Last acting category, yay.
5. Johnny Depp,
Sweeney Todd.
I haven't really been too nice to Mr. Depp in the past, but being in Spain for like four months made me kind of get over it because I was separated from IMDb and all the scary Johnny Depp fans. That said, this is by far the least of the Actor nominees. Johnny isn't bad at all, but he's been given one of the greatest characters in history and he just could have done so much more with it. He strikes a mean, terribly intimidating figure, and has a few moments where he's great, but half the time he's just glowering. Helena Bonham Carter completely steals the movie away from him, and she's not even that great. Hey, it's better than his last two nominations, though...
Why he might win: Everyone loves Johnny Depp and wants to see him get an Oscar sooner or later (everyone except me =/). Globe winner.
Why he might not: Not Daniel Day-Lewis. No precursors. Oscar clearly didn't like his film very much.
4. George Clooney,
Michael Clayton.
George gets a lot of badmouthing for "always playing George Clooney," and I don't think that's accurate. What I do think is accurate is that he has this amazing screen presence that feels the same in every movie. At any rate, Clooney's performance in
Michael Clayton isn't just "Clooney being Clooney," though he undoubtedly taps into his movie star mojo and incredible charisma for effect at times. The man is magnetic, but he's also unbelievably layered; look at his eyes when he sees the horses. And it might be obvious, but that taxi ride at the end -
damn. He also just perfectly captures a man who is absolutely tired of the shit the law profession puts him through. Oh, how I love the Cloons.
Why he might win: He's George Clooney and they love him. The couple of awards Daniel Day-Lewis didn't get, he did. Title character in a Best Picture nominee.
Why he might not: Not Daniel Day-Lewis. He just won.
3. Viggo Mortensen,
Eastern Promises.
Well, let's get one thing out of the way first: Viggo Mortensen is almost unbearably sexy in this movie, quite frankly. And no, it ain't cuz of the nude scene. Viggo's character choices in
Eastern Promises are so specific and he absolutely transforms what could have been a stock "gangster" role (but is anything "stock" in a Cronenberg movie?) into a true character. And yet - here is another great thing about his performance - Mortensen doesn't hide the mystery of this character. Up until that steam bath scene, Mortensen seems to do nothing but wait. He's clearly dangerous and involved in the Russian Mafia... but what attracts us, and Anna? It's some humanity bubbling under the surface, beneath those sunglasses in those reptilian eyes. I don't even know how Viggo gets that all across, but he does. I've read that the steam bath scene in
Eastern Promises has no point, and it's just spectacular filmmaking without any real point in the story, but this isn't true; it's needed to release all the near-unbearable tension the movie's been moving toward, which Viggo's tightly coiled performance absolutely contributes to, and well, he rips loose in that scene (naked! killing people!). At the end of the movie, Viggo's secret gets revealed, and yet he still feels like some kind of unknowable mystery. Somehow, this isn't a "OMG what was up with that character Viggo had no idea what he was doing" mystery. No idea how he pulled that off either, but yeah. It's Viggo. He's amazing. I love how I changed in that description from "Mortensen" to "Viggo" very suddenly and abruptly...
Why he might win: Raving fans.
Why he might not: Not Daniel Day-Lewis. No precursors. The movie had no other Academy support besides him.
2. Tommy Lee Jones,
In the Valley of Elah.
As I've said before, Oscar loves big. It loves loud. It loves showy. And that, my friends, is why this performance has absolutely no chance of winning. THINK of all the screaming and huffing and puffing Tommy Lee Jones could have done to show his hurt! But...here's the thing. He never does. Jones* manages to get across oceans of tragedy without even shedding a tear. Hank Deerfield has so many layers (partially thanks to Paul Haggis. SUCK IT, HATERS.), and somehow - again, these top three really just leave me in awe at
how they do it, but they do it - Jones manages to accomplish getting across these many layers in, often, just a glance. I was never really impressed by Tommy Lee Jones before. I'd seen a lot of his movies, but I always kind of thought of him as a. the non-Will Smith character in
Men in Black or b. the robber of Ralph Fiennes' Oscar. Thanks to 2007, though, with this and
No Country for Old Men, I have a completely new respect for him. He can be absolutely amazing indeed, like he is here.
Why he might win: Respected veteran. PAUL HAGGIS MANIA. He was considered the frontrunner...in like, September.
Why he might not: Not Daniel Day-Lewis. Film was
teeeeeny. The surprise nominee almost never wins. The movie has no other Academy support.
1. Daniel Day-Lewis,
There Will Be Blood.
What can I say? What can I possibly, possibly say about this performance that hasn't been said already a million times by people more eloquent than I am? So, one more time for the seats in the back - "DRAAAAAAIIIIIINAAAAAGEEEE!!! ... Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There is is, that's a straw, you see? You watching? And my straw reaches acroooossss the room and starts to drink your milkshake. I...drink...your...milkshake. SLUUUUURRRRPPPP!!! I DRINK IT UP!!!!!"
Why he might win: HE. DRINKS. YOUR. MILKSHAKE. Oh, and he's the frontrunner and has won virtually every critics' award in existence. And he's been ludicrously raved (and for good reason). And he's Daniel Day-Lewis. And a Best Picture nominee is all about him.
Why he might not: Honestly, I can't think of any reason.
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis.
Might win: If
Sweeney Todd was a little bigger and Depp hadn't missed the SAGs and stuff, I'd be a little more worried about Depp's chance at upsetting but...no.
Dark horse: Never underestimate the power of the Clooney Star Mojo. But...yeah it's probably not going to lead to a win here.
Snubbed: The top four here is pretty tremendous, but as far as the three youngins that got snubbed (MacAvoy, Hirsch, and Gosling), I would definitely have preferred MacAvoy and Hirsch over Depp (sorry, Ryan, I thought you were mostly rubbish, as was
Lars and the Real Girl. Oh well, you've got your Pulpy from last year to make you feel better, plus if you need some personal comfort you can always call me ;) ) Also, how did Julie Christie get
all the attention in
Away from Her? Gordon Pinsent more than held his own marvelously. It also confuses me how Josh Brolin was snubbed absolutely everywhere for
No Country for Old Men, as the other three main members of the cast got nominated at least somewhere (Bardem, Jones, and MacDonald). He was excellent, too.
*Lee Jones? I never know
