it had maybe snowed a little bit that morning, but it was a night game and it was just cold and not snowing. The answer is probably no. I've played in days where it snowed, but not games where it snowed. The very first game I played in Cincinnati after I was traded, it snowed and I thought the game had been cancelled. Pete Rose called me and said get to the ballpark. I was from California and wasn't used to playing baseball after it had snowed.
OH MY GOD NO ONE CARES
Chris (Boston)
Do the Yanks have the pitching to keep the Angels off the bases and keep them from scoring runs?
Call it a hunch, but I really think the Angels were gonna score at least one run in a four-game series at minimum.
Joe Morgan
(11:12 AM)
I don't think anybody can shut the Angels down completely.
They got shut out 6 times this year. That's a pretty damn good number, but yeah, I guess those 6 guys, whoever they were, can shut them down completely.
They have a couple of very good hitters, guys right around .300. They also will work some walks other than Vlad. I don't think they'll keep them off the bases.
Well - yeah. You'd have to throw a perfect game to keep them off the bases entirely. That hasn't happened in the postseason since 1956.
Once they get on base, they'll try to take advantage of the Yankees starters, by disrupting them by stealing bases. The Yankees' power will be very important to the Yankees.
Redundancy department of redundancy. Also, whaaa, how did he go from talking about the Angels stealing bases to the Yankees hitting a lot of home runs? Stay on topic!!!
They'll have to hit it out of the park to beat the Angels. The Twins had to work hard to score runs
That more speaks to the fact that the Yankees got very very good pitching during the ALDS, but okay
and then the Yankees would offset that with one swing of the bat. Can the Angels pitchers keep the Yankees hitters from dominating with their power like they did against the Twins? My answer is, I think they will. I think this will be a good series. It will be a good example of how there is more than one way to play the game. The Yankees will play with power and the Angels with speed and fundamentals.
The "fundamentals" thing is especially funny in retrospect, but yeah, the Yankees weren't gonna play with fundamentals. When they got a hit, they were gonna run out of the box and try going to third instead of first. If the batter hit a ground ball to Derek with nobody on, he would just throw it into the outfield. When it came to catching pop-ups, Derek and Cano would just say "no, you get it" while it dropped between them (heh, the Angels actually did that). Pitching? Eh, CC and Mariano were just gonna roll the ball toward the batter's box and hope it got there and the hitters would swing at it. The Yankees care not for these "fundamentals." They would, however, hit a home run every time they were up, because they play with "power."
Adam (Philadelphia)
Do you think the Phillies can still win if Cole Hamels continues to struggle?
Joe Morgan
(11:14 AM)
Yes. In a seven game series, I think they can. They have enough power and good hitting to offset some inadequacies that they have with their starting pitching.
But! I THOUGHT YOU DIDN'T SCORE RUNS IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!
The Phillies are a very interesting team to me. Harry Kalas, their former annoucner and my close friend, always called them the Fightin' Phils. They fight to the end. I think they're a very interesting team because of that. You don't know what you're going to get, but they always fight hard to the end.
What the hell? This is just weird. He writes like a fifth grader, I swear.
Joe Morgan
(11:15 AM)
A great example is that we always talk about the strikeouts that Ryan Howard has, but he was in the spotlight last night tying up the game. He didn't strikeout. You just never know what you're going to get other than great effort.
???? Ryan Howard strikes out a lot, yes. He's also a really scary hitter who hits with a ton of power. He hit the most home runs in all of baseball in 2006 (58!!!) and 2008 and was only two behind the leader this year. RBI are dumb, but he's driven in, since 2006, 149, 136, 146, and 141 runs. Those totals of 149 in 2006, 146 in 2008, and 141 in 2009 led baseball. People talk about that wayyyy more than his strikeouts.
Shane (Knoxville)
Joe, honestly... if you were the manager of the Phillies, would you have had the confidence to go with Lidge those last two games?
Joe Morgan
(11:17 AM)
I said this at the beginning of the postseason - the only way the Phillies can win the championship and repeat is if Lidge is closing the games. You can't do it with someone knew to the situation.
First things first, hahaha, "knew" just makes me laugh. Secondly, and more importantly, sure you can. The 1998 Yankees went into the playoffs with Mariano Rivera as their closer. Yeah, he'd done well in 1996 as a setup man, but he blew a save in the 1997 ALDS that basically took the Yankees out of it. He wasn't necessarily "proven." Guess what? He totally ruled those playoffs. Jonathan Papelbon had never been to the postseason before 2007, and he was great during the Red Sox's run. Lidge had struggled before 2008 in the postseason, but he was awesome in 2008.
Lidge has proven that he can do it in the past.
And he's proven that he can serve up walk-off home runs to guys with no home runs all year.
My answer is yes, because that's the only way they can do it. You can't win the championship without an established closer.
Closers on WS-winning teams since 1995 -
1995: Mark Wohlers
1996: John Wetteland
1997: Robb Nen
1998: Mariano Rivera
1999: Mariano Rivera
2000: Mariano Rivera
2001: Byung-Hyun Kim
2002: Troy Percival
2003: Ugueth Urbina
2004: Keith Foulke
2005: Bobby Jenks
2006: Adam Wainwright
2007: Jonathan Papelbon
2008: Brad Lidge
2009: Mariano Rivera
Despite the fact that I think most relief pitchers are pretty much interchangeable, I'm also one of those people that think the Yankees might not have had that three-year run without Mo. So having a truly elite closer can help. But Nen? Kim? Urbina? Guys who were, at the time, unproven, like Wohlers, Wetteland (totally sucked in the 1995 playoffs), Percival, Jenks, Wainwright, and Papelbon? Mariano Rivera could have had the ability to pitch like that as a reliever in the postseason throughout his career, but if he'd been signed by the Pirates and been forced to be a starter because they didn't have anyone else to pitch, we would never know how amazing he is.
It shows you how great Mariano Rivera is and has been throughout his career.
Well we can agree on that. Yay.
Joe Morgan
(11:17 AM)
He's been unbelievable as far as closing out games in the postseason. But I think Lidge is very capable of getting the job done in the postseason.
Wait, huh, who? I guess he was talking about Mo in that first "he" there. I assumed Lidge and got really confused.
I don't know if everyone noticed, but Charlie Manuel did something great in the first game in Colorado. He went out to Lidge and was very emphatically telling Lidge that he wants him to go out there and throw the ball hard and we'll see what happens.
The manager told his pitcher to throw the ball hard. Wow.
Lidge got out of the jam throwing all fastballs. I think we'll see him be very aggressive.
Noooo, I think most closers are generally scared of various hitters and nibble. Algjaldjg. (please note that this may be true for Jonathan Broxton and Matt Fucking Stairs.)
Eric (Rhode ISland)
Do you think the Red Sox would have beaten LA if Varitek was behind the plate? He's such a great game caller, certainly he would have helped.
Eeeeeek. Boston's biggest problem in this series wasn't pitching, minus Papelbon's explosion. It was the offense. The Red Sox scored a total of seven runs in three games, with six of those runs coming in the one game they played at Fenway. V-Mart had a rather pathetic .432 OPS in the series, but hey, he actually had 2 RBIs. That's over a quarter of Boston's runs. I don't think Varitek would have helped there.
Joe Morgan
(11:22 AM)
I don't agree.
Oh thank God.
I think Varitek obviously has been good at calling pitches over the years,
Fastball fastball fastball fastball fastball fastball.
but what I saw down the stretch is he wasn't as good defensively blocking pitches.
Aaaand he can't throw anyone out (neither can V-Mart, but V-Mart can hit).
Offensively, he wasn't going to add anything. I'm one of these people who believe pitchers, the good pitchers, call their own games. I've seen Lester call Varitek off. I've seen Beckett do the same thing. I don't think he could have made a difference in that series. I saw Burnett pitch a one-hitter against the Red Sox in seven innings in August as he matched up against Beckett and Posada was catching. The next time he gave up some home runs and it was Posada's fault. I just think that a catcher makes a difference if he's a great defensive catcher, but in this case, the pitchers pitched well up to a point. I don't think it would have made any difference.
This............. totally makes sense. Oh my God. I don't even know what to say. I'm gonna pass out.
Ken (Atlanta)
I like how you point out that the Angles will beat the yankees with speed, although the yankees have a better stolen base percentage, the Angles do have 37 more stolen bases and will keep posada busy. Who takes the series?
I'm not sure if this is Joe-baiting. ANGLES! Lolz. And the Yankees suck for not running into more outs, they should do that more often!
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
It's hard for me to pick a winner until I see them start to play.
Cop-out!!!!!
The other thing about a lot of stolen base attempts - you keep the infielders jumpy on defense and you stay in the pitcher's mind. It changes the pitch calling. You won't see a lot of changeups. The catcher has to call something hard like a fastball or slider. That will change how they pitch in certain situations. It's not just the stolen base, but the threat as well. It's all going to depend on Sabathia and then Burnett. I think Sabathia can get the job done, I'm not so sure about Burnett.
Someone feels AJ Burnett is not dependable, shocker.
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
But, the Yankees will be hitting the ball out of the ballpark, especially in Yankee Stadium. It's a small ballpark. The Yankees are built for that park. They have a lot of fly ball hitters and power pitchers who strike out a lot of batters.
If it's a small ballpark, then, you know, everyone will be hitting the ball out of the ballpark.
Z (LA)
Do you think the Dodgers pitching is strong enough to hold the Phillies line-up at bay, like they did the Cardinals line-up and move on to the world series?
To be fair, the Cardinals' line-up is Pujols, Holliday, and a lot of crap. Torre let his pitchers attack Pujols only when the series was already comfortably in the Dodgers' hands. The Phillies' lineup is very different and much more dangerous. Rollins had an awful, awful year, and the bottom third of the lineup was generally pretty crappy, but Victorino-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez with the year he had? That's scary.
Joe Morgan
(11:28 AM)
I've said this from the beginning and I've said it for several years now -- every team in the playoffs can win the world championship.
This is the most amazing thing anyone has ever said.
It seems strange, but you only have to go 11-8 to win the championship. You only have to win 11 of 19 games and every team has probably done that at some time.
Yeah, but if a team went 11-8 over a certain stretch, and three of those eight losses were the first three games they played, they'd be out of the playoffs. It's not that simple.
I think the Dodgers can win, but at the same time, I think the Phillies will probably be favored. The home field gives the Dodgers an edge.
The Phillies will be favored but the Dodgers have an edge?
If I'm pressed, I think it will be the Phillies and Yankees in the World Series, but I can just as easily say that it could be the Angels and Dodgers.
I'm kind of amazed he gave an opinion on who would win something.
Albert (New Jersey)
When do you think the Phillies are going to use Pedro? Do you think he's going to have success against the Dodgers?
Joe Morgan
(11:29 AM)
I thought he pitched great. He pitched the Sunday Night game that we did in the regular season. I can't believe they left him in there to throw 120 or so pitches, but he pitched great. He didn't pitch well after that because he injured his neck.
First, this is written like a fifth grader's essay and it's bothering me. Secondly, "he pitched great because of that one game." Yeah. I actually know what game they're talking about, because I watched that game, and he was awesome. I guess I can understand why they left him in, because it was a 1-0 game and honestly who in that Philly bullpen do you trust to keep a one-run lead???, but I didn't think it was the best idea to leave a guy who was frail in his absolutely awesome years in for 130 pitches. Watching that game, I was like, "This is amazing. But he's gonna start hurting and not be able to pitch again on a regular basis after this." Oh hey guess who was right, I rule.
My God Pedro's 2000 was the most ridiculous thing.
But I think he can get through a lineup for 5-6 innings. I think they will use him.
No shit they were gonna use him. The Phillies needed as much starting pitching as they could get from anyone not named Cliff Lee.
Against a team like the Dodgers with a lot of young hitters, his changeup and knowledge of pitching, I think he pitches pretty well against the Dodgers.
Joe Morgan
(11:31 AM)
I think any time the game goes to the late innings to be decided, the Yankees have an advantage over the Angels because of their one-swing capability. And any times it goes to the late innings in the NL, I think the Dodgers have the advantage over the Phillies because of their bullpen and we don't know if Lidge is fully back yet.
If the Yankees had an advantage because of their "one-swing capability," so did the Phillies. They hit 224 HRs, that's the most in the NL. The team with the second-highest number of HRs, the Rockies, hit 190. Here are the 2009 HR totals from their 3-4-5-6 hitters: 31-45-36-34. That is scary. The 2009 Yankees and the HR totals from their 3-4-5-6 hitters, I am assuming that Matsui is 5 and Posada 6: 39-30-28-22. The Yankees had a better lineup 1-8, but the meat of the Philly order is about the scariest thing in baseball.
The 2009 Dodger bullpen > the 2009 Angel bullpen, though. That's an important difference. Not that the really good regular season bullpen showed up in the NLCS, though.
