Before I start, let me just say that Oscar's Best Picture lineup this year is the best in an extremely long time. Every year that I can think of has a film that I would have gone "NOOOOOO!!!!" if it won Best Picture. This year? Not at all. I've rated all these films A- or better. So, sorry to say, this is probably just going to be a lot of gushing (sometimes literally, in the case of
There Will Be Blood. HA. So funny, I am.). The claws ain't comin' out on this one.
5.
Juno.
People are such bullshit. Everyone always complains about how comedy movies and comedic roles don't get nominated for Oscars, and then when they do -
Little Miss Sunshine,
Juno, Marisa Tomei, Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt in
As Good As It Gets - they get hopelessly bashed as "lightweight" or (as
Sunshine and
Juno have faced) "pretentious." You can't have it both ways, so just shut up. Anyway,
Juno has been dismissed by many as pretentious and hopelessly hipster. And whenever I hear people bash it as the latter (ALWAYS citing the "homeskillet," "etch-a-sketch," or "honest to blog" line), I have to wonder - did these people see the movie beyond the first twenty minutes? Cuz I wanted to shoot myself the first twenty minutes, too. But then, lo and behold, the pretense fell away, and we came to realize - Juno talks like this as a shield. As the movie goes on, it only gets better and better. Is it overwritten? Probably. But that doesn't stop real character arcs from happening. The ending is
beyond perfect. Diablo Cody could have fucked it up in any number of ways, but it just strikes a
perfect chord. Lovely. This is the weakest of the five nominees, if only because of the near-unbearable first twenty minutes (and those are -
I am so sorry, Dwight - kind of Rainn Wilson's fault), but it picks up so much after that that the first twenty minutes are absolutely forgiveable. A win for it would still be lovely.
My grade: A-
Why it might win: The happiest,
by far, of the Best Picture nominees. The biggest money-maker,
by far, of the Best Picture nominees. The fact that it got the Best Director nomination proves it has a lot more support than we thought. Roger Ebert!
Why it might not: It has its very loud detractors. It skews very young and the Academy...does not. It lost the Globe to a movie that wasn't even nominated for Best Picture. It's got the least nominations of all the Best Picture-nominated films. Not
No Country for Old Men.
4.
Michael Clayton.
also gets bashed a lot. I don't get its bashing either, other than the fact that everyone who seems to do it is like, 16, which I can understand. It is a tad underdirected, but that's understandable as it's Tony Gilroy's first film, which is actually amazing when you consider its quality.
Michael Clayton is a total throwback to the films of the 1970s, where films were bold and actually critiqued society and those that were powerful within it. This film does that with both huge corporations and the law profession. I love
Law and Order, but
Michael Clayton is like an incredibly deep episode of that show that actually says something about society.
It's not nearly as prophetic or darkly funny as
Network but it functions in much the same way, even with Wilkinson's character being a ton like Peter Finch. Also, the three lead performances are just great.
My grade: A-
Why it might win: Vote-splitting? George Clooney. Everyone loves a legal drama! Some viewers may love the throwback to the '70s.
Why it might not: It's the least showy/flashy of these nominees by
far, and it doesn't have the passionate supporters the other four have. It's probably the most likely to be forgotten or ignored. It isn't the frontrunner in
any of its nominated categories. Not
No Country for Old Men.
3.
Atonement.
is a movie people are either
scary batshit crazy over (some guy on IMDb was saying something along the lines of that there is no excuse for people not having it in their top 5, but in a much scarier way than that that I basically blocked out of my head for my own sanity) or spend all their time, like, insulting. I see where the insulters and detractors come from, and before I saw it I thought I might be one of them, what with the sniffly Keira Knightley and the overrated James MacAvoy starring in this film - but then I saw it, and it was in fact, really really good and, at least for me, incredibly touching, so yeah. I gotta hand it to
Atonement. The ending is either going to hit you like a sack of bricks and make you realize how damn sad the past two hours were, or is going to make you go "wait, I sat through that
for this?" There's no getting around it, and I see both sides (though I clearly side with the former). Why does it feel like I'm just backhandedly insulting
Atonement the entire time I've been writing this? It's a truly great movie. Also,
Atonement deserves bonus points for just getting the damn thing on screen. It's an incredible book but I never once thought "This would make a great movie." But, it did. Kudos, Joe Wright & Co.
