Thanks to this one great site, which nails most of the people who have any sort of chance of Oscar. Here are the main categories, with a breakdown of (only) the people/movies listed. I'm not trying to narrow it down to 5 in any category. Note: this post...is a long-y.
No chance: the ones that...well...have no chance. If it's a performance, well, I guess I could say that not even the actor/actress would vote for themselves.
Vote siphoners: if they got a nomination, it would be a tremendous shock, but they're surely going to appear on a ballot somewhere.
It's a possibility: unlikely for the nomination, but it wouldn't be totally surprising
Nearly locks: well...yeah. Those that are almost a sure thing for the nomination. Being snubbed wouldn't be unbelievable, but it would be very surprising.
Locks: if they didn't get in, it would be shocking.
Anyone missing?: those that aren't on the list of even slight possibilities, but that should be.
Best Picture
No chance
Across the Universe
Beowulf
The Children of Huang Shi
The Golden Compass
Grace Is Gone
Lions for Lambs
Love in the Time of Cholera
Margot at the Wedding
Rescue Dawn
Reservation Road
Things We Lost in the Fire
Trade
When Did You Last See Your Father? (did this even come out? Colin Firth. I'd go see it.)
Youth Without Youth
Vote siphoners
The Assassination of Jesse James...
Eastern Promises
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Great Debaters
In the Valley of Elah
The Kite Runner
Lust, Caution
The Savages
Zodiac
it's a possibility
American Gangster
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Charlie Wilson's War
Gone Baby Gone
Sweeney Todd
nearly locks
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood
locks
No Country for Old Men
anyone missing?
3:10 to Yuma
Hairspray
Once
Ratatouille
as you see, Best Picture is...complicated. 7 movies. 5 spots. HARD
Best Director
no chance
Zemeckis - Beowulf
Jordan - The Brave One
Spottiswoode - The Children of Huang Shi
Kapur - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Weitz - The Golden Compass
Strause - Grace Is Gone
Redford - Lions for Lambs
Newell - Love in the Time of Cholera
Baumbach - Margot at the Wedding
Ball - Nothing is Private
George - Reservation Road
Bier - Things We Lost in the Fire
Kreuzpaintner - Trade
Schrader - The Walker
Tucker - And When Did You Last See Your Father?
Coppola - Youth Without Youth
vote siphoners
Taymor - Across the Universe
Dominik - The Assassination of Jesse James...
Greengrass - The Bourne Ultimatum
Nichols - Charlie Wilson's War
Haggis - In the Valley of Elah
Washington - The Great Debaters
Forster - The Kite Runner
Herzog - Rescue Dawn
Jenkins - The Savages
it's a possibility
Lumet - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Cronenberg - Eastern Promises
Affleck - Gone Baby Gone
Haynes - I'm Not There
Reitman - Juno
Lee - Lust, Caution
Fincher - Zodiac
nearly locks
Scott - American Gangster
Wright - Atonement
Penn - Into the Wild
Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Burton - Sweeney Todd
Anderson - There Will Be Blood
locks
Coens - No Country for Old Men
anyone missing?
Polley - Away from Her
Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (the second closest to a lock after the Coens. Why isn't he on this list?)
Best Actor
no chance
Abdallah - The Kite Runner
Bardem - Love in the Time of Cholera
Carell - Dan in Real Life
Crowe - American Gangster (wasn't he bumped to supporting?)
Del Toro - Things We Lost in the Fire
Farrell - Cassandra's Dream
Firth - And When Did You Last See Your Father?
Freeman - The Bucket List
Ganz - Youth Without Youth
Gordon-Levitt - The Lookout
Gyllenhaal - Zodiac
Hawke - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Harrelson - The Walker
Kline - Trade
Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men (campaigned supporting, not lead)
Kline - Trade
Leung - Lust, Caution
MacGregor - Cassandra's Dream
Rhys-Myers - The Children of Huang Shi
Nicholson - The Bucket List
Phillippe - Stop Loss (delayed til 08)
Pitt - Silk
Phoenix - Reservation Road
Phoenix - We Own the Night
Redford - Lions for Lambs
Roth - Funny Games (delayed til 08)
Travolta - Hairspray (campaigned supporting, not lead)
Washington - The Great Debaters
Winstone - Beowulf
vote siphoners
Affleck - Gone Baby Gone
Bale - Rescue Dawn
Cheadle - Talk to Me
Cusack - Grace Is Gone
Gere - The Hoax
Hoffman - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Hoffman - The Savages
Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Pinsent - Away from Her
Pitt - The Assassination...
Sandler - Reign Over Me
it's a possibility
Brolin - No Country for Old Men
Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War
near locks
Depp - Sweeney Todd
Hirsch - Into the Wild
McAvoy - Atonement
Mortensen - Eastern Promises
Washington - American Gangster
locks
Clooney - Michael Clayton
Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
anyone missing?
Bale - 3:10 to Yuma
Crowe - 3:10 to Yuma
Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl
Langella - Starting Out in the Evening
Riley - Control
Best Actress
no chance
Berry - Things We Lost in the Fire
Bishil - Nothing Is Private
Blethyn - Clubland
Hathaway - Becoming Jane
Johansson - The Nanny Diaries
Jones - My Blueberry Nights
Knightley - Silk
Mezzogiorno - Love in the Time of Cholera
Portman - Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
Sarandon - In the Valley of Elah
Thurman - In Bloom (moved to 08)
Watts - Eastern Promises
Watts - Funny Games (moved to 08)
vote siphoners
Judd - Bug
Kidman - Margot at the Wedding
Russell - Waitress
Wei - Lust, Caution
it's a possibility
Blonsky - Hairspray
Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd
Foster - The Brave One
nearly locks
Adams - Enchanted
Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Knightley - Atonement
Linney - The Savages
locks
Christie - Away from Her
Cotillard - La vie en rose
Page - Juno
anyone missing?
