Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Jon Heyman is dumb, part... a lot

Here you go.

Again, just for reference's sake, from 2009:

Top 10 AL WAR
1. Ben Zobrist 8.6
2. Joe Mauer 8.1
3. Derek Jeter 7.4
4. Evan Longoria 7.2
5. Chone Figgins 6.1
6. Franklin Gutierrez 5.9
7. Kevin Youkilis 5.7
8. Carl Crawford, Miguel Cabrera 5.5
9. Mark Teixeira, Dustin Pedroia 5.2
10. Ichiro Suzuki 5.1
IMO, this list is a little screwy and shows WAR's limitations. It really overvalues defense. I just don't buy that Figgins and Gutierrez were more valuable than Youkilis and Teixiera. I don't think Pedroia and Tex were similarly valuable. I definitely don't think Zobrist was more valuable than Mauer. But it's not AWFUL.

Top 10 NL WAR
1. Albert Pujols 8.5
2. Chase Utley 7.6
3. Hanley Ramirez 7.2
4. Ryan Zimmerman 7.1
5. Prince Fielder 6.8
6. Adrian Gonzalez 6.4
7. Troy Tulowitzki 5.4
8. Derrek Lee 5.3
9. Pablo Sandoval 5.2
10. Matt Kemp 5.0

Top 10 AL VORP
1. Joe Mauer
2. Derek Jeter
3. Ben Zobrist
4. Jason Bartlett
5. Adam Lind
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Evan Longoria
8. Mark Teixiera
9. Kevin Youkilis
10. Shin-soo Choo

Top 10 NL VORP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Prince Fielder
4. Ryan Braun
5. Pablo Sandoval
6. Chase Utley
7. Troy Tulowitzki
8. Adrian Gonzalez
9. Ryan Zimmerman
10. Joey Votto

Without further ado...

Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer and Zack Greinke should be shoo-ins for the NL MVP, AL MVP and AL Cy Young awards, respectively.
Well at least he got that right.

Chris Carpenter gets the call here in a tight race for NL Cy Young, as he led that league in both winning percentage and ERA. Adam Wainwright and Tim Lincecum aren't terrible choices, either, but the goals, after all, are to win the greatest percentage of games and allow the fewest runs. That's Carpenter.
No. The goal is to be the best pitcher possible, which would generally lead to winning the greatest percentage of games and allowing the fewest runs, all other things being equal. You generally do that by striking out a lot of guys, not walking very many, and getting weak contact on the balls people do hit. This generally does not include yelling at your pathetic offense, "SCORE RUNS!!!" because pitchers have almost nothing to do with that.

Buuuut Carpenter wasn't a bad choice for the Cy Young. There wasn't a shoo-in like there was in the AL. I do like me some advanced stats, but I'm not one of those people that thinks ERA is a quaint stat from a bygone time. ERA is not perfect, but let's not pretend FIP is either.

Miguel Cabrera is omitted from my AL MVP ballot entirely because it's obvious he didn't care enough to give full effort. There is no excuse for a 6 a.m. bender when the pennant's on the line, never mind all the other shenanigans that went along with it.
He had a .942 OPS and a 142 OPS+. He was top ten in WAR and VORP. What he did toward the end of the season doesn't look good at all, and I actually do completely understand people not putting him on the ballot for that. But, and I know it's not sexy to say this, the games in April count the same as the games in late September. The Tigers had been in first place in the division since May 10. That's a pretty damn long stretch of dominance. You know who contributed to that dominance a whole hell of a lot? Their awesome 1B Miggy Cabrera.

Milwaukee's Prince Fielder had a terrific statistical season (.299, 46 homers and 141 RBIs) and will likely make a vast majority of NL MVP ballots, but the "most valuable'' part of the equation is weighed heavily here, as I don't believe players on also-ran teams should win the award.
WTF IS WRONG WITH YOU?! Like what happened with Johan Santana last year, do you not realize how incredibly silly it is to penalize Fielder for something the other 24 guys on his team could or could not do? The Brewers' pitching staff had a collective 83 ERA+ in 2009. That's rancid. Their five main starters had the following ERA and IP totals:
Yovani Gallardo 3.73, 185.2 IP
Braden Looper 5.22, 194.2 IP
Jeff Suppan 5.29, 161.2 IP
Manny Parra 6.36, 140 IP
David Bush 6.38, 114.1 IP
AWFUL. In fact, it's kind of amazing they won any games at all, and were only two games under .500, with a pitching staff like that. You wanna know why they did? Because they had a pretty awesome, potent offense. Led by Prince Fielder and his line of .299/.412/.602/1.014, 168 OPS+.