That ending was sort of anticlimactic (that's what she said!!!).
Joe Morgan
(11:05 AM)
One of the things we had talked about before these series started is that in a short series if you make any mistakes in closing out the games, you are not going to be able to win. If in a short series, if you give away one game, it usually means you are going to lose the series.
This is true, but you know what's more true? Having bad starting pitching give away games.
In the series, the closers of the losing teams could not close out the series and in the case of one team, a mistake of an outfielder helped them not be able to close out the game.
Yeah, but there were still two out and just one guy on base. If Franklin strikes out the next guy, no one ever talks about that missed catch ever again.
In a longer series, you have a little more room for error for closing the series out. But in a shorter one, it's harder to regain your balance if you blow a save. St. Louis should have been going home 1-1, Minnesota should have been going home 1-1, Boston should have been 2-1,
1-2...
Colorado should have been 2-2 going back to Philadelphia. A lot of times it's not just the closers, it's the defensive play as well.
Yeah. And sometimes it's the starting pitching. And sometimes it's the offense not showing up. Watching the playoffs become Survivor: MLB Closers was fun this year, because Mo was the last one standing at the end. But it was a flukey thing that hadn't ever happened before and probably won't happen again for a really long time.
Joe Morgan
(11:06 AM)
In the case of the Twins, they made a lot of base running mistakes also.
*is Nick Punto* *runs around like a moron*
I'm SO glad the Yankees caught him off of third because if he'd scored we would have heard so much Punto ball-gargling about what a daring, gritty player he is.
Tony (Rochester, NY)
Mr. Hall of Fame Joe Morgan,
that just makes me LOL.
what do you think the dodgers need to do if they are able to turn the tide and advance to the world series by beating philly?
Joe Morgan
(11:07 AM)
Well, the Dodgers need to play as they did against the Cardinals.
The Dodgers need to play like they did in the series that they won. Again, brilliant.
The Cardinals were the favorite, but they were not intimidated. This year, they'll play the first game at home, whereas last year it was played in Philly. The Dodgers are on a roll right now and I wouldn't put it past them to beat the Phillies. But the Phillies' power is still going to be a key element to this series.
Right. And so is the Dodgers' pitching. It was pretty exciting going into this series, because it was the classic battle of pitching vs. power. Except it wasn't close and the Dodgers' pitching totally shit the bed. Boooooo.
tom* (parkville, md)
Did you ever play in a postseason game where it snowed?
What the...?
Joe Morgan
(11:09 AM)
The very first Sunday Night game was played in Cincinnati against the Yankees and that would have been in 1976, I think. I think it had maybe snowed a little bit that morning, but it was a night game and it was just cold and not snowing. The answer is probably no. I've played in days where it snowed, but not games where it snowed. The very first game I played in Cincinnati after I was traded, it snowed and I thought the game had been cancelled. Pete Rose called me and said get to the ballpark. I was from California and wasn't used to playing baseball after it had snowed.
OH MY GOD NO ONE CARES
Chris (Boston)
Do the Yanks have the pitching to keep the Angels off the bases and keep them from scoring runs?
Call it a hunch, but I really think the Angels were gonna score at least one run in a four-game series at minimum.
Joe Morgan
(11:12 AM)
I don't think anybody can shut the Angels down completely.
They got shut out 6 times this year. That's a pretty damn good number, but yeah, I guess those 6 guys, whoever they were, can shut them down completely.
They have a couple of very good hitters, guys right around .300. They also will work some walks other than Vlad. I don't think they'll keep them off the bases.
Well - yeah. You'd have to throw a perfect game to keep them off the bases entirely. That hasn't happened in the postseason since 1956.
Once they get on base, they'll try to take advantage of the Yankees starters, by disrupting them by stealing bases. The Yankees' power will be very important to the Yankees.
Redundancy department of redundancy. Also, whaaa, how did he go from talking about the Angels stealing bases to the Yankees hitting a lot of home runs? Stay on topic!!!
They'll have to hit it out of the park to beat the Angels. The Twins had to work hard to score runs
That more speaks to the fact that the Yankees got very very good pitching during the ALDS, but okay
and then the Yankees would offset that with one swing of the bat. Can the Angels pitchers keep the Yankees hitters from dominating with their power like they did against the Twins? My answer is, I think they will. I think this will be a good series. It will be a good example of how there is more than one way to play the game. The Yankees will play with power and the Angels with speed and fundamentals.
The "fundamentals" thing is especially funny in retrospect, but yeah, the Yankees weren't gonna play with fundamentals. When they got a hit, they were gonna run out of the box and try going to third instead of first. If the batter hit a ground ball to Derek with nobody on, he would just throw it into the outfield. When it came to catching pop-ups, Derek and Cano would just say "no, you get it" while it dropped between them (heh, the Angels actually did that). Pitching? Eh, CC and Mariano were just gonna roll the ball toward the batter's box and hope it got there and the hitters would swing at it. The Yankees care not for these "fundamentals." They would, however, hit a home run every time they were up, because they play with "power."
Adam (Philadelphia)
Do you think the Phillies can still win if Cole Hamels continues to struggle?
Joe Morgan
(11:14 AM)
Yes. In a seven game series, I think they can. They have enough power and good hitting to offset some inadequacies that they have with their starting pitching.
But! I THOUGHT YOU DIDN'T SCORE RUNS IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!
The Phillies are a very interesting team to me. Harry Kalas, their former annoucner and my close friend, always called them the Fightin' Phils. They fight to the end. I think they're a very interesting team because of that. You don't know what you're going to get, but they always fight hard to the end.
What the hell? This is just weird. He writes like a fifth grader, I swear.
Joe Morgan
(11:15 AM)
A great example is that we always talk about the strikeouts that Ryan Howard has, but he was in the spotlight last night tying up the game. He didn't strikeout. You just never know what you're going to get other than great effort.
???? Ryan Howard strikes out a lot, yes. He's also a really scary hitter who hits with a ton of power. He hit the most home runs in all of baseball in 2006 (58!!!) and 2008 and was only two behind the leader this year. RBI are dumb, but he's driven in, since 2006, 149, 136, 146, and 141 runs. Those totals of 149 in 2006, 146 in 2008, and 141 in 2009 led baseball. People talk about that wayyyy more than his strikeouts.
Shane (Knoxville)
Joe, honestly... if you were the manager of the Phillies, would you have had the confidence to go with Lidge those last two games?
Joe Morgan
(11:17 AM)
I said this at the beginning of the postseason - the only way the Phillies can win the championship and repeat is if Lidge is closing the games. You can't do it with someone knew to the situation.
First things first, hahaha, "knew" just makes me laugh. Secondly, and more importantly, sure you can. The 1998 Yankees went into the playoffs with Mariano Rivera as their closer. Yeah, he'd done well in 1996 as a setup man, but he blew a save in the 1997 ALDS that basically took the Yankees out of it. He wasn't necessarily "proven." Guess what? He totally ruled those playoffs. Jonathan Papelbon had never been to the postseason before 2007, and he was great during the Red Sox's run. Lidge had struggled before 2008 in the postseason, but he was awesome in 2008.
Lidge has proven that he can do it in the past.
And he's proven that he can serve up walk-off home runs to guys with no home runs all year.
My answer is yes, because that's the only way they can do it. You can't win the championship without an established closer.
Closers on WS-winning teams since 1995 -
1995: Mark Wohlers
1996: John Wetteland
1997: Robb Nen
1998: Mariano Rivera
1999: Mariano Rivera
2000: Mariano Rivera
2001: Byung-Hyun Kim
2002: Troy Percival
2003: Ugueth Urbina
2004: Keith Foulke
2005: Bobby Jenks
2006: Adam Wainwright
2007: Jonathan Papelbon
2008: Brad Lidge
2009: Mariano Rivera
Despite the fact that I think most relief pitchers are pretty much interchangeable, I'm also one of those people that think the Yankees might not have had that three-year run without Mo. So having a truly elite closer can help. But Nen? Kim? Urbina? Guys who were, at the time, unproven, like Wohlers, Wetteland (totally sucked in the 1995 playoffs), Percival, Jenks, Wainwright, and Papelbon? Mariano Rivera could have had the ability to pitch like that as a reliever in the postseason throughout his career, but if he'd been signed by the Pirates and been forced to be a starter because they didn't have anyone else to pitch, we would never know how amazing he is.
It shows you how great Mariano Rivera is and has been throughout his career.
Well we can agree on that. Yay.
Joe Morgan
(11:17 AM)
He's been unbelievable as far as closing out games in the postseason. But I think Lidge is very capable of getting the job done in the postseason.
Wait, huh, who? I guess he was talking about Mo in that first "he" there. I assumed Lidge and got really confused.
I don't know if everyone noticed, but Charlie Manuel did something great in the first game in Colorado. He went out to Lidge and was very emphatically telling Lidge that he wants him to go out there and throw the ball hard and we'll see what happens.
The manager told his pitcher to throw the ball hard. Wow.
Lidge got out of the jam throwing all fastballs. I think we'll see him be very aggressive.
Noooo, I think most closers are generally scared of various hitters and nibble. Algjaldjg. (please note that this may be true for Jonathan Broxton and Matt Fucking Stairs.)
Eric (Rhode ISland)
Do you think the Red Sox would have beaten LA if Varitek was behind the plate? He's such a great game caller, certainly he would have helped.
Eeeeeek. Boston's biggest problem in this series wasn't pitching, minus Papelbon's explosion. It was the offense. The Red Sox scored a total of seven runs in three games, with six of those runs coming in the one game they played at Fenway. V-Mart had a rather pathetic .432 OPS in the series, but hey, he actually had 2 RBIs. That's over a quarter of Boston's runs. I don't think Varitek would have helped there.
Joe Morgan
(11:22 AM)
I don't agree.
Oh thank God.
I think Varitek obviously has been good at calling pitches over the years,
Fastball fastball fastball fastball fastball fastball.
but what I saw down the stretch is he wasn't as good defensively blocking pitches.
Aaaand he can't throw anyone out (neither can V-Mart, but V-Mart can hit).
Offensively, he wasn't going to add anything. I'm one of these people who believe pitchers, the good pitchers, call their own games. I've seen Lester call Varitek off. I've seen Beckett do the same thing. I don't think he could have made a difference in that series. I saw Burnett pitch a one-hitter against the Red Sox in seven innings in August as he matched up against Beckett and Posada was catching. The next time he gave up some home runs and it was Posada's fault. I just think that a catcher makes a difference if he's a great defensive catcher, but in this case, the pitchers pitched well up to a point. I don't think it would have made any difference.
This............. totally makes sense. Oh my God. I don't even know what to say. I'm gonna pass out.
Ken (Atlanta)
I like how you point out that the Angles will beat the yankees with speed, although the yankees have a better stolen base percentage, the Angles do have 37 more stolen bases and will keep posada busy. Who takes the series?
I'm not sure if this is Joe-baiting. ANGLES! Lolz. And the Yankees suck for not running into more outs, they should do that more often!
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
It's hard for me to pick a winner until I see them start to play.
Cop-out!!!!!
The other thing about a lot of stolen base attempts - you keep the infielders jumpy on defense and you stay in the pitcher's mind. It changes the pitch calling. You won't see a lot of changeups. The catcher has to call something hard like a fastball or slider. That will change how they pitch in certain situations. It's not just the stolen base, but the threat as well. It's all going to depend on Sabathia and then Burnett. I think Sabathia can get the job done, I'm not so sure about Burnett.
Someone feels AJ Burnett is not dependable, shocker.
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
But, the Yankees will be hitting the ball out of the ballpark, especially in Yankee Stadium. It's a small ballpark. The Yankees are built for that park. They have a lot of fly ball hitters and power pitchers who strike out a lot of batters.
If it's a small ballpark, then, you know, everyone will be hitting the ball out of the ballpark.
Z (LA)
Do you think the Dodgers pitching is strong enough to hold the Phillies line-up at bay, like they did the Cardinals line-up and move on to the world series?
To be fair, the Cardinals' line-up is Pujols, Holliday, and a lot of crap. Torre let his pitchers attack Pujols only when the series was already comfortably in the Dodgers' hands. The Phillies' lineup is very different and much more dangerous. Rollins had an awful, awful year, and the bottom third of the lineup was generally pretty crappy, but Victorino-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez with the year he had? That's scary.
Joe Morgan
(11:28 AM)
I've said this from the beginning and I've said it for several years now -- every team in the playoffs can win the world championship.
This is the most amazing thing anyone has ever said.
It seems strange, but you only have to go 11-8 to win the championship. You only have to win 11 of 19 games and every team has probably done that at some time.
Yeah, but if a team went 11-8 over a certain stretch, and three of those eight losses were the first three games they played, they'd be out of the playoffs. It's not that simple.
I think the Dodgers can win, but at the same time, I think the Phillies will probably be favored. The home field gives the Dodgers an edge.
