...and I say hello.

Back, again. But stumped for ideas. I guess my top 15 most anticipated films of the year shall be coming shortly.

Computer problems.

Please stand by for further posting...eventually.

In lieu of an actual Oscar post...

Just because. Again. CATE YOU ARE AMAZING.

I'm just going to link to pictures and make snarky comments. Ya'll can just deal. You give me a boring (though far from objectionable) ceremony, Oscar, I give you a boring Oscar wrap-up post!
Firstly, since I'm probably not going to have the opportunity to address this through pictures: yes, Jon Stewart was fantastic again. I hope he hosts next year. As opposed to last year where 90% of the humor was from not the host, this year 90% of the humor was from the host. So many great bits - "Too often, the Academy ignores films that aren't good;" the line about black/women presidents and the asteroids; "staying the course" with Iraq films; Atonement and Yom Kippur (the Jews are right here, Jon!); him playing Wii; "man, that guy is so arrogant" after Glen Hansard's modest and heartfelt speech; Jack and the pregnant ladies; teen pregnancy as comic relief; Away from Her as the feel-good movie of the year; Lawrence of Arabia on his IPod; Cate Blanchett is everywhere; Dennis Hopper; and, of course, how incredibly classy it was when he bought Marketa back out to make her speech. LOVE him.

Many many thanks to IMDb, since this is basically just going to be me linking to their pictures and putting captions under them (too lazy and "I JUST WANNA GET THIS OVER WITH" to upload 'em all). Clever, I am...

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2845873664

George Clooney is the king of Hollywood. What is he even doing in this picture? I don't know. But...he can do whatever he wants. He's George Clooney. LOVE.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2829096448
I don't like this movie at all and this picture just absolutely warms the cockles of my heart. LOOK HOW CUTE. More on Once and the Oscars later; needless to say, I now feel like a completely heartless ogre for not liking it ;_;

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2862650880
I think Sarah Larson is a Moppet. YOU'RE AT THE OSCARS! WITH GEORGE CLOONEY!!!!! You should show emotion!!! And wear a dress that doesn't look like very expensive curtains!!! Okay, I am terribly jealous and that helps.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3047200256
Amy Ryan looks really pretty but embodies the "OMG it's my first Oscar nomination I'm a stage actress I don't know what to do I'll just play it safe!!!" line of thought. In this particular picture, she also looks younger than Saoirse Ronan.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3013645824
LOL, Paul Haggis. ROCK. I'm surprised, I haven't seen one "OMG PAUL HAGGIS WAS THERE AGAIN HE NEEDS TO DIE!!!!" post.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3147863552
Diablo Cody was probably the worst-dressed on Oscar night, but somehow I would have been disappointed if she wasn't.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2661324288
James McAvoy is so hot without the ratty little beard, but when he has it, like 90% of my attraction to him just evaporates. That's one hot accent, though. And he can repartee with the best of 'em. Still, he just looked like a ratty short dude with bad bad hair on Sunday night. Sorry, James. You were really good in Atonement! And your wife's dress is a pretty pretty color!

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3818952192
"I'm Tommy Lee Jones and I have no chance of winning - not that it matters, I already have one - so I'm just gonna hold on to this pole. It worked for Diablo..."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2577438208
Patrick Dempsey is also hot and I don't care how generic my opinion is in this matter SO THERE.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm4154496512
Laura Linney was just a bucket of smiles and sunshine the entire awards show. She has such a lovely, warm smile. LOVE HER. Not a particularly risky fashion choice, but she makes great acting look easy and she makes looking great look easy as well.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm4037056000
"Guys, I made you a biopic. A musical biopic. And you couldn't even throw me a frickin' Best Original Screenplay nod, just one for the chick as a dude that was guaranteed the day she was cast. I hate you all. But I'm still here."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3483407872
I wonder if they're gonna make out again...

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3600848384
This dress is gorgeous, but Anne can't...quite...pull...it...off for some reason. I'm going to pretend that's for a reason other than I just don't like her, but it's probably not. Fantastic dress, though.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3751843328
Helen Mirren is still totally hot in case you were wondering. Bitch, those sleeves are crystal!

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3667957248
That's gonna be one gorgeous baby. Jessica Alba pulls off that dress even with the weird feathers.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3634402816
Keri Russell is very pretty, and she was very good in Waitress and uh, she was in August Rush too so I guess she had a good year, but she's like basically wearing Marion Cotillard's SAG dress right? Right?

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm648123904
This is right before The Buseying 2008, I believe. I love afterwards on that video clip; Laura Linney is just like "oh, look, another interview..." and she drags Jen Garner off and you see her talking to/comforting Jen in the background. Class act, that Linney.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm564237824
"Worship my hot body. You know if I was ten years older I would have never won!" (The dress is well-played, Miss Marion. I don't know why anyone disliked it.)

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm1017222656
"I'm kind of amazed I'm not dead yet."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm983668224
Oh, Colin. Yes, you are genetically blessed in that you are very good-looking. No, this does not mean you can attend the Oscars with greasy unwashed hair and a severe lack of shaving. Also, on Sunday, whenever any Irish person spoke, I was like "whaaaa?" It's a great accent to be sure, but I needed subtitles.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm950113792
Ladies and gentlemen! Come one, come all! See a man pull off earrings! And weird brown piping on his suit!

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm44144128
Johnny Depp ain't never gonna change. I feel like it is pointless to even acknowledge him at this point.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm60921344
Javier Bardem has to hold off his crowd of newfound adoring female fans. I'm among them. DROOOOOOL.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm211916288
Viggo Mortensen is almost unbearably sexy most of the time, but then sometimes he shows up with like three months' worth of beard and a weirdly glassy look and I'm just like "ooh, even you can't really do this." He is pulling off the coat though, for what it's worth.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm161584640
Cate Blanchett looked amazing on Sunday, plus she has this Cate Blanchett Aura that just knocked me off my chair whenever she was on screen. Plus, she had the greatest moment of the night with that picture at the tippy-top. I think I am a little in love with her now. Stop me! Stop me, before I nominate her for Notes on a Scandal! Or Elizabeth: The Golden Age!

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm144807424
Rebecca Miller thought her dress was okay, but would not be totally complete without a last-minute run to the Arts 'N Crafts store for some bizarrely mismatching red ribbons (a tribute to There Will Be Blood? Maybe?) and a GIANT JEWEL BREASTPLATE FLOWER THING. What the hell?

