and i'm back to boring birthday posts.

those flashing lights come from everywhere.

for while i cannot love myself, i'll use something else

Jack Lemmon is so good in this movie. Somehow, he's both very '60s and very contemporary in his acting. I love him so much as an actor, and all things considered, he's probably my very favorite; he's terribly underrated, actually.

how have i never seen this picture before?!?!?!?!

So. Amazing.

ooh, happy birthday.

Of course, it helps that this is one of the best performances of the 2000s (or hell, in general). But...but...but... it would have been worth it even if the performance were terrible to see this, right?

and happy birthday to Vanessa Redgrave. Her scene in Atonement still sticks with me...

and Gene Hackman. He looks like my dad. Like, a lot.

ohhh yeahhh, I was supposed to do SAG reactions

- Good on The Sopranos. It was always an absolutely exemplary television show, and the last season was no different.
- I can't believe I'm going to say this, but that statue should have been Cate Blanchett's. The supporting one, obviously. I don't have a problem with Ruby Dee, though. And it's good to see at least one race be a wild card! (I think I'm still predicting Blanchett, though. The Academy is really wet for her.)
- No one was really dressed all that well. Marion Cotillard is absolutely gorgeous and everyone seems to be going on and on about her dress, but I wasn't that impressed. It was okay but not mind-blowing. I gotta say, Angelina Jolie looked gorgeous in what she was wearing, even though it was...crazy. Also everyone looked pregnant. I saw Cate Blanchett and was like "WHOAH WHAT'S UP WITH THAT????" then I remembered she actually is pregnant. Whoops.
- The Office won??!?!??!? Obviously, I'm thrilled (and yes, JKras was there. Ahhh... he is one tall drink of water). But...did they win for the fourth season? Because haven't they only had like...eight episodes? Not that it matters! Better than any other show on television!
- And that's, uh, that.

isn't this why people hate Crash?...

It's going to be a TV show say what? Look, I think my admiration for Crash has been made clear. I thought it was terrific on first watch and terrific every time I saw it from then on. It also seemed blatantly obvious, at least to me, that it wasn't really about racism; at its core, it was about the fascinating interactions between people, of whatever race, in the beehive of Los Angeles. But I think since winning the Oscar, its makers have been exaggerating its importance. It's a good movie, it's not the be-all-end-all of moral dramas, and I certainly don't see the need for a TV series, especially not two years after the fact when the Brokeback Mountain fans have finally started to freakin' get over it. Sorry, Paul Haggis. I liked it the first time around, but I ain't gonna watch this version of it.

WHAT THE HELL?

Jim and Kevin (my two favorite characters on The Office, by the by) are in License to Wed?

And I just checked IMDb, and Kelly and Angela are too? What the hell. These people all actually have, you know. Comedic talent. Which is fucking hard to have. This is actually making me sort of, in some bizarre way, want to see the movie. And I can't do that.

I didn't watch the SAGs, but...

Viggo: Hey, Javier Bardem.
Javier: Hey, Viggo Mortensen.
Viggo: You're hot.
Javier: I know. So are you.
Viggo: I know. Wanna make out later?
Javier: Totally.



Josh & Jeremy: Sorry, guys. Already beat ya to it.



Jenna: Fancy New Beesley? Is hot!
Justine Credible: OMG WAS JOHN KRASINSKI THERE AND I DIDN'T SEE HIM?!?!??$@?%$%#%L1111~!!!!!


Actual comments on the winners and stuff to come...

Clovie

Getting 2008 off to a pretty darn good start. Many spoilers in this "review."

Plus:
- Here is the plus that takes prescendence over the other pluses, and above all my tiny little minuses; it was an excellently made movie. The opening scenes - at a freakin' party! - were absolutely terrifying because you had no idea what was going to happen, and when whatever happened would happen. All the scenes during the attack were terrifying. The scene in the subways? AIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.
- You really cared about the characters, even though they were morons (see below)
- The monster had a great design (as did its little parasite things) and I'm glad they didn't give you all this "it just wantz 2b lovd!!!!!" background in the movie. It just showed up and nobody had a clue about anything, which made the movie even more terrifying. I love how you don't know exactly what was going on with anything, like the attack, or Marlena's bite (my friends and I discussed that on the ride home for like half an hour). That said, the viral marketing is brilliant if you're willing to do the effort (or read the efforts that other people have put in ;) )
- The script and acting were way, way, way above average for this type of movie (especially considering the actors were mostly unknowns). I seriously doubt any of them will be in my final lineups by the end of 2008, but I'll be proud to call them finalists/semi-finalists/whatever.

Minus:
- OH CHRIST THE CHARACTERS WERE STUPID. Beth was...arrrghhh!! Yes, I understand why love drove Rob back to get her, but... arghhh!!! The second Rob was like "hey, we can go through the subway tunnels!" I was like "NO. YOU ARE A MORON. DO NOT DO THAT." Also, Hud's death was caused by his own being a moron. OMG let me go back for my camera...ahhhh the monster ate me I'm dead. Also, HUD! SAVE YOUR ASS AND STOP FILMING ("people will want to know how it all went down" was the only stupid line in the whole movie)!
- Okay. I'd heard to bring Dramamine, seriously. And the shakycam didn't bother me so much. You know what did make me feel queasy to the point of uncomfortable? The constant 9/11 imagery. I'm from very close to the city. I remember the day vividly. Yes, I know, it's a movie about New York being attacked. There will be some things that remind the viewer of 9/11 even if the filmmakers were trying their hardest to not have those images in the movie. But...there were scenes that were right off the news from that day. Tough to watch, and hard to believe it was unintentional.
- NOOOOO, JANIS IAN!!!!! (Her "HUD!!" right before they dragged her behind that curtain, though? Terrifying. She was awesome.)
- A few instances of product placement were really very funny. For example, when Rob called his mom and had to tell him his brother had died, and then sat on the bench in the subway and Lily had to comfort him, the zooming camera focused on the Nokia ad, and not Rob and Lily.
- While the monster was always cool-looking, the design and height of it seemed to change... like, we saw its face when they were on the helicopter/about to get on the helicopter? and it looked just like a Rancor from Star Wars (dork reference). Then, when we saw its face when Hud got eaten, it...didn't look like that. I don't think "there were two monsters omg!!!" like some were saying, but it was inconsistent.
- Also, the monster being indestructable was a little ridiculous, but I understand why they had to do it for the sake of the movie.
- Also also, did the monster have like, a cloaking feature or something? Because, like, when they were trying to evacuate people via the Brooklyn Bridge, the government didn't notice it was nearby? When Hud went back to get his camera, he didn't notice it was, uh, STANDING RIGHT OVER IT????
- There were some stupid people in my theater that were really loud.

