Analyzing: You guessed it...Best Actress.

Whole lot louder and a whole lot worse (that wasn't intended to describe #5 and #4 on this list, but as it so happens...).

5. Marion Cotillard, La vie en rose.

When I first saw La vie en rose, I thought the movie was terrible but Marion was okay; she had some good scene work but it wasn't cohesive. Then, I took a re-view and - yikes, what was I thinking there? What is the Academy thinking? What are all her fans thinking? This performance is tremendously loud and showy but it brings us - or at least me - absolutely nowhere emotionally. To be fair, it's partially the film's fault, absolutely destroying any chance she had of creating a cohesive character, but she still wasn't any good. Yeah, I guess she "transformed," through about eighty pounds of makeup (to be fair, that nomination was completely deserved). She never, ever bought me into the emotional life of this character. "Bonus" bad points for having the most annoying fans of the year.
Why she might win: Won the Globe and BAFTA. Her fans are very...enthusiastic. She's the one that probably got her film those extra Oscar nominations. Yes, as everyone points out, she's gorgeous and extremely charming in real life. Oscar loves a big showy biopic performance.
Why she might not: Still not the frontrunner, no matter what the Cotillard fans keep friggin' saying. Go away already. In a foreign film. In most direct Christie vs. Cotillard fights, Christie wins (NBR, SAG, BFCA, critics awards - she only got the BAFTA away from Christie, and they do love foreign performances and clearly loved La vie en rose).

4. Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

In my humble opinion, this nomination is purely symbolic. It means that Cate Blanchett is the new Meryl Streep - not in terms of acting ability, but as far as the Academy goes, she will get nominated for anything she does in the future, no matter what the quality. Yikes. Again, what was the Academy thinking? I don't think Blanchett here is as bad as Marion is, though. She's clearly having fun with her totally ridiculous role. I mean, when you're given lines to deliver like "all my bitches wear my collars" (that aren't meant to be ironic) and you sort of pull it off, that takes skill. That said, in the first Elizabeth movie C.Blah totally had nuance and fire. I get where the obsession with her in that movie comes from, even if she's not my personal win. But here? It was totally empty. She screams a lot, and wears fantastic giant outfits, but can't command the screen, nevertheless the wind, and nevertheless - thank God - a win.
Why she might win: She's Cate Blanchett. According to the crazies on her IMDb message board, the Academy "will feel that they owed her for the first Elizabeth movie and reward her for this one." Apparently they also want to "reward Cate Blanchett in lead." The movie basically exists to get her an Oscar nomination.
Why she might not: No precursors. Pretty much universally acknowledged as the worst nominee with the least chances of winning. If they really wanna vote for Cate, they'll vote for her in I'm Not There, which is absolutely without a doubt the better performance.

3. Ellen Page, Juno.

Tremendous jump in quality. I really didn't like Page at all in Hard Candy, in a horrendous role that was both overwritten and underwritten but that she really added nothing to. So when I heard raves about her in Juno, and saw the preview, I wasn't terribly excited. It looked like another Garden State, which I hated for its need to be incredibly hip and its lack of profundity. But then I saw Juno and, miracle of miracles: it was great. And so was Ellen Page. Maybe the reason the film's screenplay works as well as it does is because of her performance. Given bizarre dialogue, she completely pulls it off and sounds totally natural. She doesn't ever mug for attention, like other actors and actresses in comedy often do; she just says the lines pitch-perfectly. And yes, she is hilarious, but at the same time, she somehow manages to get across the idea that, at times, Juno just uses her snarkiness and slang as a defense mechanism. But the best parts of her performance, for me, are her less comedic moments, and more dramatic ones, like when she is in the bed with Paulie toward the end of the film, right after she's had her child. In these scenes, we see Juno's depth - was this what she was using her sarcasm to defend against? Though she's a smart-aleck and kind of an ass, we really feel for her.
Why she might win: Her movie made the most money - by farrrrr (the other movies are fucking small) - of all the nominees in this category. Newcomer who everyone seems to like. Playing the title character in a Best Picture nominee never hurts. Juno had more support than we thought (Director?). Roger Ebert's on her side!
Why she might not: Not the frontrunner. Failed to win the Globe. Juno backlash?

2. Julie Christie, Away from Her.

I am of two minds about Away from Her. First, I'm in awe that someone as young as Sarah Polley could pull off such an incredibly mature, deftly measured film. On the other hand, I'm a wee bit like "Sarah? Are you alive in there? You're not even thirty. Your films are already a wee bit stagnant. Show some passion dammit!" One thing I've never been of two minds about in Away from Her, though, is the magnificent Julie Christie. True, I, like many, may have been drawn in by her mere gloriousness, but I do think it's an absolutely wonderful performance. The mixture of strength, resignation, and utter terror against what she faces is simply fascinating and well-layered. And I don't see how people call her performance "boring" or "staid;" again, maybe it's just because of her magical fairy dust, but Julie Christie just sparkles on screen. She's got it, baby. She's had it for over forty years, and she ain't losing it now. That said - her performance had (way) more to it than that "I'd like you to make love to me, and then I'd like you to leave..." scene. It's the "*plate smash* EVERYTHING!" of 2007. Please show us something different!
Why she might win: Frontrunner. She's Julie Christie, legend and icon. Baity role. You know she got her film that Screenplay nomination.
Why she might not: Marion Cotillard's hype. I really don't think she gives a shit about the Oscars, at all.

1. Laura Linney, The Savages.

Laura Linney doesn't act. She simply is. That's the only excuse I can think of when it comes to her lack of Oscar love. She's just too natural. Oscar loves 'em showy or baity. They need a hook. They don't usually like normal if flawed characters - real characters, like the ones Linney excels at portraying. It's no different in The Savages. She doesn't just know this character, she is this character. I know this sounds stupid and generic, but it's true. The Savages wouldn't work without the psychological insight she (and to be fair, Hoffman and Bosco) provides to her character. And though Wendy Savage is prickly, neurotic, and has self-esteem issues, Linney stops her from being a downer with her wit and perfect comedic timing. Ahhhh, I love her. She is a national treasure.
Why she might win: Um...she's been popping up on those ballots they keep showing us with surprising frequency. She's the only American in this group. She's Laura Linney, dammit!!!
Why she might not: Not the frontrunner, and failed to get any precursors at all (I figured her chances were dead when she missed the Indie Spirit nom). Her nomination was an absolute shock - when the heck is the last time the shock nominee won the Oscar?

Will win: Normally, I'd say Christie. But all those "OMG LOOK AT THE SECRET OSCAR BALLOTS!!!!" things keep coming out, and Cotillard gets mentioned depressingly often (though everyone keeps saying "I don't think she'll win, but I voted for her anyway"). I'm gonna go with Cotillard and hope I'm wrong.
Might win: Christie, though, is probably still the frontrunner for a reason.
Dark horse: I think the money thing (and the Best Picture nomination thing) might come into play for Ellen Page. These other films are teeeeeeeny.
The snubbed: AMY FUCKING ADAMS. If we're going with badly-reviewed movies in Best Actress, Jodie Foster in The Brave One trumps Cate Blanchett times a billion. I didn't love Angelina Jolie but I would have been way happier to see her get nominated than Cate Blanchett. And of course, there are the performances that are so good but that horrify me in their lack of any precursor mentions...