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm295802368
That's how you pull off a stunning red dress, Hathaway.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm1956746752
I can't decide whether I liked this or not. On one hand, it's very pretty. On the other, it's even more boring than Amy Ryan's. On one hand, OMG SPARKLY. On the other hand, those things were off-center when she was presenting and OH MY GOD, IT DISTRACTED ME.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2124518912
I am hoping that is not Amy Adams' boyfriend. *IMDbs* Oh, it's the guy who wrote The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. I'm...still not sure why Jesus is hangin' all over him.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm1335989760
I always forget that they're together. Harrison looks like he farted and is giggling about it. /maturity

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm1285658112
I LOVE Steve Carell. It just cracks me up that his wife was on The Office and their characters dated, but broke up (boo! Carol was so much better than mean ol' Jan). I'll talk about Steve more later...

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm1268880896
Cameron: HAHAHAHAH SEAN YOU ARE SOOOOO FUNNY!!!! FUNNY!!!! TEEHEE!!!!
P. Diddy or whatever he goes by: Sofia Coppola was so right...

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm1470207488
God, they are a gorgeous couple. How hot is Josh Brolin? *drool*

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm1403098624
ELLEN! Could this dress be any more boring??? Yes you are pretty! Yes you look good in it! BUT IT IS THE OSCARS.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2795607552
The greatest Oscar couple I've ever seen. Spike looks like a pimp, which pleases me enormously. Wesley Snipes is...how did he get in the country? Doesn't matter, really. His suit is bright purple.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3047265792
"My wife's tits are gonna pop out and I still won't smile. You can't make me. My brother got the joy gene."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3030488576
"Keep trying as long as you want, Mr. Photographer Man. Seriously, I can be in the middle of Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt and I'm still not really smiling. I can be clowning around with awesome Don Cheadle - don't you just love Don Cheadle? - and I'm still not really smiling. For God's sake, even Clooney makes me only look sort of stoned. YOUR OSCARS DO NOT AMUSE ME."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2627835392
I'm not gonna lie: I really don't like Penelope Cruz. And after a semester in Spain, too, I know, the shame ._. Yeah, she was really good in Volver and her other work with Almodovar, but I'm not falling all over myself to nominate her (Streep, Dern, Dench, Watts, Dunst, Weisz, Winslet, Mirren, Gyllenhaal, and Blanchett - German, duh, not Notes - were all better) and her work in English films is so bad it undoes all the good she gained from me for Volver. I don't like this dress either; I think it would have been much better to just cut it off after that layer of fuzzy stuff around her knees-ish, because as is right now it looks like it's demonstrating The Wonders of Puberty.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm3919681024
"I'm fabulous? Sort of? No? Okay I'll just go back to standing here."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm4288779776
I'll say it: Renee Zellweger's dress is gorgeous and flawless. If it was on anyone else, it would be getting raves and best-dressed lists everywhere. Unfortunately, Renee has to apparently have no eyes any more. Gah. I miss Bridget Jones' Diary. ;_; And with both Clooney and Zellweger present, they totally missed an opportunity to invite John Krasinski and promote Leatherheads like they promoted Get Smart.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm4120942080
Juno's BFFL is wearing a really styled garbage bag? Honest to blog? SORRY. COULDN'T RESIST.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2124649984
FIX YOUR BANGS. I say it cuz I love, Jen.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2091095552
This is the lowest-watt Laura Linney's smile was on the entire night.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2107741696
I love Sarah Polley. She should already have an Oscar for her acting in The Sweet Hereafter, but whatever. There was also an amazing picture somewhere of her with Julie Christie.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_arrivals-rm2393150976
OMG WHERE ARE HIS PAJAMAS???? On an unrelated note, I felt so proud of myself because I picked up that Vanity Fair with the Hitchcock photos and one of the headlines was "The Apartment New York Can't Stop Buzzing About" or something like that and I was like "oh, the Schnab's." And I was right.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_press-rm111318528
I enjoy this picture because it looks like Javier is saying something she doesn't understand (en espanol?) and she's just looking at him in a sort of "whatever, I'll indulge you cuz you're hot!" way.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_press-rm228759040
Oh, Tilda. I love her now, sort of. I love how she's like "I'm holding my Oscar up! Oscar! Yay! That's, like, what I'm supposed to do, right? This is so weird, I've never even been to one of these things before..."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_press-rm178427392
Amy seems to dangerously incline against any man put in her vicinity. Or, Oscar is pulling her in because it knows she is its rightful owner. It knows!

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_press-rm3298989568
"I'm so confused.."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_press-rm3332544000
This is what I believe the kids refer to as "fucking hotness."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_press-rm3416430080
I LOVE how these two were accepting their award and they were like "we really feel sympathy for the gay women this documentary portrayed, because we are ABSOLUTELY NOT IN THAT GROUP. WE ARE HETEROSEXUAL MARRIED WOMEN WITH CHILDREN." I sort of love the dress on the one on the left.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_press-rm1537447424
"Oscar! Eet ees so delightful!"

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_press-rm1503892992
"Yay. Oscar. Whoooooo. I'm really excited."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm1654822400
"And then I said, eureka! If I just keep doing solid-to-great supporting work, I'll never be noticed, but if I slap on 75 pounds of makeup to play a real-life person and give a performance more hammy than Easter dinner, I'm a guaranteed Oscar winner! *charming French giggle*"

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm413308416
Oh Javier. You have to be pelvic-thrusting the air in this picture, don't you? Because I just couldn't be any more attracted to you.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm1872926208
Anne Hathaway desperately tries to leach some of Steve Carell's talent by latching on to his arm, but to no avail. As much as I love Jon Stewart, Steve Carell should host the Oscars. Seriously. He is an actor for the all-time comedic pantheon with Charlie Chaplin, Buster Keaton, the Marx brothers, Bill Murray, Steve Martin, and Jack Lemmon (and I'm sure some others that will come to mind as soon as I click "publish post." And when he said "SHUT...it..." just like Michael Scott? Hooray!!!

