well, I don't have any homework (and clearly no dates HA), and all my friends do, so...
(sorry about the lack of "tags" for this post. blogger was being silly)
Analyzing: Adriana Barraza, Babel
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd she get nominated: Great reviews/performance + Babel support
Pros: Support for Babel. Sympathetic role.
Cons: Not famous. Not Jennifer Hudson. Vote splitting with Rinko.
Basically, does she have a chance of winning?: No.
Analyzing: Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd she get nominated: Cate Blanchett
Pros: The movie has support. Juicy undebtably lead role. Critics awards.
Cons: Just won here 2 years ago (undeservedly, may I add bitchily). Not Jennifer Hudson.
Basically, does she have a chance of winning?: A teeny chance, but no, not really.
Analyzing: Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd she get nominated: Adorable, easy-to-support role in a Best Picture contender.
Pros: See "how'd she get nominated." People hate voting against cute little kids.
Cons: Not Jennifer Hudson. No critics awards other than breakthrough stuff. Couldn't even get nominated at the Globes.
Basically, does she have a chance of winning?: Yes, but it's not very big...
Analyzing: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd she get nominated: "And I Am Telling You..."
Pros: See "how'd she get nominated." Dreamgirls support - you know they did like it (but not as much as we all thought). Tremendous audience reaction to her (when I saw it, the person behind me kept going "UH HUH GIRL"). American Idol reject - a triumph over failure. Hyperbolic reviews and a virtual year of hype. The most critics awards in this category.
Cons: Backlash. That ridiculous question, "since when is good singing good acting?" (Since musical theater has been around and people have had to interpret roles, idiots)
Basically, does she have a chance of winning?: Ummm...no duh
Analyzing: Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd she get nominated: Baity role
Pros: Baity role. Babel support. Great reviews/critical support. Critics awards.
Cons: Not Jennifer Hudson. Vote splitting with Barraza.
Basically, does she have a chance of winning?: Eh. Teeny but not really.
Analyzing: Best Supporting Actress as a whole
Who will win: Jennifer Hudson. Um...yeah.
Who should win: Jennifer. Now is when I quote the people sitting behind me at Dreamgirls and say UH HUH GIRL.
Unlucky sixth placer: Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada. Hahahahhahaaaaa!!!
Snubbed: I would have loved to see Catherine O'Hara here for For Your Consideration and Toni Collette for Little Miss Sunshine, out of those with any hype/precursors at all. As far as those without any, I loved Mia Kirshner in The Black Dahlia, Shareeka Epps in Half Nelson, Claire Hope-Ashitey in Children of Men, Kerry Washington in Last King of Scotland, Emma Thompson in Stranger than Fiction (yeah her hype died.), Vera Farmiga in Running Scared...
Random cool fact about this category: Well, uh, it has no Emily Blunt in it. That's pretty awesome.
