Okay, so there's a post: "If Marion Cotillard's film was out last year, would she have beaten Helen Mirren?" And some people are answering "yes," even going so far as to say "definitely."
WHAT.
Did you people not learn that when the question is would any performance in history win at the Oscars vs. Helen Mirren in The Queen, the answer will, 95% of the time, be definitely not? This is especially true of upset wins. By unknown actresses. In foreign language films. With mediocre reviews. Against legendary actresses. Without Oscars. Is that enough? Should I keep going? (Why are you the way that you are?)
Showing posts with label the queen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the queen. Show all posts
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Thursday, July 26, 2007
I couldn't ask for a better trio.
Happy birthday to the queen...
The king of the '90s, who I may still forgive if he ever decides to do any good movies again...
...and of course, one of my favorite TV characters of all time, ARI GOLD!
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Best Director
Analyzing: Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
Pros: He's Clint Eastwood. The movie had more support than we thought. Flags of Our Fathers.
Cons: Not even nominated for the DGA. He may be Clint Eastwood, but will they really want to reward him for a third time? Film was small. No precursors. Not Martin Scorsese.
Any chance of winning?: I like how immediately after the nominations came out everyone was like "OMG WE UNDERESTIMATED HIM!!!!! HE'S TOTALLY WINNING AGAIN!!!" Anyway, he's, yeah, probably not.
Analyzing: Stephen Frears, The Queen
My rank among the nominees: 5th
Pros: The film is well-respected and the director is too. A couple of precursors.
Cons: Not Martin Scorsese. Hasn't gotten any attention at all.
Any chance of winning?: Nope.
Analyzing: Alejandro Gonzáles Iñárritu, Babel
My rank among the nominees: 4th
Pros: The film got a lot of Oscar support. It's the year of the "three amigos" (him, del Toro, and Cuarón).
Cons: Not Martin Scorsese. No precursors. Divisive directors (notice I didn't say auteurs) can sometimes get in, but hardly ever win.
Any chance of winning?: If they go Babel crazy, maaaybe...but it's very very doubtful.
Analyzing: Paul Greengrass, United 93
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
Pros: Glowing reviews. May be a way to reward the best-reviewed film of the year. Some precursor support.
Cons: Lone director. Not famous/acclaimed enough. No DGA nod. No Globe nod. The film has very little other Oscar support. Not Martin Scorsese.
Any chance of winning?: There's a chance, but it's a teeny little one...
Analyzing: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
My rank among the nominees: 1st
Pros: Arguably the best director working today, and inarguably an incredibly influential legend, has no Oscar, and the sense that his snubs were embarassing. Most precursor awards, including, especially, the DGA and Globe.
Cons: Scorsese v. Eastwood, Round 2 - remember what happened the first time? (Then again, Marty wasn't the extreme frontrunner for The Aviator like he is for The Departed.) The Departed only has one Oscar nomination - less support than we thought?
Any chance of winning?: Hell yes. It's finally Marty's year!!
Analyzing: Best Director as a whole
Who will win: Martin Scorsese! Now I can get the feeling they snubbed him for Gangs of New York or The Aviator because they were waiting for something like this. :D
Who should win: Martin Scorsese...not only because he deserves it after so many years but because of his utterly fantastic job on The Departed.
Unlucky 6th placer: It was probably the Little Miss Sunshine duo (or Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, but Little Miss Sunshine had far more support in the more majorish categories)...I still don't really get what people see in the directing of that film, but okay.
Snubbed: Of the movies that Oscar showed significant support to, Alfonso Cuarón for Children of Men, Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, and Guillermo del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth. For the movies they didn't, Sofia Coppola for Marie-Antoinette, Darren Aronofsky for The Fountain, Spike Lee for Inside Man, and Christopher Nolan for The Prestige.
Random cool fact about this category: Um...
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
Pros: He's Clint Eastwood. The movie had more support than we thought. Flags of Our Fathers.
Cons: Not even nominated for the DGA. He may be Clint Eastwood, but will they really want to reward him for a third time? Film was small. No precursors. Not Martin Scorsese.