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm1856148992
OMG Owen Wilson was there. Glad to see him looking better. Wish he would have bought the funny.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm1772262912
I don't wanna hear all your squealing, MacAvoy fangirls. Josh is so much hotter than him in this picture it's not even funny.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm1755485696
Perfection? Yeah I think so.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm1990366720
Jonah Hill once again reminded me that he is the bargain-bin Seth Rogen that you only get when Seth Rogen has the better parts in better movies because he is a way better actor with a way less abrasive screen presence.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm1889703424
"You know who should have two of these at home? ME. Come here, Swinton, and I'll show you where you can put this..."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm2695075328
LORD KNOWS I love me some Amy Adams. But this was hella awkward. The songs from Enchanted are all pretty bad save "That's How You Know," but they work in the movie thanks to Adams. She pretty much sold "Happy Working Song" but it was still just incredibly awkward. The others had production numbers. Even Once got the fancy-schmancy lighting. She...stood on a stage. Poor, poor Amy.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm1386386944
I've heard a lot of criticism of the Coen brothers being "rude" at the Oscars, most of it coming from the There Will Be Blood absolute crazies who will not listen to how anything was even close to TWBB this year. Um...except the Coens weren't. They are terribly shy and not particularly loquacious, and I think that came off, but they never came off as not grateful for their awards.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm3533870592
"Yeah, you won that little Oscar, but you also get the ultimate prize: You get to live like me for a day."

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm3584202240
I love how the photographer has to get this random picture of Clooney amongst the chaos. And I don't blame 'im. Ahhhh love.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm2124584448
"Cinenenenenaimatog - IT'S, LIKE, REALLY HARD TO PRONOUNCE, YOU GUYS!!!"

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm2946733568
"That's how you KNNOOOOOoooooOOOOOOooooooOOWWWWW!!!!" God, she sucked, and I love her. They should have just let Amy do it...she captured the magic like nobody else can.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm2829293056
This was also stupid and they should have just gotten Amy. "So Close" is really a terrible cheesy song, but I'm not gonna lie and pretend I don't have it on my IPod. =/

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2008/gallery/oscar08_show-rm3651311104
Oh, God, how beautiful was this? And then how amazing were they when they won? There were no hysterical tears, but you could just tell they were so moved and absolutely grateful. And then when Jon bought Marketa back...just amazing. Oh my God, I so wish I loved Once. I am a heartless little harlot for not liking it :( It is pretty amazing, though. I mean, a Best Original Song nominee is about as far as Once was ever going to go, and it was a pretty high expectation for something so small - but it got it. It's great to see people being like "I've never heard of this Once movie, but I wanna see it now!" I wish the Oscars were like that for more films, and at their best, they are.

To finish, I gotta say: LOVE the "Marion Cotillard peed on stage!!!" rumors. And her crying inanely when La vie en rose won Best Makeup. And THE RODERICK JAYNES "photo" HAHA I DIED!!! Needless to say, "Big. Red. Pillow." has been on loop in my head for the last 48ish hours. LOVE LAURA. Finally, to quote the winner of Best Cinematography and Best Leading Actor, "I'm finished!"

Briony finally gets her wish...

I swear, Oscar coverage coming soon...........

Everyone keeps saying such bitchy things about this photo...

But I think it's incredibly sweet.

Un mensaje.

Hola, Javier. Quiero ser tu Oscar aquí. Quiero hacer cosas contigo que se enfadaría a mi novio. Actualmente, él querría hacerlas también. A la misma vez. Ahhh... qué suerte tengo ;)

Okay, fine, Oscar "coverage" coming tomorrow. Hopefully.

NOTHING on the Oscars was half as funny as this.

When Josh Groban pops up? OH. MY. GOD. I. DIE.

BEST PART OF LAST NIGHT.

Cate's reaction to her Elizabeth: The Golden Age clip. I think I love her now. Damn you, Cate Blanchett Aura!

Zzzz.

...that was, like, the most boring Oscars ever, right? Not to say it was bad. Just to say it was boring. I mean, I could be "mad" at Marion Cotillard, but a. isn't that a little retarded and b. it's really hard to be "mad" at someone so lovely.

More thoughts tomorrow!

One last little treat before tonight!

About 5 people nationwide probably got this, SNL...but I was one of 'em :)

The Pulpys 2007 - Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor :: Musical / Comedy
and the nominees are


James Marsden as Prince Edward in Enchanted


Paul Rudd as Pete in Knocked Up


Ed Sanders as Toby in Sweeney Todd
(Grrr. This is the only picture of him I can find. I think Helena and Johnny were the only people in that movie *eye roll*)


Philip Seymour Hoffman as Gust Avrakrotos in Charlie Wilson's War


JK Simmons as Mac MacGuff in Juno


Christopher Walken as Wilbur Turnblad in Hairspray

and the winner is
Philip Seymour Hoffman



Supporting Actor :: Drama
and the nominees are


Javier Bardem as Anton Chigurh in No Country for Old Men


Paul Dano as Paul Sunday and Eli Sunday in There Will Be Blood


Hal Holbrook as Ron Franz in Into the Wild
(Emile's shorts still make me uncomfortable)


Tommy Lee Jones as Ed Bell in No Country for Old Men


Tom Wilkinson as Arthur Edens in Michael Clayton


Steve Zahn as Duane Martin in Rescue Dawn

and the winner is
Tommy Lee Jones
because apparently it's a good year for people with three names ;)

For Oscar rules:
Javier Bardem
* Tommy Lee Jones *
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Tom Wilkinson
Steve Zahn

So yeah, the Academy did a really good job here. The only three performances I missed out on here that I'd like to "apologize" to are Robert Downey Jr. in Zodiac, Morgan Freeman in Gone Baby Gone, and Robert De Niro in Stardust, who may have been awful but kept me cracking the shit up because...Robert De Niro. Gay pirate. Named Shakespeare. OH MY GOD.

The Pulpys 2007 - Best Supporting Actresses.

yay. 6 nominees in every category except Supporting Actress - M/C because I couldn't think of another worthy performance

Best Supporting Actress :: Musical / Comedy

and the nominees are

Jenna Fischer as Darlene Madison in Walk Hard


Jennifer Garner as Vanessa Loring in Juno


Jennifer Jason Leigh as Pauline in Margot at the Wedding


Leslie Mann as Debbie in Knocked Up


Samantha Morton as Deborah Curtis in Control

and the winner is
Samantha Morton

Best Supporting Actress :: Drama
and the nominees are


Deborra-Lee Furness as Jude in Jindabyne


Romola Garai as Briony in Atonement


Sarah Michelle Gellar as Krysta Now in Southland Tales (HA! I'm CRAZY!)


