Independent Spirit Awards Predix

Here are this year's nominees. If the order of this list seems weird, I'm just going by that.

Best Supporting Actress: Rosemarie DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married. I think Penelope might be a little too mainstream-y for them here, and they always like showing how ~~edgy~~ (but not really because they are totally predictable) they are.

Best Supporting Actor: James Franco in Milk. Like I said... they're ~~edgy~~, but they're not that edgy.

Best Director: Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married. I think it's going to clean up and that's actually kind of unfortunate, because the film furthers some of the worst "stereotypes" about tiny indie movies. Alternatively, Courtney Hunt could win for Frozen River so they could be like, "Look! We gave the award to a girl!!! We are so ~~edgy~~!!!!!!!!"

Best Screenplay: Vicky Cristina Barcelona. The only other one I could see upsetting here is Synecdoche, New York.

Best First Screenplay: Milk. This was a tough call. I wouldn't be surprised if Rachel Getting Married won this, because it is indie and pretentious, and by a girl. Maybe Frozen River too.

There are a lot of other categories I don't really care about, so blah blah blah...

Best First Feature: Synecdoche, New York. Are you kidding? It's Charlie Kaufman. The ISAs may be ~~edgy~~ but who the heck has heard of any of these other movies?

Best Actor: Sean Penn in Milk. I think this group is going to love the hell out of Milk.

Best Actress: I can't tell if Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married is ~~edgy~~ enough for them. I mean, the film is ~~edgy~~ in the way that the ISAs are, but Anne Hathaway is OMG famous. I think I'll predict Melissa Leo in Frozen River here, but wouldn't be surprised with either woman.

Best Picture: Rachel Getting Married, meh. I hope there's an upset here.

Quick ISA update

http://snarkerella.blogspot.com/2008/01/because-i-cant-think-of-anything-better.html

Hooray, everything right except Male Lead and First Feature. These things are way easier to predict than the Oscars.

because I can't think of anything better.

Independent Spirit Awards guesses. Why did I do them in such a strange order? I don't know.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Jennifer Jason Leigh - Margot at the Wedding
Anna Kendrick - Rocket Science
Tamara Podenski - Four Sheets to the Wind
Marisa Tomei - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Will win: Blanchett
Spoiler: Tomei
Could win: Jason Leigh
Should win: Blanchett
I haven't seen: Kendrick, Podenski

Best Supporting Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Talk to Me
Marcus Carl Franklin - I'm Not There
Kene Holliday - Great World of Sound
Irfan Kahn - The Namesake
Steve Zahn - Rescue Dawn
Will win: Ejiofor
Spoiler: Franklin
Could win: Zahn
Should win: Zahn
I haven't seen: Ejiofor, Holliday

Best First Screenplay
A Mighty Heart
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Broken English
Juno
Rocket Science
Will win: Juno
Spoiler: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Could win: A Mighty Heart
I haven't seen: Broken English, Rocket Science

Best Screenplay
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Savages
Starting Out in the Evening
Waitress
Year of the Dog
Will win: The Savages
Spoiler: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Could win: Waitress
I haven't seen: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly =/

Best Actor
Pedro Castaneda - August Evening
Don Cheadle - Talk to Me
Frank Langella - Starting Out in the Evening
Tony Leung - Lust, Caution
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages
Will win: Langella
Spoiler: Hoffman
Could win: Cheadle
Should win: Hoffman, though I think if I saw Cheadle I might like him more
I haven't seen: Castaneda, Cheadle

Best Actress
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Sienna Miller - Interview
Ellen Page - Juno
Parker Posey - Broken English
Tang Wei - Lust, Caution
Will win: Page
Spoiler: Jolie
Could win: Wei
Should win: Wei narrowly over Miller
I haven't seen: Posey

Best First Feature
2 Days in Paris
Great World of Sound
The Lookout
Rocket Science
Vanaja
Will win: Rocket Science
Spoiler: 2 Days in Paris
Could win: The Lookout
Should win: ???
I haven't seen: any of these except The Lookout which wasn't worthy of much save a mention of Jeff Daniels.

Best Director
Todd Haynes - I'm Not There
Tamara Jenkins - The Savages
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Gus Von Sant - Paranoid Park
Will win: Schnabel
Spoiler: Haynes
Could win: Reitman
I haven't seen: Schnabel or Von Sant

Best Picture
A Mighty Heart
I'm Not There
Juno
Paranoid Park
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Will win: Juno
Spoiler: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Could win: I'm Not There
I haven't seen: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Paranoid Park

Independent Spirit Awards

oh yeah, these are happening too. Here are my half-assed guesses as to who will win. Note: haven't seen (this is embarassing) American Gun, The Dead Girl, Stephanie Daley, Steel City, Sorry Haters, Wristcutters: A Love Story, Man Push Cart, Land of Plenty, Sweet Land and all of the documentaries/films nominated for Best Cinematography outside of Pan's Labyrinth.

Best Feature: Little Miss Sunshine
Best Director: Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris for Little Miss Sunshine
Best Actor: Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson
Best Actress: Shareeka Epps for Half Nelson
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine
Best Supporting Actress: Frances McDormand for Friends with Money
Best Screenplay: Thank You for Smoking
Best First Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine
Best First Feature: Man Push Cart

Aaand that's all I feel like predicting. Yeah, it's really skewed toward two or so films. But remember, last year they didn't exactly go all that contrary to Oscar...Brokeback Mountain, Crash, and Capote cleaned up well.