Any chance of winning?: I like how immediately after the nominations came out everyone was like "OMG WE UNDERESTIMATED HIM!!!!! HE'S TOTALLY WINNING AGAIN!!!" Anyway, he's, yeah, probably not.
Analyzing: Stephen Frears, The Queen
My rank among the nominees: 5th
Pros: The film is well-respected and the director is too. A couple of precursors.
Cons: Not Martin Scorsese. Hasn't gotten any attention at all.
Any chance of winning?: Nope.
Analyzing: Alejandro Gonzáles Iñárritu, Babel
My rank among the nominees: 4th
Pros: The film got a lot of Oscar support. It's the year of the "three amigos" (him, del Toro, and Cuarón).
Cons: Not Martin Scorsese. No precursors. Divisive directors (notice I didn't say auteurs) can sometimes get in, but hardly ever win.
Any chance of winning?: If they go Babel crazy, maaaybe...but it's very very doubtful.
Analyzing: Paul Greengrass, United 93
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
Pros: Glowing reviews. May be a way to reward the best-reviewed film of the year. Some precursor support.
Cons: Lone director. Not famous/acclaimed enough. No DGA nod. No Globe nod. The film has very little other Oscar support. Not Martin Scorsese.
Any chance of winning?: There's a chance, but it's a teeny little one...
Analyzing: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
My rank among the nominees: 1st
Pros: Arguably the best director working today, and inarguably an incredibly influential legend, has no Oscar, and the sense that his snubs were embarassing. Most precursor awards, including, especially, the DGA and Globe.
Cons: Scorsese v. Eastwood, Round 2 - remember what happened the first time? (Then again, Marty wasn't the extreme frontrunner for The Aviator like he is for The Departed.) The Departed only has one Oscar nomination - less support than we thought?
Any chance of winning?: Hell yes. It's finally Marty's year!!
Analyzing: Best Director as a whole
Who will win: Martin Scorsese! Now I can get the feeling they snubbed him for Gangs of New York or The Aviator because they were waiting for something like this. :D
Who should win: Martin Scorsese...not only because he deserves it after so many years but because of his utterly fantastic job on The Departed.
Unlucky 6th placer: It was probably the Little Miss Sunshine duo (or Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, but Little Miss Sunshine had far more support in the more majorish categories)...I still don't really get what people see in the directing of that film, but okay.
Snubbed: Of the movies that Oscar showed significant support to, Alfonso Cuarón for Children of Men, Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, and Guillermo del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth. For the movies they didn't, Sofia Coppola for Marie-Antoinette, Darren Aronofsky for The Fountain, Spike Lee for Inside Man, and Christopher Nolan for The Prestige.
Random cool fact about this category: Um...
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Best Actress
Analyzing: Penelope Cruz, Volver
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd she get nominated?: Hype building for almost a year combined with the result.
Pros: The fact that she could get in with a subtitled film that didn't get other Academy support says a lot. She's hot.
Cons: They clearly didn't love the film since it was snubbed like all hell. Subtitled. "Oscar winner, Penelope Cruz?" Not Helen Mirren.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. She's coming in dead last here.
Analyzing: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd she get nominated?: She's Judi Dench.
Pros: Judi Dench. Amazing performance backed up by reviews. Film got support from nominations (Blanchett, Score, Adapted Screenplay).
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. Already has an Oscar.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope.
Analyzing: Helen Mirren, The Queen
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd she get nominated?: A talented actress with no Oscar playing a real-life famous person in a Best Picture nominee prestige pic, backed up by glowing reviews?!
Pros: Virtually every damn critics award. Everyone loves her and recognizes her amazing talent but she's Oscarless. She's in a biopic. Rave, rave, rave reviews.
Cons: Um...backlash? This would have been a bigger factor already, like with Julianne Moore in 2002 with Far from Heaven. A whole bunch of critics awards, and then the Globes came and BAM! Nicole took over.
Basically, any chance of winning?: All the other nominees here have "not Helen Mirren" in their cons section for a reason.
Analyzing: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd she get nominated?: Meryl effin' Streep
Pros: Everyone wants to see Meryl win another Oscar...she hasn't since '83! The only American in this category. People have been talking about her non-stop since this movie came out.
