Best Picture: Atonement, Charlie Wilson's War, Goya's Ghosts, Lions for Lambs, Reservation Road
What Happened?: Atonement got snubbed by every guild in existence, though it's still got a chance; it's far from totally gone. Charlie Wilson's War got ignored by precursors, though it wasn't a bad guess. Goya's Ghosts never made a splash in America and got bad reviews. Lions for Lambs got awful reviews, and I never saw it myself but if the trailer had been out when I was still here, I would have removed it from my predictions immediately because Jesus Christ that trailer was awful! Reservation Road got awful reviews and vanished. (Better luck with Revolutionary Road, eh?)
Best Director: Cronenberg (Eastern Promises), Forman (Goya's Ghosts), Nichols (Charlie Wilson's War), Redford (Lions for Lambs), George (Reservation Road)
What Happened?: For Forman, Nichols, Redford, and George, see above (plus, many of the criticism about Wilson's has to do with Nichols' direction). Eastern Promises is widely considered not as good as A History of Violence (not incorrectly) and Cronenberg never got any mentions.
Best Actor: Crowe (Gangster), Day-Lewis, Depp, Hanks, Washington
What Happened?: Hey, at least four of these are sort of in the race! Day-Lewis and Depp are basically locks for nominations, and Washington has a chance, and Hanks does...sort of... Crowe, of course, got relegated to Supporting (where he still has no chance; too bad, he was excellent and Washington was coasting), because apparently movies absolutely cannot have two leads of the same gender (I tried to make some "that share genitalia" joke, but it just...wasn't working).
Best Actress: Blanchett, Christie, Jolie, Sarah Jessica Parker (Spinning Into Butter), Streep (Lions for Lambs)
What Happened?: Christie, Jolie, and Blanchett are all locks or near-locks, which makes Parker and Streep hilarious because they are absolutely dead in terms of any Oscar possibility at all. I don't think Parker's movie even ever came out/was picked up for distribution. I also said "I don't think Marion Cotillard will get nominated for La vie en rose" (though I was still pretentiously calling it La Mome), which...so...egg on my face there, yup. Not surprising. Also, during the summer, I LOLed at myself for picking Jolie. To be fair, her chances did completely die down for a long time, then came back out of nowhere. Huh. I dunno.
Best Supporting Actor: De Niro (Stardust), Philip Seymour Hoffman, McAvoy (Becoming Jane), Clive Owen (Golden Age), Wilkinson
What Happened?: You know, for someone who barely did any sort of research, I'm not doing that badly on the acting predictions. It's just... the ones that I got wrong are so very wrong. Hoffman and Wilkinson are extremely likely to get nominations. But, the other three...um...no.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (Charlie Wilson's War), Glenn Close (Evening), Jane Fonda (Georgia Rule), Scarlett Johansson (The Other Boleyn Girl), Nicole Kidman (The Golden Compass)
What Happened?: ...aaaaaaand here's where my "I didn't do that badly on my acting predictions" goes to shit. Adams was just fine in Wilson's (if not a gazillionth as good as her performance in, duh, Enchanted) but Julia Roberts got "all the attention," Evening and Georgia Rule absolutely blew, The Golden Compass didn't get Kidman any attention (then again, neither did Margot at the Wedding), and Boleyn got delayed until 2008 and is probably terrible.
Best Original Screenplay: Cassandra's Dream, Goya's Ghosts, Leatherheads, Lions for Lambs, Rendition
What Happened?: Look at these and laugh at me. It's like, four of the most "oops, these didn't live up to their promise!" movies of the year (and one that got delayed until 2008). I do think Leatherheads might have a good chance for 2008, though. The preview looks great. And George Clooney! And Jim Halpert!!
Best Adapted Screenplay: American Gangster, Charlie Wilson's War, In the Valley of Elah, The Other Boleyn Girl, There Will Be Blood
What Happened?: haha I didn't even get the category right for Elah. It's original. Duh... anyway, this isn't nearly as ridiculous as my predictions for Original Screenplay, as all of these at least have a teeny chance (though let's face it, Gangster and Elah ain't gettin' in) or got delayed until 2008.
Um... at least I never predicted major success for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Youth Without Youth, or Rendition, right?