Overall, though? Great experience, and a very good movie, especially considering it comes out in January, the Month Of Crap That Isn't Going To Make Any Money. The 9/11 references mean I can't ever love it, though, unfortunately... B (maybe, maybe, maybe a B+?)

BREAKING NEWS (okay, not really)

The Coens were the ones to actually win the DGA, not Sean Penn or them and PT Anderson (which would have been so sexy). Good on ya, guys.

In other news, Martin Scorsese is still the cutest little man alive.

You Can Count on Her.

I love Laura Linney. Nay...I worship Laura Linney. She's my favorite actress, certainly currently working and perhaps ever. No one is more consistently brilliant. Take, for instance, Kinsey. While most actresses would have only bothered to show up and not truly try to put any effort into the movie, knowing they had the inherently Oscarable role of the "long-suffering yet loyal spouse in a biopic." Instead, Linney puts fire and life (I know it was basically made to be teh Oscar clip, but that "stop using science to justify what you've done" scene is great), as well as her usual sublety, into the role. She never takes that part for granted and her Oscar nomination was completely deserved (as were her other two, but in an ideal world, she'd have at least seven. Yes, I said seven!). Most people, thank God, agree with me on La Linney, but if she ever gets backlash, it's that she "coasts." That's a ludicrous charge. What happens is, Linney almost never wants you to see her acting, unlike, say, Cate Blanchett or Marion Cotillard in La vie en rose, just to name two punching bags of this blog who were the first to come to mind (sorry guys). Instead, she does what should be the goal of every actor/actress: she becomes her characters. Think about what she's best known for - usually, it's playing a complicated woman in a complicated family. That's an outline, yes, but all these families are different. Linney always captures the precise dynamics in every family she portrays, and she always makes it look effortless and incredibly charming. I can see how some say she "coasts" but she just doesn't do it, dammit!

Laura Linney is the patron saint of this blog, and if you don't like it, GTFO.

so, ummmmmmmmmmmm...

So first I heard Sean Penn won the DGA. Then I heard PT Anderson and the Coens tied (note: this would be the hottest result ever). Then I heard just the Coens won. WHO WON??!!?!? SO CONFUSED!!!

you're so ambitious for a juvenile. but then if you're so smart, tell me, why are you still so afraid?

It's not that Scarlett Johansson isn't a good actress, or that she doesn't give one of the best performances I've ever seen in Lost in Translation, but to think about what she would have been like in the silent era boggles the mind. The girl was born for it.

SAG predictions

I'm really bad at this, so who knows.

Best Performance by an Ensemble Cast
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Spoiler: Hairspray
Should win: Hairspray (keep in mind, this isn't "Best Picture," though SAG often votes as if it is. Hairspray isn't the "Best Picture" here, but it is the best ensemble. Even though there were some people in the cast who were better than others [to say the least], somehow they worked together amazingly well as an ensemble.)
I'll throw something: None of these offend me.

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Spoiler: George Clooney
Should win: Day-Lewis
I'll throw something: Gosling

Best Actress
Will win: Christie
Spoiler: Page
Should win: Christie
I'll throw something: Cotillard (I've accepted she might win the Oscar. Ewwwww) or Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Bardem
Spoiler: Affleck
Should win: Jones
I'll throw something: nobody

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Blanchett (note: whoever wins this wins the Oscar, I believe.)
Spoiler: Ryan
Should win: Blanchett
I'll throw something: Keener

And TV. Just for shits 'n' giggles! I'm probably gonna get these all wrong! Without the spoilers and "should win"s because I don't watch that much current TV (minus, clearly, The Office...). I find it hard to take the comedy nominations seriously because there's no John Krasinski...

Ensemble - Comedy Series: 30 Rock
Ensemble - Drama Series: The Sopranos
Actor - Comedy Series: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Actor - Drama Series: John Hamm, Mad Men
Actress - Comedy Series: Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
Actress - Drama Series: Glenn Close, Damages
Actor - Miniseries: Kevin Kline, As You Like It
Actress - Miniseries: Queen Latifah, Life Support

Probably my favorite of the many first-time nominees

Yes, I realize how silly and frivolous it seems to be posting about the Oscars now, but...



Ah, Viggo. Despite your presence in a few movies, I can't say I ever really noticed you until 2001 and the Lord of the Rings series, where my first thought was "damn that guy pulls off long hair even better than Orlando Bloom." Since then, though, you've been a (happily) inescapable part of the movies. You were serviceable if not outstanding in the Lord of the Rings, but then came your work with Cronenberg...ahhhhh. You were a revelation in A History of Violence (I was never expecting a performance like that, and it was absolutely brilliant), and you're even better in Eastern Promises. Your nomination was completely deserved. You are incredibly talented, and I'm thrilled to say that you're now an Oscar nominee. Keep it up, and it won't be too long before you're a winner (The Road?).

I gotta say, though, when I look at your name for too long I just start to giggle. VIGGO!

Light in your eyes.

There's a light in your eyes that I used to see
There's a place in your heart where I used to be
Was I wrong to assume
You were waiting for me?
There's a light in your eyes
Did you leave that light burning for me?

Not connected to anything I'm thinking/feeling (yeah, I'm still with the lovely boyf, in case anyone was wondering), but just a good song.

Done now, I suppose.

There's only so much time you can spend mourning someone you didn't know, no matter how how much you liked them or how sad their sudden, all-too-soon death is. I'm sure the return of poor Michelle and Matilda to New York will be a ridiculous media frenzy, and I'll try my best to stay out of it.

In conclusion, and I hope this is the last time I have to say it: Rest in peace, Heath Ledger.

And it breaks my heart. It breaks my heart.

i really am gonna miss you, lovely.

a beautiful tribute.

An Actor Whose Work Will Outlast the Frenzy from the New York Times.

turbulent day, huh?

So incredibly sad.

I absolutely loved Heath Ledger, honestly. I loved him in 10 Things I Hate About You (even if it was way beneath him...okay, that movie is a huge guilty pleasure), I loved him in Monster's Ball (he's the best performance in the movie!), I loved having this picture on my desktop for a good portion of freshman year (what can I say, he's a good-looking guy), and I loved, loved, loved him for Brokeback Mountain. Little else worked in that movie, but Ennis del Mar - you broke my heart. Today, you broke my heart again. 28 years old...

RIP, Heath.

and the oscar (nomination) goes to...

YEAH IT DOES.

For my predictions, see here. Note I only predicted the major ones.

