Yeah. Here it is.
Just for the record, from 2008:
AL WAR top 10
1. Dustin Pedroia 6.7
2. Grady Sizemore 6.4
3. Nick Markakis 6.3
4. Alex Rodriguez 6.0
5. Joe Mauer 5.8
6. Alex Rios, Kevin Youkilis 5.6
7. Evan Longoria 5.3
8. BJ Upton, Brian Roberts 4.8
9. Milton Bradley 4.6
10. Carlos Quentin 4.5
(pitchers that could be included: Roy Halladay 7.4, Cliff Lee 7.2, Ervin Santana 5.8, AJ Burnett 5.5 [!!!!!!], Mike Mussina 5.3, John Danks 5.2, John Lester 5.1, Josh Beckett 5.0, Zack Greinke 4.9, Javier Vazquez 4.8, Mark Buerhle 4.5. Can someone tell me how Andy Pettitte was worth more WAR in 2008 than 2009? That just seems weird and is one of those things that makes me go o_O about WAR.)
AL VORP top 10
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. Grady Sizemore
4. Josh Hamilton
5. Milton Bradley
6. Joe Mauer
7. Aubrey Huff
8. Ian Kinsler
9. Kevin Youkilis
10. Carlos Quentin
NL WAR top 10
1. Albert Pujols 9.0
2. Chase Utley 8.1
3. Chipper Jones 7.7
4. David Wright 7.4
5. Hanley Ramirez 7.3
6. Lance Berkman 6.9
7. Carlos Beltran 6.7
8. Matt Holliday 6.3
9. Jose Reyes 5.9
10. Ryan Ludwick, Brian McCann 5.7
(pitchers that could be included: Tim Lincecum 7.5, Dan Haren 6.5, Brandon Webb 6.1)
NL VORP top 10
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Chipper Jones
4. Lance Berkman
5. David Wright
6. Chase Utley
7. Jose Reyes
8. Matt Holliday
9. Carlos Beltran
10. Ryan Ludwick
These stats are not perfect, but they're the best we have. Oh, and just as a disclaimer, I don't think pitchers should win the MVP (especially relief pitchers). DEAL WITH IT, YO.
In the National League MVP vote, which should be fascinating, the question the voters will have to ask themselves is whether two players who came to the party late can qualify for that coveted seasonal honor.
That is, was a half season of CC Sabathia's dominance and heroics enough to carry him to this year's award? And was less than half a season plenty for that savant turned savior, Manny Ramirez?
No. And no. It wasn't even a half-season, dude. More like a third of a season.
My answer is an enthusiastic yes to both questions.
Wrong answer.
Both candidates are deserving. I don't care that they were late arrivers to the National League this season.
Well, um, you should.
Sabathia (11-2, 1.65 ERA in 17 starts for Milwaukee) and Ramirez (.396, 17 homers, 53 RBIs in 53 games with L.A.) easily made the biggest impacts.
No they didn't. They made the flashiest impacts because they came over late and made contending teams better. You know who made the biggest impacts? The guys who were awesome with their team for the entire year, even if they were on teams that didn't necessarily make the playoffs.
Ryan Howard still looks like the probable winner to me, as he had a big finish and bigger numbers (48 homers, 146 RBIs), which will sway a majority of voters. But just like Ramirez and Sabathia, Howard did almost all his real work over the final few months of the season.
Howard's season stats are larger. But the performances of Ramirez and Sabathia are more remarkable.
None of those guys deserve the MVP. Manny played in 53 games out of 162. CC, 17. Ryan Howard wasn't bad or anything, but he posted his career-low OPS and OPS+ (unless you're counting his 42 PA in 2004, which I am not) of .881 and 124. In today's game, for a 1B, those are generally not MVP numbers.
Also, "Howard did almost all his real work over the final few months of the season"? Sure, he had a .954 OPS in the second half, compared to a .832 OPS in the first. And he had an awesome 1.247 OPS in September/October. But his OPS in August was .791. Not too spectacular.
Johan Santana (16-7, league-leading 2.53 ERA) would be there right at the top of my MVP ballot, too, if not for the Mets' second straight last-minute failure. But thanks to the ineptitude of teammates, Santana's not going to win the MVP.
