These CRAAAAZY Oscar nominations.

At least every category has a "WUT????" moment.

Also, hey, Academy. I know you complain about how nobody watches you. Well, hey, geniuses, you've got no one to blame but yourselves this year; you had the opportunity to nominate the biggest-grossing picture of the year, which also had the precursors and reviews to back it up but was OMG A SUPERHERO MOVIE, but instead you nominated a film that made $3 million. Good job, that. I am hardly the biggest Dark Knight fan, but AMPAS screwed itself over when it comes to viewership this year; everyone's going to turn their TVs off after Best Supporting Actor. Plus now I'm mad cuz I only saw ONE Best Picture nominee, and that's likely how it will be until Oscar night. BLAAAAAH. Anyway.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Raise your hand if you thought The Reader had a snowball's chance in hell. Hey, Harvey, put your hand down in the back there, you don't count. I know I had it on my "potentials" list but if I had to rank them, it would have been #10 (1. Slumdog, 2. Button, 3. Frost/Nixon, 4. Dark Knight, 5. Milk, 6. Doubt, 7. Gran Torino, 8. Revolutionary Road, 9. Wall-E, 10. The Reader, or something like that). Damn. Though a few people have smartly pointed out that Minghella AND Pollack sympathy may have catapaulted The Reader higher. Looking at the comments about the nominations on the Carpetbagger over at the NYTimes, OMG, EVERYONE hated Benjamin Button with a passion. I think it's very very very love/hate and it won't be able to carve out a win. But hey, who knows.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Dark horse: Milk, I think Hollywood's pissed at Prop 8 for understandable reasons.
I predicted: Curious Case..., The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire 4/5

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Reaction: A round of applause for Daldry, who's gotten three Best Directing nominations from the three movies he's done. Damn. I like how his reaction to the nomination was something along the lines of "THANK YOU KATE WINSLET!!!!!!!!!!"
Will win: Danny Boyle.
Dark horse: David Fincher. I might be predicting him if apparently he wasn't a major asshole that everyone hated.
I predicted: Aronofsky, Boyle, Fincher, Howard, Nolan. 3/5

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Reaction: Not surprised Jenkins got in, but SHOCKED they left Eastwood out in the cold so harshly (Gran Torino got nothing, and Changeling very little). I'd say Penn's odds for winning racheted up with how much the Academy liked his film, but to be honest I don't know if they're going to be happy giving him a second Oscar when he clearly seems extraordinarily cavalier about the whole thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do that, but the Academy definitely won't appreciate it.
Will win: At this point I'll just say Mickey Rourke.
Dark horse: Penn.
I predicted: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke. 4/5

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Reaction: It's kind of awesome that the Academy, for once, said "FUCK YOU CATEGORY FRAUD!!!" and nominated someone where they were supposed to be in terms of category placement, at least according to what I've heard because I haven't seen the movie. If only they hadn't had a flagrant case of that every year since at least 2004 (Jamie Foxx in Collateral, Jake Gyllenhaal, Jennifer Hudson/Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Casey Affleck)... Anyway, I kind of feel more comfortable with saying Kate will win for The Reader in lead than saying Kate would have won for Revolutionary Road if she was also nominated in supporting for The Reader. Does that make sense? At any rate, GO KATE!!!! And yes, Melissa Leo climbed out of obscurity to snatch a nomination from Cate Blanchett in a movie that got 13 nominations. Girlfriend can be proud of that. Oh, and ladies and gentlemen... Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway! Puketastic. Hey, I think I'll go see that great opus of American film starring two incredibly talented young Oscar-nominated stars, Bride Wars. Again, puketastic.
Will win: ........it feels so weird to predict Kate Winslet.
Dark horse: Meryl's gonna win three someday, right? But hopefully not this one.
I predicted: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Winslet (Revolutionary Road). That's 3.5, right? :P

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Reaction: I wasn't expecting Revolutionary Road's only major Oscar nomination to be in Supporting Actor, hah, though I'm told his role was the kind of role the Academy usually loves. I'm not THAT shocked Patel was snubbed; I mean, clearly the Globes loved Slumdog too and he couldn't get in there either. Despite the general nose-in-the-air, middle-finger-brandished from AMPAS to The Dark Knight, I still think Heath's the closest thing to a lock we have this year.
Will win: Heath Ledger.
Dark horse: Don't think I need one, but Robert Downey Jr.
I predicted: Brolin, Downey Jr., Hoffman, Ledger, Patel. 4/5