The Phillies will be favored but the Dodgers have an edge?
If I'm pressed, I think it will be the Phillies and Yankees in the World Series, but I can just as easily say that it could be the Angels and Dodgers.
I'm kind of amazed he gave an opinion on who would win something.
Albert (New Jersey)
When do you think the Phillies are going to use Pedro? Do you think he's going to have success against the Dodgers?
Joe Morgan
(11:29 AM)
I thought he pitched great. He pitched the Sunday Night game that we did in the regular season. I can't believe they left him in there to throw 120 or so pitches, but he pitched great. He didn't pitch well after that because he injured his neck.
First, this is written like a fifth grader's essay and it's bothering me. Secondly, "he pitched great because of that one game." Yeah. I actually know what game they're talking about, because I watched that game, and he was awesome. I guess I can understand why they left him in, because it was a 1-0 game and honestly who in that Philly bullpen do you trust to keep a one-run lead???, but I didn't think it was the best idea to leave a guy who was frail in his absolutely awesome years in for 130 pitches. Watching that game, I was like, "This is amazing. But he's gonna start hurting and not be able to pitch again on a regular basis after this." Oh hey guess who was right, I rule.
My God Pedro's 2000 was the most ridiculous thing.
But I think he can get through a lineup for 5-6 innings. I think they will use him.
No shit they were gonna use him. The Phillies needed as much starting pitching as they could get from anyone not named Cliff Lee.
Against a team like the Dodgers with a lot of young hitters, his changeup and knowledge of pitching, I think he pitches pretty well against the Dodgers.
Joe Morgan
(11:31 AM)
I think any time the game goes to the late innings to be decided, the Yankees have an advantage over the Angels because of their one-swing capability. And any times it goes to the late innings in the NL, I think the Dodgers have the advantage over the Phillies because of their bullpen and we don't know if Lidge is fully back yet.
If the Yankees had an advantage because of their "one-swing capability," so did the Phillies. They hit 224 HRs, that's the most in the NL. The team with the second-highest number of HRs, the Rockies, hit 190. Here are the 2009 HR totals from their 3-4-5-6 hitters: 31-45-36-34. That is scary. The 2009 Yankees and the HR totals from their 3-4-5-6 hitters, I am assuming that Matsui is 5 and Posada 6: 39-30-28-22. The Yankees had a better lineup 1-8, but the meat of the Philly order is about the scariest thing in baseball.
The 2009 Dodger bullpen > the 2009 Angel bullpen, though. That's an important difference. Not that the really good regular season bullpen showed up in the NLCS, though.
That ending was sort of anticlimactic (that's what she said!!!).
uhhhhh
Please remind me not to confuse Bill Mazeroski and Carl Yazstremskiithinkispelledthatwrong ever again. They are indeed very different players. And you think, as a Yankee fan, I'd know who Mazeroski was. Yeah.
now I REALLY think I'm Fire Joe Morgan
Because I've decided to FJM all the FJM chats from the playoffs, God help me. I've skipped some things here and there that I couldn't really make fun of.
Buzzmaster
(11:02 AM)
Joe is here!
OMG YAY
Joe Morgan
(11:03 AM)
I'm surprised that the Tigers were not able to close it out, because I figured that Minnesota would lose to Greinke once and that they would lost a game or two to Chicago.
[sic] Also, it's not really a great vote of confidence for the Tigers that you thought they were gonna lose their series but still beat Minnesota because Minnesota would lose too.
But that's why baseball is such a great sport, you never know what's going to happen.
You just can't predict baseball, Suzyn!
Chris (New Jersey)
As a Yankees fan, who do I want to play in the Division series?
Probably neither, Chris. You're not a major league baseball player.
Joe Morgan
(11:04 AM)
I would say Minnesota. They don't have a dominant starter like Justin Verlander. They beat the Twins 7 straight games this year, but they were 5-1 against Detroit as well. So, it shouldn't really matter if you're a Yankees fan. They are clearly the better team.
I actually agree with... all of this. Wow. Though Minnesota/Detroit fans might get offended. And the Yankees won all seven games they played against Cleveland in 2007, and it didn't get them out of the first round against them.
Bryan (Ohio)
Hey Joe, who do you think wins the Tigers/Twins game today?
Joe Morgan
(11:06 AM)
You can almost flip a coin. I know they're playing in Minnesota so they'll have the crowd and the homefield advantage. But I've seen the situation where the road team has won these playoffs before. I was involved in one in 1980 in Los Angeles. I was with the Astros and the Dodgers beat us three straight to end the season and tie for the division championship. We won on Monday and we won by a big margin. It wasn't a close game. But what it did do, it cost us Joe Neikro, our ace at the time. He had to pitch the tiebreaker game and wasn't available for the first game of the playoffs.
AAAAGH JOE NO ONE CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU THIS ONE TIME ALMOST 30 YEARS AGO.
As for the home field advantage thing, hmmm. I can distinctly remember, off the top of my head, one pretty memorable one-game playoff won by the team without homefield advantage. Of course, you know, Joe should really LOOK THIS UP, it's not that hard. So, I looked for all the one-game playoffs prior to 2009. A star indicates that the team with homefield advantage won.
1948: Cleveland beats Boston at Fenway
1978: Bucky Fucking Dent
1980: Astros beat Dodgers at Dodger Stadium
1995: Mariners beat Angels at Seattle*
1998: Cubs beat Giants at Wrigley*
1999: Mets beat Reds at Cinergy Field
2007: Rockies beat Padres at Coors*
2008: White Sox beat Twins in Chicago*
So it's really kind of a toss-up, though I don't see how the 1999 Mets beating the 1999 Reds at home says anything at all about the 2009 Tigers beating the 2009 Twins.
Joe Morgan
(11:06 AM)
It's anybody's game today. The Tigers could get hot and score a lot of runs early. I think that's their chance of winning.
The Tigers could win if they score a lot of runs early on. That's brilliant.
If it's a close game, I think the edge goes to the Twins.
You could offer, like, reasons for this.
Matt (Buffalo)
Hey Joe, what is your take on the Boston-Anaheim series? More Red Sox dominance against the Angels in the playoffs this year?
Joe Morgan
(11:07 AM)
If you just look at the teams, I think the Angels are the most fundamentally sound, well-rounded of the two teams. They run the bases well, they play good defense, they have good pitching.
And the Red Sox run the bases like chickens without their heads, play shitty defense, and have awful pitching. I have no idea how they got into the playoffs, really.
But they don't have the power that Boston has and that seems to be their downfall, especially in Fenway.
Excluding 2009 (because it hadn't happened at the time of this writing), since and including 2004, the Angels were a pathetic 1-9 against Boston in the playoffs. But the one game they won over those three series (seriously, Angels, shoot yourselves. Except 2009 was awesome.) was at Fenway. The Angels played really badly against the Red Sox no matter where they were playing.
But I think the Angels are better prepared to beat Boston than they have in the past. Beckett is not as dominant as he was before. Lester is the key.
Hearing people doubt Beckett warms the cockles of my heart.
Joe Morgan
(11:08 AM)
If Anaheim is to win the series, they will have to win the first game. It's a tough series to pick.
They don't HAVE to. I understand what he's saying about making a statement or whatever. But it's not a one-game playoff.
Otto (CA)
Hello Joe. Do you think Varitek should get benched for the playoffs? Does he still have anything left? Thanks.
Otto, I'll answer this for you: yes, no. Okay, moving on. Oh crap, we actually have to pay attention to Joe answering the question...
Joe Morgan
(11:10 AM)
Yeah, what he has left is some leadership.
Sad trombone
I don't think they will bench him completely for the playoffs, but I think he will probably catch Beckett as he has done in the past. That may be his only start in this first round series. Victor Martinez is one of the best hitters in the game
He's a very good hitter, though I wouldn't go this far. He is, however, at this point in their careers, a much, much, much, much, much, much, much better hitter than Jason Varitek.
and when you play Varitek, you're taking Mike Lowell's bat out of the game.
Huh? Oh, I guess Joe is assuming they'd play Martinez at first and Youkilis at third.
That's the decision that Francona has to make. The leadership of Varitek or the bat of Mike Lowell.
I really wish Francona would pick "the leadership of Varitek" more often, but unfortunately he is not a moron.
pookie (Arvada, CO)
Does the country outside of the Rocky Mountain Time Zone appreciate how good the Rockies are defensively? Don't you agree that they catch the ball as well as anyone in the big leagues, and couldn't that prove to be the difference as they face pretty evenly-matched teams through the NL playoffs?
This just makes me laugh. "they catch the ball as well as anyone in the big leagues" kinda means they're not particularly better than anyone else at catching the ball. And... like... what does this question even mean? I guess that they play good defense, which is indeed very important.
Joe Morgan
(11:13 AM)
I agree with everything you say. They are not as well respected defensively outside of Colorado. But to know how well a team is defensively, you have to see them on a daily basis,
I didn't watch the 2009 Mets every game. But I knew they were terrible defensively. And no, not because Luis Castillo dropped a game-ending pop up that one time.
you don't make game saving plays every day.
Game-saving plays are generally fluke things that don't really help you determine if a team plays solid defense in general.
Defense can change series, but their problem will be can they slug with a Philadelphia team in Philly and in Coors Field. Both teams are good, so I think it will come down to pitching. Can Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee handle Colorado's offense.
Boy, you sound really enthusiastic there, Joe.
But the same goes for De La Rosa, Jimenez and all of the Rockies pitchers trying to hold Philadelphia.
Jerome (CA)
Do Joe Torre play Juan Pierre in the playoffs? The Dodges werent the same when Manny come back. They missed Pierre's small ball.
[sic]
Juan Pierre, 2009: .308/.365/.392/.757, 105 OPS+
Manny, 2009: .290/.418/.531/.949, 155 OPS+
Keep in mind, everyone kept talking about how this was a bad year for Manny. Okay, you want to look at how he did after the suspension? .269/.389/.491/.881. That's not ludicrous, it's merely really really good. AND STILL BETTER THAN JUAN PIERRE.
Joe Morgan
(11:14 AM)
It's not just the small ball that they missed. It's the energy that he brings every day and the threat that he brings as far as running the bases and stealing bases.
You know what's a much bigger "threat" than Juan Pierre? Manny and his .531 SLG.
No, I don't think Torre uses Pierre more. He made it clear that when Manny came back that he was his left fielder and Pierre was his extra man. I don't know if that will change, however, I did see Pierre playing down the stretch when they were trying to clinch. You never know what Torre's going to do,
This is true. Putting in Weaver instead of Mo in an extra-innings game. Batting A-Rod eighth. Using Enrique Wilson in an elimination game. Writing a book smearing the Yankees after he made a career out of being classy. Guy is crazy.
but I dont' see him taking Manny out of the lineup.
Well we agree on that.
Jeff (Tigers fan in Boston)
That must be annoying. :(
I am extremely confident in Rick Porcello today. If he helps pull out the win for Detroit, he's gotta be the rookie of the year, right?
Joe Morgan
(11:16 AM)
If he can win this game today, he would get my vote.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure the voting had to be in by the game before. So... just general cluelessness.
This is a tough game for a rookie to win on the road. That's why I think that Detroit will have to score a lot of runs and score them early. As long as the game stays close, the deeper it gets into the game, the more it helps Minnesota.
Okay, Morgan just said that Porcello had to win the game, and according to him, the key to winning the game for Porcello is... his team scoring runs, something he has no control over.
Steve (Middletown, CT)
Who is your NL CY Young winner?
Joe Morgan
(11:17 AM)
I would give it to Wainwright, but there are a lot of people that believe that Carpenter deserves it. Wainwright pitched more innings, he was there the whole year. Carpenter had the injury. Wainwright led the league in wins and had more innings than Lincecum and Carpenter.
Okay. This makes sense. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes, I guess. I would have gone for Carpenter, but Lincecum and Wainwright were very good choices, too.
ERA and strikeouts don't impress me as much as wins do.
WHAT??!?!?!?
The name of the game is to win.
Well actually the name of the game is "baseball" but sure. But don't you understand there's a difference between TEAM WINS and PITCHER WINS?!
Daniel (Raleigh)
Who is the best option for the Phils to be using in the 9th?
Joe Morgan
(11:18 AM)
I think in order for Philadelphia to defend their championship, Brad Lidge will have to be the closer and will have to do a good job. If he doesn't do a good job, they can't win. But trying to put Madsen in that role or anyone else in that role, I don't think it will work for Philadelphia. I think Lidge has to lead them in the bullpen.
So in conclusion, there are no other options than Lidge, and if Lidge doesn't do well in save situations, Philly won't win. Yeah. That's... not totally obvious (other than the "there are no other options than Lidge" thing).
Joe Morgan
(11:19 AM)
They can not afford to have a blown save, especially in the first round because it's such a short series.