WHAT? Do you not realize how that doesn't make any sense, to penalize Johan for what the other 24 guys on the roster could or could not do? On the second-to-last day of the season, with the Mets facing elimination, Johan threw a complete game three-hit shutout. That's really fucking impressive. He had a 1.87 ERA in October and September. The Mets' "collapse" (not really, at least not to 2007 standards) was not, AT ALL, due to Johan.
I'm skipping some stuff here.
The AL races don't hold the same sort of allure. Cliff Lee wrapped up the Cy Young by August. As for MVP, no one really stands out among the candidates I keep hearing about.
Oh boo hoo for you, Heyman. It's only your job, for which you get paid a whole heck of a lot more money than I do, to look at these arguments and various stats and come up with a reasonable ballot. You did not. Therefore, I throw things at you from my mother's basement.
With that in mind, I'll take the only AL player who truly had a spectacular season for a contending team. I might be the only one perhaps making this call.
I don't have a very good feeling about this. Just please don't make him say "I'm voting for Derek Jeter" (keep in mind, this is 2008) because I hate it when people make me talk about Derek Jeter's deficiencies waaah.
But without even one truly special or MVP-worthy performance among starting pitchers or starting players on any of the contending AL clubs, I'll take K-Rod for MVP.
WHAT IS THIS I DON'T EVEN...
Here are my full theoretical ballots (since I left the newspaper game, they don't trust me with a real ballot anymore)...
There's a good goddamn reason for that.
NL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers. The savant saved the storied franchise, slugging .743 and lifting the Dodger dogs to the NL West title.
You know, if Arizona had a huge lead in the division when Manny arrived, and then the Dodgers went on a crazy hot streak that gave them the title, I could almost buy this argument. But even then, there would be other factors, not just Manny, I suspect. Also, "saved the storied franchise," WTF?
To be fair to Manny, his performance while wearing Dodger blue in 2008 - .396/.489/.743/1.232, 221 OPS+ - was completely goddamn insane. It was up there with some of Barry Bonds' most crazy years. However, Manny compiled that line in only 53 games. That's about a third of the games the Dodgers played. Arizona was 56-52 before Manny came to the NL West; the Dodgers were 54-54. It wasn't like Arizona was some megasuperuberpowerhouse and the Dodgers were... well... I was going to make some "fighting to crack .500" joke but then I realized that was actually the case, but you know what I mean. In the 53 games Manny played, the Dodgers gained a whole four games on the Diamondbacks to win the division by two games. Don't get me wrong: Manny certainly helped. But if the Dodger pitching pooped out like Dan Haren sort of did (2.62 ERA, .585 OPS against before Manny came to the NL West; 4.87 ERA, .827 OPS against after Manny came to the NL West. Oh and I checked in case you were suggesting those bad numbers were due to facing Manny like every game, he only faced the Manny Dodgers twice. One time Manny beat him up. The other time Manny didn't get a hit), they wouldn't have won that division.
2. CC Sabathia, Brewers. Carried them with three straight outings on three days' rest, and oh yes, had a league-leading seven complete games.
Again, I'm not trying to belittle what CC did for Milwaukee. He was awesome. He started 17 games and pitched 130.2 innings. That means he pitched an average of over seven and two-thirds innings per game. He had a 255 ERA+ in the NL and a ridiculous 5.12 K/BB ratio. He ruled. They probably would not have won the Wild Card without him. But they also probably would not have won the Wild Card without Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun and their 130 OPS+es that played in a whole hell of a lot more games than CC did. Ben Sheets had a 3.09 ERA and 31 starts. Again, I don't think pitchers deserve the MVP, but if I did, I'd think that Ben Sheets and his quiet excellence all year was probably worth more than CC's ridiculous awesomeness for a third of the season.
3. Ryan Howard, Phillies. Huge September (.352, 11 HRs) probably will get him the award.
Thank goodness it did not. He wasn't top ten in WAR, WARP, or even OPS. No way he deserves this. Other 1B were better choices than him. Other Phillies were better choices than him.
4. Brad Lidge, Phillies. Second perfect season for a closer ever. That's 41 for 41 in a park that was supposed to be tough on him.
He had a great season, but he also affected only 69.1 (69, hee hee!) innings. This guy is not one of the Phillies that was a better choice for MVP than Ryan Howard, by the way.
