I'm on a roll! Best Supporting Actor

Analyzing: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd he get nominated?: He's got a good role (drug addict! cursin' grandpa!) in an Oscar-supported film.
Pros: A very respected actor who never won an Oscar. AMPAS may go Little Miss Sunshine-crazy.
Cons: Not the frontrunner. I'm still not exactly sure what the hell made him better than Carell or Kinnear, and my guess is many others aren't either. No precursor awards.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yes, but it's ridiculous that people are predicting him now just because he won the BAFTA. Jake Gyllenhaal won the BAFTA last year when he was clearly the best in his category, and he still couldn't win at the Oscars.

Analyzing: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd he get nominated: Critical approval + Kate Winslet's pre-ordained place in the Best Actress race
Pros: Comeback kid. The fact that he could get nominated for this role (and virtually unseen movie) alone is telling. Critical raves. Critics awards.
Cons: Not the frontrunner at all - many weren't even sure if he'd get in. Movie is tiny. Role is (really) unsympathetic.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Only if there's some crazy vote splitting.

Analyzing: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd he get nominated: Baity role! Man-tears!
Pros: The kind of role AMPAS loves. Critics awards, including NBR. The movie clearly had more support from AMPAS than we thought.
Cons: Performance often dismissed as just "running and screaming" (it's not, but it's the least of the nominees anyway). Most didn't think he was going to even be nominated.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Again, only if there's some crazy vote splitting.

Analyzing: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd he get nominated: Comeback kid in a flashy, scene-stealing role in a Best Picture frontrunner (well, we all thought it was, anyway.)!
Pros: See "how'd he get nominated." Scene-stealing = shades of Catherine Zeta-Jones in Chicago. Relatively baity role (drug addict!). Globe, SAG, and critics awards.
Cons: Backlash - both against him and Dreamgirls in general. Norbit...though it made an assload of money so it wasn't really an embarassment.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yup. A big one, too.

Analyzing: Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd he get nominated: "Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe fuck yourself."
Pros: Support for The Departed. That dialogue! Comeback kid, sorta.
Cons: Um, there's no way he was the best performance in The Departed. He was a surprise nominee - most of these don't win. Still the perception of him as "Marky Mark."
Basically, any chance of winning?: If there's vote splitting between Arkin and Murphy, he's the most likely to benefit (more than Hounsou or Haley). However, it's not all that likely...but it is likely. I guess.

Analyzing: Best Supporting Actor as a whole
Who will win: I'm predicting Eddie Murphy, but Alan Arkin could get this too. And a lot of people are predicting Mark Wahlberg as well, but I just don't see it...
Who should win: For me, Eddie is the true standout in this category.
Unlucky 6th placer: Jack Nicholson for The Departed, but I hardly think he cried to himself about it.
Snubbed: With such an up-in-the-air category, I'm kinda ticked by the fact that boring performances like Arkin and Hounsou got in here. I would have preferred, out of anyone with any hype at all, Sheen in The Queen, Carell in Little Miss Sunshine (the best member of the cast is the only one without any sort of awards nomination? ridiculous), Affleck in Hollywoodland, the aforementioned Nicholson, and even the poor neglected Baldwin in the same movie. Among those with no chance, I enjoyed Caine in both his outings this year (Children of Men and The Prestige), Doug Jones and Sergio Lopez in Pan's Labyrinth, and Robert Downey Jr. in A Scanner Darkly. But, of course, my heart belongs to Clive Owen in Inside Man.
Random cool fact about this category: Um... Djimon Hounsou and Mark Wahlberg are really hot?

moving on to Best Actor

Analyzing: Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd he get nominated?: Baity role in a "message" film
Pros: He's got The Departed helping him. He's a huge celebrity - and AMPAS does love famous.
Cons: There is no way this performance is as good as his in The Departed (I fully believe that Leo in The Departed got more votes than Ryan Gosling at least). No precursors.
Basically, any chance of winning?: No. If it was his Departed performance, though...

Analyzing: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd he get nominated: Purely because of his amazing performance - the film is tiny and came out a while ago, and I don't remember any great FYC campaign for it.
Pros: If enough people saw the movie to vote for him here, how can they not say it's one of the best performances of the year? Got a bunch of "breakthrough" awards.
Cons: Movie was ridiculously small.
Basically, any chance of winning?: No...but as I said, if enough people saw the film to vote for him for a nomination, who's to say they're not going to vote for him for the win? It's still Whitaker's.

Analyzing: Peter O'Toole, Venus
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd he get nominated: Peter O'Toole.
Pros: Peter O'Toole...has yet to win a competitive Oscar. Though he may not have the critics or precursors, think 1986 with Bob Hoskins in Mona Lisa and Paul Newman in The Color of Money.
Cons: No precursors - all taken by Forest Whitaker, his main competitor. I know he's not feeling well and all, but his continued absence at every awards show simply doesn't look good. Film was teeeeeny.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yes, and a bigger chance than most people think... but I still believe this will go to Whitaker. Then again, after predicting O'Toole again and again and again, $10 says here, where it really counts, I am wrong. =/

Analyzing: Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd he get nominated: Baity role - when comedians get serious they often love it
Pros: The film made money, probably due to him. Like Leo, super-famous and well-liked.
Cons: Beyond the nomination, he's gotten no traction. No precursors.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Probably not unless Whitaker and O'Toole are really close and split votes.

Analyzing: Forest Whitaker, Last King of Scotland
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd he get nominated: Acclaimed biopic role
Pros: Virtually every precursor award. Critics have been pushing him forever. Sense of past snubs (maybe).
Cons: It's his first nomination, not his eighth. Super awkward acceptance speeches - the guy's shy.
Basically, any chance of winning?: You bet your ass.

Analyzing: Best Actor as a whole
Who will win: Forest Whitaker. It is hard to argue with every precursor award, and the Academy is not as sentimental as they were in the 1980s. Still, I will not be shocked at all if they call Peter O'Toole's name. If his film were bigger, I think he'd be as big a lock as Whitaker here.
Who should win: Ryan Gosling, but Forest was superb as well.
Unlucky sixth placer: As I said, I think Leo in The Departed got more votes than Ryan...but I guess Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat.
Should have been nominated: People with Oscar traction - Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed. People with no Oscar traction - Hugh Jackman in The Fountain, Clive Owen in Children of Men, Daniel Craig in Casino Royale, Patrick Wilson in Little Children, Heath Ledger in Candy, Jude Law in Breaking and Entering, Ken Watanabe in Letters from Iwo Jima, etc...
Random cool fact: This is the first time in um...a really long time (I think since 1927/1928) that no Best Actor nominees come from Best Picture nominees.