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Thoughts: This lineup is hot. When the worst of them is Juno, you know something happened to the Academy, and that something was awesome. AHHHH Atonement YAYYY!!! No, it's not the best of these nominees, but it's fantastic, in my Best Picture lineup, and I'm glad to see it recover. Take THAT, guilds!
Will win: No Country for Old Men has the most nominations and it's got the (deserved) hype going for it since it opened.
Alternate: It's clear they loved There Will Be Blood too, but that has way more detractors than No Country.
Dark horse: Juno has been surprising everyone all season.
Should win: All of these movies are absolutely exemplary for what they are, but There Will Be Blood is a true frontrunner in the quest to revolutionize cinema. Damn, PTA.
I predicted: 4/5, missing Atonement for Into the Wild; Atonement was my 6th placer. I'm extremely pleased with that and rather happy in a schadenfreude-ish way that Oscar clearly didn't like Into the Wild, as it's one of very few films this year that I didn't think lived up to their hype (the other notable ones being I'm Not There, Knocked Up, and especially Once). Toldja Oscar wouldn't go for Diving Bell.

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Ethan & Joel Coen - No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Thoughts: I'm not quite sure what Reitman's direction had to do with Juno being so good, but it only proves that the Academy loved it. Diving Bell gets the lone arty spot, I guess. And YES for PTA. After being ignored for two masterpieces in the '90s, he finally gets the nomination for what might be his greatest film yet. I do find it shocking that all the actor-directors were snubbed this year - Denzel, Sean Penn, Ben Affleck. I realize Denzel and Ben weren't really in the race to begin with, but you know.
Will win: It's the Coens' to lose.
Alternate: Like I said before, Oscar loved There Will Be Blood, and Anderson is all over that movie.
Dark horse: Schnabel won the Globe (from the Foreign Press, mind you) and clearly has support... but when's the last time the lone director won?
Should win: As I said before, P.T. Anderson makes what might be the greatest film of his career (and that's saying a lot when you've made Boogie Nights and Magnolia), and There Will Be Blood just wouldn't be the same without him. That's a stupid statement, I realize - aren't the directors what make their films, after all? - but There Will Be Blood is just very, very, Paul Thomas Anderson.
I predicted: 4/5 missing Reitman (didn't we all) for Penn, whose film I thought had more support in general + actor-turned-director. Reitman wasn't even in my (four!) alternates =/

Best Actor
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Thoughts: When I first watched the Oscar broadcast at lunchtimeish here and they got to Best Actor and they said Tommy's name, I thought someone had made some sort of cruel joke and when I really checked the Oscar nominations, it would be like...Cate Blanchett again or something. But NO! He really got nominated! AMAZING. That said, wow, Oscar hates its youngin's. Hirsch, Gosling, and McAvoy, all serious contenders, got left out for Lee Jones, which means the youngest is Depp, who is... 44? 45?
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis has kind of had this in the bag since the trailer came out, and for good reason.
Alternate: Clooney has the (very few) awards DDL doesn't, and the love of, well, everyone! Plus, the film was clearly liked.
Dark horse: Haha hey, remember how back in like February/March '07 some big/main Oscar coverer guy made a blog post that was like "THERE IS A 90% CHANCE JOHNNY DEPP WILL WIN THE OSCAR WHOAMG." Well...you don't make claims like that a year in advance =/ Depp's hype still isn't dead, though, and he clearly has fans (and detracters, finally, thank God. Just when I start to be less annoyed by him...).
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Daniel Day-Lewis. Though all these nominees are good, and actually, three of these are my top 3 (you'll just have to wait a little to see who, though. Ha.)...
I predicted: 4/5 missing Lee Jones (not in my alternates...but was he in yours either? Probably not...) for Hirsch.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away from Her
Marion Cotillard - La vie en rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

Thoughts: OMG OMG OMG OMG LAURAAA!!!!!!! When I watched the nomination video and they said Blanchett first, I actually went "BAH" and prepared to sleep through the rest of the nomination... but ohhh noooo it was JOLIE who got the snub, for the Lovely Laura Linney! AHHHHH I love the Oscars sometimes!!!! I'm so very thrilled about Laura I'm almost - almost - okay with Jesus getting snubbed.
Will win: Julie Christie.
Alternate: Ellen Page. I don't care that Cotillard won the Globe, that's the Foreign Press and Juno clearly had a lot of support (Director...yeah, who saw that getting in?). Or...okay, I just don't want to think about Cotillard winning. Blah.
Dark horse: Oh, I so want to say Linney's going to pull a Gay Harden. Sorry, Julie, but I'd about cry in joy if that happened. But, yeah, I'm not deluding myself. Unfortunately, Cotillard is way more likely, which means her fans would continue being the most obnoxious ever until the end of time. Yes, we know you thought she was good. Do you have to keep insulting the person who's going to win the Oscar over her? Ass (es).
Should win: Both Linney and Christie were superb, but LAURA LINNEY!!!! AAAAHHH I STILL CAN'T BELIEVE SHE ACTUALLY GOT IN!!!!!!
I predicted: 3/5 going with Blanchett for the snub instead of Jolie (I wasn't the biggest fan of Jolie either, but booooo) and Adams instead of Linney for the "PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE" spot. I also said that I would cry of happiness if Linney got in...I can't say I did, but I did let out quite a loud shriek of utter joy. I swear, the Oscars make crazy people out of all of us.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck - The Assassination...
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Thoughts: This has been locked up for uh, a long time, so yeah. It really is an excellent lineup, though.
Will win: Javier Bardem. And Spain, for some reason, hates him (my host mom, while I was there, tried to explain it to me, but I was very confused and I'm still not sure why), so I'm sure they won't mention it. Hee.
Alternate: Casey Affleck has the critics' wins Bardem doesn't. Oscars for the whole Affleck family! Hooray! (Imagine if Ben got in somehow, too, and Jennifer Garner for Juno. That'd be adorable.)
Dark horse: Holbrook could concievably pull an Alan Arkin, beating other, much better, nominees, but there's a pretty significant difference - Arkin's film was beloved by the Academy and Holbrook's isn't.
Should win: Javier Bardem was kind of beyond words in No Country. From the very beginning...that look on his face when he strangles the guy who arrests him is amazing (and obviously, terrifying). Ahhh... but as I said above, it's an excellent lineup. Even if Holbrook - the least of the group - pulls an Arkin I won't have to do a "what? NO!" like I did last year.
I predicted: 5/5. Hooray. Me, and everyone else, I think.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Thoughts: It's fine. Neither Ryan nor Dee really excite me, but both are okay (and Dee was in Do the Right Thing! And Ryan was in You Can Count on Me! Both of these, quite frankly, get you eternal love from me!). And hey, Tilda Swinton finally gave a performance that made me understand her hype!
Will win: Hard to call between Ryan and Blanchett. I'm gonna wait until the SAG is over to make a final call, I think... for now, I'm going with Blanchett.
Alternate: Ryan's right on her heels, though. I think this one is far from locked.
Dark horse: ...or, I can still easily see Blanchett and Ryan splitting votes and Swinton getting it, especially since the film is a Best Picture nominee, supported in other categories, and not seeming likely of a win anywhere...
Should win: Cate Blanchett. Fine, universe! You win! (Seriously, she was excellent in I'm Not There. The...only excellent thing about that movie. =/)
I predicted: 4/5, going for Keener over Dee. I wish it had gone to, I dunno, Kelly MacDonald or Jennifer Garner or something, but between Keener and Dee, I'm glad I was wrong.

