Because I've decided to FJM all the FJM chats from the playoffs, God help me. I've skipped some things here and there that I couldn't really make fun of.
Buzzmaster
(11:02 AM)
Joe is here!
OMG YAY
Joe Morgan
(11:03 AM)
I'm surprised that the Tigers were not able to close it out, because I figured that Minnesota would lose to Greinke once and that they would lost a game or two to Chicago.
[sic] Also, it's not really a great vote of confidence for the Tigers that you thought they were gonna lose their series but still beat Minnesota because Minnesota would lose too.
But that's why baseball is such a great sport, you never know what's going to happen.
You just can't predict baseball, Suzyn!
Chris (New Jersey)
As a Yankees fan, who do I want to play in the Division series?
Probably neither, Chris. You're not a major league baseball player.
Joe Morgan
(11:04 AM)
I would say Minnesota. They don't have a dominant starter like Justin Verlander. They beat the Twins 7 straight games this year, but they were 5-1 against Detroit as well. So, it shouldn't really matter if you're a Yankees fan. They are clearly the better team.
I actually agree with... all of this. Wow. Though Minnesota/Detroit fans might get offended. And the Yankees won all seven games they played against Cleveland in 2007, and it didn't get them out of the first round against them.
Bryan (Ohio)
Hey Joe, who do you think wins the Tigers/Twins game today?
Joe Morgan
(11:06 AM)
You can almost flip a coin. I know they're playing in Minnesota so they'll have the crowd and the homefield advantage. But I've seen the situation where the road team has won these playoffs before. I was involved in one in 1980 in Los Angeles. I was with the Astros and the Dodgers beat us three straight to end the season and tie for the division championship. We won on Monday and we won by a big margin. It wasn't a close game. But what it did do, it cost us Joe Neikro, our ace at the time. He had to pitch the tiebreaker game and wasn't available for the first game of the playoffs.
AAAAGH JOE NO ONE CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU THIS ONE TIME ALMOST 30 YEARS AGO.
As for the home field advantage thing, hmmm. I can distinctly remember, off the top of my head, one pretty memorable one-game playoff won by the team without homefield advantage. Of course, you know, Joe should really LOOK THIS UP, it's not that hard. So, I looked for all the one-game playoffs prior to 2009. A star indicates that the team with homefield advantage won.
1948: Cleveland beats Boston at Fenway
1978: Bucky Fucking Dent
1980: Astros beat Dodgers at Dodger Stadium
1995: Mariners beat Angels at Seattle*
1998: Cubs beat Giants at Wrigley*
1999: Mets beat Reds at Cinergy Field
2007: Rockies beat Padres at Coors*
2008: White Sox beat Twins in Chicago*
So it's really kind of a toss-up, though I don't see how the 1999 Mets beating the 1999 Reds at home says anything at all about the 2009 Tigers beating the 2009 Twins.
Joe Morgan
(11:06 AM)
It's anybody's game today. The Tigers could get hot and score a lot of runs early. I think that's their chance of winning.
The Tigers could win if they score a lot of runs early on. That's brilliant.
If it's a close game, I think the edge goes to the Twins.
You could offer, like, reasons for this.
Matt (Buffalo)
Hey Joe, what is your take on the Boston-Anaheim series? More Red Sox dominance against the Angels in the playoffs this year?
Joe Morgan
(11:07 AM)
If you just look at the teams, I think the Angels are the most fundamentally sound, well-rounded of the two teams. They run the bases well, they play good defense, they have good pitching.
And the Red Sox run the bases like chickens without their heads, play shitty defense, and have awful pitching. I have no idea how they got into the playoffs, really.
But they don't have the power that Boston has and that seems to be their downfall, especially in Fenway.
Excluding 2009 (because it hadn't happened at the time of this writing), since and including 2004, the Angels were a pathetic 1-9 against Boston in the playoffs. But the one game they won over those three series (seriously, Angels, shoot yourselves. Except 2009 was awesome.) was at Fenway. The Angels played really badly against the Red Sox no matter where they were playing.
But I think the Angels are better prepared to beat Boston than they have in the past. Beckett is not as dominant as he was before. Lester is the key.
Hearing people doubt Beckett warms the cockles of my heart.
Joe Morgan
(11:08 AM)
If Anaheim is to win the series, they will have to win the first game. It's a tough series to pick.
They don't HAVE to. I understand what he's saying about making a statement or whatever. But it's not a one-game playoff.
Otto (CA)
Hello Joe. Do you think Varitek should get benched for the playoffs? Does he still have anything left? Thanks.