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. The movie is fluffy and didn't have much other Oscar support (if she got Blunt in with her, she might have a slightly better chance).
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. But she's coming in (a distant) second.
Analyzing: Kate Winslet, Little Children
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd she get nominated?: Kate Winslet. 5 nominations at 31?! They clearly do like her.
Pros: As I just said, 5 nominations must mean they like her, especially in stuff like Little Children which played in like one teeny little hidden theater in LA for half a week and certainly didn't get out there with an FYC campaign. At the beginning of this year, she was considered the frontrunner.
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. Teensy tiny little film.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. Not Helen Mirren.
Analyzing: Best Actress as a whole
Who will win: OH GOD THIS IS SO HARD. Um...just kidding. Helen Mirren has this all sewn (sown?) up.
Who should win: Okay, I know I ranked these ladies, but it might as well be a tie. Almost always, the categories have at least one nominee that makes me go "eh" or "ugh!" Here, not at all. They might as well all be the winners! It's just a shame that in such an amazing year for actresses, the same name kept coming up.
Unlucky sixth placer: Probably Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby...but who can tell with this year? Nobody else ever got mentioned besides these five. Ahaaaa.
Snubbed: Many people. Among the most notable/ones I liked the most, Naomi Watts in The Painted Veil, Cate Blanchett in The Good German, Laura Dern in Inland Empire, and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby.
Random cool fact about this category: Meryl Streep has the most nominations ever and Kate Winslet has the most nominations ever for someone her age.
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd she get nominated?: Hype building for almost a year combined with the result.
Pros: The fact that she could get in with a subtitled film that didn't get other Academy support says a lot. She's hot.
Cons: They clearly didn't love the film since it was snubbed like all hell. Subtitled. "Oscar winner, Penelope Cruz?" Not Helen Mirren.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. She's coming in dead last here.
Analyzing: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd she get nominated?: She's Judi Dench.
Pros: Judi Dench. Amazing performance backed up by reviews. Film got support from nominations (Blanchett, Score, Adapted Screenplay).
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. Already has an Oscar.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope.
Analyzing: Helen Mirren, The Queen
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd she get nominated?: A talented actress with no Oscar playing a real-life famous person in a Best Picture nominee prestige pic, backed up by glowing reviews?!
Pros: Virtually every damn critics award. Everyone loves her and recognizes her amazing talent but she's Oscarless. She's in a biopic. Rave, rave, rave reviews.
Cons: Um...backlash? This would have been a bigger factor already, like with Julianne Moore in 2002 with Far from Heaven. A whole bunch of critics awards, and then the Globes came and BAM! Nicole took over.
Basically, any chance of winning?: All the other nominees here have "not Helen Mirren" in their cons section for a reason.
Analyzing: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd she get nominated?: Meryl effin' Streep
Pros: Everyone wants to see Meryl win another Oscar...she hasn't since '83! The only American in this category. People have been talking about her non-stop since this movie came out.
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. The movie is fluffy and didn't have much other Oscar support (if she got Blunt in with her, she might have a slightly better chance).
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. But she's coming in (a distant) second.
Analyzing: Kate Winslet, Little Children
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd she get nominated?: Kate Winslet. 5 nominations at 31?! They clearly do like her.
Pros: As I just said, 5 nominations must mean they like her, especially in stuff like Little Children which played in like one teeny little hidden theater in LA for half a week and certainly didn't get out there with an FYC campaign. At the beginning of this year, she was considered the frontrunner.
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. Teensy tiny little film.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. Not Helen Mirren.
Analyzing: Best Actress as a whole
Who will win: OH GOD THIS IS SO HARD. Um...just kidding. Helen Mirren has this all sewn (sown?) up.
Who should win: Okay, I know I ranked these ladies, but it might as well be a tie. Almost always, the categories have at least one nominee that makes me go "eh" or "ugh!" Here, not at all. They might as well all be the winners! It's just a shame that in such an amazing year for actresses, the same name kept coming up.
Unlucky sixth placer: Probably Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby...but who can tell with this year? Nobody else ever got mentioned besides these five. Ahaaaa.