Best Original Screenplay
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Thoughts: Yup, pretty standard. It was always going to be 4 great screenplays and one that had no chance and was bad (Lars and the Real Girl or Knocked Up). Also...this lineup is estrogen-riffic!
Will win: Juno. Have you been paying attention for the past month or so?
Alternate: Michael Clayton, if the "homeskillet" backlash kicks up enough...
Dark horse: Ratatouille. OMG if this won I would be SO HAPPY.
Should win: Ratatouille. Though, as I said, four of these screenplays are great and one is...Lars and the Real Girl.
I predicted: 4/5, going for Knocked Up instead of Lars and the Real Girl, assuming Oscar couldn't ignore Apatow any more. I guess they can... and quite frankly, I'm damn thankful for that!

Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Thoughts: Away from Her is an absolutely lovely surprise. Sarah Polley deserved a nomination (and a win!) all the way back in 1997 for The Sweet Hereafter, so that's great for her. I didn't think she was quite as deserving for director - she was a tad too detached - but here, totally. Congrats, Sarah!
Will win: No Country for Old Men, which isn't only the frontrunner but also had an unlikely Globe win.
Alternate: There Will Be Blood is clearly the second-placer in a lot of these categories...
Dark horse: Atonement, if it had had more support throughout the season in general, is the British prestige-y type movie that Oscar loves.
Should win: Atonement, for deftly adapting an incredibly complex novel (though I still haven't seen Diving Bell, and probably won't for a long time :( ).
I predicted: 4/5, going for Into the Wild instead of Away from Her. But we all know what was Into the Wild's fate...

Note: after here, the predictions get kinda list-y and less analysis-y...

Best Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Alternate: Atonement
Dark horse: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Should win: of these, Atonement, though I give Deakins the win for Assassination and No Country together

Best Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Alternate: There Will Be Blood
Dark horse: The Bourne Ultimatum
Should win: There Will Be Blood (or No Country for Old Men...hmm)

Best Art Direction
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
Will win: hmmm, Sweeney Todd
Alternate: Atonement
Dark horse: There Will Be Blood
Should win: There Will Be Blood

Best Costume Design
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La vie en rose
Sweeney Todd
Will win: Atonement
Alternate: Sweeney Todd
Dark horse: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Should win: Atonement (ahhh, the green dress!)

Best Makeup
La vie en rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Will win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Should win: La vie en rose

Best Score
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
Will win: Atonement
Alternate: Ratatouille
Dark horse: Michael Clayton
Should win: Atonement (why oh why is There Will Be Blood not eligible again)

Best Original Song
August Rush - "Raise It Up"
Enchanted - "Happy Working Song"
Enchanted - "So Close"
Enchanted - "That's How You Know"
Once - "Falling Slowly"
Will win: "Falling Slowly"
Alternate: "That's How You Know"
Dark horse: "So Close"
Should win: "Falling Slowly"

Best Sound
3:10 to Yuma

The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
Transformers
Will win: Transformers
Alternate: The Bourne Ultimatum
Dark horse: No Country for Old Men
Should win: ummm... No Country for Old Men?

Best Sound Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
Will win: Transformers
Alternate: The Bourne Ultimatum
Dark horse: No Country for Old Men
Should win: Transformers

Best Visual Effects
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers
Will win: Transformers
Should win: Transformers

Best Animated Film
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up
Will win: Ratatouille
Should win: Ratatouille

and for Foreign Language, Documentary, and the Shorts, just...look on IMDb or something. Lazy, I am.

Overall notes:
- AHHHHH LAURA LINNEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- They really didn't like Sweeney Todd or Into the Wild very much.
- HAHAHAHA NORBIT THE OSCAR NOMINEE HAHAHAHA. Between this and Click last year, I think the Makeup department is just insane and wants to fuck with all of us.
- Okay, three nominations for Enchanted's songs (including the inane "Happy Working Song," which wouldn't have been shit without the genius person who sings it), but you couldn't manage a nod for Amy Adams? Boo. At least she'll be singing it live (I guess)!!!
- As long as I'm on the subject, Best Song is very strange. August Rush was awful and I don't enjoy thinking about it, but "Raise It Up" was the best song in the movie...not that that really says too much. Once is the most overrated film of 2007, but it should honestly take up all five spaces in this category ("Falling Slowly," "If You Want Me," "Lies," "Fallen from the Sky," "When Your Mind's Made Up" is a much better lineup than what they have).
- Surf's Up over The Simpsons Movie might be the strangest nominee of all, next to the very idea of Norbit as an Oscar nominee. Jesus Christ, the Academy loves penguins!
- Okay, I gotta say it: both Cate Blanchett and Jodie Foster were leads in crap films that got awful reviews and were way below them this year. Cate Blanchett was fine but far from outstanding or even very good in her movie. Jodie Foster was, well, not Silence of the Lambs or Contact level, but she was Jodie, that is to say, approximating brilliant. Who's got the Oscar nomination, though? Sigh.
- Do you think Keira is having a fabulous little fit that she didn't get a nomination but the scrawny Irish unknown did?
- SO happy for Ratatouille's many nominations. It's such a great movie.
- Teehee, one of the Best Foreign Film nominations (which are bizarre... where is 4 Months and Persepolis and Diving Bell????? Utterly weird) is from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan greatest country in the world. All other countries are run by little girls. Kazakhstan number one exporter of potassium. Other countries have inferior potassium...
- ... could Kevin O'Connell actually win the Oscar? If he does, I'm predicting he gives one of the best speeches of the night (please, God, let us have an Oscar ceremony.) - in freakin' Sound!
- AHHHHHHH LAURA LINNEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't have time for a full commentary right now, but...

Laura, you made my day!!!

I know I'm not the only one that heard someone whoop and go "yesss!" when her name got read out. Did you hear C.Blah get that? Marion? NO.

oscar nomination eve! AHHHH.

WHO'S EXCITED??? Me, obviously. I guess it's too late to set up a novena for Amy Adams/Laura Linney/Nicole Kidman/Romola Garai/Tang Wei/Christian Bale/Tommy Lee Jones...

Comments on the nominations, of course, after I get done with classes which is uh, never, tomorrow.

in honor of the second-best season finale ever.

...the best, of course, being Sex and the City's "I Heart NY."