I generally agree with this, especially when you consider the 2009 postseason. But I mean, it's possible. The 2001 Diamondbacks, 2003 Marlins, and 2005 White Sox, off the top of my head, won the World Series when their closer blew a save during the World Series. For the 2009 Yankees, well Mariano didn't blow any saves, but technically, Joba and Hughes did. They still won it all.
Bonnie (Newberry, Mass.)
Do the Saux have any of that playoff spark left in them for the upcoming playoffs as they did in 2004, Mr. Morgan?
I am obsessed with the fact that she called them the "Saux" and then called him "Mr. Morgan." It's like she's some little French schoolgirl or something. Also oh God, the 2004 Red Sox are gonna be like the 1986 Mets in that fans of their team never shut. up. about them, aren't they? I know this is made worse being on the East coast but do you hear Tigers fans going on about how the 1984 Tigers were the bestest team ever? Blue Jays fans, obsessing about the 1992 and 1993 teams?
Joe Morgan
(11:24 AM)
I think this is a little different team as far as the spark you're talking about.
There's a lot fewer "protein shakes" for David Ortiz this time around, is what he means.
But I do know they've been able to beat the Angels in the playoffs, so that should give them some confidence. They've started in Anaheim before and still been able to win. I think the Angels have to win the first game, to send the message that this will be different than the last few times. But Beckett is not the same dominant pitcher he was before.
(fistpump)
And we still have to see Lester in the postseason, see if he can assume Beckett's role as being the dominant ace in the playoffs.
I know it was a SSS (36 innings), but Lester had a 2.25 ERA in the postseason prior to 2009. He didn't pitch the greatest game of all time during it, but, I mean, he pitched and won a clinching game of the World Freaking Series. Also, just for fun:
Beckett, 2008 postseason: 3 G, 14.1 IP (less than 5 IP/game), 8.79 ERA, 1.194 OPS against, 7 HR
Lester, 2008 postseason: 4 G, 26.2 IP (between 6.1 IP and 6.2 IP/game), 2.36 ERA, .612 OPS against, 3 HR
Yeahhh, Lester hasn't proven himself yet. Somehow Beckett was 1-0 and Lester, 1-2, over the course of that postseason, though. And the sponsorship of Lester's page on Baseball Reference is hilariously overblown, by the way. I'm about as big a fan of him as I can possibly be, considering he's a Red Sox player and I'm a Yankee fan. But yikes, calm yo'self.
Jon (Cleveland)
Joe, Do you think the Yankees do enough of the little things (stolen bases, advancing runners) to make it through the playoffs? Mashers are great for the regular season, but everyone knows playoff games come down to small ball. Thanks!
I can't tell if this is JoeBaiting or not. I think it is, but I'm not sure.
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
You're no longer gonig to be facing fourth and fifth starters where you can beef up your stats. You're going to be facing good pitching.
The Yankees led baseball in pretty much every offensive category. They were a ridiculous powerhouse. I know in the playoffs you're generally gonna face better pitching, but it makes sense that, you know who would probably be able to hit better pitching the best? The best offense.
But I think the Yankees can handle it.
WELL THANK GOD
They are a veteran group of guys. They are capable of doing the small things needed to win, in addition to hitting the ball out of the ball park. So, yes, I do think they can do the small things needed to win.
Thanks for the vote of confidence, Joe!
Chris (New Jersey)
How do you think the National League playoffs will go?
Joe Morgan
(11:28 AM)
I think the NL is going to be the more interesting of the playoffs, because all of the teams are so evenly matched.
And how are the AL teams... like... not evenly matched?
The Rockies were playing well down the stretch, the Cardinals did not.
In September and October:
Rockies 20-11
Cardinals 14-17
Okay, Joe has a point.
The Phillies played OK down the stretch, the Dodgers did not.
Phillies 18-16
Dodgers 17-13
I remember both these teams like, being one game away from clinching and not doing it for a few games and actually giving their fans some heart attacks about that. But that's a pretty similar level of playing.
But none of this really means anything. I'm gonna use some Yankee-centric examples so forgive me, but they're all I can think of off the top of my head and I don't want to do a study. The 1998 Yankees came into the playoffs having won seven games in a row - they looked awesome - and won the whole thing. The 2000 Yankees came into the playoffs having lost seven games in a row and something like fifteen of eighteen - they looked awful - and won the whole thing. Andy Pettitte had given up like ten runs in an inning in his last start. That's some bad. I don't even want to know what the comments on the internet would have been like around that time. But anyway, playing so horribly down the stretch didn't make the Yankees panic and suck. "Momentum" is basically bullshit.
Anything can change every day. That's what makes baseball such a great sport. I actually felt the Cardinals were the best team three weeks ago, but by the end of the season, I wasn't sure. They do have Carpenter and Wainwright, who are probably the two most dominant pitchers this year.
You haven't been watching Greinke, have you?
Hamels and Lee at their best can matchup with anyone.
But... but... but... Carpenter and Wainwright!!! Also, let's face it, this year was not Hamels' best, at all. Ever, really.
Realistically, I think it will be the Cardinals and Phillies for the NLCS, because of their starting pitching. All of the teams that are left can score runs.
Yeah, you know, it'd be kinda weird if a team made the playoffs while scoring a total of 0 runs all season.
The Dodgers are probably the weakest as far as power and run scoring ability of the group.
Total runs scored/allowed and their rank in the NL:
Colorado 804/715, #2/#6
St. Louis 730/640, #7/#2
Philly 820/709, #1/#5
Los Angeles 780/611, #4/#1 (tied with Giants)
Technically, they're the second-weakest in terms of runs, but that's still a pretty potent team. But they're also the best at preventing runs, as you can see. They had the lowest ERA in all of baseball, with a very sexy 3.41 along with a 1.25 WHIP. Opponents were OPSing .673 against their pitching. Sure, they played in the NL West, but those numbers are still outstanding. IIRC, they had the best run differential, too.
But in the playoffs, you usually don't score a lot of runs anyway.
Scores from the games in the 2008 playoffs.
ALDS1 (Red Sox/Angels): 4-1, 7-5, 5-4, 3-2
ALDS2 (Rays/White Sox): 6-4, 6-2, 5-3, 6-2
NLDS1 (Dodgers/Cubs): 7-2, 10-3, 3-1
NLDS2 (Phillies/Brewers): 3-1, 5-2, 4-1, 6-2
ALCS: 2-0, 9-8, 9-1, 13-4, 8-7, 4-2, 3-1
NLCS: 3-2, 8-5, 7-2, 7-5, 5-1
World Series: 3-2, 4-2, 5-4, 10-2, 4-3
I guess a majority of these games are generally closer than you'd see in the non-playoffs, when, you know, really really really good teams are sometimes playing really really really crappy teams. There are generally variations in quality between playoff teams, but it's not like the 2009 Yankees would be taking on the 2009 Royals (minus Greinke) there or something. But I mean, at least once in every one of those series, a team scored 6 runs in at least one game. That would count as "a lot" for me.
Just for fun times and because the Yankees won and that was a lot of fun so let's all relive it, the 2009 playoffs.
ALDS1 (Yankees/Twins): 7-2, 4-3, 4-1
ALDS2 (Angels/Red Sox): 5-0, 4-1, 7-6
NLDS1 (Dodgers/Cardinals): 5-3, 3-2, 5-1
NLDS2 (Phillies/Rockies): 5-1, 5-4, 6-5, 5-4
ALCS: 4-1, 4-3, 5-4, 10-1, 7-6, 5-2
NLCS: 8-6, 2-1, 11-0, 5-4, 10-4
World Series: 6-1, 3-1, 8-5, 7-4, 8-6, 7-3
Those NLCS numbers minus the 2-1 game, yikes. And the World Series was a slugfest at times.
Joe Morgan
(11:29 AM)
I think we'll have a great postseason this year. Remember, as I said before, any team that gets into the playoffs can win the world championship.
Brilliant. Genius, Joe. Absolutely genius.
Buzzmaster
(11:02 AM)
Joe is here!
OMG YAY
Joe Morgan
(11:03 AM)
I'm surprised that the Tigers were not able to close it out, because I figured that Minnesota would lose to Greinke once and that they would lost a game or two to Chicago.
[sic] Also, it's not really a great vote of confidence for the Tigers that you thought they were gonna lose their series but still beat Minnesota because Minnesota would lose too.
But that's why baseball is such a great sport, you never know what's going to happen.
You just can't predict baseball, Suzyn!
Chris (New Jersey)
As a Yankees fan, who do I want to play in the Division series?
Probably neither, Chris. You're not a major league baseball player.
Joe Morgan
(11:04 AM)
I would say Minnesota. They don't have a dominant starter like Justin Verlander. They beat the Twins 7 straight games this year, but they were 5-1 against Detroit as well. So, it shouldn't really matter if you're a Yankees fan. They are clearly the better team.
I actually agree with... all of this. Wow. Though Minnesota/Detroit fans might get offended. And the Yankees won all seven games they played against Cleveland in 2007, and it didn't get them out of the first round against them.
Bryan (Ohio)
Hey Joe, who do you think wins the Tigers/Twins game today?
Joe Morgan
(11:06 AM)
You can almost flip a coin. I know they're playing in Minnesota so they'll have the crowd and the homefield advantage. But I've seen the situation where the road team has won these playoffs before. I was involved in one in 1980 in Los Angeles. I was with the Astros and the Dodgers beat us three straight to end the season and tie for the division championship. We won on Monday and we won by a big margin. It wasn't a close game. But what it did do, it cost us Joe Neikro, our ace at the time. He had to pitch the tiebreaker game and wasn't available for the first game of the playoffs.
AAAAGH JOE NO ONE CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU THIS ONE TIME ALMOST 30 YEARS AGO.
As for the home field advantage thing, hmmm. I can distinctly remember, off the top of my head, one pretty memorable one-game playoff won by the team without homefield advantage. Of course, you know, Joe should really LOOK THIS UP, it's not that hard. So, I looked for all the one-game playoffs prior to 2009. A star indicates that the team with homefield advantage won.
1948: Cleveland beats Boston at Fenway
1978: Bucky Fucking Dent
1980: Astros beat Dodgers at Dodger Stadium
1995: Mariners beat Angels at Seattle*
1998: Cubs beat Giants at Wrigley*
1999: Mets beat Reds at Cinergy Field
2007: Rockies beat Padres at Coors*
2008: White Sox beat Twins in Chicago*
So it's really kind of a toss-up, though I don't see how the 1999 Mets beating the 1999 Reds at home says anything at all about the 2009 Tigers beating the 2009 Twins.
Joe Morgan
(11:06 AM)
It's anybody's game today. The Tigers could get hot and score a lot of runs early. I think that's their chance of winning.
The Tigers could win if they score a lot of runs early on. That's brilliant.
If it's a close game, I think the edge goes to the Twins.
You could offer, like, reasons for this.
Matt (Buffalo)
Hey Joe, what is your take on the Boston-Anaheim series? More Red Sox dominance against the Angels in the playoffs this year?
Joe Morgan
(11:07 AM)
If you just look at the teams, I think the Angels are the most fundamentally sound, well-rounded of the two teams. They run the bases well, they play good defense, they have good pitching.
And the Red Sox run the bases like chickens without their heads, play shitty defense, and have awful pitching. I have no idea how they got into the playoffs, really.
But they don't have the power that Boston has and that seems to be their downfall, especially in Fenway.
Excluding 2009 (because it hadn't happened at the time of this writing), since and including 2004, the Angels were a pathetic 1-9 against Boston in the playoffs. But the one game they won over those three series (seriously, Angels, shoot yourselves. Except 2009 was awesome.) was at Fenway. The Angels played really badly against the Red Sox no matter where they were playing.
But I think the Angels are better prepared to beat Boston than they have in the past. Beckett is not as dominant as he was before. Lester is the key.
Hearing people doubt Beckett warms the cockles of my heart.
Joe Morgan
(11:08 AM)
If Anaheim is to win the series, they will have to win the first game. It's a tough series to pick.
They don't HAVE to. I understand what he's saying about making a statement or whatever. But it's not a one-game playoff.
Otto (CA)
Hello Joe. Do you think Varitek should get benched for the playoffs? Does he still have anything left? Thanks.
Otto, I'll answer this for you: yes, no. Okay, moving on. Oh crap, we actually have to pay attention to Joe answering the question...
Joe Morgan
(11:10 AM)
Yeah, what he has left is some leadership.
Sad trombone
I don't think they will bench him completely for the playoffs, but I think he will probably catch Beckett as he has done in the past. That may be his only start in this first round series. Victor Martinez is one of the best hitters in the game
He's a very good hitter, though I wouldn't go this far. He is, however, at this point in their careers, a much, much, much, much, much, much, much better hitter than Jason Varitek.
and when you play Varitek, you're taking Mike Lowell's bat out of the game.
Huh? Oh, I guess Joe is assuming they'd play Martinez at first and Youkilis at third.
