Best Picture
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alternates: Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
I don't think the Globe win saves Atonement in any way, it just makes the race a little more interesting. Sad, but whatever. At least Atonement has a likely sweep of the BAFTAs, right? I still can't see AMPAS going for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly when Pan's Labyrinth couldn't get in last year (though knowing me, Diving Bell will be nominated, of course). If one of these is most vulnerable, I think it might actually be There Will Be Blood, as it's...um...a tad too crazy for AMPAS, no?
Best Director
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Coen brothers, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alternates: Burton, Scott, Fincher, Lumet
Take DGA. Copy + paste. Hooray! If AMPAS gets sentimental they could go for Lumet or Scott, and if they're feeling crazy they could go for Fincher. Burton still stands a pretty good chance, but I can't think of who to bump out.
Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Alternates: Gosling, Washington, McAvoy
Wow, if this happens, what a strong lineup. Not a performance I didn't like in the bunch. Of course, this means Gosling (sorry, Ryan. Looooved you in Half Nelson.) or Washington will get in at the expense of, like, Viggo. *cries*
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La vie en rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno
Alternates: Blanchett, Linney, Knightley
I know, predicting Adams over Blanchett is sheer lunacy. But...Adams might be on less ballots overall, but get way more #1s; ain't no one votin' #1 for Blanchett except Blanchett. And...I'm thinking optimistically. Shhh! I would cry of happiness if Linney got in, but I just don't think it's happening.
Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Alternates: Travolta (please, no...), Lee Jones, Finney
I don't really see too many people spoiling this party. If Travolta gets in I shan't be happy.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Alternates: Redgrave, Dee, Garner
I liked Breslin a lot last year but if she got in, Ronan should get in...
Best Original Screenplay
Juno
Knocked Up
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
Alternates: Lars and the Real Girl, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Don't really have any comments for this one. I just don't see Oscar going for Lars at all. shrug
Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alternates: Charlie Wilson's War, Zodiac, Away from Her
I think, even if it gets left out of Picture/Director/the other majors, the Academy would really have to absolutely despise Atonement to leave it out here.
Hmm.
