Analysis part 2: Best Actor.

Josh Brolin, W.
Pros: Biopic. He had a good year this one and last.
Cons: No precursor attention and this movie has been ignored in general.
Do I think he's in? No. I just needed someone else to fill out this list, hah.

Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Leo! Kate made a big deal of showing how much she loved him, so maybe the Oscars will want to see them being so adorable together. You know he's getting an Oscar some day.
Cons: No precursor attention.
Do I think he's in? No, but only because it's a crowded year. I wouldn't be shocked if he DID get in though, to be honest.

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Pros: Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. Clint Eastwood. His movie is peaking at the right time.
Cons: Little precursor attention other than NBR. He didn't even get a Globe nod.
Do I think he's in? Yeah. When it comes to the Oscars, underestimate Eastwood at your own peril.

Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Pros: Globe winner. A performance that has many people talking about how good he was and how it's his comeback.
Cons: This film is destined to be ignored this awards season except in the weak Musical/Comedy category at the Globes. No precursors other than the Globes. The movie is probably way too dark for Oscar.
Do I think he's in? No, but I'd love it if AMPAS did nominate him. Nah, they wouldn't be that crazy... :(

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Pros: A decent amount of precursors including SAG. Apparently he's extremely good.
Cons: Who in what movie? He lacks the star power of some of his potential competitors such as Pitt, Farrell, Eastwood, and DiCaprio.
Do I think he's in? No, but because of the SAG nod I wouldn't be shocked.

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Pros: Plenty of precursors, including SAG and the Globe. He's the lead in a film that's sure to get attention. His performance was raved. He's in a biopic. He won the Tony for this role.
Cons: Lots of precursor nominations, but Penn and Rourke hog the wins. He's little-known in Hollywood compared to some other people that could be nominated.
Do I think he's in? Yes. The fact that he's in an Oscar movie cancels out the fact that nobody knows who he is.

Sean Penn, Milk
Pros: Tons of precursors (especially the important ones) and precursor wins. It's a biopic and he's OMG A GAY CHARACTER who is also extremely sympathetic. He's Sean Penn. His movie was well-reviewed and sure to get Oscar attention, and his reviews in particular were glowing.
Cons: Not gracious at award shows, and doesn't even have a very good track record when it comes to showing up. He just won in 2003.
Do I think he's in? Absolutely. It's about 50-50 for the Oscar win. Hey, if he wins, I'm sure I've said this like 15 times but whatever, can we go back to 2003 and give his Oscar there to Bill Murray? :(

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Brad Pitt might not be Oscar's superstar but he's a big star and the Oscars love big stars. Titular role in a sure nominee for Best Picture. Precursor nominations that matter.
Cons: His celebrity might detract from his acting. Penn and Rourke hog all the attention.
Do I think he's in? Probably.

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Pros: I've been told he's extremely sympathetic in his role and I can tell that from the trailer alone. Absolutely marvelous reviews. Lots of precursor nominations and many wins too. Globe winner. Comeback kid and Oscar fucking LOVES that.
Cons: Other than the Globe and Chicago, Sean Penn picked up most of the important precursor wins (NY, LA, I'm waiting for SAG).
Do I think he's in? See what I wrote for Penn but ignore everything from "hey, if he wins..." on. :P

Oh my God, Bride Wars.

STOP FUCKING ADVERTISING. If I have to see Anne Hathaway's stupid chipmunk face and hear her horribly stilted delivery of "your wedding will be huge, just like your ass at prom" one more time, I am going to throw a tissue at the screen. Violently!

I hope Clint Eastwood kicks that movie's ass.

Clint Eastwood is wearing a pink polo shirt on Ellen.

Really? Like, really? How non-Clint-Eastwood.

He does look good for approximately 503, though.

Uh, Gran Torino.

What is this movie about? Because I saw my first preview for it today and it basically looked like "OMG Clint Eastwood is racist toward the Asians!!!!!!"

Also, Academy, are you really gonna give Clint another Oscar? Really? Another?

You know what I wanna see?

Both Miracle at St. Anna and The Exchange (is it still called that?) up for Best Picture, and both Spike and Clint up for Best Director. To quote Mr. Halpert in "The Fight," well... FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

News from Cannes.

Blindness sucks.

Vicky Cristina Barcelona is good.

The Exchange (new name for Changeling, apparently) is awesome, and everyone that runs an Oscar site whines, "Not Clint Eastwood again waaahhhh!!!!!"

Part Two of the Unfortunate Oscar Losers

don't be ticked-off, Meryl. For once, you actually didn't deserve it.