Otto, I'll answer this for you: yes, no. Okay, moving on. Oh crap, we actually have to pay attention to Joe answering the question...
Joe Morgan
(11:10 AM)
Yeah, what he has left is some leadership.
Sad trombone
I don't think they will bench him completely for the playoffs, but I think he will probably catch Beckett as he has done in the past. That may be his only start in this first round series. Victor Martinez is one of the best hitters in the game
He's a very good hitter, though I wouldn't go this far. He is, however, at this point in their careers, a much, much, much, much, much, much, much better hitter than Jason Varitek.
and when you play Varitek, you're taking Mike Lowell's bat out of the game.
Huh? Oh, I guess Joe is assuming they'd play Martinez at first and Youkilis at third.
That's the decision that Francona has to make. The leadership of Varitek or the bat of Mike Lowell.
I really wish Francona would pick "the leadership of Varitek" more often, but unfortunately he is not a moron.
pookie (Arvada, CO)
Does the country outside of the Rocky Mountain Time Zone appreciate how good the Rockies are defensively? Don't you agree that they catch the ball as well as anyone in the big leagues, and couldn't that prove to be the difference as they face pretty evenly-matched teams through the NL playoffs?
This just makes me laugh. "they catch the ball as well as anyone in the big leagues" kinda means they're not particularly better than anyone else at catching the ball. And... like... what does this question even mean? I guess that they play good defense, which is indeed very important.
Joe Morgan
(11:13 AM)
I agree with everything you say. They are not as well respected defensively outside of Colorado. But to know how well a team is defensively, you have to see them on a daily basis,
I didn't watch the 2009 Mets every game. But I knew they were terrible defensively. And no, not because Luis Castillo dropped a game-ending pop up that one time.
you don't make game saving plays every day.
Game-saving plays are generally fluke things that don't really help you determine if a team plays solid defense in general.
Defense can change series, but their problem will be can they slug with a Philadelphia team in Philly and in Coors Field. Both teams are good, so I think it will come down to pitching. Can Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee handle Colorado's offense.
Boy, you sound really enthusiastic there, Joe.
But the same goes for De La Rosa, Jimenez and all of the Rockies pitchers trying to hold Philadelphia.
Jerome (CA)
Do Joe Torre play Juan Pierre in the playoffs? The Dodges werent the same when Manny come back. They missed Pierre's small ball.
[sic]
Juan Pierre, 2009: .308/.365/.392/.757, 105 OPS+
Manny, 2009: .290/.418/.531/.949, 155 OPS+
Keep in mind, everyone kept talking about how this was a bad year for Manny. Okay, you want to look at how he did after the suspension? .269/.389/.491/.881. That's not ludicrous, it's merely really really good. AND STILL BETTER THAN JUAN PIERRE.
Joe Morgan
(11:14 AM)
It's not just the small ball that they missed. It's the energy that he brings every day and the threat that he brings as far as running the bases and stealing bases.
You know what's a much bigger "threat" than Juan Pierre? Manny and his .531 SLG.
No, I don't think Torre uses Pierre more. He made it clear that when Manny came back that he was his left fielder and Pierre was his extra man. I don't know if that will change, however, I did see Pierre playing down the stretch when they were trying to clinch. You never know what Torre's going to do,
This is true. Putting in Weaver instead of Mo in an extra-innings game. Batting A-Rod eighth. Using Enrique Wilson in an elimination game. Writing a book smearing the Yankees after he made a career out of being classy. Guy is crazy.
but I dont' see him taking Manny out of the lineup.
Well we agree on that.
Jeff (Tigers fan in Boston)
That must be annoying. :(
I am extremely confident in Rick Porcello today. If he helps pull out the win for Detroit, he's gotta be the rookie of the year, right?
Joe Morgan
(11:16 AM)
If he can win this game today, he would get my vote.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure the voting had to be in by the game before. So... just general cluelessness.
This is a tough game for a rookie to win on the road. That's why I think that Detroit will have to score a lot of runs and score them early. As long as the game stays close, the deeper it gets into the game, the more it helps Minnesota.
Okay, Morgan just said that Porcello had to win the game, and according to him, the key to winning the game for Porcello is... his team scoring runs, something he has no control over.
Steve (Middletown, CT)
Who is your NL CY Young winner?
Joe Morgan
(11:17 AM)
I would give it to Wainwright, but there are a lot of people that believe that Carpenter deserves it. Wainwright pitched more innings, he was there the whole year. Carpenter had the injury. Wainwright led the league in wins and had more innings than Lincecum and Carpenter.