Snubbed: Many people. Among the most notable/ones I liked the most, Naomi Watts in The Painted Veil, Cate Blanchett in The Good German, Laura Dern in Inland Empire, and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby.
Random cool fact about this category: Meryl Streep has the most nominations ever and Kate Winslet has the most nominations ever for someone her age.
oscars, again
I'm going to start talking in depth about the Oscars in the categories I care about (this basically means I don't have to guess shit like Documentary Short and Sound FX and stuff). Yay. Right now, I'll talk about Best Picture...
Analyzing: Babel
My grade: B-
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: It's a modern message film, carrying over from last year's trend.
Pros: People have been calling it "international Crash" and they sure as hell liked the one from last year. It won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. The people who love it really love it. It's got the most nominations out of all the films nominated for Best Picture.
Cons: The people who hate it really hate it. Though it's not impossible, I can't see it winning any of its other categories. Outside of the Globe, no major precursor awards.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Its hype seems to have gone down since the Globes...it seems to have turned into The Departed vs. Little Miss Sunshine. Still, it's not implausible.
Analyzing: The Departed
My grade: A+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: A massive hit, both with audiences and critics.
Pros: Like I said, a big hit with both audiences and critics. Made a ton of money.
Cons: Might be too violent for the Academy. Scorsese doesn't exactly have a great track record with them. Mark Wahlberg is its only acting nominee = less support than we think?
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yes.
Analyzing: Letters from Iwo Jima
My grade: A-
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Clint Eastwood.
Pros: Clint Eastwood. WWII drama. Flags of Our Fathers. Extremely critically acclaimed.
Cons: It's subtitled and made very little money.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Probably not. Eastwood is enough to get it in, but probably not enough to give it the win, like Eastwood's last superb movie, Mystic River.
Analyzing: Little Miss Sunshine
My grade: B+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Feel-good indie underdog.
Pros: It's hard to root against it, and it's got really enthusiastic fans.
Cons: It's got really enthusiastic and overly vicious haters as well. Sideways was a feel-good indie underdog too, and it got lost in Eastwood v. Scorsese, Round 1 hmmm. May have won the PGA and SAG, but it couldn't win the bigger award - the Golden Globe. Summer release.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yup, and a pretty high one, too. People really like this movie.
Analyzing: The Queen
My grade: C/C+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Helen Mirren.
Pros: Helen Mirren. Smart, critically-acclaimed contemporary drama. Oscar does love their Brits.
Cons: If Little Miss Sunshine is the Sideways of this year, then The Queen is its Capote...
Basically, any chance of winning?: Probably not, but if there's some severe vote-splitting...
Analyzing: Best Picture as a whole
Who will win: It's tough to call...but right now, I guess I'll go for Little Miss Sunshine. If last year taught us anything, it's that, well, anything can happen.
Who should win: The Departed, but it, along with Letters from Iwo Jima and Little Miss Sunshine, are excellent films.
Unlucky 6th placer: Poor Dreamgirls. Not only was I predicting it to get in, once it got in, I was going to predict it to win. Ooops.
Should have been nominated: Among things the Oscars clearly liked, Dreamgirls, Children of Men, and Pan's Labyrinth. Among things they probably didn't, Volver, Marie-Antoinette, The Fountain, Borat, and Inside Man, just to name a few films.
Random cool fact about this category: The Queen is the shortest nominee in length and The Departed is the longest...but when watching them, I felt exactly the opposite. =/
Oh, and happy Valentine's Day! Watch Love Actually.
Analyzing: Babel
My grade: B-
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: It's a modern message film, carrying over from last year's trend.
Pros: People have been calling it "international Crash" and they sure as hell liked the one from last year. It won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. The people who love it really love it. It's got the most nominations out of all the films nominated for Best Picture.
Cons: The people who hate it really hate it. Though it's not impossible, I can't see it winning any of its other categories. Outside of the Globe, no major precursor awards.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Its hype seems to have gone down since the Globes...it seems to have turned into The Departed vs. Little Miss Sunshine. Still, it's not implausible.