The second part of this not-so-illustrious series will focus on the nominees who I think placed second in the actual Oscar voting. I think I know enough to include screenplays here, too. I don't know why this is really something I felt the need to blog, but...never be afraid to bore 'em, that's my motto.

2000
Best Picture: Traffic
Best Director: Ridley Scott, Gladiator
Best Actor: Tom Hanks, Cast Away
Best Actress: Juliette Binoche, Chocolat (Oscar LOOOOVED Chocolat. They did not LOOOOVE Requiem for a Dream.)
Best Supporting Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Hudson, Almost Famous (I'd love to see this vote tally.......)
Best Original Screenplay: Gladiator
Best Adapted Screenplay: Chocolat

2001
Best Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Best Director: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Best Actor: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Best Actress: Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom
Best Supporting Actor: Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Best Supporting Actress: Maggie Smith, Gosford Park (Jennifer probably got every vote though. Gross.)
Best Original Screenplay: Memento (I don't wanna hear that it's too out-there for Oscar. Oscar sometimes goes out there for Original Screenplay. They gave it to Talk to Her!!! And Eternal Sunshine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

2002
Best Picture: The Pianist
Best Director: Rob Marshall, Chicago
Best Actor: Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt (soooo hard to call. I think there was a huge push for Jack, and a huge push for Day-Lewis, and a huge push for Cage, and them splitting the votes caused Adrien to win. I'd love to see the vote tally on this one...)
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven
Best Supporting Actor: Paul Newman, Road to Perdition (see, it's decisions like this that do give me faith in the Academy. Even though Newman was great, ain't no one touchin' Cooper that year. And any sort of Oscar logic would deem that Paul would win...but he didn't.)
Best Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep, Adaptation. (love her here. But, see above. This is a stacked year for supporting actress, quality-wise...)
Best Original Screenplay: My Big Fat Greek Wedding (oh THANK YOU Talk to Her)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Hours

2003
Best Picture: Mystic River (Actually, this doesn't apply, because LOTR got every vote.)
Best Director: Clint Eastwood, Mystic River (actually, this doesn't apply, because Peter Jackson got every vote.)
Best Actor: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation (actually, this doesn't apply, because Sean Penn got about 90% of votes.)
Best Actress: Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give (actually, this doesn't apply, because Charlize Theron got every vote.)
Best Supporting Actor: Benicio del Toro, 21 Grams (actually, this doesn't apply, because Tim Robbins got every vote.)
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April (actually, this doesn't apply, because Renee Zellweger got every vote. Okay, I'll stop pretending I'm clever...2003 was really boring.)
Best Original Screenplay: Finding Nemo ?????
Best Adapted Screenplay: Mystic River

2004
Best Picture: The Aviator
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Aviator (I like how he won an Oscar, so now he is "a hack who sold out to the Hollywood system." Whaaaaa)
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator (much like 2003, though, Jamie got every vote.)
Best Actress: Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake (Jesus Christ please tell me it was not Annette.)
Best Supporting Actor: Thomas Haden Church, Sideways (this means Clive was third. Dammit.)
Best Supporting Actress: Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Best Original Screenplay: Hotel Rwanda
Best Adapted Screenplay: Million Dollar Baby (Paul Haggis!!! I'm the only one who loves you, but I do!)

2005
Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain (ooh lordy)
Best Director: uhh...George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Best Actor: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain (Phil got every vote)
Best Actress: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Dillon, Crash
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Best Original Screenplay: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Best Adapted Screenplay: uh Capote?

2006
Best Picture: Little Miss Sunshine (not Babel. Yeah, I know it wasn't nominated for Director or Editing. But Arkin won = way more support than we thought. Babel not winning jack shit but Score = less support than we thought.)
Best Director: Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima (I know, roughly around 25 people saw this movie. But the Academy LOVES CLINT. You know people voted for him without even seeing the movie...)
Best Actor: Peter O'Toole, Venus (On the other hand, I think 20 people saw this movie. But again, I'm sure people voted for him without seeing it)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada (I am roughly 98% sure that Helen Mirren got every single vote, however. Even those of the other nominees.)
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Best Supporting Actress: Rinko Kikuchi, Babel (thank youuuu Jenny!!!)
Best Original Screenplay: Babel
Best Adapted Screenplay: umm...Children of Men?

What'd we learn here? Basically, that 2003 was really boring and sometimes, the screenplay races are too. Um...right.

More perfection

I know, it's so cliche of me to like Jake Gyllenhaal. And yet...how can I say no? Mm mm good.