5. Albert Pujols, Cardinals. Kept the Cardinals in the hunt with .357 average despite a banged-up elbow.
Firs things first, batting average is one of the more useless stats. Ichiro hit .352 in 2009 and it was a whole hell of a lot different than Albert's .357 in 2008 (Ichiro walked 47 times including IBBs, and hit 46 XBH. Albert in 2008 walked 138 times in fewer PA and hit 81 XBH. But hey, they're both good contact hitters, so that's that!). Anyway, Pujols was the #1 with-a-bullet choice for MVP in 2008. There was really no other choice. A WAR of 9 is ridiculous and he led in every other advanced stat. He led the league in OPS and OPS+ by quite a bit. Thank God he actually won.
Skipping stuff.
9. Chase Utley, Phillies. Huge start still counts.
I just looked at Utley's splits for 2008, so I didn't realize the difference between his first half and second half (.955 OPS in the first, .855 OPS in the second), which was fairly stark. But still, the whole year counts, you know. He had a .915 OPS and a 135 OPS+, better numbers than Ryan Howard's, as a second baseman, while playing elite defense, on a team that was in a relatively tight division race. He was generally toward the top of most more advanced stats' lists of the best players in baseball and certainly in the NL. Again, Pujols was the only real choice for #1, but it's insane how underrated Utley has been in the MVP voting these past few years.
10. Lance Berkman, Astros. Houston was just a little too late to the party.
You suck, Lance Berkman. You - yes, you, personally - gave the team a situation where they had to use three catchers with these beautiful lines:
.218/.303/.296(!!!!)/.600 (Brad Ausmus)
.226/.270/.298/.567 (Humberto Quintero)
.137/.250/.253/.503 (JR Towles)
Yes, it is your fault that you gave these guys, respectively, 250, 183, and 161 PA. You also kept Michael Bourn and his .588 OPS in the lineup, too. And it's your fault that the starting pitching was either seriously injured (Wandy Rodriguez) or awful (everyone else) aside from Roy Oswalt. Like, seriously, why didn't you keep Roger Clemens on the crazy steroids he was on and force Andy Pettitte at gunpoint to repeat his year from 2005, and then re-sign both those guys? I repeat: YOU SUCK, LANCE BERKMAN.
NL LVP: Andruw Jones, Dodgers. He hit .158. What can you say? The worst ever. And at $18 million, no less. The anti-Manny.
I just wanted to repeat this so we can all goggle at Andruw's 2008 line:
.158/.256/.249/.505, 35 OPS+, 40 wRC+
That is SOME BAD. But according to Fangraphs, he was worth -0.9 WAR. Granted, this was probably helped by the fact that he was held to only 238 PA. But Jeff Francoeur was EVEN WORSE, at a robust -1.2 WAR.
AL MVP
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels. An alltime great season with a record 62 saves.
What. What. WHAT.
This was the entire thing that made me want to write this damn article, because it is so incredibly wrong. I don't think pitchers deserve the MVP. I really don't think relief pitchers deserve the MVP. But maybe you do. That's fine. I can understand that. It's the "alltime great season" that absolutely KILLS me here.
K-Rod, 2008: 62/69 SV (89.8%), 68.1 IP, 2.24 ERA, 198 ERA+, 10.1 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 2.26 K/BB, 1.288 WHIP
Mariano Rivera, 2008: 39/40 SV (97.5%), 70.2 IP, 1.40 ERA, 317 ERA+, 9.8 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, 12.83 K/BB, 0.665 WHIP
Joakim Soria, 2008: 42/45 SV (93.3%), 67.1 IP, 1.60 ERA, 272 ERA+, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.47 K/BB, 0.861 WHIP
Joe Nathan, 2008: 39/45 SV (86.7%), 67.2 IP, 1.33 ERA, 314 ERA+, 9.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 4.11 K/BB, 0.901 WHIP
So that's not only one, not only two, but three guys that had better seasons in 2008 alone than K-Rod. K-Rod had a pretty good year, don't get me wrong. But those guys were just... better.
K-Rod's 2008 was really, really not an "alltime great season." Look at Rollie Fingers' 1981 or Dennis Eckersley's 1990 (606 ERA+, 0.614 WHIP, 18.25 K/BB. Lol.). Heck, look at Mariano Rivera's 2008. K-Rod had a pretty damn good year, but it's not even close to an "alltime great" when you stop being a slave to the silly save stat.