Hey.

Hey, how's it going?

Good. Especially after I took all your money in poker.

Haha, yeah... um, hey, can I talk to you about something?

About when you want to give me more of your money?

No, I wa -

Did you want to do that now?

Well...

We can go inside. Feelin' kinda good tonight.

I was just... um...

(pause)

I'm in love with you.

What?

I'm really sorry if that's weird for you to hear. But I needed you to... hear it.

Probably not good timing - I know that - I just...

What are you doing?

What do you expect me to say to that?

I just needed you to know. Once.

Well, I, um... I... I can't...

Yeah.

You have no idea...

Don't do that.

...what your friendship means to me.

Come on. I don't wanna do that. I wanna be more than that.

I can't.

I'm really sorry... if you misinterpreted things. It's probably my fault.

Not your fault. I'm sorry I misinterpreted... uh... our friendship.

----------------------------------

About ten minutes ago.

No, I didn't know what to say.

Yes, I know.

No, I don't know, mom. He's my best friend.

Yeah, he's great.

Yeah... I think I am.

Um... I have to go. I will.

Listen, Jim...

You cried, I cried, we all cried. And, in my case, COULD NOT wait to get the next set of DVDs to watch Season 3.

You know who I just realized who my eternal enemies are?

People who would award The 40-Year-Old Virgin and Brokeback Mountain for the Best Screenplays of 2005. Sorry if you happen to be one of them, dear reader, but I shall probably spend my life arguing against you.

because I can't think of anything better.

Independent Spirit Awards guesses. Why did I do them in such a strange order? I don't know.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Jennifer Jason Leigh - Margot at the Wedding
Anna Kendrick - Rocket Science
Tamara Podenski - Four Sheets to the Wind
Marisa Tomei - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Will win: Blanchett
Spoiler: Tomei
Could win: Jason Leigh
Should win: Blanchett
I haven't seen: Kendrick, Podenski

Best Supporting Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Talk to Me
Marcus Carl Franklin - I'm Not There
Kene Holliday - Great World of Sound
Irfan Kahn - The Namesake
Steve Zahn - Rescue Dawn
Will win: Ejiofor
Spoiler: Franklin
Could win: Zahn
Should win: Zahn
I haven't seen: Ejiofor, Holliday

Best First Screenplay
A Mighty Heart
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Broken English
Juno
Rocket Science
Will win: Juno
Spoiler: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Could win: A Mighty Heart
I haven't seen: Broken English, Rocket Science

Best Screenplay
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Savages
Starting Out in the Evening
Waitress
Year of the Dog
Will win: The Savages
Spoiler: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Could win: Waitress
I haven't seen: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly =/

Best Actor
Pedro Castaneda - August Evening
Don Cheadle - Talk to Me
Frank Langella - Starting Out in the Evening
Tony Leung - Lust, Caution
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages
Will win: Langella
Spoiler: Hoffman
Could win: Cheadle
Should win: Hoffman, though I think if I saw Cheadle I might like him more
I haven't seen: Castaneda, Cheadle

Best Actress
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Sienna Miller - Interview
Ellen Page - Juno
Parker Posey - Broken English
Tang Wei - Lust, Caution
Will win: Page
Spoiler: Jolie
Could win: Wei
Should win: Wei narrowly over Miller
I haven't seen: Posey

Best First Feature
2 Days in Paris
Great World of Sound
The Lookout
Rocket Science
Vanaja
Will win: Rocket Science
Spoiler: 2 Days in Paris
Could win: The Lookout
Should win: ???
I haven't seen: any of these except The Lookout which wasn't worthy of much save a mention of Jeff Daniels.

Best Director
Todd Haynes - I'm Not There
Tamara Jenkins - The Savages
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Gus Von Sant - Paranoid Park
Will win: Schnabel
Spoiler: Haynes
Could win: Reitman
I haven't seen: Schnabel or Von Sant

Best Picture
A Mighty Heart
I'm Not There
Juno
Paranoid Park
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Will win: Juno
Spoiler: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Could win: I'm Not There
I haven't seen: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Paranoid Park

happy birthday, Rainn Wilson.

I have been Michael's number two guy for about five years. And we make a great team. We're like one of those classic famous teams. He's like Mozart and I'm like...Mozart's friend. No. I'm like Butch Cassidy and Michael is like... Mozart. You try and hurt Mozart? You're gonna get a bullet in your head courtesy of Butch Cassidy.

Such a great IMDb poll...

today. I voted for Jules Winnfield (of course - a role, and a performance, so strong that Samuel L. Jackson is still getting typecast as him today, 14 years after Pulp Fiction. I don't care what ya'll say about Martin Landau; yeah, he was really good in Ed Wood, but that Oscar was Sammy's.), and he's rightfully winning, but I love almost all those characters/performances.

Juno...

... ain't "hipster crap." The first twenty or so minutes are kind of "oh no, not this again...," I know (Rainn Wilson, I love your most famous show and I love you on it, but not here). But after that, it turns into a really touching story about a girl who just happens to listen to the Moldy Peaches and be a complete smart-aleck, and those around her. It's a lovely movie, not about "look how cool Juno is," but about relationships - Juno and Paulie, Juno and Leah, Juno and her parents, Juno and Mark, Juno and Vanessa, Mark and Vanessa, her parents and Mark and Vanessa... When I first read the script without having seen the movie, I admit, I thought it was laughably bad. But - maybe it's a testament to the strength of the actors - it works so well on screen. The ending is unbelievably perfect. A lesser movie might end with Mark and Juno together, or Juno and Paulie keeping the baby, but this film strikes a perfect chord with its last scenes. It's such a cliche but: during Juno, I laughed and I cried. "Hipsters" never had such heart as Juno does, and I wish there was room for it on my top 10 (2007 is awesome). A-

deconstructing the 2007 (?) awards season.

Thanks to this one great site, which nails most of the people who have any sort of chance of Oscar. Here are the main categories, with a breakdown of (only) the people/movies listed. I'm not trying to narrow it down to 5 in any category. Note: this post...is a long-y.

No chance: the ones that...well...have no chance. If it's a performance, well, I guess I could say that not even the actor/actress would vote for themselves.
Vote siphoners: if they got a nomination, it would be a tremendous shock, but they're surely going to appear on a ballot somewhere.
It's a possibility: unlikely for the nomination, but it wouldn't be totally surprising
Nearly locks: well...yeah. Those that are almost a sure thing for the nomination. Being snubbed wouldn't be unbelievable, but it would be very surprising.
Locks: if they didn't get in, it would be shocking.
Anyone missing?: those that aren't on the list of even slight possibilities, but that should be.


