I'm going to start talking in depth about the Oscars in the categories I care about (this basically means I don't have to guess shit like Documentary Short and Sound FX and stuff). Yay. Right now, I'll talk about Best Picture...
Analyzing: Babel
My grade: B-
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: It's a modern message film, carrying over from last year's trend.
Pros: People have been calling it "international Crash" and they sure as hell liked the one from last year. It won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. The people who love it really love it. It's got the most nominations out of all the films nominated for Best Picture.
Cons: The people who hate it really hate it. Though it's not impossible, I can't see it winning any of its other categories. Outside of the Globe, no major precursor awards.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Its hype seems to have gone down since the Globes...it seems to have turned into The Departed vs. Little Miss Sunshine. Still, it's not implausible.
Analyzing: The Departed
My grade: A+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: A massive hit, both with audiences and critics.
Pros: Like I said, a big hit with both audiences and critics. Made a ton of money.
Cons: Might be too violent for the Academy. Scorsese doesn't exactly have a great track record with them. Mark Wahlberg is its only acting nominee = less support than we think?
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yes.
Analyzing: Letters from Iwo Jima
My grade: A-
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Clint Eastwood.
Pros: Clint Eastwood. WWII drama. Flags of Our Fathers. Extremely critically acclaimed.
Cons: It's subtitled and made very little money.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Probably not. Eastwood is enough to get it in, but probably not enough to give it the win, like Eastwood's last superb movie, Mystic River.
Analyzing: Little Miss Sunshine
My grade: B+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Feel-good indie underdog.
Pros: It's hard to root against it, and it's got really enthusiastic fans.
Cons: It's got really enthusiastic and overly vicious haters as well. Sideways was a feel-good indie underdog too, and it got lost in Eastwood v. Scorsese, Round 1 hmmm. May have won the PGA and SAG, but it couldn't win the bigger award - the Golden Globe. Summer release.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yup, and a pretty high one, too. People really like this movie.
Analyzing: The Queen
My grade: C/C+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Helen Mirren.
Pros: Helen Mirren. Smart, critically-acclaimed contemporary drama. Oscar does love their Brits.
Cons: If Little Miss Sunshine is the Sideways of this year, then The Queen is its Capote...
Basically, any chance of winning?: Probably not, but if there's some severe vote-splitting...
Analyzing: Best Picture as a whole
Who will win: It's tough to call...but right now, I guess I'll go for Little Miss Sunshine. If last year taught us anything, it's that, well, anything can happen.
Who should win: The Departed, but it, along with Letters from Iwo Jima and Little Miss Sunshine, are excellent films.
Unlucky 6th placer: Poor Dreamgirls. Not only was I predicting it to get in, once it got in, I was going to predict it to win. Ooops.
Should have been nominated: Among things the Oscars clearly liked, Dreamgirls, Children of Men, and Pan's Labyrinth. Among things they probably didn't, Volver, Marie-Antoinette, The Fountain, Borat, and Inside Man, just to name a few films.
Random cool fact about this category: The Queen is the shortest nominee in length and The Departed is the longest...but when watching them, I felt exactly the opposite. =/
Oh, and happy Valentine's Day! Watch Love Actually.