Maybe tomorrow I'll actually post something of substance. Then again, remember the #1 rule of blogging: Never be afraid to bore 'em. (Though if you're bored by that hotness up above I truly pity you)

Oh and happy birthday to the original badass, Clint Eastwood. He ain't too shabby of a director either (Mystic River is on TV somewhere tonight and it is a masterpiece. Seriously)

Best Director

Analyzing: Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
Pros: He's Clint Eastwood. The movie had more support than we thought. Flags of Our Fathers.
Cons: Not even nominated for the DGA. He may be Clint Eastwood, but will they really want to reward him for a third time? Film was small. No precursors. Not Martin Scorsese.
Any chance of winning?: I like how immediately after the nominations came out everyone was like "OMG WE UNDERESTIMATED HIM!!!!! HE'S TOTALLY WINNING AGAIN!!!" Anyway, he's, yeah, probably not.

Analyzing: Stephen Frears, The Queen
My rank among the nominees: 5th
Pros: The film is well-respected and the director is too. A couple of precursors.
Cons: Not Martin Scorsese. Hasn't gotten any attention at all.
Any chance of winning?: Nope.

Analyzing: Alejandro Gonzáles Iñárritu, Babel
My rank among the nominees: 4th
Pros: The film got a lot of Oscar support. It's the year of the "three amigos" (him, del Toro, and Cuarón).
Cons: Not Martin Scorsese. No precursors. Divisive directors (notice I didn't say auteurs) can sometimes get in, but hardly ever win.
Any chance of winning?: If they go Babel crazy, maaaybe...but it's very very doubtful.

Analyzing: Paul Greengrass, United 93
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
Pros: Glowing reviews. May be a way to reward the best-reviewed film of the year. Some precursor support.
Cons: Lone director. Not famous/acclaimed enough. No DGA nod. No Globe nod. The film has very little other Oscar support. Not Martin Scorsese.
Any chance of winning?: There's a chance, but it's a teeny little one...

Analyzing: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
My rank among the nominees: 1st
Pros: Arguably the best director working today, and inarguably an incredibly influential legend, has no Oscar, and the sense that his snubs were embarassing. Most precursor awards, including, especially, the DGA and Globe.
Cons: Scorsese v. Eastwood, Round 2 - remember what happened the first time? (Then again, Marty wasn't the extreme frontrunner for The Aviator like he is for The Departed.) The Departed only has one Oscar nomination - less support than we thought?
Any chance of winning?: Hell yes. It's finally Marty's year!!

Analyzing: Best Director as a whole
Who will win: Martin Scorsese! Now I can get the feeling they snubbed him for Gangs of New York or The Aviator because they were waiting for something like this. :D
Who should win: Martin Scorsese...not only because he deserves it after so many years but because of his utterly fantastic job on The Departed.
Unlucky 6th placer: It was probably the Little Miss Sunshine duo (or Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, but Little Miss Sunshine had far more support in the more majorish categories)...I still don't really get what people see in the directing of that film, but okay.
Snubbed: Of the movies that Oscar showed significant support to, Alfonso Cuarón for Children of Men, Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, and Guillermo del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth. For the movies they didn't, Sofia Coppola for Marie-Antoinette, Darren Aronofsky for The Fountain, Spike Lee for Inside Man, and Christopher Nolan for The Prestige.
Random cool fact about this category: Um...

wouldn't it be a lovely headline: "life is beautiful"

as you see from my "about me," i am too scared to post on others' blogs. there are a great number of reasons for this, but it basically all boils down to: i rarely agree with consensus, and i have no idea how to really defend myself. i thought brokeback mountain was little more than mediocre. crash totally deserved it. i think people subconciously had A grades reserved for inland empire without even seeing it. i think giving so much praise to emily blunt in the devil wears prada is like giving praise to a great pianist who comes out and then repeatedly plunks one note on the piano. i think poor hilary swank is adorable. i still enjoy renee zellweger. michelle pfeiffer has never deserved an oscar (there have been times when she was the best of the nominees, though); julianne moore only deserves one. i didn't think dreamgirls was a hideous disappointment. i love clint eastwood's work. while i rarely think the oscars get it 100% (or even 50%, or 25%, or sometimes even 10%) right, they don't really embarass themselves all that often. i don't pat myself on the back for being off-consensus either.

however, i can relate to my fellow bloggers on one issue: sometimes, i'll feel, you know, blah. and then i'll put on a rufus wainwright song - "cigarettes and chocolate milk" is a for-the-time favorite - and i'll just feel better because the world allows for that kind of genius to exist.