My grade: A-
Why it might win: Prestige picture. The frontrunner
forever or at least until the guilds attacked. Literary prestige. Even amazingly horrific scenes somehow look like gorgeous postcards and the Academy loves that shit. It won the Globe against
No Country.
Why it might not: Tell me the last film that won without Editing and Director nominations. Totally ignored by the guilds. Couldn't get its flashiest stars to a nomination. Lately, the Globe Drama winners don't win Best Picture (since 2002, only one of them has, and that's because what else was going to win in 2003 besides
Lord of the Rings?). Not
No Country for Old Men.
2.
No Country for Old Men and
There Will Be Blood just reduce my brain to mush. I just... al068u4okjafls. Okay, to talk about
No Country, I'll have to use another great great movie,
The Departed.
The Departed is amazing (and quite frankly, I
like it more than
No Country, but it's probably not the better movie). Do you all remember that scene where Matt Damon's character first gets the phone number to Leonardo DiCaprio's character's phone and calls him and they just sit there...in silence...?
No Country for Old Men is like that the
entire movie. Add to that gorgeous cinematography, incredible acting, and a feeling that this entire little story has repercussions for the whole world, somehow, and it's just...gahhhh.
My grade: A
Why it might win: Frontrunner! Hooray, it's got Editing & Director nods (and many other nominations). Coen brothers. Best-reviewed film of the year. Won most precursors. Actually made a pretty darn good amount of money for an Oscar film.
Why it might not:
Atonement beat it at the Globes. Too violent or dark?
1.
There Will Be Blood.
aflsjfljlg. Really, I just...I...I wanted to write a review of
There Will Be Blood, but I had to hold it off.
There Will Be Blood is one of those films you see and just "...". And then, you have to forget it, so you can do normal things like eat and sleep. It's just...brain. fried. I'm not gonna lie: even when the trailer first came out, I wasn't so sure how good this was gonna be. I'm afraid I was still terribly wary from
Punch-Drunk Love. But this...this...gahhhhhh. How is it that PT Anderson and company manage to borrow and work on so many movies of the past, and yet advance cinema so far at once? I know, my write-ups for
No Country for Old Men and
There Will Be Blood just come off as stupid and overly general. That's because they're the best kind of movies - the kind that do not leave your head once they get there, the ones you can't describe as "oh, that was good" and that's that. Just...I...I'm finished. ;)
My grade: A
Why it might win: If it makes me feel this way, I imagine it makes others feel this way too. Editing & Director nods and many other nominations. Daniel Day-Lewis. It's period material, but the issues are contemporary. I would say that its supporters are the most passionate. Won the few precursors
No Country didn't (besides the Globe).
Why it might not: If the Oscar voters think
No Country is bleak, I'd love to hear what they thought about this one. It's got its detractors that say it's too over-the-top. Not
No Country for Old Men.
Will win:
No Country for Old Men.
Might win:
There Will Be Blood has very passionate supporters and is being thrown about as a possible spoiler, but I dunno. I don't really see it happening (though I'd be thrilled if it did).
Dark horse:
Juno's light touch, place in pop culture, and $$$ might lead it to victory.
Snubbed: If we're talking about the three other films that were also thrown around for Best Picture, those would be
Into the Wild,
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and
Sweeney Todd. I haven't seen
Diving Bell (it's finally playing at the teeny indie theater near me, so I really really hope either tonight or some time next week I have time to see it), and I prefer all of these to
Into the Wild and
Sweeney Todd by far.
Blaaaargh. Final predictions coming later. And I guess my personal awards will have to wait until either tomorrow before the show (if I have time, which I probably won't) or Monday...