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case...
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Reaction: Nobody was probably happier this morning to see Kate Winslet be moved to leading than these five ladies. It throws the race wide open. HI JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will win: Viola Davis. It just seems like the kind of performance the Academy will love, from what I've heard. Plus the film got multiple nominations, and this win seems the most likely.
Dark horse: Penelope Cruz. And it was a tough call, but if they couldn't nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a freaking Woody Allen movie, for Original Screenplay, maybe they didn't like her movie very much.
I predicted: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet. 4/5

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E

Reaction: It's surprising Happy-Go-Lucky's script got in, but not Hawkins. Oh well. I've seen bits and pieces of her performance, and I gotta say that though I'm reserving full judgement until I see the movie, yes it was an extremely vibrant performance, but also an INCREDIBLY ANNOYING one. I'm sad that Vicky Cristina Barcelona didn't get in - it was a terrific movie and script, and WOODY ALLEN! - but thrilled for In Bruges and Wall-E. Milk's script was good, but nothing special. Like the movie. It was very good and well-made, but nothing about it particularly pushed it into the stratosphere. I gotta say that Frozen River looks sooooo fucking boring. I'm sure it's good. But I have NOOOO DESIRE to see it!
Will win: Wall-E? Please? This is more than likely wishful thinking.
Dark horse: Milk
I predicted: In Bruges, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler. 3/5

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Reaction: Uh... sure? This seems like the only category without serious WTFery going on.
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Dark horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I predicted: Curious Case..., Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. 4/5

So what have we learned, kiddies? The Oscars go crazy sometimes, and even snub Clint Eastwood and Cate Blanchett! I guess "Never underestimate Harvey" is the new "Never underestimate Clint Eastwood", which was probably the new "Never underestimate Harvey" to begin with, so, you know, cyclical! Oh, and never use me to bet on your Oscar pool.

Final, ultimate Oscar predictions of craziness.

In EVERYTHING! So we can laugh at how I get like 4/100 things right.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case...
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case...
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Original Screenplay
In Bruges
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Art Direction
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Milk

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader

Best Costume Design
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Other Boleyn Girl
Revolutionary Road
Sex and the City

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Best Original Song
Bolt: "I Thought I Lost You"
Gran Torino: "Gran Torino"
Slumdog Millionaire: "Jai Ho"
Wall-E: "Down to Earth"
The Wrestler: "The Wrestler"
I badly want to predict "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" from Hamlet 2 but even I'm not that insane.

Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Best Sound Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E

Best Animated Film
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir

Best Foreign Film
The only category I'll skip out on because I don't even know what's eligible.




We'll see tomorrow morning.........

Possible Oscar nominees analysis.

Best Picture for right now. I'll be analyzing up to ten of the most likely candidates for whatever categories in their pros, cons, and whether I think they're "in" or not.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Big epic film and there's really nothing else this year like that (Australia failed miserably, after all). Got tons of precursors and it's sure to get a ton of technical nominations even if it misses out on the big prize. Buzzed for a long time a la Atonement.
Cons: The hype is moving away from it. Vocal dissenters. For a big epic romance, it's too cynical at times (well, I've heard that from people, I haven't actually seen the film... d'oh) and doesn't move people to tears. The fact that Cate Blanchett can't get any kind of nominations for it makes me wonder how really loved it is.
Do I think it's in? Yes, definitely. The hype's been too big for too long, and the box office is quite good. I think at this point it's a long shot for the win, but that's a totally different animal.

The Dark Knight
Pros: The Joker The Joker The Joker!!! Tremendous box office. Hype that it actually lived up to! Talked about all the time, even though it came out during the summer. It's already out on DVD. Lots of tech nods and it's doing well in precursors.
Cons: Superhero movie. It's a sequel. No Globes support.
Do I think it's in? Yes but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't get in. The Academy is snobby and old.

Doubt
Pros: Certain to get at least three Oscar nominations for acting and possibly/probably four. Meryl Streep and recent Academy favorite PSH. The play won both the Tony and the Pulitzer. Between this and the other "play" nominee, it has the sparklier cast and a bigger box office intake.
Cons: Most say it's much better on the stage. Lack of precursors. The other "play" nominee is directed by Ron Howard.
Do I think it's in? Um... hmm. I predicted it, but I'm not sure if I see people going for this AND Frost/Nixon. Maybe I'll do one final round of predictions later, or something. For now, I'll say no.