That's the decision that Francona has to make. The leadership of Varitek or the bat of Mike Lowell.
I really wish Francona would pick "the leadership of Varitek" more often, but unfortunately he is not a moron.
pookie (Arvada, CO)
Does the country outside of the Rocky Mountain Time Zone appreciate how good the Rockies are defensively? Don't you agree that they catch the ball as well as anyone in the big leagues, and couldn't that prove to be the difference as they face pretty evenly-matched teams through the NL playoffs?
This just makes me laugh. "they catch the ball as well as anyone in the big leagues" kinda means they're not particularly better than anyone else at catching the ball. And... like... what does this question even mean? I guess that they play good defense, which is indeed very important.
Joe Morgan
(11:13 AM)
I agree with everything you say. They are not as well respected defensively outside of Colorado. But to know how well a team is defensively, you have to see them on a daily basis,
I didn't watch the 2009 Mets every game. But I knew they were terrible defensively. And no, not because Luis Castillo dropped a game-ending pop up that one time.
you don't make game saving plays every day.
Game-saving plays are generally fluke things that don't really help you determine if a team plays solid defense in general.
Defense can change series, but their problem will be can they slug with a Philadelphia team in Philly and in Coors Field. Both teams are good, so I think it will come down to pitching. Can Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee handle Colorado's offense.
Boy, you sound really enthusiastic there, Joe.
But the same goes for De La Rosa, Jimenez and all of the Rockies pitchers trying to hold Philadelphia.
Jerome (CA)
Do Joe Torre play Juan Pierre in the playoffs? The Dodges werent the same when Manny come back. They missed Pierre's small ball.
[sic]
Juan Pierre, 2009: .308/.365/.392/.757, 105 OPS+
Manny, 2009: .290/.418/.531/.949, 155 OPS+
Keep in mind, everyone kept talking about how this was a bad year for Manny. Okay, you want to look at how he did after the suspension? .269/.389/.491/.881. That's not ludicrous, it's merely really really good. AND STILL BETTER THAN JUAN PIERRE.
Joe Morgan
(11:14 AM)
It's not just the small ball that they missed. It's the energy that he brings every day and the threat that he brings as far as running the bases and stealing bases.
You know what's a much bigger "threat" than Juan Pierre? Manny and his .531 SLG.
No, I don't think Torre uses Pierre more. He made it clear that when Manny came back that he was his left fielder and Pierre was his extra man. I don't know if that will change, however, I did see Pierre playing down the stretch when they were trying to clinch. You never know what Torre's going to do,
This is true. Putting in Weaver instead of Mo in an extra-innings game. Batting A-Rod eighth. Using Enrique Wilson in an elimination game. Writing a book smearing the Yankees after he made a career out of being classy. Guy is crazy.
but I dont' see him taking Manny out of the lineup.
Well we agree on that.
Jeff (Tigers fan in Boston)
That must be annoying. :(
I am extremely confident in Rick Porcello today. If he helps pull out the win for Detroit, he's gotta be the rookie of the year, right?
Joe Morgan
(11:16 AM)
If he can win this game today, he would get my vote.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure the voting had to be in by the game before. So... just general cluelessness.
This is a tough game for a rookie to win on the road. That's why I think that Detroit will have to score a lot of runs and score them early. As long as the game stays close, the deeper it gets into the game, the more it helps Minnesota.
Okay, Morgan just said that Porcello had to win the game, and according to him, the key to winning the game for Porcello is... his team scoring runs, something he has no control over.
Steve (Middletown, CT)
Who is your NL CY Young winner?
Joe Morgan
(11:17 AM)
I would give it to Wainwright, but there are a lot of people that believe that Carpenter deserves it. Wainwright pitched more innings, he was there the whole year. Carpenter had the injury. Wainwright led the league in wins and had more innings than Lincecum and Carpenter.
Okay. This makes sense. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes, I guess. I would have gone for Carpenter, but Lincecum and Wainwright were very good choices, too.
ERA and strikeouts don't impress me as much as wins do.
WHAT??!?!?!?
The name of the game is to win.
Well actually the name of the game is "baseball" but sure. But don't you understand there's a difference between TEAM WINS and PITCHER WINS?!
Daniel (Raleigh)
Who is the best option for the Phils to be using in the 9th?
Joe Morgan
(11:18 AM)
I think in order for Philadelphia to defend their championship, Brad Lidge will have to be the closer and will have to do a good job. If he doesn't do a good job, they can't win. But trying to put Madsen in that role or anyone else in that role, I don't think it will work for Philadelphia. I think Lidge has to lead them in the bullpen.
So in conclusion, there are no other options than Lidge, and if Lidge doesn't do well in save situations, Philly won't win. Yeah. That's... not totally obvious (other than the "there are no other options than Lidge" thing).
Joe Morgan
(11:19 AM)
They can not afford to have a blown save, especially in the first round because it's such a short series.
I generally agree with this, especially when you consider the 2009 postseason. But I mean, it's possible. The 2001 Diamondbacks, 2003 Marlins, and 2005 White Sox, off the top of my head, won the World Series when their closer blew a save during the World Series. For the 2009 Yankees, well Mariano didn't blow any saves, but technically, Joba and Hughes did. They still won it all.
Bonnie (Newberry, Mass.)
Do the Saux have any of that playoff spark left in them for the upcoming playoffs as they did in 2004, Mr. Morgan?
I am obsessed with the fact that she called them the "Saux" and then called him "Mr. Morgan." It's like she's some little French schoolgirl or something. Also oh God, the 2004 Red Sox are gonna be like the 1986 Mets in that fans of their team never shut. up. about them, aren't they? I know this is made worse being on the East coast but do you hear Tigers fans going on about how the 1984 Tigers were the bestest team ever? Blue Jays fans, obsessing about the 1992 and 1993 teams?
Joe Morgan
(11:24 AM)
I think this is a little different team as far as the spark you're talking about.
There's a lot fewer "protein shakes" for David Ortiz this time around, is what he means.
But I do know they've been able to beat the Angels in the playoffs, so that should give them some confidence. They've started in Anaheim before and still been able to win. I think the Angels have to win the first game, to send the message that this will be different than the last few times. But Beckett is not the same dominant pitcher he was before.
(fistpump)
And we still have to see Lester in the postseason, see if he can assume Beckett's role as being the dominant ace in the playoffs.
I know it was a SSS (36 innings), but Lester had a 2.25 ERA in the postseason prior to 2009. He didn't pitch the greatest game of all time during it, but, I mean, he pitched and won a clinching game of the World Freaking Series. Also, just for fun:
Beckett, 2008 postseason: 3 G, 14.1 IP (less than 5 IP/game), 8.79 ERA, 1.194 OPS against, 7 HR
Lester, 2008 postseason: 4 G, 26.2 IP (between 6.1 IP and 6.2 IP/game), 2.36 ERA, .612 OPS against, 3 HR
Yeahhh, Lester hasn't proven himself yet. Somehow Beckett was 1-0 and Lester, 1-2, over the course of that postseason, though. And the sponsorship of Lester's page on Baseball Reference is hilariously overblown, by the way. I'm about as big a fan of him as I can possibly be, considering he's a Red Sox player and I'm a Yankee fan. But yikes, calm yo'self.
Jon (Cleveland)
Joe, Do you think the Yankees do enough of the little things (stolen bases, advancing runners) to make it through the playoffs? Mashers are great for the regular season, but everyone knows playoff games come down to small ball. Thanks!
I can't tell if this is JoeBaiting or not. I think it is, but I'm not sure.
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
You're no longer gonig to be facing fourth and fifth starters where you can beef up your stats. You're going to be facing good pitching.
The Yankees led baseball in pretty much every offensive category. They were a ridiculous powerhouse. I know in the playoffs you're generally gonna face better pitching, but it makes sense that, you know who would probably be able to hit better pitching the best? The best offense.
But I think the Yankees can handle it.
WELL THANK GOD
They are a veteran group of guys. They are capable of doing the small things needed to win, in addition to hitting the ball out of the ball park. So, yes, I do think they can do the small things needed to win.
Thanks for the vote of confidence, Joe!
Chris (New Jersey)
How do you think the National League playoffs will go?
Joe Morgan
(11:28 AM)
I think the NL is going to be the more interesting of the playoffs, because all of the teams are so evenly matched.
And how are the AL teams... like... not evenly matched?
The Rockies were playing well down the stretch, the Cardinals did not.
In September and October:
Rockies 20-11
Cardinals 14-17
Okay, Joe has a point.
The Phillies played OK down the stretch, the Dodgers did not.
Phillies 18-16
Dodgers 17-13
I remember both these teams like, being one game away from clinching and not doing it for a few games and actually giving their fans some heart attacks about that. But that's a pretty similar level of playing.
But none of this really means anything. I'm gonna use some Yankee-centric examples so forgive me, but they're all I can think of off the top of my head and I don't want to do a study. The 1998 Yankees came into the playoffs having won seven games in a row - they looked awesome - and won the whole thing. The 2000 Yankees came into the playoffs having lost seven games in a row and something like fifteen of eighteen - they looked awful - and won the whole thing. Andy Pettitte had given up like ten runs in an inning in his last start. That's some bad. I don't even want to know what the comments on the internet would have been like around that time. But anyway, playing so horribly down the stretch didn't make the Yankees panic and suck. "Momentum" is basically bullshit.
Anything can change every day. That's what makes baseball such a great sport. I actually felt the Cardinals were the best team three weeks ago, but by the end of the season, I wasn't sure. They do have Carpenter and Wainwright, who are probably the two most dominant pitchers this year.
You haven't been watching Greinke, have you?
Hamels and Lee at their best can matchup with anyone.
But... but... but... Carpenter and Wainwright!!! Also, let's face it, this year was not Hamels' best, at all. Ever, really.
Realistically, I think it will be the Cardinals and Phillies for the NLCS, because of their starting pitching. All of the teams that are left can score runs.
Yeah, you know, it'd be kinda weird if a team made the playoffs while scoring a total of 0 runs all season.
The Dodgers are probably the weakest as far as power and run scoring ability of the group.
Total runs scored/allowed and their rank in the NL:
Colorado 804/715, #2/#6
St. Louis 730/640, #7/#2
Philly 820/709, #1/#5
Los Angeles 780/611, #4/#1 (tied with Giants)
Technically, they're the second-weakest in terms of runs, but that's still a pretty potent team. But they're also the best at preventing runs, as you can see. They had the lowest ERA in all of baseball, with a very sexy 3.41 along with a 1.25 WHIP. Opponents were OPSing .673 against their pitching. Sure, they played in the NL West, but those numbers are still outstanding. IIRC, they had the best run differential, too.
But in the playoffs, you usually don't score a lot of runs anyway.
Scores from the games in the 2008 playoffs.
ALDS1 (Red Sox/Angels): 4-1, 7-5, 5-4, 3-2
ALDS2 (Rays/White Sox): 6-4, 6-2, 5-3, 6-2
NLDS1 (Dodgers/Cubs): 7-2, 10-3, 3-1
NLDS2 (Phillies/Brewers): 3-1, 5-2, 4-1, 6-2
ALCS: 2-0, 9-8, 9-1, 13-4, 8-7, 4-2, 3-1
NLCS: 3-2, 8-5, 7-2, 7-5, 5-1
World Series: 3-2, 4-2, 5-4, 10-2, 4-3
I guess a majority of these games are generally closer than you'd see in the non-playoffs, when, you know, really really really good teams are sometimes playing really really really crappy teams. There are generally variations in quality between playoff teams, but it's not like the 2009 Yankees would be taking on the 2009 Royals (minus Greinke) there or something. But I mean, at least once in every one of those series, a team scored 6 runs in at least one game. That would count as "a lot" for me.
Just for fun times and because the Yankees won and that was a lot of fun so let's all relive it, the 2009 playoffs.
ALDS1 (Yankees/Twins): 7-2, 4-3, 4-1
ALDS2 (Angels/Red Sox): 5-0, 4-1, 7-6
NLDS1 (Dodgers/Cardinals): 5-3, 3-2, 5-1
NLDS2 (Phillies/Rockies): 5-1, 5-4, 6-5, 5-4
ALCS: 4-1, 4-3, 5-4, 10-1, 7-6, 5-2
NLCS: 8-6, 2-1, 11-0, 5-4, 10-4
World Series: 6-1, 3-1, 8-5, 7-4, 8-6, 7-3
Those NLCS numbers minus the 2-1 game, yikes. And the World Series was a slugfest at times.
Joe Morgan
(11:29 AM)
I think we'll have a great postseason this year. Remember, as I said before, any team that gets into the playoffs can win the world championship.
Brilliant. Genius, Joe. Absolutely genius.
oh, TOM VERDUCCI.
From after the first game of 2009 for the Phillies... you are SO MUCH BETTER than this, baby.
