After Game 1, there was a LOT of "HA how could anyone pick the Yankees to win, Phillies in 4!!!!" from the Phillies fans (actually, there was a lot of that before Game 1, but that's just Philadelphia fans for you). It's AMAZING that these people are darn near nowhere to be found now, but anyway. The point I'm really trying to make here is that Philly fans got all OFFENDED that many sportswriters chose the Yankees to win. When you go through the teams... this is very silly.
Also, consider this my belated analysis of the two teams. I'm sure it's nothing you haven't read before but... eh. Both the Yankees and the Phillies are extremely good and the Phillies are like the one NL team I actually really like watching (chicks dig the long ball!), but they both have their weaknesses, so I've tried to address those fairly. This post will probably be verrah, verrah long, so... yeah.
STARTING PITCHING
Cliff Lee has been the best starter for any playoff team. Remember before the NLDS Game 1 when all the Philly fans were taking Charlie Manuel to task for having him be the Game 1 starter over Cole Hamels? A lot of people were all ZOMG HE HAS NO POSTSEASON EXPERIENCE!!!! They look very silly now. That said, their rotation beyond Lee is decent but not particularly great, and we know that after Game 5, we more than likely won't see Lee again, save some crazy bullpen appearance.
Pedro Martinez has been strong so far in the postseason, but I have a pretty good feeling that the Yankees will do a better job against him the second time around, especially considering that he's had HUGE breaks in between all of his starts this year. For all the "three days rest ZOMG!!!" talk, Pedro - who was kinda fragile even in his unbelievably awesome prime - will be going on normal rest, as opposed to like, seven to twelve days' rest, for the first time this season. Maybe it'll fire him up, but it's worth noting.
Cole Hamels, who has been downright shitty this postseason, out-and-out saying he wants his season to be over, is the scheduled starter for Game 7, and Charlie Manuel is desperately loyal to his players to the point where it can backfire (hey sticking with Lidge as closer the entire season) so I don't see him changing his mind. I do not want to jinx anything but if it goes that far, good luck with that. Tonight, Joe Blanton is starting. Um, yeah. I have no idea why Charlie Manuel wouldn't consider starting JA Happ in Yankee Stadium for Game 6. He was one of the Phillies' better starting pitchers to begin with this season; he's a lefty, and though the Yankees can hit lefties, opposing pitchers who are lefties do better than righties at Yankee Stadium; and he had a strong start against the Yankees when they played during interleague, though the Yankees were a different team to an extent back then. But thanks for not doing that, Charlie.
As for the Yankees, I admit that the three-man rotation has me a little nervous, especially with the prospect of Andy Pettitte, who didn't exactly have amazing stuff last night (sorry Andy, I love you but it is true :( ) and who hasn't done it in years, going on three days' rest, but... you know, if anyone's gonna gut it out and get it done, it'll be Andy (again, see: last night). With his experience and the way he's been pitching since July or so, I honestly trust him in a big spot more than I trust almost any other pitcher not named Mariano Rivera.
Also, Sabathia is generally awesome on three days' rest in his career and he's got a pretty extensive history of that (the only time he was really bad was against - gulp - the Phillies in the NLDS last year, but that was like his fifth or sixth consecutive start on short rest because of his overuse to get the Brewers to a playoff spot and you could tell he just didn't have it. I fully expect the Citizens Bank Park to be merciless, but I fully expect him to be awesome just the same.). Burnett has a smaller sample size of starts on short rest, but he's also been very good. And, again, if this goes to Game 7, which GOD I HOPE NOT JUST GET IT DONE YANKEES, I honestly think the Yankees can handle whoever the Phillies throw out there, as long as it is not Game 1 Cliff Lee - and it won't be.
Edge: Yankees
BULLPEN
Though Hughes seems to have fallen off a cliff in a disturbingly rapid fashion, the prospect of Coke against the Philly lineup makes me nervous with his tendency to give up home runs, and lord knows we cannot trust Brian Bruney, that Philly bullpen is mediocre-to-pretty-bad. At least, for the Yankees, Joba, Marte (!!!!!!), and Robertson seem strong. As far as the Phillies bullpen, again, Happ is the only one that scares me, and we hit even him pretty hard last night.