Okay. This makes sense. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes, I guess. I would have gone for Carpenter, but Lincecum and Wainwright were very good choices, too.
ERA and strikeouts don't impress me as much as wins do.
WHAT??!?!?!?
The name of the game is to win.
Well actually the name of the game is "baseball" but sure. But don't you understand there's a difference between TEAM WINS and PITCHER WINS?!
Daniel (Raleigh)
Who is the best option for the Phils to be using in the 9th?
Joe Morgan
(11:18 AM)
I think in order for Philadelphia to defend their championship, Brad Lidge will have to be the closer and will have to do a good job. If he doesn't do a good job, they can't win. But trying to put Madsen in that role or anyone else in that role, I don't think it will work for Philadelphia. I think Lidge has to lead them in the bullpen.
So in conclusion, there are no other options than Lidge, and if Lidge doesn't do well in save situations, Philly won't win. Yeah. That's... not totally obvious (other than the "there are no other options than Lidge" thing).
Joe Morgan
(11:19 AM)
They can not afford to have a blown save, especially in the first round because it's such a short series.
I generally agree with this, especially when you consider the 2009 postseason. But I mean, it's possible. The 2001 Diamondbacks, 2003 Marlins, and 2005 White Sox, off the top of my head, won the World Series when their closer blew a save during the World Series. For the 2009 Yankees, well Mariano didn't blow any saves, but technically, Joba and Hughes did. They still won it all.
Bonnie (Newberry, Mass.)
Do the Saux have any of that playoff spark left in them for the upcoming playoffs as they did in 2004, Mr. Morgan?
I am obsessed with the fact that she called them the "Saux" and then called him "Mr. Morgan." It's like she's some little French schoolgirl or something. Also oh God, the 2004 Red Sox are gonna be like the 1986 Mets in that fans of their team never shut. up. about them, aren't they? I know this is made worse being on the East coast but do you hear Tigers fans going on about how the 1984 Tigers were the bestest team ever? Blue Jays fans, obsessing about the 1992 and 1993 teams?
Joe Morgan
(11:24 AM)
I think this is a little different team as far as the spark you're talking about.
There's a lot fewer "protein shakes" for David Ortiz this time around, is what he means.
But I do know they've been able to beat the Angels in the playoffs, so that should give them some confidence. They've started in Anaheim before and still been able to win. I think the Angels have to win the first game, to send the message that this will be different than the last few times. But Beckett is not the same dominant pitcher he was before.
(fistpump)
And we still have to see Lester in the postseason, see if he can assume Beckett's role as being the dominant ace in the playoffs.
I know it was a SSS (36 innings), but Lester had a 2.25 ERA in the postseason prior to 2009. He didn't pitch the greatest game of all time during it, but, I mean, he pitched and won a clinching game of the World Freaking Series. Also, just for fun:
Beckett, 2008 postseason: 3 G, 14.1 IP (less than 5 IP/game), 8.79 ERA, 1.194 OPS against, 7 HR
Lester, 2008 postseason: 4 G, 26.2 IP (between 6.1 IP and 6.2 IP/game), 2.36 ERA, .612 OPS against, 3 HR
Yeahhh, Lester hasn't proven himself yet. Somehow Beckett was 1-0 and Lester, 1-2, over the course of that postseason, though. And the sponsorship of Lester's page on Baseball Reference is hilariously overblown, by the way. I'm about as big a fan of him as I can possibly be, considering he's a Red Sox player and I'm a Yankee fan. But yikes, calm yo'self.
Jon (Cleveland)
Joe, Do you think the Yankees do enough of the little things (stolen bases, advancing runners) to make it through the playoffs? Mashers are great for the regular season, but everyone knows playoff games come down to small ball. Thanks!
I can't tell if this is JoeBaiting or not. I think it is, but I'm not sure.
Joe Morgan
(11:25 AM)
You're no longer gonig to be facing fourth and fifth starters where you can beef up your stats. You're going to be facing good pitching.
The Yankees led baseball in pretty much every offensive category. They were a ridiculous powerhouse. I know in the playoffs you're generally gonna face better pitching, but it makes sense that, you know who would probably be able to hit better pitching the best? The best offense.
But I think the Yankees can handle it.
WELL THANK GOD
They are a veteran group of guys. They are capable of doing the small things needed to win, in addition to hitting the ball out of the ball park. So, yes, I do think they can do the small things needed to win.
Thanks for the vote of confidence, Joe!
Chris (New Jersey)
How do you think the National League playoffs will go?
Joe Morgan
(11:28 AM)
I think the NL is going to be the more interesting of the playoffs, because all of the teams are so evenly matched.