Samantha Morton as Mary, Queen of Scots in Elizabeth: The Golden Age


Imelda Staunton as Dolores Umbridge in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix


Tilda Swinton as Karen Crowder in Michael Clayton

and the winner is
Romola Garai

If I had to combine them into 5:
Deborra-Lee Furness
* Romola Garai *
Sarah Michelle Gellar
Samantha Morton
Tilda Swinton

With apologies to Nicole Kidman in The Golden Compass, Marisa Tomei in Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Kelly MacDonald in No Country for Old Men, and Charlotte Gainsbourg in I'm Not There, who I would have loved to include on a lineup somewhere.

Quick ISA update

http://snarkerella.blogspot.com/2008/01/because-i-cant-think-of-anything-better.html

Hooray, everything right except Male Lead and First Feature. These things are way easier to predict than the Oscars.

Tomorrow we'll discover what our God in heaven has in store...

...I should be more dramatic.

Best Picture
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Alternate: Juno

Best Director
Will win: Coen brothers - No Country for Old Men
Alternate: PT Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Alternate: Don't think I really need one, but Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd

Best Actress
Will win: Marion Cotillard - La vie en rose
Alternate: Julie Christie - Away from Her (I'm being pessimistic, shhh)

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Alternate: Again, don't think I really need one, but Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Alternate: I - guh - uh... Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Juno
Alternate: Michael Clayton

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Alternate: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Cinematography
Will win: guh...um... *cries* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alternate: Atonement

Best Editing
Will win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Alternate: No Country for Old Men

Best Art Direction
Will win: um. Atonement?
Alternate: um. Sweeney Todd?

Best Costume Design
Will win: Atonement
Alternate: Elizabeth, The Golden Age

Best Makeup
Will win: NORBIT haha I am crazy
Alternate: La vie en rose

Best Original Score
Will win: Atonement
Alternate: uh Ratatouille?

Best Original Song
Will win: "Falling Slowly," Once
Alternate: "That's How You Know," Enchanted

Best Sound
Will win: Transformers (GO KEVIN O'CONNELL!!!!)
Alternate: No Country for Old Men

Best Sound Editing
Will win: ... Transformers ?
Alternate: No Country for Old Men

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Transformers
Alternate: Pirates of the Carribbean - At World's End

Best Animated Film
Will win: Ratatouille
Alternate: Persepolis

Best Foreign Film
Will win: 12?????
Alternate: Katyn????

Best Documentary Film
Will win: No End in Sight
Alternate: Sicko

Man, I'm gonna be so wrong on these. One thing I do think will make me exquisitely happy, however, looking over these, is if Kevin O'Connell wins his first Oscar tomorrow night. I'm rooting for ya Kev!

Daniel Day-Lewis to Johnny Depp at the Oscars.

"Did you think your song and dance would help you get you an Oscar?!"

Goddamn, it would be freaking awesome if DDL started chucking bowling balls at Johnny Depp.

Analyzing: Best Picture.

Before I start, let me just say that Oscar's Best Picture lineup this year is the best in an extremely long time. Every year that I can think of has a film that I would have gone "NOOOOOO!!!!" if it won Best Picture. This year? Not at all. I've rated all these films A- or better. So, sorry to say, this is probably just going to be a lot of gushing (sometimes literally, in the case of There Will Be Blood. HA. So funny, I am.). The claws ain't comin' out on this one.

5. Juno.

People are such bullshit. Everyone always complains about how comedy movies and comedic roles don't get nominated for Oscars, and then when they do - Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, Marisa Tomei, Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets - they get hopelessly bashed as "lightweight" or (as Sunshine and Juno have faced) "pretentious." You can't have it both ways, so just shut up. Anyway, Juno has been dismissed by many as pretentious and hopelessly hipster. And whenever I hear people bash it as the latter (ALWAYS citing the "homeskillet," "etch-a-sketch," or "honest to blog" line), I have to wonder - did these people see the movie beyond the first twenty minutes? Cuz I wanted to shoot myself the first twenty minutes, too. But then, lo and behold, the pretense fell away, and we came to realize - Juno talks like this as a shield. As the movie goes on, it only gets better and better. Is it overwritten? Probably. But that doesn't stop real character arcs from happening. The ending is beyond perfect. Diablo Cody could have fucked it up in any number of ways, but it just strikes a perfect chord. Lovely. This is the weakest of the five nominees, if only because of the near-unbearable first twenty minutes (and those are - I am so sorry, Dwight - kind of Rainn Wilson's fault), but it picks up so much after that that the first twenty minutes are absolutely forgiveable. A win for it would still be lovely.
My grade: A-
Why it might win: The happiest, by far, of the Best Picture nominees. The biggest money-maker, by far, of the Best Picture nominees. The fact that it got the Best Director nomination proves it has a lot more support than we thought. Roger Ebert!
Why it might not: It has its very loud detractors. It skews very young and the Academy...does not. It lost the Globe to a movie that wasn't even nominated for Best Picture. It's got the least nominations of all the Best Picture-nominated films. Not No Country for Old Men.

4. Michael Clayton.

Michael Clayton also gets bashed a lot. I don't get its bashing either, other than the fact that everyone who seems to do it is like, 16, which I can understand. It is a tad underdirected, but that's understandable as it's Tony Gilroy's first film, which is actually amazing when you consider its quality. Michael Clayton is a total throwback to the films of the 1970s, where films were bold and actually critiqued society and those that were powerful within it. This film does that with both huge corporations and the law profession. I love Law and Order, but Michael Clayton is like an incredibly deep episode of that show that actually says something about society. It's not nearly as prophetic or darkly funny as Network but it functions in much the same way, even with Wilkinson's character being a ton like Peter Finch. Also, the three lead performances are just great.
My grade: A-
Why it might win: Vote-splitting? George Clooney. Everyone loves a legal drama! Some viewers may love the throwback to the '70s.
Why it might not: It's the least showy/flashy of these nominees by far, and it doesn't have the passionate supporters the other four have. It's probably the most likely to be forgotten or ignored. It isn't the frontrunner in any of its nominated categories. Not No Country for Old Men.