This is such a bad article, it's embarrassing. Like, I don't know if I quite believe this was Verducci. I know he's not the greatest sportswriter in the world, but the guy is not a fucking dumbass. And this is a fucking dumbass article.
This is such a bad article, it's embarrassing. Like, I don't know if I quite believe this was Verducci. I know he's not the greatest sportswriter in the world, but the guy is not a fucking dumbass. And this is a fucking dumbass article.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
OH MY GOD THIS IS SO AMAZING
I was reading some old Joe Morgan chats because I enjoy dumb writing about baseball and I found this:
Mose (Beet Farm)
Joe! The Red Sox fell out of the Wild Card lead, their inconsistency is killing me. Maybe they should play a little small ball, do more hit and run with Ellsbury and Pedroia, rather than sit back and wait on the 3 run HR. What do you think?
Joe Morgan
I think you're a smart baseball person. They have the fewest sacrifice bunts in MLB. They don't hit and run. The only guy who will steal a base is Ellsbury. Pedroia will every once in a while. But they just sit and wait for the home run, which doesn't come around as much any more. I don't think they'll catch the Yankees by doing that. They might not even hold on to the wild card. They might have to change the way they play on offense.
If you know Fire Joe Morgan, and who actually wrote for Fire Joe Morgan, AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
ETA: Hmmm, now that I think about it, I'm not sure it's the FJM guys. It's clearly someone that's Joe-baiting, but FJM would be a lot more subtle. The Mose thing, the Red Sox fandom, "consistency," talking about small ball and not "waiting for the three-run HR." It's a little too obvious. But well done, whoever this was.
Mose (Beet Farm)
Joe! The Red Sox fell out of the Wild Card lead, their inconsistency is killing me. Maybe they should play a little small ball, do more hit and run with Ellsbury and Pedroia, rather than sit back and wait on the 3 run HR. What do you think?
Joe Morgan
I think you're a smart baseball person. They have the fewest sacrifice bunts in MLB. They don't hit and run. The only guy who will steal a base is Ellsbury. Pedroia will every once in a while. But they just sit and wait for the home run, which doesn't come around as much any more. I don't think they'll catch the Yankees by doing that. They might not even hold on to the wild card. They might have to change the way they play on offense.
If you know Fire Joe Morgan, and who actually wrote for Fire Joe Morgan, AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
ETA: Hmmm, now that I think about it, I'm not sure it's the FJM guys. It's clearly someone that's Joe-baiting, but FJM would be a lot more subtle. The Mose thing, the Red Sox fandom, "consistency," talking about small ball and not "waiting for the three-run HR." It's a little too obvious. But well done, whoever this was.
Yummy
The 1998 Texas Rangers scored 940 runs. I know that was in TEH STEROID ERA and they were in a verrrry hitter-friendly ballpark, but in comparison, the 2009 Yankees, a totally ridiculous team offensively, "only" scored 915 runs.
Their slash line in the 1998 ALDS: .141/.177/.174/.351. Ivan Rodriguez had their only RBI, and he had a .200 OPS in that series.
The 1999 Texas Rangers scored 945 runs. Their numbers were a little better in the ALDS - .152/.228/.207/.434 - but still, holy crap. The Yankees had some good pitching in those series, which is generally what happens when, three years in a row, they give up one run in three games.
Their slash line in the 1998 ALDS: .141/.177/.174/.351. Ivan Rodriguez had their only RBI, and he had a .200 OPS in that series.
The 1999 Texas Rangers scored 945 runs. Their numbers were a little better in the ALDS - .152/.228/.207/.434 - but still, holy crap. The Yankees had some good pitching in those series, which is generally what happens when, three years in a row, they give up one run in three games.
Friday, February 19, 2010
if you can't tell...
I'm simply not watching Project Runway this season. Sigh.
Also, THE NEW ANTM GIRLS ARE OUT!!!!, I really should go say mean things about them or whatever.
Also, THE NEW ANTM GIRLS ARE OUT!!!!, I really should go say mean things about them or whatever.
Gammons... (sigh)
True story: I usually don't mind Peter Gammons. I'll roll my eyes at things he says on TV sometimes, but he's a very good reporter and generally actually interested in stats beyond RBI! and RUNS SCORED! and PITCHER WINS!. I'm not particularly happy he's going to be on MLB Network, though I guess they need a Red Sox homer to go along with their Yankee/Mets homer (Al Leiter), Mariners homer (Harold Reynolds), Tigers homer (Sean Casey), and Phillies homer (Mitch Williams), plus maybe he can hit Harold Reynolds so that he stops whining whenever the network tries to talk about even the most slightly advanced stats (we are talking, like, OPS here, people). For a Red Sox fan, he sure loooves Mariano Rivera (though, I was disgusted when Mariano showed up to talk to the Baseball Tonight guys on the field the night the Yankees won the World Series, and the first thing Gammons said to him was basically, "Congrats on winning the World Series. Remember the time you blew the World Series?" WOW.). Like I said, he's pretty fair and impartial. Except when it comes to the Red Sox. Then, he becomes a little ten-year-old boy in the stands at Fenway cheering for Dustin Pedroia.
Here's an article he wrote about the "young guns" in the AL East. I won't be critiquing the whole thing because it's too long and I admit to being under-aware of the Rays' system other than that they have a lot of young guys, but parts of it are just absolutely friggin' ridiculous with how much Gammo writes off the Yankees' young guys, while doing all but writing love notes to Clay Buchholz. Man, that is the hardest name to pronounce and spell...
Yanks manager Joe Girardi essentially said the same up the road in Tampa, where one of the Yankees' most significant storylines will be Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain: Who starts and who relieves? All winter, general manager Brian Cashman has asked for patience, hoping that between them, they have a power starter and a power setup man for Mariano Rivera.
In Port Charlotte, an hour and a half to the south of The Trop, the Rays hope that David Price and Wade Davis are ready to make the leap that Jeff Niemann made last year and that Matt Garza made in 2008, when they won the AL pennant.
And here in The Fort, at the Spring Training home of the Red Sox, Clay Buchholz reported to camp with a chiseled addition of a dozen pounds and, after pounding out nine quality starts in his last 10 appearances, is preparing to take his extraordinary stuff out for 30 starts. What that means on a staff that already has Daisuke Matsuzaka and All-Star Tim Wakefield as fourth and fifth starters, no one knows.
So, Gammons concludes:
- The Yankees are hoping they get a decent starter and a decent reliever out of their young guys. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.
- The Rays are hoping their young guys are okay. Maybe they are, maybe they're not.
- CLAY BUCHHOLZ IS THE BESTEST AND OMG HE WORKED OUT A LOT HE IS SOOOO FINE. LEGENDARY DEPTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also, uh, here are Clay's last ten starts.
Aug. 19 vs. TOR: 6 IP, 1 ER (quality)
Aug. 24 vs. CHW: 4.2 IP, 7 ER (NOT QUALITY)
Aug. 29 vs. TOR: 8.1 IP, 1 ER (quality)
Sept. 3 vs. TBR: 6 IP, 3 ER (quality)
Sept. 8 vs. BAL: 7 IP, 0 ER (quality)
Sept. 13 vs. TBR: 7 IP, 1 ER (quality)
Sept. 18 vs. BAL: 6 IP, 1 ER (quality)
Sept. 24 vs. KCR: 6.2 IP, 0 ER (quality)
Sept. 29 vs. TOR: 5 IP, 7 ER (NOT QUALITY)
Oct. 4 vs. CLE: 3 IP, 6 ER (NOT QUALITY)
Try seven out of ten, Peter. I mean, that's quite good. I'd be cheering if Joba and Phil could give us stretches like that August 29-September 24 stretch (though I'd be fairly sure, without looking, that Joba had a stretch like that for at least a month). He's a young guy, he's gonna be inconsistent, but this shows a lot of promise. But let's not give blatantly wrong facts by saying nine out of ten of his starts were quality, because seven out of ten were. That's still pretty darn good, especially for a young guy, but can you not, like, lie?
I'll give him the slight benefit of the doubt that maybe he meant the Red Sox won nine out of ten of those games, because they did, including that start against the White Sox and the one against Cleveland. But Gammons is never really one to let facts get in the way of talking about how Red Sox prospects are teh awsum.
Also, don't go on about his "extraordinary stuff" and whatnot, when you're not doing that for the other teams. I can hear your heavy breathing from here, Gammo.
(And Tim Wakefield went to the All-Star Game last year for the first time in his long career - and I'm pretty sure he wasn't voted in by the fans, but Maddon brought him along, which was okay because as I said, the guy's had a long-ass career and he seems like a really really good guy - because he led the AL in WINS! with 11 at the break despite a 4.31 ERA. Greinke had 10 wins and a 2.12 ERA. Felix, 9 wins and a 2.53 ERA. Halladay, 10 wins and a 2.85 ERA. Was there really a point to that? No, but I'll never pass up the opportunity to point out how stupid pitcher wins are as a stat. Tim was an impressive 9-3 at one point... with a not-so-impressive 4.47 ERA. After the ASB, Tim never won a game again and only made four more starts, in which - SSS, to be sure - he had a 6.00 ERA and he walked more guys than he struck out.)
Girardi has been careful to remain open on the Chamberlain-Hughes issue, especially now that Vazquez is in the rotation in place of the departed Chien-Ming Wang. The numbers clearly show that either can be a sound lead-in to Rivera. Hughes is 8-9 with a 5.22 ERA as a starter in his career, and in his seven starts in 2009 -- after being called into the rotation to replace the injured Wang -- he gave up six homers, which actually may be understandable in the Bronx launching pad. But in 44 games as a reliever, he had a 1.40 ERA, allowed just 31 hits in 51 1/3 innings and carried a 13:65 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
I'm ignoring his totally predictable dig at Yankee Stadium but I'll point out that, if you look at those last two starts against Toronto and Cleveland, Buchholz gave up six home runs in two games. And Buchholz' numbers as a starter: 12-14, 4.91 ERA.
He did pretty damn well when Boston called him up in 2007, including pitching a freaking no-hitter, but since 2007, he's 9-13 with a 5.36 ERA, 1.554 WHIP, and 1.82 K/BB ratio. Now, Sox fans that aren't Gammons who will probably find some way to interpret those numbers as being AWESOME, I'm not trying to say he's crap. I'm just trying to say he's a young guy and will be inconsistent, and you have to be patient. Why does Buchholz get all the chances to start in the world, but Joba and Hughes OMG HAVE TO GO TO THE BULLPEN?
Also, "injured Wang," heh heh heh.
The much-publicized "Joba Rules" -- applied to prepare him for a long-term career -- might have restricted Chamberlain's development last season. Joba is 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA as a starter and has shown flashes of command of all his pitches, but that fire-breathing charge out of the bullpen
"Fire-breathing." "Bull in a china shop." Joba is always described like this.
resulted in far more velocity and a career ERA as a reliever of 1.50, with 39 hits and a 20:79 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 60 innings.
So besides trying to decide if one of the two is Rivera's successor, ...
And here's where Peter misses the point entirely. The Yankees didn't draft Hughes and Chamberlain, especially Hughes, a first-round pick, just to be relief pitchers. Other than Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees haven't had a homegrown starting pitcher with any real sort of success since Andy Pettitte. I totally love him to death and I may actually cry when he finally retires, but his rookie year was 1995 and he's nearing 38 years old. With the way teams are locking up their homegrown pitchers - look at what happened with King Felix and Verlander in this offseason, and even Lincecum to a much lesser extent - there is such a premium on young pitching. Almost nothing in baseball is more valuable than a very young, even-slightly-above-league-average, homegrown starter.
Because of really crazy excellent pitchers like Lincecum coming up and having immediate success, plus New York's very annoying media that demands results NOOOOOWWWWW, Joba and Hughes not being able to dominate in the starting rotation Lincecum-style immediately means they are failures as starters and need to be moved to the bullpen ASAP. Heck, sometimes even the most dominant pitchers in baseball go through growing pains. Roy Halladay, through his age 24 year in 2001, had pitched 336+ major league IP, starting 49 games, and was sporting a 4.95 ERA, a 1.537 WHIP, and a 1.59 K/BB ratio. To be fair, these stats were skewed by a horrible 2000, but you have to give these guys time to grow. I'm not saying Hughes, Joba, or Buchholz will be Roy Halladay, just that you can't give up on young guys so early.
These arguments aren't helped by the fact that the Yankees have had the best reliever in baseball history on their team working out of their bullpen as either a set-up guy/long reliever or closer since 1996, and Joba and Hughes were so good in the bullpen, especially Joba, who first came up there and set up JOBAMANIA!!! in, IIRC, the summer of 2007. You want to know why Mariano Rivera went to the bullpen in the first place? It was because his ERA as a starter (in a 50-inning sample size, to be fair) was 5.94. That's way more of a "failure" than Joba, Hughes, or Buchholz have been in any way. Do I think Mariano would have gotten at least slightly better if he'd had more time? Sure. But he was 25 when he first came up to the big leagues and almost 27 by the time the 1996 World Series ended. That's older than the age at which you want your starting pitchers to start developing their secondary pitches.
