Analysis Part 3: Actress.

Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pros: Cate Blanchett. In a sure Best Picture nominee.
Cons: Very little precursor attention, including missing the Globe and SAG noms. Maybe they're as tired of her as I am? Dare to dream...
Do I think she's in? Actually, I do. Underestimate Cate Blanchett at your peril when it comes to AMPAS. I'm still shocked she didn't actually win last year.

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Pros: Great reviews. Looks great on the red carpet/hot young thing. She plays a drug addict and OMG that's so edgy from a former Disney princess or whatever. Lots of precursors, including all the important ones.
Cons: Not a sympathetic character. No one seems to be interested in her film apart from this performance. And hi, welcome to my bias talking, but "Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway"? Girl, please.
Do I think she's in? Unfortunately. I really shouldn't insult her so promiscuously when I haven't even seen the darn movie, hah.

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Pros: Mostly great reviews and she's in a Mike Leigh film. Winning at the Globes can't hurt. Many precursors (NY, LA, Boston). A lot of people find her character extremely lovable.
Cons: ...and a lot find her character extremely annoying. Snubbed by BAFTA?!?!?! And SAG. In a small film unlikely to get any other nominations. An unknown up against many big stars.
Do I think she's in? In a lineup of five, I don't, but I won't be surprised at all if she gets in over Blanchett or Jolie. She's my extremely close sixth.

Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Pros: She's a distressed mother. In a Clint Eastwood movie. Yeah. Seems to have every important precursor nomination. She's Angelina Jolie and undoubtedly brings star power. They snubbed her for A Mighty Heart last year.
Cons: Hasn't won any precursors that would get her attention. Her star power may work against her... is her snub for The Mighty Heart an indicator that AMPAS doesn't like her rather than something they feel badly for?
Do I think she's in? Yes, but it's not a sure thing.

Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Pros: Critical acclaim and a decent amount of precursors for a film so tiny.
Cons: Who in what now?
Do I think she's in? No, she's just too obscure. Though her nomination wouldn't shock me.

Kristin Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Pros: Hey, she's French, and we learned to not underestimate the French last year. A past nominee, so she may look more attractive/familiar to voters when it comes to the smaller films like Leo's or Hawkins'. Globe nom.
Cons: Film is very small and OMG has subtitles. Other than the Globe nom, she doesn't have many precursors.
Do I think she's in? No, the film is too small.

Meryl Streep, Doubt
Pros: MERYL STREEP. Hasn't missed an important precursor award.
Cons: Film and especially performance have detractors, with many saying it's nowhere near close to her work in Sophie's Choice and you know they want this girl to WORK for that third Oscar.
Do I think she's in? Yes. The win may be an uphill battle for her, but let's wait until SAG.

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Pros: Kate Winslet, y'all know she's badly overdue. Double Globe win with extremely likable speech. Lots of precursor awards.
Cons: Backlash? The film hasn't gotten tons of attention. I would have said confusion with vote splitting for The Reader, but it seems extremely clear that it's set that her role in that film is supporting while she's lead here.
Do I think she's in? Yes. And wouldn't another double win in one night be glorious? :)

Angelina Jolie!

You have Brad Pitt.

Can you smile? Or stop glowering for .0002 seconds?

Baby showdown.

(friend) (10:43:08 PM): so jessica alba and cash warren are married
(me) (10:43:11 PM): i know
(me) (10:43:17 PM): they are now legally obligated to just gaze at each others' beauty all day long
(friend) (10:43:27 PM): just wait till she gives birth
(friend) (10:43:53 PM): its going to be a shiloh/brangelina twins vs. alba baby ultimate pretty smackdown

BFCA thoughts.

- to quote No Country for Old Men, "you can't stop what's coming." And that would be No Country / the Coens / DDL / Christie / Bardem / Ryan (or maybe Blanchett)...
- Why was no one there??? It's like, the one awards show with an actual waiver!
- Daniel Day-Lewis is incredibly charming. He still freaks me out because I've never seen more than one picture of that man where he looked the same.
- Javier Bardem's speeches were probably the best part of the night. He was hilarious, and the fact that he has problems with English makes his performance in No Country even more outstanding.
- The host was horrible.
- As far as the winners go, I have no real complaints. Yes, there were sometimes nominees I preferred over the winners but nothing made me gasp and go "HOW DARE YOU!!!!!!" except maaaybe Best Young Actor. Ed Sanders deserved it about 100000%.
- Enchanted won something!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Oh my God, I felt so bad for poor Marion Cotillard. First, she's like, the only Best Actress nominee to actually show up (okay, her and Ellen Page, but at least Ellen Page got to ride a wave of Juno is the best movie evarrrr!!!! love). Then, the stupid red carpet reporter mis-identifies her as Emily Deschanel and she has to talk about things she probably knows absolutely nothing about. Then, she has to sit there while she loses to someone who wasn't even there (okay, Christie's win was deserving). Poor thing. I had no idea she was so pretty, though. My only reference for her looks is La vie en rose, which I keep trying to block out of my mind, and that still from La vie en rose where she looks kind of like she has to...sneeze, or cry weirdly, or something.
- I still have no desire to see The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Yeah, I'm sure it's great, but... I dunno... I guess if it gets the DGA/Oscar Best Director nod, I've gotta see it...
- That girl from Hairspray is adorable.
- Was I the only one that didn't think Leslie Mann was that funny?
- Angelina Jolie made the funniest faces ever.
- Can everyone please stop complaining about how "boring" every award season is? Yes, critics tend to agree on certain movies/directors/actors that go on to win the Oscar. But every award season, people act like this is new. Every year, anew, people declare "this is the most boring awards season ever!" Deal with it.

Really attractive celebrity couple.

Though uh, not really in this picture.

But when they're at their best: Fuck Brangelina. (They're boring anyway)