Analyzing: Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
Pros: He's Clint Eastwood. The movie had more support than we thought. Flags of Our Fathers.
Cons: Not even nominated for the DGA. He may be Clint Eastwood, but will they really want to reward him for a third time? Film was small. No precursors. Not Martin Scorsese.
Any chance of winning?: I like how immediately after the nominations came out everyone was like "OMG WE UNDERESTIMATED HIM!!!!! HE'S TOTALLY WINNING AGAIN!!!" Anyway, he's, yeah, probably not.
Analyzing: Stephen Frears, The Queen
My rank among the nominees: 5th
Pros: The film is well-respected and the director is too. A couple of precursors.
Cons: Not Martin Scorsese. Hasn't gotten any attention at all.
Any chance of winning?: Nope.
Analyzing: Alejandro Gonzáles Iñárritu, Babel
My rank among the nominees: 4th
Pros: The film got a lot of Oscar support. It's the year of the "three amigos" (him, del Toro, and Cuarón).
Cons: Not Martin Scorsese. No precursors. Divisive directors (notice I didn't say auteurs) can sometimes get in, but hardly ever win.
Any chance of winning?: If they go Babel crazy, maaaybe...but it's very very doubtful.
Analyzing: Paul Greengrass, United 93
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
Pros: Glowing reviews. May be a way to reward the best-reviewed film of the year. Some precursor support.
Cons: Lone director. Not famous/acclaimed enough. No DGA nod. No Globe nod. The film has very little other Oscar support. Not Martin Scorsese.
Any chance of winning?: There's a chance, but it's a teeny little one...
Analyzing: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
My rank among the nominees: 1st
Pros: Arguably the best director working today, and inarguably an incredibly influential legend, has no Oscar, and the sense that his snubs were embarassing. Most precursor awards, including, especially, the DGA and Globe.
Cons: Scorsese v. Eastwood, Round 2 - remember what happened the first time? (Then again, Marty wasn't the extreme frontrunner for The Aviator like he is for The Departed.) The Departed only has one Oscar nomination - less support than we thought?
Any chance of winning?: Hell yes. It's finally Marty's year!!
Analyzing: Best Director as a whole
Who will win: Martin Scorsese! Now I can get the feeling they snubbed him for Gangs of New York or The Aviator because they were waiting for something like this. :D
Who should win: Martin Scorsese...not only because he deserves it after so many years but because of his utterly fantastic job on The Departed.
Unlucky 6th placer: It was probably the Little Miss Sunshine duo (or Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, but Little Miss Sunshine had far more support in the more majorish categories)...I still don't really get what people see in the directing of that film, but okay.
Snubbed: Of the movies that Oscar showed significant support to, Alfonso Cuarón for Children of Men, Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, and Guillermo del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth. For the movies they didn't, Sofia Coppola for Marie-Antoinette, Darren Aronofsky for The Fountain, Spike Lee for Inside Man, and Christopher Nolan for The Prestige.
Random cool fact about this category: Um...