I skipped stuff...

And remember, the postseason doesn't count.
I know that the postseason literally cannot count because the votes have to be in before the postseason. But the fact that the postseason doesn't count, but your team getting INTO the postseason is of UTTER IMPORTANCE, makes no sense.

1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals: Near-Triple Crown winner had it locked up by June.
Just... thank God he got this one right.

2. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: Spectacular talent could have won Comeback Player. Playoff failures don't count.
Tulo: ;_;
Also, Heyman's explanation for this is really bad. "He was really good, but he was really bad last year so he could have won Comeback Player. Also he failed in the playoffs."

3. Ryan Howard, Phillies: May actually be underrated.
No he is not. He's only been playing full-time since 2005, but he has a Rookie of the Year award, a MVP award (undeserved, but not a terrible choice) and a second-place finish in another year when he probably shouldn't have even been in the top ten. I love Ryan Howard, but he is not underrated. Chase Utley is not underrated any more, but he needs more MVP votes than Howard. If you want to call him underrated, I guess I wouldn't have a problem with it.

4. Andre Ethier, Dodgers: Six walk-off hits led league.
Melky Cabrera had three walk-off hits in 2009. Derek Jeter had none. Therefore, Melky Cabrera is a better player than Derek Jeter. Why didn't you vote for Melky Cabrera on your MVP ballot, Jon?!!??!?!

5. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins: Big-time talent earned wrath of teammate Dan Uggla for not playing through pain.
Another AWFUL explanation. "He's really talented. He got into a fight with a teammate one time." WTF??

I skipped stuff.

10. Matt Holliday, Cardinals: As soon as he got to St. Louis, the Cards took off.
He played 63 games. Aaaaghhhhh. At least you didn't vote him #1 or #2 like you did with Manny and Sabathia in 2008, I guess.

NL LVP (Least Valuable Player)
Milton Bradley, Cubs: Alfonso Soriano (20 HRs, 55 RBIs, .241) and Geovany Soto (positive test for pot, .218 batting average) were dreadful, as well. But Bradley was asked to leave the team for the final two weeks. Tough to top that.

Don't get me wrong, none of those guys were great, and Bradley probably did God only knows what in the clubhouse. But Milton Bradley's OPS+ was 99. Soriano's, 84. Soto, 79. Their teammate Mike Fontenot had an OPS+ of 72. So, technically, he was even less valuable than they were. Juuuust saying.

AL MVP

1. Joe Mauer, Twins: Led league in slugging percentage, on-base percentage and batting average as catcher. Runaway winner with Twins a playoff team.

Right. And he would have been the runaway winner if the Twins were in last place if he still posted the stats he did.

2. Mark Teixeira, Yankees: Monster first year in New York, leading the league in home runs (tied with Carlos Pena) and RBIs while manning first base like a Gold Glover.
I love Mark Teixeira and the whining and bitching by Yankee fans over him coming in second in the MVP voting (they weren't saying he should have won; they were saying he should have placed behind Jeter. I agree with this, but they were really, really, REALLY complaining about it. Omg STFU.), but he is a 1B batting third on the New York Yankees, ahead of guys that got on base a lot in 2009, generally Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon.

3. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: Feisty, versatile player personifies team.
*sigh*

I skipped stuff.

5. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: Yanks came together when he joined them after hip surgery.

6. Derek Jeter, Yankees: Improved in every way at 35. Just remarkable.

This makes no sense. A-Rod is an insane player. Mark Teixeira rules. But Derek Jeter is a shortstop. Elite offense at the SS position is much more valuable than the offense of a first baseman.

7. Bobby Abreu, Angels: Mike Scioscia called him their MVP. (Though if Torii Hunter played a full year, Scioscia noted it might have been him.)
WELL IF SCIOSCIA SAYS IT IT MUST BE TRUE

8. Victor Martinez, Red Sox: Versatile hitter was Boston's best player down the stretch. Jason Bay also worthy.
I am a big fan of V-Mart and he did very well with the Red Sox, posting a 133 OPS+. Jason Bay did even better, with a 134 OPS+. And HE WAS THERE THE WHOLE YEAR. Remember how Boston was awesome early on and everyone said ZOMG TEH YANKEES ARE DEAD RED SOX RUUL? That was mainly due to Jason Bay having an insane April/March and May. He was mediocre at best in June and July, but awesome in August and September/October. Jason Bay deserves MVP votes way more than V-Mart.