Frost/Nixon
Pros: Respected play and cast. Ron Howard. Biopic. Precursor awards.
Cons: A tiny box office and it probably plays better on stage.
Do I think it's in? Yes. It has no chance of winning, but the precursors are really strong for a film that was very weak at the box office.

Gran Torino
Pros: It's doing the best of all these movies around the time Oscar ballots are due. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Many people are talking about this suddenly, according to quite a few articles and... people I've actually overheard around talking about it.
Cons: I dunno how much I believe a bunch of articles, especially with virtually no precursor attention.
Do I think it's in? No, but it's probably one to watch out for.

Milk
Pros: Biopic. Hype that it lived up to. Timely, especially for California/Los Angeles. The Academy probably wants to apologize for Brokeback Mountain's loss though it really doesn't need to. Precursors. Sean Penn is a sure nominee.
Cons: SUPER GAY. I feel like the plethora of films in December took a lot of focus off this one.
Do I think it's in? Probably, but along with The Dark Knight I think it's the film that's most in danger.

The Reader
Pros: WWII/Holocaust movie, plus respected director Stephen Daldry.
Cons: Got pretty much ignored in all the December releases because its release was so small. The sex scenes.
Do I think it's in? No.

Revolutionary Road
Pros: Kate & Leo united and we all know what happened last time. Ample attention from the Globes. Buzzed for a long time a la Atonement.
Cons: Pretty much ignored in the precursors save the Globes. Not fantastic reviews. Tiny box office.
Do I think it's in? No. But I'll never let go, Jack. I'll never let go!

Slumdog Millionaire
Pros: Great reviews, everyone seems to love it from snobby reviewers to laymen. Good box office. Tons of precursor attention including a sweep at the Globes.
Cons: None I can really think of. I have noticed a few detractors online but none in real life to be honest.
Do I think it's in? Yes, it's about as much of a lock as you can get, and right now it's the film to beat.

Wall-E
Pros: Critically adored and a great box office. If '80s and '90s Disney could get a Best Picture nomination, why can't '00s Pixar?!?!
Cons: It's an animated movie.
Do I think it's in? No. But I wish it was ;_;

Oscar nominee predix, 1/10.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Next in line in order: Milk, Wall-E, Revolutionary Road

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Next in line: Aronofsky, Mendes

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Next in line: DiCaprio, Jenkins, Brolin, Bardem, Gleeson, Farrell (try not to laugh too hard about the last two)

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Next in line: Hawkins, Leo, Scott-Thomas
* Yes, I know Blanchett has little precursor attention. But it's the Oscars. And Benjamin Button will likely gain a gazillion nominations. Are you really gonna tell me they're not going to nominate Cate fucking Blanchett from a major Oscarbait movie? Really? Oh, but they'll nominate Melissa Leo in some movie 4 people saw over her. Uh huh. (This will probably happen, and then you can laugh at me)

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Next in line: Franco, Shannon

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Next in line: Henson and that's about it? One of the Rachel Getting Married ladies?

Best Original Screenplay
Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, Rachel Getting Married, In Bruges
Next in line: Happy-Go-Lucky, The Wrestler, Gran Torino

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, The Curious Case...
Next in line: Revolutionary Road, The Dark Knight

Golden Globe predix.

Y not rite? Warning, I'm so bad at predicting these things.

Best Picture, Drama
Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
Winner: Vicky Christina Barcelona
Alternate: Mamma Mia! GAG HURL VOM.

Best Actor, Drama
Winner: Sean Penn, Milk
Alternate: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Winner: Javier Bardem, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Alternate: Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey

Best Actress, Drama
Winner: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Alternate: Meryl Streep, Doubt

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Winner: umm... Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky ?
Alternate: any of the other nominees

Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Alternate: don't need one but Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Alternate: any of the other nominees, except maybe Amy Adams

Best Director
Winner: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Screenplay
Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Doubt

Foreign Language Film: I've Loved You So Long
Animated Film: Wall-E
Original Score: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Original Song: "The Wrestler" by Bruce Springsteen, from The Wrestler

TV Series, Drama: Mad Men
TV Series, Comedy: 30 Rock
Actor in a TV Series, Drama: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Actor in a TV Series, Musical/Comedy: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Actress in a TV Series, Drama: verrah verrah tricky to call. Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Actress in a TV Series, Musical/Comedy: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Supporting Actor: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother (please!!)
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Recount

Hey, Benjamin Button trailer!

You! Yes, you! Don't think I don't realize you're stealing the music from Love Actually!!!