Heigl - Knocked Up
Best Supporting Actor
no chance
Beatty - The Walker
Berg - Lions for Lambs
Black - Margot at the Wedding
Bratt - Love in the Time of Cholera
Broadbent - And When Did You Last See Your Father?
Craig - The Golden Compass
Cooper - Breach (leading? No chance either way.)
Cooper - The Kingdom
Cruise - Lions for Lambs
Glover - Beowulf
Dafoe - The Walker
Duvall - We Own the Night
Ebrahimi - The Kite Runner
Eckhart - Nothing Is Private
Edwards - Zodiac
Efron - Hairspray
Ershadi - The Kite Runner
Franco - In the Valley of Elah
Freeman - Feast of Love
Freeman - Gone Baby Gone
Harris - Gone Baby Gone
Hoffman - Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
Howard - The Brave One
Jackson - Resurrecting the Champ
Lee - Sweeney Todd (NOT EVEN IN THE MOVIE!)
Mahmoodzada - The Kite Runner
Molina - The Hoax
Molina - Silk
Owen - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Pitt - Funny Games
Pollack - Michael Clayton
Ramos - Trade
Rockwell - The Assassination...
Roth - Youth Without Youth
Ruffalo - Reservation Road
Rush - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Spall - Sweeney Todd
Toub - The Kite Runner
Wahlberg - We Own the Night
Walken - Hairspray
Whitaker - The Great Debaters
Wilkinson - Cassandra's Dream
Yun-Fat - The Children of Huang Shi
vote siphoners
Bosco - The Savages
Cassel - Eastern Promises
Cohen - Sweeney Todd
De Niro - Stardust
Downey Jr. - Zodiac
Ejiofor - Talk to Me
Mueller-Stahl - Eastern Promises
Rickman - Sweeney Todd
Ruffalo - Zodiac
Zahn - Rescue Dawn
it's a possibility
Dano - There Will Be Blood
nearly locks
Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Holbrook - Into the Wild
Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
locks
Affleck - The Assassination...
Bardem - No Country for Old Men
anyone missing?
Finney - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men
Rudd - Knocked Up
Travolta - Hairspray
von Sydow - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Supporting Actress
no chance
Adams - Charlie Wilson's War
Atwell - Cassandra's Dream
Bacall - The Walker
Bachleda - Trade
Bello - Nothing is Private
Binoche - Dan in Real Life
Chen - Lust, Caution
Clarkson - Lars and the Real Girl
Collette - Nothing is Private
Connelly - Reservation Road
Cornish - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Dukakis - Away from Her
Fonda - Georgia Rule
Gaitan - Trade
Gay Harden - The Hoax
Gay Harden - Into the Wild
Leoni - The Kite Runner
Lohman - Things We Lost in the Fire
Mendes - We Own the Night
Mitchell - The Children of Huang Shi
Monaghan - Gone Baby Gone
Montenegro - Love in the Time of Cholera
Moreno - Love in the Time of Cholera
Mortimer - Lars and the Real Girl
Morton - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Page - An American Crime
Latifah - Hairspray
Sorvino - Reservation Road
Streep - Lions for Lambs
Streep - Rendition
Theron - In the Valley of Elah
Thomas - The Walker
Tomlin - The Walker
Weaver - The TV Set
Wood - In Bloom (delayed til 08)
Yeoh - The Children of Huang Shi
vote siphoners
Garai - Atonement
Kidman - The Golden Compass
Leigh - Margot at the Wedding
Morton - Control
Pfeiffer - Stardust
it's a possibility
MacDonald - No Country for Old Men
Pfeiffer - Hairspray
Redgrave - Atonement
Roberts - Charlie Wilson's War
Tomei - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
near locks
Keener - Into the Wild
locks
Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Swinton - Michael Clayton
anyone missing?
Dee - American Gangster
Garner - Juno
Mann - Knocked Up
Ronan - Atonement
Original Screenplay
no chance
Across the Universe
The Brave One
The Bucket List
Cassandra's Dream
Dan in Real Life
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Grace Is Gone
Lions for Lambs
The Lookout
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
My Blueberry Nights
Reign Over Me
Talk to Me
Things We Lost in the Fire
The Walker
We Own The Night
vote siphoners
The Great Debaters
I'm Not There
In the Valley of Elah
Margot at the Wedding
it's a possibility
American Gangster
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Eastern Promises
Waitress
near locks
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
locks
none on this list.
anyone missing?
uh... Juno, duh.
Knocked Up
Lars and the Real Girl
Superbad
Best Adapted Screenplay
no chance
And When Did You Last See Your Father?
Beowulf
The Golden Compass
Love in the Time of Cholera
The Nanny Diaries
Nothing Is Private
Reservation Road
Silk
Stardust
Trade
Youth Without Youth
vote siphoners
The Assassination...
The Kite Runner
Lust, Caution
Sweeney Todd
it's a possibility
Away from Her
Gone Baby Gone
Zodiac
nearly locks
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Into the Wild
There Will Be Blood
locks
No Country for Old Men
anything missing?
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
WHEWWWWWWWWWWW.