As for closers... Brad Lidge, after a God-awful 2009, has been doing quite well in the postseason even though it's only been a small number of innings,* and when he is good he is damn near untouchable, but I'm sorry, as I'm sure you've heard endlessly, nobody compares to Mariano Rivera. Nobody. Here is the HUGE advantage to the Yankee bullpen: if the Yankees have a lead after seven innings, barring something terrible, we win. Even at his best, Lidge almost never went more than one inning. And, if Philly fans are throwing out the "we beat the Yankees two games out of three in the regular season, we'll win the World Series!!!" line (hint: it's more or less irrelevant, given the small sample size and the fact that it was May and both teams were very different at the time), I'll throw out the "Brad Lidge blew two saves against us" line. I don't think either of those is relevant right now, though. Just sayin'
Edge: Yankees
* Update after tonight: Um... maybe not? I won't lie, I feel bad for him. Every time we beat up on a relief pitcher/closer to get some epic late-inning comeback/walkoff, like 99% of the time, after my jubilation, I keep thinking "GOD I wish this was Papelbon and not this other person that seems perfectly nice." Case in point: Junichi Tazawa. But I digress. Seriously, though, WTF is wrong with Brad Lidge? We all thought he was dead after that Albert Pujols home run in the 2005 NLCS. He'd been lights out before that, but he was awful in the postseason after it and suffered for the entire 2006 season. Then, last year, he was obviously excellent and it seemed like he was back to form... but oh dear, he's totally fallen off a cliff again. He has terrific stuff as evidenced by him making Derek look stupid on that payoff pitch, but he just IMPLODED and very, very quickly.
1B
Neither of these guys is really contributing right now, but at least Teixeira did something with that home run off of Pedro that sort of got the offense started. Plus, he's taking his walks (and uh, his hit-by-pitches?). I also think he's the better player because he's a switch-hitter, doesn't strike out so darn often, and plays slightly better defense, though Howard is also very good.
Edge: Yankees, though not by all that much
2B
Before the series, I heard pretty much everyone - Yankee fans, Philly fans, random people - calling this area "more or less a tie." Uhhh are you kidding me? Even before Utley started his best Reggie Jackson/Babe Ruth imitation while Cano did nuttin' offensively in this series, I'd take Utley any day. In three years I dunno if that'll be the same, but right now Utley is one of the best players in baseball. He's probably the best second baseman out there. This isn't meant as a slight to Cano, who is both excellent and young and who aaaagh kills me with his lack of hitting this postseason, but Utley is just that damn good.
Edge: Phillies
SS
Defensively, Rollins beats Jeter, but it's apparently quite close this year and you could make a case for either one, really. Offensively, Jeter has a higher batting average than Rollins' on-base percentage. That's kind of ridiculous, considering that Rollins is the Phillies' leadoff hitter. Rollins' OBP is under .300. That's unbelievably awful. He can obviously threaten to steal, but dude, the guy's gotta get on base first, and he doesn't do that enough. Oh, and I love the fact that after bragging about how he could hit Mariano Rivera, he had a totally pathetic at-bat against him in Game 3. Awesome.*
Edge: Yankees
*Update: And Game 4.
3B
Hahahahahaha*
Edge: Yankees
* Pedro Feliz is excellent defensively, but he's Pedro Feliz and we're comparing him to Alex Fucking Rodriguez. Let's be real here.
C
Hahahahaha*
Edge: Yankees when anyone but Burnett pitches, Phillies when Burnett pitches
* Again, Carlos Ruiz is a great defensive catcher and like Feliz, he's done very well in the postseason the past two years. Plus he is from Panama, so, you know, extra awesome points. Buuuut Jorge Posada is the best offensive catcher not named Piazza or Mauer over the past ten years. Molina is also a very strong defensive catcher but his hitting is outright awful whereas Ruiz's is just kinda mediocre, so when Molina is catching, the Phillies do have an edge.
OF
Raul Ibanez has cooled down a lot after a red-hot start to the season, but he's playing injured and he's still a power threat. He also plays slightly better defense than Johnny Damon, though neither is fantastic. Damon can definitely hit, but he's been on-and-off this postseason. I'll take Ibanez over Damon, but it's close.* If Ben Francisco is playing, he can play better defense but ehhh, he can't really hit. He's a good choice for late-inning defensive substitutions, though.