3. Atonement.

Atonement is a movie people are either scary batshit crazy over (some guy on IMDb was saying something along the lines of that there is no excuse for people not having it in their top 5, but in a much scarier way than that that I basically blocked out of my head for my own sanity) or spend all their time, like, insulting. I see where the insulters and detractors come from, and before I saw it I thought I might be one of them, what with the sniffly Keira Knightley and the overrated James MacAvoy starring in this film - but then I saw it, and it was in fact, really really good and, at least for me, incredibly touching, so yeah. I gotta hand it to Atonement. The ending is either going to hit you like a sack of bricks and make you realize how damn sad the past two hours were, or is going to make you go "wait, I sat through that for this?" There's no getting around it, and I see both sides (though I clearly side with the former). Why does it feel like I'm just backhandedly insulting Atonement the entire time I've been writing this? It's a truly great movie. Also, Atonement deserves bonus points for just getting the damn thing on screen. It's an incredible book but I never once thought "This would make a great movie." But, it did. Kudos, Joe Wright & Co.
My grade: A-
Why it might win: Prestige picture. The frontrunner forever or at least until the guilds attacked. Literary prestige. Even amazingly horrific scenes somehow look like gorgeous postcards and the Academy loves that shit. It won the Globe against No Country.
Why it might not: Tell me the last film that won without Editing and Director nominations. Totally ignored by the guilds. Couldn't get its flashiest stars to a nomination. Lately, the Globe Drama winners don't win Best Picture (since 2002, only one of them has, and that's because what else was going to win in 2003 besides Lord of the Rings?). Not No Country for Old Men.

2. No Country for Old Men

No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood just reduce my brain to mush. I just... al068u4okjafls. Okay, to talk about No Country, I'll have to use another great great movie, The Departed. The Departed is amazing (and quite frankly, I like it more than No Country, but it's probably not the better movie). Do you all remember that scene where Matt Damon's character first gets the phone number to Leonardo DiCaprio's character's phone and calls him and they just sit there...in silence...? No Country for Old Men is like that the entire movie. Add to that gorgeous cinematography, incredible acting, and a feeling that this entire little story has repercussions for the whole world, somehow, and it's just...gahhhh.
My grade: A
Why it might win: Frontrunner! Hooray, it's got Editing & Director nods (and many other nominations). Coen brothers. Best-reviewed film of the year. Won most precursors. Actually made a pretty darn good amount of money for an Oscar film.
Why it might not: Atonement beat it at the Globes. Too violent or dark?

1. There Will Be Blood.

aflsjfljlg. Really, I just...I...I wanted to write a review of There Will Be Blood, but I had to hold it off. There Will Be Blood is one of those films you see and just "...". And then, you have to forget it, so you can do normal things like eat and sleep. It's just...brain. fried. I'm not gonna lie: even when the trailer first came out, I wasn't so sure how good this was gonna be. I'm afraid I was still terribly wary from Punch-Drunk Love. But this...this...gahhhhhh. How is it that PT Anderson and company manage to borrow and work on so many movies of the past, and yet advance cinema so far at once? I know, my write-ups for No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood just come off as stupid and overly general. That's because they're the best kind of movies - the kind that do not leave your head once they get there, the ones you can't describe as "oh, that was good" and that's that. Just...I...I'm finished. ;)
My grade: A
Why it might win: If it makes me feel this way, I imagine it makes others feel this way too. Editing & Director nods and many other nominations. Daniel Day-Lewis. It's period material, but the issues are contemporary. I would say that its supporters are the most passionate. Won the few precursors No Country didn't (besides the Globe).
Why it might not: If the Oscar voters think No Country is bleak, I'd love to hear what they thought about this one. It's got its detractors that say it's too over-the-top. Not No Country for Old Men.

Will win: No Country for Old Men.
Might win: There Will Be Blood has very passionate supporters and is being thrown about as a possible spoiler, but I dunno. I don't really see it happening (though I'd be thrilled if it did).
Dark horse: Juno's light touch, place in pop culture, and $$$ might lead it to victory.
Snubbed: If we're talking about the three other films that were also thrown around for Best Picture, those would be Into the Wild, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and Sweeney Todd. I haven't seen Diving Bell (it's finally playing at the teeny indie theater near me, so I really really hope either tonight or some time next week I have time to see it), and I prefer all of these to Into the Wild and Sweeney Todd by far.

Blaaaargh. Final predictions coming later. And I guess my personal awards will have to wait until either tomorrow before the show (if I have time, which I probably won't) or Monday...

STEVE!!!!!!

You co-wrote The 40-Year Old Virgin (seriously, how did I not know that before?)? Oh, I don't think we can be friends any more...

What's that?

You wrote "Casino Night" too...?

All is forgiven. And more.

Analyzing: Best Actor

Last acting category, yay.

5. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd.

I haven't really been too nice to Mr. Depp in the past, but being in Spain for like four months made me kind of get over it because I was separated from IMDb and all the scary Johnny Depp fans. That said, this is by far the least of the Actor nominees. Johnny isn't bad at all, but he's been given one of the greatest characters in history and he just could have done so much more with it. He strikes a mean, terribly intimidating figure, and has a few moments where he's great, but half the time he's just glowering. Helena Bonham Carter completely steals the movie away from him, and she's not even that great. Hey, it's better than his last two nominations, though...
Why he might win: Everyone loves Johnny Depp and wants to see him get an Oscar sooner or later (everyone except me =/). Globe winner.
Why he might not: Not Daniel Day-Lewis. No precursors. Oscar clearly didn't like his film very much.

4. George Clooney, Michael Clayton.

George gets a lot of badmouthing for "always playing George Clooney," and I don't think that's accurate. What I do think is accurate is that he has this amazing screen presence that feels the same in every movie. At any rate, Clooney's performance in Michael Clayton isn't just "Clooney being Clooney," though he undoubtedly taps into his movie star mojo and incredible charisma for effect at times. The man is magnetic, but he's also unbelievably layered; look at his eyes when he sees the horses. And it might be obvious, but that taxi ride at the end - damn. He also just perfectly captures a man who is absolutely tired of the shit the law profession puts him through. Oh, how I love the Cloons.
Why he might win: He's George Clooney and they love him. The couple of awards Daniel Day-Lewis didn't get, he did. Title character in a Best Picture nominee.
Why he might not: Not Daniel Day-Lewis. He just won.

3. Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises.