And please don't say something like "well look like how good Mo's been, if we put Joba and Hughes in the bullpen they'll be like that too!!!" Mariano Rivera is a freak who will probably be pitching and dominating with 41MPH cutters when he's 58 years old. He'll still convert 90%+ of his saves, and post an ERA around or under 2, a WHIP just slightly over or just slightly under 1, striking out a ridiculous amount of guys and walking very few. We will likely never see anyone like him ever again. But again, if he was able to, at all, be a league-average starter, or even maybe if he was younger and they had a little more time to be patient with him, they wouldn't have put him in the bullpen to begin with.
Joba and Hughes were put in the bullpen to begin because, pitching out of the bullpen - which is much easier, you don't need as many pitches or, generally, to go through the lineup more than once at most - they are easily MLB-ready talent. In both earlyish 2009 and especially 2007, the Yankees desperately needed bullpen help, and Hughes and Joba were able to be very effective there. And it's certainly not a bad idea to put young guys in the pen when they first come up, in order to give them some confidence that they can get guys out. This scenario is what the Twins and Royals did with, respectively, Johan Santana and David Cone, and that was just off the top of my head so I'm sure there were others too.* But - and I'm sort of rambling, and here is the most important part, so I'm even gonna bold it - even a league-average starting pitcher that gives you 150+ innings is more valuable, at least over a 162-game season, than a stud reliever, unless that reliever is giving you 100+ innings. Peter Gammons isn't dumb, he knows this. And that's probably why he's trying to convince people that the Yankees should basically give up on their young starters and put them in the bullpen.
Neither Hughes nor Joba is Rivera's successor, or at least neither should be. There are plenty of guys in the Yankees' minor leagues who are excellent relievers or meh starters. They'll make good relief pitchers and closers. These are Rivera's successors. Maybe the Yankees will sign Soria or even, vomit, Papelbon, when he hits free agency or something, I don't know. It kills me to write this sentence, but when Mo retires, they will replace him. His replacement will likely not be as out-and-out amazing as he is, and he probably won't mean as much to me personally, but they'll find someone that can close games at a very good rate.
I don't know if either of Joba or Hughes will ever be what Andy has been, nevertheless any sort of ace or Cy Young-caliber pitcher, but we can't just give up on them. And yes, shoving them in the bullpen to not even be a closer but a one-inning-set-up-guy for good is, at this point, giving up on them. I understand there's no room in the rotation for both of them this year, so putting the other one in the pen is pretty much the best idea; it, at least, makes the pen much stronger. But when whichever one in the pen excells, please please please don't say this means they should be in the pen permanently. Please.
I rambled a lot as I am wont to do, so TL;DR: Peter Gammons doesn't know what he's talking about when it comes to the young Yankee pitchers and the ultimate goal of the Yankees for both Joba and Hughes should not be to make them the heir to Mariano Rivera, it should be to make them decent starting pitchers. And I believe this is what the Yankees intend to do.
* of course, the Royals pretty much gave up on him early on and traded him to the Mets for Ed Hearn, Rick Anderson, and Mauro Gozzo. Dumb. Cone was generally one of the great voices of sanity in the Joba/Hughes thing last year, because he went through it, and he constantly talked about how you have to give young pitchers time and patience. And you absolutely do. Not everyone can be Tim Lincecum or even Andy Pettitte, who is really one very tough son-of-a-bitch (I like how his 1997 is basically one big "F you, Verducci Effect!").
I'm going to skip the Rays part because I'm honestly not informed enough about them to talk about it, but Gammons talks about the Red Sox at the end, because, you know, save the best for last and all that:
With Buchholz, the arm has always been there from his second big league start, when he no-hit the Orioles. Hall of Famer Jim Palmer has offered the opinion that Buchholz has the best stuff of any starter in the league.
FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP
Buchholz since he no-hit the Orioles: 5.19 ERA. The arm is ~always there~
After the Jays turned down Boston's five-for-one offer for Roy Halladay on July 29, Buchholz actually won as many games (six) as Halladay.
Buchholz stats since July 29: 76.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.97 K/BB ratio
Halladay stats since July 29: 91 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.26 K/BB ratio
Oh, and remember Halladay's supposed "bad" period right after the trade deadline. But don't you see, THEY'RE EXACTLY THE SAME!!!!! The W-L record has nothing to do with the fact that Buchholz pitched for a much better team than Halladay did!!!!!
(Buchholz actually had a slightly better OPSA, go figure, though Buch gave up more home runs in fewer innings.)
He started utilizing his two-seamer to give him a pitch for strikes to go with his curveball, change and four-seamer. And after a winter of training, he arrived at Spring Training seemingly more mature and certainly stronger.
FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP
If this was an article by a totally unbiased person and not just a Buchholz and Sox-in-general love fest, Gammons would talk about the pitches Joba and Hughes were working on, too. But it's not, and it is, so he doesn't.
With Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Lackey, the Red Sox know their front three. If, as believed, Matsuzaka's back strain isn't serious, he's going to start.
Gammons is seriously the friggin' Minister of Propaganda for ~Red Sox Nation.~ Dice-K's medical issues are never ever ever a problem. He is a reliable warrior and the best Japanese import ever. Unless he's bad-mouthing the Red Sox staff to the Japanese press. Then he's a traitor who is constantly hurt and never throws strikes. I guess I should just be proud that, when asked who he thought was going to win AL Comeback Player of the Year for 2010 on MLB Network, Gammons didn't answer Dice-K.
"I have to prove myself as a starter," Buchholz said. "I tried to get stronger so I can hold up, but I don't have any starter's stress right now. Wake has earned all the respect that the rest of us should show him. I'll do whatever they want. If I pitch well, I'll get lots of opportunities."
That's nice. Where are the quotes from Hughes, Joba, Price, and Davis, and even the young guys on the Orioles that everyone's been talking about? Oh, right, they're not Red Sox. Also, he has to prove himself as a starter? He hasn't yet!! Clearly the Red Sox need a set-up guy to their set-up guy!!!! Buchholz to the seventh!!!! The game will be over after six innings!!! This would be funnier if it wasn't exactly what a lot of Yankee fans wanted Joba and Hughes to do for the rest of their careers rather than start.
In this division, with the two highest payrolls and three of what the PECOTA and other analytical experts feel are the best teams in the sport, the self-developed young pitchers may end up being a major factor in who wins 90, who wins 95 and who wins 100 games in 2010, all with touted two-way Red Sox prospect Casey Kelly standing in the shadows.
1. PECOTA is sooooo screwy this year. I've stopped trusting it. They've messed up their projections so many times that they're on their fourth revision, with indications that they're going to change again. Currently, their projections include no teams in the AL Central having a winning record and no teams outside of the AL East having 90 wins, and in the AL East, three teams have 90 wins. I know the AL East is really crazy good, but the chances of that happening are just so miniscule. I also think that they badly overestimate young players (remember their projections for Weiters last year?) and tend to predict that anyone over 33 or so will totally fall off a cliff the next year.
They're also only projecting a 23-game difference between the best record in baseball and the worst. Since baseball introduced the unbalanced schedule in 2001, the average difference between the best record in baseball and the worst is over 44 games. The lowest it's ever been is 30, and that was pretty much an outlier (if you care, since 2001, the number of games separating the best and worst records: 54, 48, 58, 54, 44, 36, 30, 41, 44). That's not to say a 23-game difference between the best and worst record won't happen. It's just that it seems extremely unlikely to happen. Other crazy sabermetrically-inclined people have pointed out that the AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS they're projecting for each team doesn't match up at all with the total runs they're projecting for the teams.
Basically, PECOTA has been bizarre this entire offseason.
2. Pretty much non-important, but I am pretty sure that, unless something changed, the two top payrolls in the league are the Yankees and the Mets, not the Yankees and the Red Sox. NO, THIS DOESN'T MEAN THE RED SOX ARE SOME SCRAPPY SMALL-MARKET TEAM (I contemplated putting that in bold), but you'd think Pete would put any fact in there if it could build up the Red Sox and put down the Yankees in any way. It's also one of those fact-checking things that, in a generally bad article, is gonna annoy me juuuust a little bit more than it should.
3. I saved the most important point for last. WHAT THE FUCK does Casey Kelly have ANYTHING at all to do with this other than that he's the latest Red Sox prospect Gammons, ESPN, and sports media in general will be desperately overhyping, Daniel Bard-style? (He throws 100 MPH OMGZ!!!!) Also, "standing in the shadows," huh?
I don't want to put the "idiot" label on this post because Gammons is not an idiot, he's just a ridiculous Red Sox homer. I know I could never write for ESPN because I'd just write about how the Yankees are awesome and how overrated Josh Beckett is and whatever. But I am tempted to stick that label on this post. Instead, I'll go look at some more pictures from Spring Training of Andy being super hot to make me feel muuuuch better, or something.
Here's an article he wrote about the "young guns" in the AL East. I won't be critiquing the whole thing because it's too long and I admit to being under-aware of the Rays' system other than that they have a lot of young guys, but parts of it are just absolutely friggin' ridiculous with how much Gammo writes off the Yankees' young guys, while doing all but writing love notes to Clay Buchholz. Man, that is the hardest name to pronounce and spell...
Yanks manager Joe Girardi essentially said the same up the road in Tampa, where one of the Yankees' most significant storylines will be Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain: Who starts and who relieves? All winter, general manager Brian Cashman has asked for patience, hoping that between them, they have a power starter and a power setup man for Mariano Rivera.
In Port Charlotte, an hour and a half to the south of The Trop, the Rays hope that David Price and Wade Davis are ready to make the leap that Jeff Niemann made last year and that Matt Garza made in 2008, when they won the AL pennant.
And here in The Fort, at the Spring Training home of the Red Sox, Clay Buchholz reported to camp with a chiseled addition of a dozen pounds and, after pounding out nine quality starts in his last 10 appearances, is preparing to take his extraordinary stuff out for 30 starts. What that means on a staff that already has Daisuke Matsuzaka and All-Star Tim Wakefield as fourth and fifth starters, no one knows.
So, Gammons concludes:
- The Yankees are hoping they get a decent starter and a decent reliever out of their young guys. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.
- The Rays are hoping their young guys are okay. Maybe they are, maybe they're not.
- CLAY BUCHHOLZ IS THE BESTEST AND OMG HE WORKED OUT A LOT HE IS SOOOO FINE. LEGENDARY DEPTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also, uh, here are Clay's last ten starts.
Aug. 19 vs. TOR: 6 IP, 1 ER (quality)
Aug. 24 vs. CHW: 4.2 IP, 7 ER (NOT QUALITY)
Aug. 29 vs. TOR: 8.1 IP, 1 ER (quality)
Sept. 3 vs. TBR: 6 IP, 3 ER (quality)
Sept. 8 vs. BAL: 7 IP, 0 ER (quality)
Sept. 13 vs. TBR: 7 IP, 1 ER (quality)
Sept. 18 vs. BAL: 6 IP, 1 ER (quality)
Sept. 24 vs. KCR: 6.2 IP, 0 ER (quality)
Sept. 29 vs. TOR: 5 IP, 7 ER (NOT QUALITY)
Oct. 4 vs. CLE: 3 IP, 6 ER (NOT QUALITY)
Try seven out of ten, Peter. I mean, that's quite good. I'd be cheering if Joba and Phil could give us stretches like that August 29-September 24 stretch (though I'd be fairly sure, without looking, that Joba had a stretch like that for at least a month). He's a young guy, he's gonna be inconsistent, but this shows a lot of promise. But let's not give blatantly wrong facts by saying nine out of ten of his starts were quality, because seven out of ten were. That's still pretty darn good, especially for a young guy, but can you not, like, lie?
I'll give him the slight benefit of the doubt that maybe he meant the Red Sox won nine out of ten of those games, because they did, including that start against the White Sox and the one against Cleveland. But Gammons is never really one to let facts get in the way of talking about how Red Sox prospects are teh awsum.
Also, don't go on about his "extraordinary stuff" and whatnot, when you're not doing that for the other teams. I can hear your heavy breathing from here, Gammo.
(And Tim Wakefield went to the All-Star Game last year for the first time in his long career - and I'm pretty sure he wasn't voted in by the fans, but Maddon brought him along, which was okay because as I said, the guy's had a long-ass career and he seems like a really really good guy - because he led the AL in WINS! with 11 at the break despite a 4.31 ERA. Greinke had 10 wins and a 2.12 ERA. Felix, 9 wins and a 2.53 ERA. Halladay, 10 wins and a 2.85 ERA. Was there really a point to that? No, but I'll never pass up the opportunity to point out how stupid pitcher wins are as a stat. Tim was an impressive 9-3 at one point... with a not-so-impressive 4.47 ERA. After the ASB, Tim never won a game again and only made four more starts, in which - SSS, to be sure - he had a 6.00 ERA and he walked more guys than he struck out.)