Center field is not close. I like Melky and all, but Shane Victorino is a superior defender and hitter. I'm actually kinda surprised that Victorino's OPS+ isn't that great but he's not a power hitter so... yeah. Gardner is useful for his speed but I don't know if he's quite an everyday player right now. Like Francisco, though, he's a good defensive choice for close and late situations.
In right field, I'd take Werth over Swisher, especially this postseason. Swisher has had surprisingly awesome defense at times, but, save last night's game, his bat has been ice-cold. He's not even taking his ZOMG WALKS I LOVE MONEYBALL!!!!!. I really hope he totally breaks out after that game, but we'll see. Werth is terrifying, especially against lefties. The guy positively murders the ball. Like, those two pitches where he homered against Andy... those weren't even close to bad pitches, he just absolutely destroyed them. I haven't noticed/heard much about his defense either way, which means it's probably at least decent. And yes, at this position, I'd rather have a monster hitter who is a decent defender than an excellent defender who's hitting like Swisher, last night aside.
Edge: Phillies
* Update after Game 4: I take it back. You still kinda suck at defense but I love you Johnny!!!!
DH
I hope I'm not jinxing anything here but at this point, Matt Stairs is pretty much awful. Granted, he mostly plays a pinch-hitter role in the NL and that's always difficult, but I think I saw that he's batting like under .100 since July. Of course, I was very nervous when he was facing Mariano because a. I'm always nervous and b. if he hits anything, it's gonna be a home run, but he's just kind of funny to watch now. Raul Ibanez will give you better production for DH, but it means you have to put Ben Francisco's bat in the lineup. I guess at least Stairs is a power threat, and he did drive in the Phillies' lone run in Game 2. The Yankees have Matsui, who has been spotty this postseason (he'll be great, then he'll be bad, then he'll be awesome...), but he already has two home runs this World Series, including a pinch-hit home run in Philly, and is used to the DH role and was generally kind of awesome if streaky at times this year.
Edge: Yankees
OVERALL OFFENSE/LINEUP CONSTRUCTION/WHATEVER
Chase Utley. Ryan Howard. Raul Ibanez. Matt Stairs. What do they all have in common? They are terrifying to face because of the huge power threat - and they are all lefties who don't really do great against lefties.** Last night Andy Pettitte didn't have much of anything and he still completely shut down Utley, Howard, and Ibanez. Marte has done a great job dealing with those guys, too, and only Utley could get to Sabathia, though get to him he did. Lefties actually fare worse against Mariano Rivera than righties. I think it's a great advantage that the two guys at the top of the Philly lineup are switch-hitters, but they aren't hitting much to get on base.
The Yankees obviously do very well against right-handed pitching, but they don't fear lefties either. Teixeira and Posada are switch-hitters who hit lefties better, Tex significantly so. Jeter and Rodriguez are honestly two of the best right-handed hitters in Yankee history (I read an article before the ALCS that said the Angels had the advantage in their bullpen because their closer is a lefty. A-Rod says "yo, 'sup.") and Derek has a ~.400 batting average against lefties this season. Matsui is a lefty who absolutely crushes lefties; his slugging % is .465 against righties and .618 against lefties. Cliff Lee shut the Yankees down, but that was just Cliff Lee being awesome. The Yankees did a very good job against Hamels and the lefties in the Philly bullpen.
Jeter, the leadoff hitter, consistently gets on base. Heck, Andy Pettitte proved that even our pitchers can hit (first poseason Yankee pitcher RBI since I think 1964! First time in the World Series that an AL pitcher has tied the game since 1967, I think!). and I can't wait to see Sabathia club one tonight. I'm only half-joking, too. :P *
Edge: Yankees
* Update after Game 4: Dammit CC. Way to let me down. :P
** Update, months later: Uh, my bad, Utley and Ibanez might be lefties themselves but they murder lefties. Whatever, Pettitte did a really good job keeping them in check.
