Analyzing: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd he get nominated?: He's got a good role (drug addict! cursin' grandpa!) in an Oscar-supported film.
Pros: A very respected actor who never won an Oscar. AMPAS may go Little Miss Sunshine-crazy.
Cons: Not the frontrunner. I'm still not exactly sure what the hell made him better than Carell or Kinnear, and my guess is many others aren't either. No precursor awards.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yes, but it's ridiculous that people are predicting him now just because he won the BAFTA. Jake Gyllenhaal won the BAFTA last year when he was clearly the best in his category, and he still couldn't win at the Oscars.
Analyzing: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd he get nominated: Critical approval + Kate Winslet's pre-ordained place in the Best Actress race
Pros: Comeback kid. The fact that he could get nominated for this role (and virtually unseen movie) alone is telling. Critical raves. Critics awards.
Cons: Not the frontrunner at all - many weren't even sure if he'd get in. Movie is tiny. Role is (really) unsympathetic.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Only if there's some crazy vote splitting.
Analyzing: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd he get nominated: Baity role! Man-tears!
Pros: The kind of role AMPAS loves. Critics awards, including NBR. The movie clearly had more support from AMPAS than we thought.
Cons: Performance often dismissed as just "running and screaming" (it's not, but it's the least of the nominees anyway). Most didn't think he was going to even be nominated.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Again, only if there's some crazy vote splitting.
Analyzing: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd he get nominated: Comeback kid in a flashy, scene-stealing role in a Best Picture frontrunner (well, we all thought it was, anyway.)!
Pros: See "how'd he get nominated." Scene-stealing = shades of Catherine Zeta-Jones in Chicago. Relatively baity role (drug addict!). Globe, SAG, and critics awards.
Cons: Backlash - both against him and Dreamgirls in general. Norbit...though it made an assload of money so it wasn't really an embarassment.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yup. A big one, too.
Analyzing: Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd he get nominated: "Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe fuck yourself."
Pros: Support for The Departed. That dialogue! Comeback kid, sorta.
Cons: Um, there's no way he was the best performance in The Departed. He was a surprise nominee - most of these don't win. Still the perception of him as "Marky Mark."
Basically, any chance of winning?: If there's vote splitting between Arkin and Murphy, he's the most likely to benefit (more than Hounsou or Haley). However, it's not all that likely...but it is likely. I guess.
Analyzing: Best Supporting Actor as a whole
Who will win: I'm predicting Eddie Murphy, but Alan Arkin could get this too. And a lot of people are predicting Mark Wahlberg as well, but I just don't see it...
Who should win: For me, Eddie is the true standout in this category.
Unlucky 6th placer: Jack Nicholson for The Departed, but I hardly think he cried to himself about it.
Snubbed: With such an up-in-the-air category, I'm kinda ticked by the fact that boring performances like Arkin and Hounsou got in here. I would have preferred, out of anyone with any hype at all, Sheen in The Queen, Carell in Little Miss Sunshine (the best member of the cast is the only one without any sort of awards nomination? ridiculous), Affleck in Hollywoodland, the aforementioned Nicholson, and even the poor neglected Baldwin in the same movie. Among those with no chance, I enjoyed Caine in both his outings this year (Children of Men and The Prestige), Doug Jones and Sergio Lopez in Pan's Labyrinth, and Robert Downey Jr. in A Scanner Darkly. But, of course, my heart belongs to Clive Owen in Inside Man.
Random cool fact about this category: Um... Djimon Hounsou and Mark Wahlberg are really hot?