Skipped stuff.

10. Justin Verlander, Tigers: He's in here for teammate Miguel Cabrera, who would have been third if not for his costly weekend bender, which showed he didn't care.
So basically you didn't put Miggy to spite him but you just put Verlander for shits and giggles? Okay, Jon.

NL Cy Young

1. Carpenter, Cardinals: ERA and winning percentage titles normally a winning combo for this award.

2. Wainwright, Cardinals: The league's top winner is one tough guy.

3. Tim Lincecum, Giants: Tiny Tim a threat to throw a no-hitter every time out.


All of these explanations are so terrible. I'm skipping his choice for "worst" (shocker, it's Brad Lidge), but I'll note he's still using that awful "Cy Old" joke. I'll skip AL MVP, as it's dumb and, once again, if you listed the following guys on your MVP list:
9. Sabathia
10. Verlander

your Cy Young list should not be:
1. Greinke
2. Felix
3. Halladay
I mean, that's a much more acceptable Cy ballot than one with CC in first, but if you think CC was the most valuable pitcher, why isn't he #1 on your Cy ballot?

Skipping stuff, including NL rookie of the year.

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Porcello, Tigers: Became rare 20-year-old to win at least 14 games (Dwight Gooden was another) and pitched beautifully in the deciding game at the Metrodome.

OH SHIT does this mean Porcello is going to get addicted to coke and be pretty much done by like... age 25? (his no-hitter ruled though. The story about it in Birth of a Dynasty, a terrific book which I highly recommend, made me cry like a little bitch.)

Plus, whipped Youkilis.
This is the best sentence in this entire article. (stands and applauds)

Skipped #2...

3. Andrew Bailey, A's: Big-time numbers, but let's face it: He's a closer on a loser.
Holy SHIT.

True story: I have actually met (outside of some meet-and-greet things) two MLB players. Neither were Yankees. One was Andrew Bailey (the other was Rocco Baldelli, who's a sweetheart. Because nobody reads this blog, I can openly say that I'm pretty friendly with the guy. As in I can send him an e-mail right now if I wanted to.). I was at a party with him one time, because one of my best friends goes to Wagner and so did he, and I was visiting her and we went to a party where he was. He's a cool guy, at least from the two or so hours I was in his presence. So I guess he's my boy and I gotta defend him. (He is less so my boy than Rick Porcello, just for the Youkilis beatdown, though.)

Anyway, Jon Heyman says "Fuck you Andrew Bailey. You had an outright nasty year - 83.1 IP, 86.7% SV conversion, 238 ERA+, 9.8 K/9, 3.79 K/BB, 0.876 WHIP - but YOU FUCKING SUCK because YOU CLOSE FOR A LOSER. You clearly should have stalked Brian Cashman and forced him to draft you, then use you to close over Mariano Rivera. Then you'd be on a winner, you loser."

Also, Jon, you know how "loser" teams become non-loser teams? Getting really good players. Like Andrew Bailey.

From AL Manager of the Year:
2. Ron Gardenhire, Twins: Got the $60 million team to the playoffs.
I think Gardenhire's a pretty good manager but it was IN THE AL CENTRAL. They would have been third in the AL West (with the fourth-place team back by only one game) and third in the AL East (and I'm not counting what would probably happen if the unbalanced schedule was going on and the "tough teams" the Twins would have to face 18 times each would be the Yankees and Red Sox, and even the Rays, compared to the Tigers and the White Sox). They wouldn't have won any other division, and they would have been in second in only one other one (NL Central, which has six teams, a whopping two of which were over .500). Heck, they would have been FOURTH IN THE NL WEST (though the unbalanced schedule would probably help them there). I mean, you have to work with the division you're in, but let's not bend over backwards to drool over Gardenhire.

Oh, and from the notes at the end:
Scioscia has been a New York serial killer in the postseason, Mike Vaccaro points out in Monday's Post.
ZOMG he beat them two times. His teams are 6-3 against the Yankees (now they are 8-7). He is a ~serial killer~ I am so scared of him!!!! He made the Yankee pitching vomit in 2002 and forced those guys to crash into each other in the outfield in 2005!