Best Picture

No chance
Across the Universe
Beowulf
The Children of Huang Shi
The Golden Compass
Grace Is Gone
Lions for Lambs
Love in the Time of Cholera
Margot at the Wedding
Rescue Dawn
Reservation Road
Things We Lost in the Fire
Trade
When Did You Last See Your Father? (did this even come out? Colin Firth. I'd go see it.)
Youth Without Youth

Vote siphoners
The Assassination of Jesse James...
Eastern Promises
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Great Debaters
In the Valley of Elah
The Kite Runner
Lust, Caution
The Savages
Zodiac

it's a possibility
American Gangster
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Charlie Wilson's War
Gone Baby Gone
Sweeney Todd

nearly locks
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood

locks
No Country for Old Men

anyone missing?
3:10 to Yuma
Hairspray
Once
Ratatouille

as you see, Best Picture is...complicated. 7 movies. 5 spots. HARD



Best Director

no chance
Zemeckis - Beowulf
Jordan - The Brave One
Spottiswoode - The Children of Huang Shi
Kapur - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Weitz - The Golden Compass
Strause - Grace Is Gone
Redford - Lions for Lambs
Newell - Love in the Time of Cholera
Baumbach - Margot at the Wedding
Ball - Nothing is Private
George - Reservation Road
Bier - Things We Lost in the Fire
Kreuzpaintner - Trade
Schrader - The Walker
Tucker - And When Did You Last See Your Father?
Coppola - Youth Without Youth

vote siphoners
Taymor - Across the Universe
Dominik - The Assassination of Jesse James...
Greengrass - The Bourne Ultimatum
Nichols - Charlie Wilson's War
Haggis - In the Valley of Elah
Washington - The Great Debaters
Forster - The Kite Runner
Herzog - Rescue Dawn
Jenkins - The Savages

it's a possibility
Lumet - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Cronenberg - Eastern Promises
Affleck - Gone Baby Gone
Haynes - I'm Not There
Reitman - Juno
Lee - Lust, Caution
Fincher - Zodiac

nearly locks
Scott - American Gangster
Wright - Atonement
Penn - Into the Wild
Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Burton - Sweeney Todd
Anderson - There Will Be Blood

locks
Coens - No Country for Old Men

anyone missing?
Polley - Away from Her
Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (the second closest to a lock after the Coens. Why isn't he on this list?)



Best Actor

no chance
Abdallah - The Kite Runner
Bardem - Love in the Time of Cholera
Carell - Dan in Real Life
Crowe - American Gangster (wasn't he bumped to supporting?)
Del Toro - Things We Lost in the Fire
Farrell - Cassandra's Dream
Firth - And When Did You Last See Your Father?
Freeman - The Bucket List
Ganz - Youth Without Youth
Gordon-Levitt - The Lookout
Gyllenhaal - Zodiac
Hawke - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Harrelson - The Walker
Kline - Trade
Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men (campaigned supporting, not lead)
Kline - Trade
Leung - Lust, Caution
MacGregor - Cassandra's Dream
Rhys-Myers - The Children of Huang Shi
Nicholson - The Bucket List
Phillippe - Stop Loss (delayed til 08)
Pitt - Silk
Phoenix - Reservation Road
Phoenix - We Own the Night
Redford - Lions for Lambs
Roth - Funny Games (delayed til 08)
Travolta - Hairspray (campaigned supporting, not lead)
Washington - The Great Debaters
Winstone - Beowulf

vote siphoners
Affleck - Gone Baby Gone
Bale - Rescue Dawn
Cheadle - Talk to Me
Cusack - Grace Is Gone
Gere - The Hoax
Hoffman - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Hoffman - The Savages
Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Pinsent - Away from Her
Pitt - The Assassination...
Sandler - Reign Over Me

it's a possibility
Brolin - No Country for Old Men
Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War

near locks
Depp - Sweeney Todd
Hirsch - Into the Wild
McAvoy - Atonement
Mortensen - Eastern Promises
Washington - American Gangster

locks
Clooney - Michael Clayton
Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

anyone missing?
Bale - 3:10 to Yuma
Crowe - 3:10 to Yuma
Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl
Langella - Starting Out in the Evening
Riley - Control



Best Actress

no chance
Berry - Things We Lost in the Fire
Bishil - Nothing Is Private
Blethyn - Clubland
Hathaway - Becoming Jane
Johansson - The Nanny Diaries
Jones - My Blueberry Nights
Knightley - Silk
Mezzogiorno - Love in the Time of Cholera
Portman - Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
Sarandon - In the Valley of Elah
Thurman - In Bloom (moved to 08)
Watts - Eastern Promises
Watts - Funny Games (moved to 08)

vote siphoners
Judd - Bug
Kidman - Margot at the Wedding
Russell - Waitress
Wei - Lust, Caution

it's a possibility
Blonsky - Hairspray
Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd
Foster - The Brave One

nearly locks
Adams - Enchanted
Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Knightley - Atonement
Linney - The Savages

locks
Christie - Away from Her
Cotillard - La vie en rose
Page - Juno

anyone missing?
Heigl - Knocked Up



Best Supporting Actor

no chance
Beatty - The Walker
Berg - Lions for Lambs
Black - Margot at the Wedding
Bratt - Love in the Time of Cholera
Broadbent - And When Did You Last See Your Father?
Craig - The Golden Compass
Cooper - Breach (leading? No chance either way.)
Cooper - The Kingdom
Cruise - Lions for Lambs
Glover - Beowulf
Dafoe - The Walker
Duvall - We Own the Night
Ebrahimi - The Kite Runner
Eckhart - Nothing Is Private
Edwards - Zodiac
Efron - Hairspray
Ershadi - The Kite Runner
Franco - In the Valley of Elah
Freeman - Feast of Love
Freeman - Gone Baby Gone
Harris - Gone Baby Gone
Hoffman - Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
Howard - The Brave One
Jackson - Resurrecting the Champ
Lee - Sweeney Todd (NOT EVEN IN THE MOVIE!)
Mahmoodzada - The Kite Runner
Molina - The Hoax
Molina - Silk
Owen - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Pitt - Funny Games
Pollack - Michael Clayton
Ramos - Trade
Rockwell - The Assassination...
Roth - Youth Without Youth
Ruffalo - Reservation Road
Rush - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Spall - Sweeney Todd
Toub - The Kite Runner
Wahlberg - We Own the Night
Walken - Hairspray
Whitaker - The Great Debaters
Wilkinson - Cassandra's Dream
Yun-Fat - The Children of Huang Shi

vote siphoners
Bosco - The Savages
Cassel - Eastern Promises
Cohen - Sweeney Todd
De Niro - Stardust
Downey Jr. - Zodiac
Ejiofor - Talk to Me
Mueller-Stahl - Eastern Promises
Rickman - Sweeney Todd
Ruffalo - Zodiac
Zahn - Rescue Dawn

it's a possibility
Dano - There Will Be Blood

nearly locks
Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Holbrook - Into the Wild
Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

locks
Affleck - The Assassination...
Bardem - No Country for Old Men

anyone missing?
Finney - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men
Rudd - Knocked Up
Travolta - Hairspray
von Sydow - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly



Best Supporting Actress

no chance
Adams - Charlie Wilson's War
Atwell - Cassandra's Dream
Bacall - The Walker
Bachleda - Trade
Bello - Nothing is Private
Binoche - Dan in Real Life
Chen - Lust, Caution
Clarkson - Lars and the Real Girl
Collette - Nothing is Private
Connelly - Reservation Road
Cornish - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Dukakis - Away from Her
Fonda - Georgia Rule
Gaitan - Trade
Gay Harden - The Hoax
Gay Harden - Into the Wild
Leoni - The Kite Runner
Lohman - Things We Lost in the Fire
Mendes - We Own the Night
Mitchell - The Children of Huang Shi
Monaghan - Gone Baby Gone
Montenegro - Love in the Time of Cholera
Moreno - Love in the Time of Cholera
Mortimer - Lars and the Real Girl
Morton - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Page - An American Crime
Latifah - Hairspray
Sorvino - Reservation Road
Streep - Lions for Lambs
Streep - Rendition
Theron - In the Valley of Elah
Thomas - The Walker
Tomlin - The Walker
Weaver - The TV Set
Wood - In Bloom (delayed til 08)
Yeoh - The Children of Huang Shi

vote siphoners
Garai - Atonement
Kidman - The Golden Compass
Leigh - Margot at the Wedding
Morton - Control
Pfeiffer - Stardust

it's a possibility
MacDonald - No Country for Old Men
Pfeiffer - Hairspray
Redgrave - Atonement
Roberts - Charlie Wilson's War
Tomei - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

near locks
Keener - Into the Wild

locks
Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Swinton - Michael Clayton

anyone missing?
Dee - American Gangster
Garner - Juno
Mann - Knocked Up
Ronan - Atonement



Original Screenplay

no chance
Across the Universe
The Brave One
The Bucket List
Cassandra's Dream
Dan in Real Life
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Grace Is Gone
Lions for Lambs
The Lookout
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
My Blueberry Nights
Reign Over Me
Talk to Me
Things We Lost in the Fire
The Walker
We Own The Night

vote siphoners
The Great Debaters
I'm Not There
In the Valley of Elah
Margot at the Wedding

it's a possibility
American Gangster
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Eastern Promises
Waitress

near locks
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

locks
none on this list.

anyone missing?
uh... Juno, duh.
Knocked Up
Lars and the Real Girl
Superbad



Best Adapted Screenplay

no chance
And When Did You Last See Your Father?
Beowulf
The Golden Compass
Love in the Time of Cholera
The Nanny Diaries
Nothing Is Private
Reservation Road
Silk
Stardust
Trade
Youth Without Youth

vote siphoners
The Assassination...
The Kite Runner
Lust, Caution
Sweeney Todd

it's a possibility
Away from Her
Gone Baby Gone
Zodiac

nearly locks
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Into the Wild
There Will Be Blood

locks
No Country for Old Men

anything missing?
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

WHEWWWWWWWWWWW.

the BAFTA nominations (and reactions of course)

Picture
American Gangster
Atonement
The Lives of Others
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

I so did not think American Gangster was BAFTA's taste. The Lives of Others is a really interesting and totally great choice, and I have heard that British critics think it is the greatest film ever!!! It's not, but it's just a fantastic movie and I am forever indebted to it for beating the very overrated Pan's Labyrinth (though I maintain that it was absolutely bizarre that it did, especially when Pan's clearly had support in other areas).


British Picture
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
Control
Eastern Promises
This Is England

Totally forgot to predict this. Very strong lineup. The Bourne Ultimatum is British? Coulda fooled me.


Director
PT Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Coen brothers - No Country for Old Men
Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck - The Lives of Others
Paul Greengrass - The Bourne Ultimatum
Joe Wright - Atonement

I was a little shamefully excited when I saw I got my Greengrass "no guts no glory!!!" prediction.


Actor
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
James McAvoy - Atonement
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
Ulrich Muhe - The Lives of Others

This lineup is fucking amazing. Though I find it odd that American Gangster could get in for Picture and Washington didn't have the support to get in here...but whatever, whoever would have been in sixth place if Washington was here is better than Washington. Wow. If this somehow ended up being the Oscar lineup, I might cry in joy.


Actress
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away from Her
Marion Cotillard - La vie en rose
Keira Knightley - Atonement
Ellen Page - Juno

I don't see how Blanchett's "let's just take what I did 9 years ago, but crank it up to 11!!!!" is placing over performances like Wei. Meh. I didn't see BAFTA going for Page at all, but they did.


Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood
Tommy Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

*jaw drops* fucking. perfect. lineup.


Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Kelly MacDonald - No Country for Old Men
Samantha Morton - Control
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Another jaw-droppingly perfect lineup. I am so happy Samantha Morton got in. BAFTA, you are pretty goddamn amazing this year. Does MacDonald have more support than we thought? If you're gonna go for Brits, I'd think they'd go for Redgrave over MacDonald. Both were outstanding, though, so...yeah. Wow, I love BAFTA this year.


Original Screenplay
American Gangster
Juno
The Lives of Others
Michael Clayton
This Is England

American Gangster is a totally bizarre nomination but hey, BAFTA, get down with your bad self.


Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Kite Runner
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Mm-hmm.


In conclusion, I think we can say the BAFTAs this year are almost certain to be better than the Oscars. Ahhh, loves it.

Mr. Big thoughts.

the one, the only, the all-too-lovely original

Chris Noth is good on Sex and the City and he's sexy as anything, but he's basically just a budget George Clooney. Oh, goodness, can you imagine Clooney as Mr. Big? Ahhh...

further conversations with Keira and James.

Keira: James, you woke me up from my nap. Asshole.
James: Well, we have this magazine shoot now, or whatever. You should be a little more excited. We won the Globe!
Keira: I guess. But that still doesn't explain why you're dressed up like fuckin' Danny Zuko.
James: Point taken. You cunt.

Yes/No?

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows is supposedly going to be two films. As long as they film them simultaneously and release them relatively simultaneously, this doesn't seem like a bad idea to me...

my motto of blogging

(besides "never be afraid to bore 'em")

"If you run a pop culture blog, you cannot act like you are oh-so-above pop culture."

You know what?

