Independent Spirit Awards guesses. Why did I do them in such a strange order? I don't know.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Jennifer Jason Leigh - Margot at the Wedding
Anna Kendrick - Rocket Science
Tamara Podenski - Four Sheets to the Wind
Marisa Tomei - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Will win: Blanchett
Spoiler: Tomei
Could win: Jason Leigh
Should win: Blanchett
I haven't seen: Kendrick, Podenski
Best Supporting Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Talk to Me
Marcus Carl Franklin - I'm Not There
Kene Holliday - Great World of Sound
Irfan Kahn - The Namesake
Steve Zahn - Rescue Dawn
Will win: Ejiofor
Spoiler: Franklin
Could win: Zahn
Should win: Zahn
I haven't seen: Ejiofor, Holliday
Best First Screenplay
A Mighty Heart
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Broken English
Juno
Rocket Science
Will win: Juno
Spoiler: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Could win: A Mighty Heart
I haven't seen: Broken English, Rocket Science
Best Screenplay
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Savages
Starting Out in the Evening
Waitress
Year of the Dog
Will win: The Savages
Spoiler: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Could win: Waitress
I haven't seen: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly =/
Best Actor
Pedro Castaneda - August Evening
Don Cheadle - Talk to Me
Frank Langella - Starting Out in the Evening
Tony Leung - Lust, Caution
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages
Will win: Langella
Spoiler: Hoffman
Could win: Cheadle
Should win: Hoffman, though I think if I saw Cheadle I might like him more
I haven't seen: Castaneda, Cheadle
Best Actress
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Sienna Miller - Interview
Ellen Page - Juno
Parker Posey - Broken English
Tang Wei - Lust, Caution
Will win: Page
Spoiler: Jolie
Could win: Wei
Should win: Wei narrowly over Miller
I haven't seen: Posey
Best First Feature
2 Days in Paris
Great World of Sound
The Lookout
Rocket Science
Vanaja
Will win: Rocket Science
Spoiler: 2 Days in Paris
Could win: The Lookout
Should win: ???
I haven't seen: any of these except The Lookout which wasn't worthy of much save a mention of Jeff Daniels.
Best Director
Todd Haynes - I'm Not There
Tamara Jenkins - The Savages
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Gus Von Sant - Paranoid Park
Will win: Schnabel
Spoiler: Haynes
Could win: Reitman
I haven't seen: Schnabel or Von Sant
Best Picture
A Mighty Heart
I'm Not There
Juno
Paranoid Park
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Will win: Juno
Spoiler: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Could win: I'm Not There
I haven't seen: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Paranoid Park