MANAGING
Ehhhhhh. I thought Girardi was basically giving away Game 2 by attempting to solve the Yankees' offensive woes by putting in lesser players based on stats from five years ago, but this actually worked as Molina walked and had a hit (I think), plus he had that awesome pick-off of Jayson Werth, and Hairston had that hit that let the third run eventually score. Honestly, it kinda reminded me of the dynasty years, where it seemed like there was a new hero every night, including random scrub players and rookies (Shane Spencer hit 10 home runs - including three grand slams - in 67 at-bats, and just look at what Scott Brosius did in the 1998 postseason!!!!), and every one of Torre's moves worked out more or less perfectly. That said, Girardi's "BUHHH WHAT???" moves this playoff series are quite huge and well-documented.*
I don't follow the Phillies as much as I do the Yankees, so I can't yell at Charlie Manuel or whatever. He seems to have a terrific influence over his players in the clubhouse, always an advantage, but I've seen him do incredibly stupid things, such as using Cliff Lee as a pinch-runner (why would you do that with your ace and risk injury?! Or maybe I'm just scarred for life because of what happened to poor Chien-Ming Wang :( ). I had to giggle when he used five pitchers in one inning in the Phillies' lone loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS. He also seems, like I said earlier regarding Hamels, way too loyal to his guys that are struggling badly, and Cliff Lee only being available for two games in this series really hurts his team. That said, because his guys won it all last year, I'll give him the edge here.
Edge: Phillies
* Update as of tonight: putting in the home-run-prone Coke in Citizen's Bank Park to face the scary top of the Philly order in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game would have been ENORMOUSLY stupid on Girardi's part. In fact, it reeks of when Torre put Weaver in over Mo in 2003 (which was probably the end of the Joe Torre ~magic). So thanks, Johnny, Alex, Jorge, and Brad, for saving Girardi from making that tremendously dumb decision. You could argue that Manuel also made a dumb decision putting in Lidge instead of keeping Madsen in, but Madsen had been kinda shaky the inning before and throughout the postseason, while Lidge seemed to have his stuff back during the postseason and he certainly did for the first two batters.
LEAGUE/DIVISION CONSIDERATIONS
The Yankees have the best record in baseball, with a ten-game advantage over the Phillies - and they play in the AL East. Despite the early "NL Least" jokes, the NL East was probably the strongest NL division this year, but the NL is simply an inferior league to the AL and the AL East in particular is positively ridiculous. Even an almost-100-loss team in the AL East, the Orioles, has a very strong offense. Put them in the NL West or Central or the AL Central and... I'm not saying they'd win the division or even have a winning record, but I don't think they'd be circling 100 losses, that's for sure. The fourth-place team, the Blue Jays, has one of the five best pitchers in baseball and two Silver Sluggers. The Rays have a potent and very speedy offense. They're in the top ten teams this year. The Yankees and Red Sox were in the top five/ten teams in baseball this year (Yankees are #1 and the Sox are in the top ten, if not the top five), have been pretty much throughout the 2000s, and more than likely will be for years to come. The AL East is a scary place and the Yankees thrived there. Of course, it didn't give the Rays a World Series title last year, but the Yankees of 2009 are much better than the 2008 Rays.
Edge: Yankees
So...
Starting pitching: Yankees
Bullpen: Yankees, significantly
1B: Yankees, but it's close
2B: Phillies, not particularly close especially because Cano isn't hitting
3B: Yankees, not close
SS: Yankees
C: generally Yankees
OF: Phillies
DH: Yankees
Overall offense/lineup construction: Yankees
Managing: Phillies
Division/league difficulty consideration: Yankees
I'm sorry, but the Yankees have a clear advantage, at least on paper. The Phillies are a great team. I don't know if they're ABSOLUTELY THE BEST in the National League like everyone was saying when they clinched the division (I still think that might be the Cardinals, but they were doomed the second they were 0-2 in games that Wainwright and Carpenter started), but if they're second it's a very close second, and really, they're excellent. Their ridiculous firepower (yes, I say that as a Yankee fan, because you just don't see offenses like that in the National League) and the way they EASILY dispatched of the very good Dodgers made me extremely nervous, plus anything can happen in a short series (if the ALCS/WS were best-three-of-five like the ALDS, the 2001 World Series doesn't break my heart and we're not talking about any sort of epic choke in the 2004 ALCS. The Nationals won two out of three from the Yankees this year. It happens.), and I'm certainly not counting them out now. But their fans acting like it was ridiculous and MEDIA BIAS! to pick the Yankees is very stupid.
That was... long.