I skipped stuff.
3. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox. The "jockey'' may actually win it with a scrappy attitude and solid stats (118 runs, 54 doubles).
Pedroia was a solid choice for MVP. My fellow Yankee fans like to mock this choice, but it really wasn't bad at all. I probably would have given it to Grady Sizemore, but let's not pretend it was Colon getting the Cy Young in 2005. In a year when there was no real obvious winner in the AL, they gave it to a really good player at a premium position on a playoff team. He led the AL in WAR, though it wasn't overwhelming. But "runs" are more a function of the team's ability than Dustin himself. Pedey's OBP in 2008 was a pretty darn good .376. He was also lucky enough to be on the Red Sox. Put him on the Royals, and he's scoring a lot fewer runs.
4. Justin Morneau, Twins. Without him and his 129 RBIs, what does that lineup look like?
It's kind of funny that you say this, Jon, because without guys like Mauer and Span getting on base before Morneau, he wouldn't have had the opportunity to get those RBIs. Also, please see the thing about Mauer that I wrote later here.
5. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox. The Red Sox campaign is for Pedroia, but this guy is just as pesky (.569 slugging, 115 RBIs).
Must all Red Sox be described as "pesky" or "scrappy" or "gritty"? Really? Can we just stop this bullshit? Also, I'm not sure a guy with a .569 SLG can really be called "pesky" as much as "super powerful."
6. Joe Nathan, Twins. Another great, underappreciated Twins star.
Who's a relief pitcher.
7. Joe Mauer, Twins. Great two-way catcher who won another batting title (.330) and is easily the best in his business.
Justin Morneau, 2008: .300/.374/.499/.873, 134 OPS+, 129 wRC+, 3.5 WAR
By comparison, remember how Derek Jeter ZOMGSUCKEDHESDONE in 2008? 3.7 WAR. Boom.
Joe Mauer, 2008: .328/.413/.451/.864, 134 OPS+, 135 wRC+, 5.8 WAR
Morneau is a first baseman. Mauer is a catcher. There is no reason why Mauer should have been lower than Morneau on anyone's 2008 ballot. None. (or the 2009 ballot but thank God that didn't happen with anyone)
8. Jermaine Dye, White Sox. Unnoticed star had a nice season.
How can you be "unnoticed" and a "star"?
9. Josh Hamilton, Rangers. As talented as anyone playing, including A-Rod, and 130 RBIs doesn't hurt his cause.
The dig at A-Rod is because...? And the RBIs are a testament to his team's ability to get on base ahead of him more than his ability to hit. Though he is a very, very, very good hitter. .304/.371/.530/.901 134 OPS+ CFs don't exactly grow on trees. He didn't do that great according to WAR but apparently he was an abysmal fielder, so yeah.
Skipped #10 (it was Longo).
AL LVP: Richie Sexson, Mariners, Yankees. Hit .221 overall and was absolutely terrible on both coasts.
Fun fact: I completely forgot Richie Sexson was ever a Yankee. Probably because he had 35 PA. Anyway, in that tiny sample size, he had a .764 OPS for a 101 OPS+. That's not a world-killer. However, it is (very) slightly above average. Which would generally qualify as not "absolutely terrible."
NL Cy Young
1. Santana. Gets edge over CC for ERA title and for being in the NL all year.
2. Sabathia. Sheer second-half dominance.
This makes no goddamn sense. How can you choose Sabathia as your #2 on the MVP (with no other pitcher above him), and then NOT have him #1 on the Cy Young? I don't think he should have gotten either of those, but Heyman's irrationality annoys me.
Also, Ben Sheets sheds a single tear.
3. Lidge. Though tough to leave out Webb and especially Lincecum (18-5, with a league-leading 265 strikeouts) in this year with at least five deserving candidates.
Okay. You could explain why you chose Lidge. He had an awesome year. But he was a relief pitcher. It is insanity to leave off Lincecum, Webb, and Haren, among others, for Lidge.
NL Cy Old:
Oh my God that is the worst pun ever.
Tom Gorzelanny. Ugliest numbers ever, including a demonic 6.66 ERA.
I'm not going to look it up, but I am willing to bet that they are not the ~UGLIEST NUMBERS EVER~.