And how are the AL teams... like... not evenly matched?
The Rockies were playing well down the stretch, the Cardinals did not.
In September and October:
Rockies 20-11
Cardinals 14-17
Okay, Joe has a point.
The Phillies played OK down the stretch, the Dodgers did not.
Phillies 18-16
Dodgers 17-13
I remember both these teams like, being one game away from clinching and not doing it for a few games and actually giving their fans some heart attacks about that. But that's a pretty similar level of playing.
But none of this really means anything. I'm gonna use some Yankee-centric examples so forgive me, but they're all I can think of off the top of my head and I don't want to do a study. The 1998 Yankees came into the playoffs having won seven games in a row - they looked awesome - and won the whole thing. The 2000 Yankees came into the playoffs having lost seven games in a row and something like fifteen of eighteen - they looked awful - and won the whole thing. Andy Pettitte had given up like ten runs in an inning in his last start. That's some bad. I don't even want to know what the comments on the internet would have been like around that time. But anyway, playing so horribly down the stretch didn't make the Yankees panic and suck. "Momentum" is basically bullshit.
Anything can change every day. That's what makes baseball such a great sport. I actually felt the Cardinals were the best team three weeks ago, but by the end of the season, I wasn't sure. They do have Carpenter and Wainwright, who are probably the two most dominant pitchers this year.
You haven't been watching Greinke, have you?
Hamels and Lee at their best can matchup with anyone.
But... but... but... Carpenter and Wainwright!!! Also, let's face it, this year was not Hamels' best, at all. Ever, really.
Realistically, I think it will be the Cardinals and Phillies for the NLCS, because of their starting pitching. All of the teams that are left can score runs.
Yeah, you know, it'd be kinda weird if a team made the playoffs while scoring a total of 0 runs all season.
The Dodgers are probably the weakest as far as power and run scoring ability of the group.
Total runs scored/allowed and their rank in the NL:
Colorado 804/715, #2/#6
St. Louis 730/640, #7/#2
Philly 820/709, #1/#5
Los Angeles 780/611, #4/#1 (tied with Giants)
Technically, they're the second-weakest in terms of runs, but that's still a pretty potent team. But they're also the best at preventing runs, as you can see. They had the lowest ERA in all of baseball, with a very sexy 3.41 along with a 1.25 WHIP. Opponents were OPSing .673 against their pitching. Sure, they played in the NL West, but those numbers are still outstanding. IIRC, they had the best run differential, too.
But in the playoffs, you usually don't score a lot of runs anyway.
Scores from the games in the 2008 playoffs.
ALDS1 (Red Sox/Angels): 4-1, 7-5, 5-4, 3-2
ALDS2 (Rays/White Sox): 6-4, 6-2, 5-3, 6-2
NLDS1 (Dodgers/Cubs): 7-2, 10-3, 3-1
NLDS2 (Phillies/Brewers): 3-1, 5-2, 4-1, 6-2
ALCS: 2-0, 9-8, 9-1, 13-4, 8-7, 4-2, 3-1
NLCS: 3-2, 8-5, 7-2, 7-5, 5-1
World Series: 3-2, 4-2, 5-4, 10-2, 4-3
I guess a majority of these games are generally closer than you'd see in the non-playoffs, when, you know, really really really good teams are sometimes playing really really really crappy teams. There are generally variations in quality between playoff teams, but it's not like the 2009 Yankees would be taking on the 2009 Royals (minus Greinke) there or something. But I mean, at least once in every one of those series, a team scored 6 runs in at least one game. That would count as "a lot" for me.
Just for fun times and because the Yankees won and that was a lot of fun so let's all relive it, the 2009 playoffs.
ALDS1 (Yankees/Twins): 7-2, 4-3, 4-1
ALDS2 (Angels/Red Sox): 5-0, 4-1, 7-6
NLDS1 (Dodgers/Cardinals): 5-3, 3-2, 5-1
NLDS2 (Phillies/Rockies): 5-1, 5-4, 6-5, 5-4
ALCS: 4-1, 4-3, 5-4, 10-1, 7-6, 5-2
NLCS: 8-6, 2-1, 11-0, 5-4, 10-4
World Series: 6-1, 3-1, 8-5, 7-4, 8-6, 7-3
Those NLCS numbers minus the 2-1 game, yikes. And the World Series was a slugfest at times.
Joe Morgan
(11:29 AM)
I think we'll have a great postseason this year. Remember, as I said before, any team that gets into the playoffs can win the world championship.
Brilliant. Genius, Joe. Absolutely genius.