Girardi has been careful to remain open on the Chamberlain-Hughes issue, especially now that Vazquez is in the rotation in place of the departed Chien-Ming Wang. The numbers clearly show that either can be a sound lead-in to Rivera. Hughes is 8-9 with a 5.22 ERA as a starter in his career, and in his seven starts in 2009 -- after being called into the rotation to replace the injured Wang -- he gave up six homers, which actually may be understandable in the Bronx launching pad. But in 44 games as a reliever, he had a 1.40 ERA, allowed just 31 hits in 51 1/3 innings and carried a 13:65 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
I'm ignoring his totally predictable dig at Yankee Stadium but I'll point out that, if you look at those last two starts against Toronto and Cleveland, Buchholz gave up six home runs in two games. And Buchholz' numbers as a starter: 12-14, 4.91 ERA.
He did pretty damn well when Boston called him up in 2007, including pitching a freaking no-hitter, but since 2007, he's 9-13 with a 5.36 ERA, 1.554 WHIP, and 1.82 K/BB ratio. Now, Sox fans that aren't Gammons who will probably find some way to interpret those numbers as being AWESOME, I'm not trying to say he's crap. I'm just trying to say he's a young guy and will be inconsistent, and you have to be patient. Why does Buchholz get all the chances to start in the world, but Joba and Hughes OMG HAVE TO GO TO THE BULLPEN?
Also, "injured Wang," heh heh heh.
The much-publicized "Joba Rules" -- applied to prepare him for a long-term career -- might have restricted Chamberlain's development last season. Joba is 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA as a starter and has shown flashes of command of all his pitches, but that fire-breathing charge out of the bullpen
"Fire-breathing." "Bull in a china shop." Joba is always described like this.
resulted in far more velocity and a career ERA as a reliever of 1.50, with 39 hits and a 20:79 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 60 innings.
So besides trying to decide if one of the two is Rivera's successor, ...
And here's where Peter misses the point entirely. The Yankees didn't draft Hughes and Chamberlain, especially Hughes, a first-round pick, just to be relief pitchers. Other than Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees haven't had a homegrown starting pitcher with any real sort of success since Andy Pettitte. I totally love him to death and I may actually cry when he finally retires, but his rookie year was 1995 and he's nearing 38 years old. With the way teams are locking up their homegrown pitchers - look at what happened with King Felix and Verlander in this offseason, and even Lincecum to a much lesser extent - there is such a premium on young pitching. Almost nothing in baseball is more valuable than a very young, even-slightly-above-league-average, homegrown starter.
Because of really crazy excellent pitchers like Lincecum coming up and having immediate success, plus New York's very annoying media that demands results NOOOOOWWWWW, Joba and Hughes not being able to dominate in the starting rotation Lincecum-style immediately means they are failures as starters and need to be moved to the bullpen ASAP. Heck, sometimes even the most dominant pitchers in baseball go through growing pains. Roy Halladay, through his age 24 year in 2001, had pitched 336+ major league IP, starting 49 games, and was sporting a 4.95 ERA, a 1.537 WHIP, and a 1.59 K/BB ratio. To be fair, these stats were skewed by a horrible 2000, but you have to give these guys time to grow. I'm not saying Hughes, Joba, or Buchholz will be Roy Halladay, just that you can't give up on young guys so early.
These arguments aren't helped by the fact that the Yankees have had the best reliever in baseball history on their team working out of their bullpen as either a set-up guy/long reliever or closer since 1996, and Joba and Hughes were so good in the bullpen, especially Joba, who first came up there and set up JOBAMANIA!!! in, IIRC, the summer of 2007. You want to know why Mariano Rivera went to the bullpen in the first place? It was because his ERA as a starter (in a 50-inning sample size, to be fair) was 5.94. That's way more of a "failure" than Joba, Hughes, or Buchholz have been in any way. Do I think Mariano would have gotten at least slightly better if he'd had more time? Sure. But he was 25 when he first came up to the big leagues and almost 27 by the time the 1996 World Series ended. That's older than the age at which you want your starting pitchers to start developing their secondary pitches.
And please don't say something like "well look like how good Mo's been, if we put Joba and Hughes in the bullpen they'll be like that too!!!" Mariano Rivera is a freak who will probably be pitching and dominating with 41MPH cutters when he's 58 years old. He'll still convert 90%+ of his saves, and post an ERA around or under 2, a WHIP just slightly over or just slightly under 1, striking out a ridiculous amount of guys and walking very few. We will likely never see anyone like him ever again. But again, if he was able to, at all, be a league-average starter, or even maybe if he was younger and they had a little more time to be patient with him, they wouldn't have put him in the bullpen to begin with.
Joba and Hughes were put in the bullpen to begin because, pitching out of the bullpen - which is much easier, you don't need as many pitches or, generally, to go through the lineup more than once at most - they are easily MLB-ready talent. In both earlyish 2009 and especially 2007, the Yankees desperately needed bullpen help, and Hughes and Joba were able to be very effective there. And it's certainly not a bad idea to put young guys in the pen when they first come up, in order to give them some confidence that they can get guys out. This scenario is what the Twins and Royals did with, respectively, Johan Santana and David Cone, and that was just off the top of my head so I'm sure there were others too.* But - and I'm sort of rambling, and here is the most important part, so I'm even gonna bold it - even a league-average starting pitcher that gives you 150+ innings is more valuable, at least over a 162-game season, than a stud reliever, unless that reliever is giving you 100+ innings. Peter Gammons isn't dumb, he knows this. And that's probably why he's trying to convince people that the Yankees should basically give up on their young starters and put them in the bullpen.
Neither Hughes nor Joba is Rivera's successor, or at least neither should be. There are plenty of guys in the Yankees' minor leagues who are excellent relievers or meh starters. They'll make good relief pitchers and closers. These are Rivera's successors. Maybe the Yankees will sign Soria or even, vomit, Papelbon, when he hits free agency or something, I don't know. It kills me to write this sentence, but when Mo retires, they will replace him. His replacement will likely not be as out-and-out amazing as he is, and he probably won't mean as much to me personally, but they'll find someone that can close games at a very good rate.
I don't know if either of Joba or Hughes will ever be what Andy has been, nevertheless any sort of ace or Cy Young-caliber pitcher, but we can't just give up on them. And yes, shoving them in the bullpen to not even be a closer but a one-inning-set-up-guy for good is, at this point, giving up on them. I understand there's no room in the rotation for both of them this year, so putting the other one in the pen is pretty much the best idea; it, at least, makes the pen much stronger. But when whichever one in the pen excells, please please please don't say this means they should be in the pen permanently. Please.
I rambled a lot as I am wont to do, so TL;DR: Peter Gammons doesn't know what he's talking about when it comes to the young Yankee pitchers and the ultimate goal of the Yankees for both Joba and Hughes should not be to make them the heir to Mariano Rivera, it should be to make them decent starting pitchers. And I believe this is what the Yankees intend to do.
* of course, the Royals pretty much gave up on him early on and traded him to the Mets for Ed Hearn, Rick Anderson, and Mauro Gozzo. Dumb. Cone was generally one of the great voices of sanity in the Joba/Hughes thing last year, because he went through it, and he constantly talked about how you have to give young pitchers time and patience. And you absolutely do. Not everyone can be Tim Lincecum or even Andy Pettitte, who is really one very tough son-of-a-bitch (I like how his 1997 is basically one big "F you, Verducci Effect!").
I'm going to skip the Rays part because I'm honestly not informed enough about them to talk about it, but Gammons talks about the Red Sox at the end, because, you know, save the best for last and all that:
With Buchholz, the arm has always been there from his second big league start, when he no-hit the Orioles. Hall of Famer Jim Palmer has offered the opinion that Buchholz has the best stuff of any starter in the league.
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Buchholz since he no-hit the Orioles: 5.19 ERA. The arm is ~always there~
After the Jays turned down Boston's five-for-one offer for Roy Halladay on July 29, Buchholz actually won as many games (six) as Halladay.
Buchholz stats since July 29: 76.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.97 K/BB ratio
Halladay stats since July 29: 91 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.26 K/BB ratio
Oh, and remember Halladay's supposed "bad" period right after the trade deadline. But don't you see, THEY'RE EXACTLY THE SAME!!!!! The W-L record has nothing to do with the fact that Buchholz pitched for a much better team than Halladay did!!!!!
(Buchholz actually had a slightly better OPSA, go figure, though Buch gave up more home runs in fewer innings.)
He started utilizing his two-seamer to give him a pitch for strikes to go with his curveball, change and four-seamer. And after a winter of training, he arrived at Spring Training seemingly more mature and certainly stronger.
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If this was an article by a totally unbiased person and not just a Buchholz and Sox-in-general love fest, Gammons would talk about the pitches Joba and Hughes were working on, too. But it's not, and it is, so he doesn't.
With Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Lackey, the Red Sox know their front three. If, as believed, Matsuzaka's back strain isn't serious, he's going to start.
Gammons is seriously the friggin' Minister of Propaganda for ~Red Sox Nation.~ Dice-K's medical issues are never ever ever a problem. He is a reliable warrior and the best Japanese import ever. Unless he's bad-mouthing the Red Sox staff to the Japanese press. Then he's a traitor who is constantly hurt and never throws strikes. I guess I should just be proud that, when asked who he thought was going to win AL Comeback Player of the Year for 2010 on MLB Network, Gammons didn't answer Dice-K.
"I have to prove myself as a starter," Buchholz said. "I tried to get stronger so I can hold up, but I don't have any starter's stress right now. Wake has earned all the respect that the rest of us should show him. I'll do whatever they want. If I pitch well, I'll get lots of opportunities."
That's nice. Where are the quotes from Hughes, Joba, Price, and Davis, and even the young guys on the Orioles that everyone's been talking about? Oh, right, they're not Red Sox. Also, he has to prove himself as a starter? He hasn't yet!! Clearly the Red Sox need a set-up guy to their set-up guy!!!! Buchholz to the seventh!!!! The game will be over after six innings!!! This would be funnier if it wasn't exactly what a lot of Yankee fans wanted Joba and Hughes to do for the rest of their careers rather than start.
In this division, with the two highest payrolls and three of what the PECOTA and other analytical experts feel are the best teams in the sport, the self-developed young pitchers may end up being a major factor in who wins 90, who wins 95 and who wins 100 games in 2010, all with touted two-way Red Sox prospect Casey Kelly standing in the shadows.
1. PECOTA is sooooo screwy this year. I've stopped trusting it. They've messed up their projections so many times that they're on their fourth revision, with indications that they're going to change again. Currently, their projections include no teams in the AL Central having a winning record and no teams outside of the AL East having 90 wins, and in the AL East, three teams have 90 wins. I know the AL East is really crazy good, but the chances of that happening are just so miniscule. I also think that they badly overestimate young players (remember their projections for Weiters last year?) and tend to predict that anyone over 33 or so will totally fall off a cliff the next year.
They're also only projecting a 23-game difference between the best record in baseball and the worst. Since baseball introduced the unbalanced schedule in 2001, the average difference between the best record in baseball and the worst is over 44 games. The lowest it's ever been is 30, and that was pretty much an outlier (if you care, since 2001, the number of games separating the best and worst records: 54, 48, 58, 54, 44, 36, 30, 41, 44). That's not to say a 23-game difference between the best and worst record won't happen. It's just that it seems extremely unlikely to happen. Other crazy sabermetrically-inclined people have pointed out that the AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS they're projecting for each team doesn't match up at all with the total runs they're projecting for the teams.
Basically, PECOTA has been bizarre this entire offseason.
2. Pretty much non-important, but I am pretty sure that, unless something changed, the two top payrolls in the league are the Yankees and the Mets, not the Yankees and the Red Sox. NO, THIS DOESN'T MEAN THE RED SOX ARE SOME SCRAPPY SMALL-MARKET TEAM (I contemplated putting that in bold), but you'd think Pete would put any fact in there if it could build up the Red Sox and put down the Yankees in any way. It's also one of those fact-checking things that, in a generally bad article, is gonna annoy me juuuust a little bit more than it should.
3. I saved the most important point for last. WHAT THE FUCK does Casey Kelly have ANYTHING at all to do with this other than that he's the latest Red Sox prospect Gammons, ESPN, and sports media in general will be desperately overhyping, Daniel Bard-style? (He throws 100 MPH OMGZ!!!!) Also, "standing in the shadows," huh?
I don't want to put the "idiot" label on this post because Gammons is not an idiot, he's just a ridiculous Red Sox homer. I know I could never write for ESPN because I'd just write about how the Yankees are awesome and how overrated Josh Beckett is and whatever. But I am tempted to stick that label on this post. Instead, I'll go look at some more pictures from Spring Training of Andy being super hot to make me feel muuuuch better, or something.
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