AL Cy Young
1. Cliff Lee, Indians. Once-in-a-decade type season for this reclamation project (22-3, 2.54 ERA).
I know three years is forever in baseball, but he was only three years removed from finishing fourth in the 2005 Cy Young voting (Jesus, the 2005 Cy Young voting was a hot freaking mess. Bartolo Colon winning was the worst of it, but Mariano getting more votes and more than twice as many first place votes than Johan Santana? Buerhle, Garland, and Millwood getting mega-screwed?).
2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays. The one pitcher in the league who can complete what he starts (nine complete games).
Any other explanation? No? Oh cool.
3. Francisco Rodriguez. Now holds the alltime saves record.
a. This is the worst explanation ever and not a reason to give someone the Cy Young. Also, it's not even right. Trevor Hoffman has the alltime saves record. (I know what he means. I'm just being picky and whiny.)
b. Again, Jon, you're doing the illogical thing. You can't have K-Rod be your #1 MVP and then only your #3 on your Cy Young ballot. That doesn't make any sense.
AL Cy Old:
That pun still pisses me off. Anyway, I'm skipping his choice (it was the D-Train) and I skipped his ROY selection, though I'm sure they were all dumb (eh, at least he didn't vote for Ellsbury over Longoria. That's something, right?).
NL Manager of the Year
1. Lou Piniella, Cubs. Changed the climate; new moniker should be lovable winners.
Yeahhh maybe not so much. Of course, it's always easy to look dumb in retrospect, but after the postseason and 2009, this is just wrong.
2. Joe Torre, Dodgers. Getting the last laugh from a distance.
Joe Girardi's Yankees, 2008: 89-73
other teams in the AL East: 97-65, 95-67, 86-76, 68-93
Joe Torre's Dodgers, 2008: 84-78
other teams in the NL West: 82-80, 74-88, 72-90, 63-99
Four of the teams in the 2008 AL East would have outright won the NL West. Four. And that's not even including the fact that if you moved them to the NL West, they'd get to beat up on the weak-ass NL West teams as opposed to facing each other over and over again.
3. Charlie Manuel, Phillies. Had the guts to bench Jimmy Rollins -- twice.
WTF? That's not a reason to vote for anyone.
NL Worst Manager: Bobby Cox, Braves. Finally won a one-run game on road, though.
Does this make any sense to anyone? Yeah, stupid Bobby Cox, you forced your GM to trade Mark Teixeira and his 137 OPS+ with Atlanta for Casey Kotchman and his 73 OPS+ with Atlanta! You also gave the team a pretty meh closer who gets hurt a lot! Boooo! I'm pretty sure Bobby Cox absolutely proves that managers are, generally, only as good as the teams they're given. Give him a team with a pretty good offense and an all-time great pitching staff and of course he'll make the playoffs a bunch of times. Doesn't mean he's a genius. Give him a sucky team and it'll suck. Doesn't mean he's a dumbass. No amount of coaching can make Casey Kotchman Mark Teixeira.
AL Manager of the Year
1. Joe Maddon, Rays. Brilliant performance by the Renaissance manager.
No quibble here.
2. Ron Gardenhire, Twins. Twins lost Santana, Torii Hunter and Matt Garza and got better.
Buuuuut probably not as good as they would have been with those guys, you know?
3. Mike Scioscia, Angels. Best in the game, year in and year out.
a. ew
b. if he's the "best in the game" why isn't he #1?
AL Worst Manager: Jim Leyland, Tigers. Got almost nothing out of what seemed like something.
I guess I should just be happy this isn't Girardi, huh?
NL Executive of the Year
1. Jim Hendry, Cubs. Built by far the best team in the NL.
2. Pat Gillick, Phillies. Lidge deal made the difference in the East.
These are two comments that are HILARIOUS in retrospect. I'm skipping stuff, so...
AL Executive of the Year
1. Andrew Friedman, Rays. Turned perennial laughingstock into Yankees/Red Sox slayer.
Not disagreeing with this (and I know what he means), I'm just gently pointing out that the TOTAL FAILURE OMG THEY SUCK SO MUCH 2008 New York Yankees were 11-7 against the 2008 Rays.
The rest of it is pretty banal but oooh, Heyman did one of these for 2009 too. I'll get to that goodness tomorrow (well, later today)
