Analyzing: Penelope Cruz, Volver
My rank among the nominees: 4th
How'd she get nominated?: Hype building for almost a year combined with the result.
Pros: The fact that she could get in with a subtitled film that didn't get other Academy support says a lot. She's hot.
Cons: They clearly didn't love the film since it was snubbed like all hell. Subtitled. "Oscar winner, Penelope Cruz?" Not Helen Mirren.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. She's coming in dead last here.
Analyzing: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
My rank among the nominees: 2nd
How'd she get nominated?: She's Judi Dench.
Pros: Judi Dench. Amazing performance backed up by reviews. Film got support from nominations (Blanchett, Score, Adapted Screenplay).
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. Already has an Oscar.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope.
Analyzing: Helen Mirren, The Queen
My rank among the nominees: 5th
How'd she get nominated?: A talented actress with no Oscar playing a real-life famous person in a Best Picture nominee prestige pic, backed up by glowing reviews?!
Pros: Virtually every damn critics award. Everyone loves her and recognizes her amazing talent but she's Oscarless. She's in a biopic. Rave, rave,
rave reviews.
Cons: Um...backlash? This would have been a bigger factor already, like with Julianne Moore in 2002 with
Far from Heaven. A whole bunch of critics awards, and then the Globes came and BAM! Nicole took over.
Basically, any chance of winning?: All the other nominees here have "not Helen Mirren" in their cons section for a reason.
Analyzing: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
My rank among the nominees: 1st
How'd she get nominated?: Meryl effin' Streep
Pros: Everyone wants to see Meryl win another Oscar...she hasn't since '83! The only American in this category. People have been talking about her non-stop since this movie came out.
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. The movie is fluffy and didn't have much other Oscar support (if she got Blunt in with her, she might have a slightly better chance).
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. But she's coming in (a distant) second.
Analyzing: Kate Winslet, Little Children
My rank among the nominees: 3rd
How'd she get nominated?: Kate Winslet. 5 nominations at 31?! They clearly
do like her.
Pros: As I just said, 5 nominations must mean they like her, especially in stuff like
Little Children which played in like one teeny little hidden theater in LA for half a week and certainly didn't get out there with an FYC campaign. At the beginning of this year, she was considered the frontrunner.
Cons: Not Helen Mirren. Teensy tiny little film.
Basically, any chance of winning?: Nope. Not Helen Mirren.
Analyzing: Best Actress as a whole
Who will win: OH GOD THIS IS SO HARD. Um...just kidding. Helen Mirren has this all sewn (sown?) up.
Who should win: Okay, I know I ranked these ladies, but it might as well be a tie. Almost always, the categories have at least one nominee that makes me go "eh" or "ugh!" Here, not at all. They might as well all be the winners! It's just a shame that in such an amazing year for actresses, the same name kept coming up.
Unlucky sixth placer: Probably Maggie Gyllenhaal in
Sherrybaby...but who can tell with this year? Nobody else ever got mentioned besides these five. Ahaaaa.
Snubbed: Many people. Among the most notable/ones I liked the most, Naomi Watts in
The Painted Veil, Cate Blanchett in
The Good German, Laura Dern in
Inland Empire, and Maggie Gyllenhaal in
Sherrybaby.Random cool fact about this category: Meryl Streep has the most nominations ever and Kate Winslet has the most nominations ever for someone her age.