Analyzing: The Departed
My grade: A+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: A massive hit, both with audiences and critics.
Pros: Like I said, a big hit with both audiences and critics. Made a ton of money.
Cons: Might be too violent for the Academy. Scorsese doesn't exactly have a great track record with them. Mark Wahlberg is its only acting nominee = less support than we think?
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yes.
Analyzing: Letters from Iwo Jima
My grade: A-
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Clint Eastwood.
Pros: Clint Eastwood. WWII drama. Flags of Our Fathers. Extremely critically acclaimed.
Cons: It's subtitled and made very little money.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Probably not. Eastwood is enough to get it in, but probably not enough to give it the win, like Eastwood's last superb movie, Mystic River.
Analyzing: Little Miss Sunshine
My grade: B+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Feel-good indie underdog.
Pros: It's hard to root against it, and it's got really enthusiastic fans.
Cons: It's got really enthusiastic and overly vicious haters as well. Sideways was a feel-good indie underdog too, and it got lost in Eastwood v. Scorsese, Round 1 hmmm. May have won the PGA and SAG, but it couldn't win the bigger award - the Golden Globe. Summer release.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Yup, and a pretty high one, too. People really like this movie.
Analyzing: The Queen
My grade: C/C+
How'd it get nominated, mainly?: Helen Mirren.
Pros: Helen Mirren. Smart, critically-acclaimed contemporary drama. Oscar does love their Brits.
Cons: If Little Miss Sunshine is the Sideways of this year, then The Queen is its Capote...
Basically, any chance of winning?: Probably not, but if there's some severe vote-splitting...
Analyzing: Best Picture as a whole
Who will win: It's tough to call...but right now, I guess I'll go for Little Miss Sunshine. If last year taught us anything, it's that, well, anything can happen.
Who should win: The Departed, but it, along with Letters from Iwo Jima and Little Miss Sunshine, are excellent films.
Unlucky 6th placer: Poor Dreamgirls. Not only was I predicting it to get in, once it got in, I was going to predict it to win. Ooops.
Should have been nominated: Among things the Oscars clearly liked, Dreamgirls, Children of Men, and Pan's Labyrinth. Among things they probably didn't, Volver, Marie-Antoinette, The Fountain, Borat, and Inside Man, just to name a few films.
Random cool fact about this category: The Queen is the shortest nominee in length and The Departed is the longest...but when watching them, I felt exactly the opposite. =/
Oh, and happy Valentine's Day! Watch Love Actually.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
BAFTA craziness
Dear BAFTAs,
Grrr. You gave The Queen Best Picture (it was predictable though) and Best Director to anyone that is not Marty (okay, so did I, but Aronofsky never had a chance in awards circles...and yes, Greengrass did a great job). Your screenplay wins confuse me and you gave Alan Arkin the freaking award?!
Still, I will let you live. You gave Children of Men Best Cinematography and Art Direction, which it certainly deserves. J-Hud got Best Supporting Actress from you. And, most importantly, despite two nominations, you didn't give Emily Blunt anything. Thanks!
Sort of love, me
Grrr. You gave The Queen Best Picture (it was predictable though) and Best Director to anyone that is not Marty (okay, so did I, but Aronofsky never had a chance in awards circles...and yes, Greengrass did a great job). Your screenplay wins confuse me and you gave Alan Arkin the freaking award?!
Still, I will let you live. You gave Children of Men Best Cinematography and Art Direction, which it certainly deserves. J-Hud got Best Supporting Actress from you. And, most importantly, despite two nominations, you didn't give Emily Blunt anything. Thanks!
Sort of love, me
Monday, October 23, 2006
i need more spare time
currentish movies I need to see, in the order I want to see them:
1. Marie-Antoinette
2. Little Children
3. Little Miss Sunshine
4. The Prestige
5. The Queen
6. Running with Scissors
7. Flags of Our Fathers
and why the hell is there a Saw III?
1. Marie-Antoinette
2. Little Children
3. Little Miss Sunshine
4. The Prestige
5. The Queen
6. Running with Scissors
7. Flags of Our Fathers
and why the hell is there a Saw III?
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