Well, let's get one thing out of the way first: Viggo Mortensen is almost unbearably sexy in this movie, quite frankly. And no, it ain't cuz of the nude scene. Viggo's character choices in Eastern Promises are so specific and he absolutely transforms what could have been a stock "gangster" role (but is anything "stock" in a Cronenberg movie?) into a true character. And yet - here is another great thing about his performance - Mortensen doesn't hide the mystery of this character. Up until that steam bath scene, Mortensen seems to do nothing but wait. He's clearly dangerous and involved in the Russian Mafia... but what attracts us, and Anna? It's some humanity bubbling under the surface, beneath those sunglasses in those reptilian eyes. I don't even know how Viggo gets that all across, but he does. I've read that the steam bath scene in Eastern Promises has no point, and it's just spectacular filmmaking without any real point in the story, but this isn't true; it's needed to release all the near-unbearable tension the movie's been moving toward, which Viggo's tightly coiled performance absolutely contributes to, and well, he rips loose in that scene (naked! killing people!). At the end of the movie, Viggo's secret gets revealed, and yet he still feels like some kind of unknowable mystery. Somehow, this isn't a "OMG what was up with that character Viggo had no idea what he was doing" mystery. No idea how he pulled that off either, but yeah. It's Viggo. He's amazing. I love how I changed in that description from "Mortensen" to "Viggo" very suddenly and abruptly...
Why he might win: Raving fans.
Why he might not: Not Daniel Day-Lewis. No precursors. The movie had no other Academy support besides him.

2. Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah.

As I've said before, Oscar loves big. It loves loud. It loves showy. And that, my friends, is why this performance has absolutely no chance of winning. THINK of all the screaming and huffing and puffing Tommy Lee Jones could have done to show his hurt! But...here's the thing. He never does. Jones* manages to get across oceans of tragedy without even shedding a tear. Hank Deerfield has so many layers (partially thanks to Paul Haggis. SUCK IT, HATERS.), and somehow - again, these top three really just leave me in awe at how they do it, but they do it - Jones manages to accomplish getting across these many layers in, often, just a glance. I was never really impressed by Tommy Lee Jones before. I'd seen a lot of his movies, but I always kind of thought of him as a. the non-Will Smith character in Men in Black or b. the robber of Ralph Fiennes' Oscar. Thanks to 2007, though, with this and No Country for Old Men, I have a completely new respect for him. He can be absolutely amazing indeed, like he is here.
Why he might win: Respected veteran. PAUL HAGGIS MANIA. He was considered the frontrunner...in like, September.
Why he might not: Not Daniel Day-Lewis. Film was teeeeeny. The surprise nominee almost never wins. The movie has no other Academy support.

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood.

What can I say? What can I possibly, possibly say about this performance that hasn't been said already a million times by people more eloquent than I am? So, one more time for the seats in the back - "DRAAAAAAIIIIIINAAAAAGEEEE!!! ... Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There is is, that's a straw, you see? You watching? And my straw reaches acroooossss the room and starts to drink your milkshake. I...drink...your...milkshake. SLUUUUURRRRPPPP!!! I DRINK IT UP!!!!!"
Why he might win: HE. DRINKS. YOUR. MILKSHAKE. Oh, and he's the frontrunner and has won virtually every critics' award in existence. And he's been ludicrously raved (and for good reason). And he's Daniel Day-Lewis. And a Best Picture nominee is all about him.
Why he might not: Honestly, I can't think of any reason.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis.
Might win: If Sweeney Todd was a little bigger and Depp hadn't missed the SAGs and stuff, I'd be a little more worried about Depp's chance at upsetting but...no.
Dark horse: Never underestimate the power of the Clooney Star Mojo. But...yeah it's probably not going to lead to a win here.
Snubbed: The top four here is pretty tremendous, but as far as the three youngins that got snubbed (MacAvoy, Hirsch, and Gosling), I would definitely have preferred MacAvoy and Hirsch over Depp (sorry, Ryan, I thought you were mostly rubbish, as was Lars and the Real Girl. Oh well, you've got your Pulpy from last year to make you feel better, plus if you need some personal comfort you can always call me ;) ) Also, how did Julie Christie get all the attention in Away from Her? Gordon Pinsent more than held his own marvelously. It also confuses me how Josh Brolin was snubbed absolutely everywhere for No Country for Old Men, as the other three main members of the cast got nominated at least somewhere (Bardem, Jones, and MacDonald). He was excellent, too.

*Lee Jones? I never know

OH MY GOD, CREED THOUGHTS.

Has anyone ever actually read them? OH MY GOD. SO FUNNY.

"Today in my office where I work as Director of Quality Assurance, we went to the beach for some reason that was never adequately explained. When we were there, our manager told us to eat hot coals. I thought that was a little bit untoward so I ate a fish. Then a woman I have literally never seen before in my entire life started talking very loudly about something involving Halpert. She was agitated, I'd say. From what I could guess, she was definitely on drugs of some kind, perhaps cocaine, or maybe 'drines. Also, she is a knock-out. She reminds me of a young Daphne Du Maurier. Also, I stupidly ate the fishbones. I told myself "never again" after the last time, but then you turn around, and bam, they're in my mouth. I also ate 55 hot dogs in 15 minutes, which is a world record."

Analyzing: You guessed it...Best Actress.

Whole lot louder and a whole lot worse (that wasn't intended to describe #5 and #4 on this list, but as it so happens...).

5. Marion Cotillard, La vie en rose.

When I first saw La vie en rose, I thought the movie was terrible but Marion was okay; she had some good scene work but it wasn't cohesive. Then, I took a re-view and - yikes, what was I thinking there? What is the Academy thinking? What are all her fans thinking? This performance is tremendously loud and showy but it brings us - or at least me - absolutely nowhere emotionally. To be fair, it's partially the film's fault, absolutely destroying any chance she had of creating a cohesive character, but she still wasn't any good. Yeah, I guess she "transformed," through about eighty pounds of makeup (to be fair, that nomination was completely deserved). She never, ever bought me into the emotional life of this character. "Bonus" bad points for having the most annoying fans of the year.
Why she might win: Won the Globe and BAFTA. Her fans are very...enthusiastic. She's the one that probably got her film those extra Oscar nominations. Yes, as everyone points out, she's gorgeous and extremely charming in real life. Oscar loves a big showy biopic performance.
Why she might not: Still not the frontrunner, no matter what the Cotillard fans keep friggin' saying. Go away already. In a foreign film. In most direct Christie vs. Cotillard fights, Christie wins (NBR, SAG, BFCA, critics awards - she only got the BAFTA away from Christie, and they do love foreign performances and clearly loved La vie en rose).

4. Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

In my humble opinion, this nomination is purely symbolic. It means that Cate Blanchett is the new Meryl Streep - not in terms of acting ability, but as far as the Academy goes, she will get nominated for anything she does in the future, no matter what the quality. Yikes. Again, what was the Academy thinking? I don't think Blanchett here is as bad as Marion is, though. She's clearly having fun with her totally ridiculous role. I mean, when you're given lines to deliver like "all my bitches wear my collars" (that aren't meant to be ironic) and you sort of pull it off, that takes skill. That said, in the first Elizabeth movie C.Blah totally had nuance and fire. I get where the obsession with her in that movie comes from, even if she's not my personal win. But here? It was totally empty. She screams a lot, and wears fantastic giant outfits, but can't command the screen, nevertheless the wind, and nevertheless - thank God - a win.
Why she might win: She's Cate Blanchett. According to the crazies on her IMDb message board, the Academy "will feel that they owed her for the first Elizabeth movie and reward her for this one." Apparently they also want to "reward Cate Blanchett in lead." The movie basically exists to get her an Oscar nomination.
Why she might not: No precursors. Pretty much universally acknowledged as the worst nominee with the least chances of winning. If they really wanna vote for Cate, they'll vote for her in I'm Not There, which is absolutely without a doubt the better performance.

3. Ellen Page, Juno.

Tremendous jump in quality. I really didn't like Page at all in Hard Candy, in a horrendous role that was both overwritten and underwritten but that she really added nothing to. So when I heard raves about her in Juno, and saw the preview, I wasn't terribly excited. It looked like another Garden State, which I hated for its need to be incredibly hip and its lack of profundity. But then I saw Juno and, miracle of miracles: it was great. And so was Ellen Page. Maybe the reason the film's screenplay works as well as it does is because of her performance. Given bizarre dialogue, she completely pulls it off and sounds totally natural. She doesn't ever mug for attention, like other actors and actresses in comedy often do; she just says the lines pitch-perfectly. And yes, she is hilarious, but at the same time, she somehow manages to get across the idea that, at times, Juno just uses her snarkiness and slang as a defense mechanism. But the best parts of her performance, for me, are her less comedic moments, and more dramatic ones, like when she is in the bed with Paulie toward the end of the film, right after she's had her child. In these scenes, we see Juno's depth - was this what she was using her sarcasm to defend against? Though she's a smart-aleck and kind of an ass, we really feel for her.
Why she might win: Her movie made the most money - by farrrrr (the other movies are fucking small) - of all the nominees in this category. Newcomer who everyone seems to like. Playing the title character in a Best Picture nominee never hurts. Juno had more support than we thought (Director?). Roger Ebert's on her side!
Why she might not: Not the frontrunner. Failed to win the Globe. Juno backlash?

2. Julie Christie, Away from Her.

I am of two minds about Away from Her. First, I'm in awe that someone as young as Sarah Polley could pull off such an incredibly mature, deftly measured film. On the other hand, I'm a wee bit like "Sarah? Are you alive in there? You're not even thirty. Your films are already a wee bit stagnant. Show some passion dammit!" One thing I've never been of two minds about in Away from Her, though, is the magnificent Julie Christie. True, I, like many, may have been drawn in by her mere gloriousness, but I do think it's an absolutely wonderful performance. The mixture of strength, resignation, and utter terror against what she faces is simply fascinating and well-layered. And I don't see how people call her performance "boring" or "staid;" again, maybe it's just because of her magical fairy dust, but Julie Christie just sparkles on screen. She's got it, baby. She's had it for over forty years, and she ain't losing it now. That said - her performance had (way) more to it than that "I'd like you to make love to me, and then I'd like you to leave..." scene. It's the "*plate smash* EVERYTHING!" of 2007. Please show us something different!
Why she might win: Frontrunner. She's Julie Christie, legend and icon. Baity role. You know she got her film that Screenplay nomination.
Why she might not: Marion Cotillard's hype. I really don't think she gives a shit about the Oscars, at all.

1. Laura Linney, The Savages.

Laura Linney doesn't act. She simply is. That's the only excuse I can think of when it comes to her lack of Oscar love. She's just too natural. Oscar loves 'em showy or baity. They need a hook. They don't usually like normal if flawed characters - real characters, like the ones Linney excels at portraying. It's no different in The Savages. She doesn't just know this character, she is this character. I know this sounds stupid and generic, but it's true. The Savages wouldn't work without the psychological insight she (and to be fair, Hoffman and Bosco) provides to her character. And though Wendy Savage is prickly, neurotic, and has self-esteem issues, Linney stops her from being a downer with her wit and perfect comedic timing. Ahhhh, I love her. She is a national treasure.
Why she might win: Um...she's been popping up on those ballots they keep showing us with surprising frequency. She's the only American in this group. She's Laura Linney, dammit!!!
Why she might not: Not the frontrunner, and failed to get any precursors at all (I figured her chances were dead when she missed the Indie Spirit nom). Her nomination was an absolute shock - when the heck is the last time the shock nominee won the Oscar?

Will win: Normally, I'd say Christie. But all those "OMG LOOK AT THE SECRET OSCAR BALLOTS!!!!" things keep coming out, and Cotillard gets mentioned depressingly often (though everyone keeps saying "I don't think she'll win, but I voted for her anyway"). I'm gonna go with Cotillard and hope I'm wrong.
Might win: Christie, though, is probably still the frontrunner for a reason.
Dark horse: I think the money thing (and the Best Picture nomination thing) might come into play for Ellen Page. These other films are teeeeeeeny.
The snubbed: AMY FUCKING ADAMS. If we're going with badly-reviewed movies in Best Actress, Jodie Foster in The Brave One trumps Cate Blanchett times a billion. I didn't love Angelina Jolie but I would have been way happier to see her get nominated than Cate Blanchett. And of course, there are the performances that are so good but that horrify me in their lack of any precursor mentions...

Let's talk, Jessica Alba.

How are you today? That's good to hear. I'm well too. I think you are very pretty and somehow, despite all the shit we have been through together (the Fantastic Four films and Honey, as well as Sin City but you were actually not horrible in that except for that line reading about "stop the car" or whatever which always REALLY BOTHERED ME. I'm sure we would have had many other lovely um experiences, but I just couldn't bring myself to sit through the likes of Good Luck Chuck.), I find you charming. I also think your baby is going to be really attractive. So now that I've complimented you a whole lot, can we talk about...this?:

This is supposed to be you playing a scene from Rosemary's Baby, but all I can say is JESUS H. CHRIST THAT IS AN AWFUL PHOTO! I mean, really. Somehow you manage to be completely hammy and showy, and completely dead and emotionless. I don't get it. There are other horror movies you chose to do scenes from, such as the shower scene in Psycho. You are aware Marion Cotillard juuuust recreated that scene less than a month ago, and she rocked the shit out of it? You, on the other hand, are just...bad. Bad! Bad and wrong!

Sorry about that. I still think you're pretty! If nothing else you can at least rock the pixie haircut.

You know what article is kind of stupid?

This one.

I'm not just saying that because I prefer the "will win" performances to the "might win" performances. It's just...written really stupidly. Michael Clayton is nominated for Best Picture, OMG George Clooney will win!!!! Well...so is There Will Be Blood ._.

Analyzing: Best Supporting Actor.

Second verse, same as the first.

5. Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild.

I'm with many that Into the Wild is one of the most overrated films of 2007. It just...really doesn't do it for me. That said, Hal Holbrook is perhaps the best thing about it. In very little screen time, he completely transforms the movie, and perhaps even your thoughts on Chris. His portrayal is honest and layered. You'll notice I haven't said anything even remotely bad about Hal. That's because Best Supporting Actor this year is pretty fucking amazing. Good on that, Academy. On a completely unrelated note - yikes, how short are those shorts on Emile in this picture?
Why he might win: The Academy sure as heck loves their old veterans - shades of Alan Arkin?
Why he might not: Not at all the frontrunner. The Academy clearly didn't like his film as much as we all thought they would. Not Javier Bardem.

4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War.

I think a lot of people get bitchy about Charlie Wilson's War because it has Julia Roberts, Tom Hanks, and PSH, a combination of which makes a lot of people break out in hives. Truth is, it's really clever and actually says something for the most part (its flaw is that script got some of the bite taken out of it by the real-life Joanne Herring, who sued, so it's perhaps not as smart as it could be) - but the banter between the male leads alone makes it worth watching. Hanks is just great, but it's the Hoff that runs away with this show. Simply put, it's his movie, and the absolute glee as he gobbles up scenery while somehow, improbably, creating a character is palpable. Hammy? Maybe. But I ate that ham right up.
Why he might win: His film made the most money in this category. I think the Oscars just woke up to the fact that PSH is, you know, an awesome actor, and will now want to reward him forever. Just like they did with C.Blah around 2004, but PSH is way better than boring ol' C.Blah...
Why he might not: This is his film's only nomination. He's the only previous winner and in a category with the potentially snubbed in the past, that hurts him badly. Not Javier Bardem.

3. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton.

Tom Wilkinson is easily one of the best actors working today. Wilkinson + baguettes + crazy = YES! That voice brings gravitas. Is he insane, or is he the only one in this movie that's actually woken up? This isn't a particularly original thought, but he is so much like Peter Finch in Network. And that, my friends, is a very good thing to be.
Why he might win: In a Best Picture nominee. The Academy loves 'em old and British.
Why he might not: No other precursors. Not Javier Bardem.

2. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of That Guy By The Other Guy.

And here we have the year's honorary Egregious Category Fraud nomination (Foxx [in supporting, obviously] 04, Gyllenhaal 05, Blanchett 06) where an absolutely unquestionable lead gets thrown in supporting. That's not to diminish Affleck's achievement, however. The character is completely annoying at first, but he just portrays his need to be liked so badly that we feel for him nevertheless. The way his obsession with Jesse James gets played is simply great as well. Robert Ford is incredibly complex, and Affleck nails every nuance and character trait. He's utterly mesmirizing to watch as well; kid's got charisma. I know I'm a huge fan of Ben Affleck, and I do think he's a good actor, but Casey put him in his place to a ridiculous extent in this movie. Sort of related - Casey's fans are the second most annoying this year (first are Marion's, duh). I have no problems with people liking him, as clearly I do too. But do you always have to put down the front-runner and say "IF YOU SAW CASEY AND THINK JAVIER IS BETTER, YOU ARE A STUPID MORON!!!!!!" No. You don't. It's also very annoying that whenever someone lists Javier as their preferred winner they go "DID YOU SEE JESSE JAMES??????????" Anyway. Rock on, Casey.
Why he might win: He clearly has legions of fans. The critics awards Javier Bardem didn't win, he did.
Why he might not: His film made very little money. Not Javier Bardem.

1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men.

What is Anton Chigurh? Is he a serial killer? A madman? A drug lord? Or is he not something human at all, but merely a symbol of something else - death? evil? Only a master could play such an inspecific role and get it to feel completely like an actual person, and Javier Bardem absolutely does that. What's more, he adds tons of humor into the role, somehow, and even makes you feel a squeeze sorry for him in the last scene. I know Javier Bardem is a dashing, handsome Spanish man, but now all I can see him as is a crazed killer, completely lacking in soul, with, yeah, that crazy haircut. I know I'm not saying much that's specific, but a. I always find it so hard to write about films (I keep doing it though, dammit!) and b. Javier kind of leaves me without words in No Country. He's just...effing amazing.
Why he might win: Super frontrunner!!!! Won almost every critics' award, the Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA. In the probable Best Picture winner.
Why he might not: Ben Affleck stuffs the vote box? My host mom from Spain who hated him (I don't know why. He brings your country fame. And Oscars!) convinces everyone to vote against him? I can only think of one actual reason - the Academy pulls an Alan Arkin and gives it to Hal Holbrook. But Into the Wild doesn't have nearly the support with the Academy that Little Miss Sunshine did... and Holbrook hasn't been thought of as a threat like Arkin was.

Will win: JavBar.
Might win: Anyone except Bardem would be extremely shocking, but Holbrook would leave me less shocked than anyone else after last year.
Dark horse: Affleck's clearly got his legions of fans, but it comes down to the fact that his film was just too small.
The snubbed: Of the ones Oscar might have noticed, primarily Tommy Lee Jones in No Country for Old Men and Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood. Like I said, though, Oscar picked really great nominees here (all of them are in my top 10 Supporting Actors, or rather would be if I considered Casey supporting), and thank God John Travolta didn't get in here.