I like - nay, really like - Sienna Miller. She's really pretty and decidedly "her own person," if that makes any sense. But more importantly, she's turning herself into one outstanding actress. Her performances in 2007's Factory Girl and especially Interview made me, quite frankly, really like her. Okay, so she can suck just as often, and it's just too bad she's way more known in the States (and probably in England/worldwide in general too, no?) as that chick who Jude Law cheated on a nanny with and who wears crazy clothes (which she often does, but she usually turns the fabulous up to 11 for every red carpet event)... but I still really like her.

so I never did predict those BAFTAs...

The long list is here.

Best Picture
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Best Director
PT Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Coen brothers - No Country for Old Men
Paul Greengrass - The Bourne Ultimatum
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright - Atonement
(they loooove Greengrass. Hell, they gave him director last year over Scorsese. And hey, no guts no glory.)

Best Actor
Michael Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
James McAvoy - Atonement
Denzel Washington - American Gangster

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away from Her
Marion Cotillard - La vie en rose
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley - Atonement

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck - The Assassination...
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
John Travolta - Hairspray (why do I see BAFTA going for this? I dunno)
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Romola Garai - Atonement
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
(If Atonement can't pick up major nominations here - I mean in general, not necessarily 3x in Supporting Actress - it is indeed officially dead.)

Best Original Screenplay
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Juno
Knocked Up
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille

Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
Into the Wild
The Kite Runner
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

And that's that. Again: if Atonement doesn't get major support here, its chances at Best Picture are, indeed, nil. I don't quite see it pulling off getting nominated for Oscar's Best Picture, but it's definitely a non-shocking possibility. If it gets snubbed at the BAFTAs, but nominated at the Oscars, it will be ... bizarre. Then again, Keira Knightley (British) has an Oscar nomination but no BAFTA nomination, and Scarlett Johansson (American) has a BAFTA but not even an Oscar nomination...

more things I just realized

...I really dislike the title Hollywoodland. It's just so...anticlimactic. Hollywood! ...Land.

Time to dig up my predictions from March!

Best Picture: Atonement, Charlie Wilson's War, Goya's Ghosts, Lions for Lambs, Reservation Road
What Happened?: Atonement got snubbed by every guild in existence, though it's still got a chance; it's far from totally gone. Charlie Wilson's War got ignored by precursors, though it wasn't a bad guess. Goya's Ghosts never made a splash in America and got bad reviews. Lions for Lambs got awful reviews, and I never saw it myself but if the trailer had been out when I was still here, I would have removed it from my predictions immediately because Jesus Christ that trailer was awful! Reservation Road got awful reviews and vanished. (Better luck with Revolutionary Road, eh?)

Best Director: Cronenberg (Eastern Promises), Forman (Goya's Ghosts), Nichols (Charlie Wilson's War), Redford (Lions for Lambs), George (Reservation Road)
What Happened?: For Forman, Nichols, Redford, and George, see above (plus, many of the criticism about Wilson's has to do with Nichols' direction). Eastern Promises is widely considered not as good as A History of Violence (not incorrectly) and Cronenberg never got any mentions.

Best Actor: Crowe (Gangster), Day-Lewis, Depp, Hanks, Washington
What Happened?: Hey, at least four of these are sort of in the race! Day-Lewis and Depp are basically locks for nominations, and Washington has a chance, and Hanks does...sort of... Crowe, of course, got relegated to Supporting (where he still has no chance; too bad, he was excellent and Washington was coasting), because apparently movies absolutely cannot have two leads of the same gender (I tried to make some "that share genitalia" joke, but it just...wasn't working).

Best Actress: Blanchett, Christie, Jolie, Sarah Jessica Parker (Spinning Into Butter), Streep (Lions for Lambs)
What Happened?: Christie, Jolie, and Blanchett are all locks or near-locks, which makes Parker and Streep hilarious because they are absolutely dead in terms of any Oscar possibility at all. I don't think Parker's movie even ever came out/was picked up for distribution. I also said "I don't think Marion Cotillard will get nominated for La vie en rose" (though I was still pretentiously calling it La Mome), which...so...egg on my face there, yup. Not surprising. Also, during the summer, I LOLed at myself for picking Jolie. To be fair, her chances did completely die down for a long time, then came back out of nowhere. Huh. I dunno.

Best Supporting Actor: De Niro (Stardust), Philip Seymour Hoffman, McAvoy (Becoming Jane), Clive Owen (Golden Age), Wilkinson
What Happened?: You know, for someone who barely did any sort of research, I'm not doing that badly on the acting predictions. It's just... the ones that I got wrong are so very wrong. Hoffman and Wilkinson are extremely likely to get nominations. But, the other three...um...no.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (Charlie Wilson's War), Glenn Close (Evening), Jane Fonda (Georgia Rule), Scarlett Johansson (The Other Boleyn Girl), Nicole Kidman (The Golden Compass)
What Happened?: ...aaaaaaand here's where my "I didn't do that badly on my acting predictions" goes to shit. Adams was just fine in Wilson's (if not a gazillionth as good as her performance in, duh, Enchanted) but Julia Roberts got "all the attention," Evening and Georgia Rule absolutely blew, The Golden Compass didn't get Kidman any attention (then again, neither did Margot at the Wedding), and Boleyn got delayed until 2008 and is probably terrible.

Best Original Screenplay: Cassandra's Dream, Goya's Ghosts, Leatherheads, Lions for Lambs, Rendition
What Happened?: Look at these and laugh at me. It's like, four of the most "oops, these didn't live up to their promise!" movies of the year (and one that got delayed until 2008). I do think Leatherheads might have a good chance for 2008, though. The preview looks great. And George Clooney! And Jim Halpert!!

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Gangster, Charlie Wilson's War, In the Valley of Elah, The Other Boleyn Girl, There Will Be Blood
What Happened?: haha I didn't even get the category right for Elah. It's original. Duh... anyway, this isn't nearly as ridiculous as my predictions for Original Screenplay, as all of these at least have a teeny chance (though let's face it, Gangster and Elah ain't gettin' in) or got delayed until 2008.

Um... at least I never predicted major success for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Youth Without Youth, or Rendition, right?

Oscar predictions post Globe/PGA

Best Picture
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alternates: Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I don't think the Globe win saves Atonement in any way, it just makes the race a little more interesting. Sad, but whatever. At least Atonement has a likely sweep of the BAFTAs, right? I still can't see AMPAS going for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly when Pan's Labyrinth couldn't get in last year (though knowing me, Diving Bell will be nominated, of course). If one of these is most vulnerable, I think it might actually be There Will Be Blood, as it's...um...a tad too crazy for AMPAS, no?


Best Director
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Coen brothers, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alternates: Burton, Scott, Fincher, Lumet

Take DGA. Copy + paste. Hooray! If AMPAS gets sentimental they could go for Lumet or Scott, and if they're feeling crazy they could go for Fincher. Burton still stands a pretty good chance, but I can't think of who to bump out.


Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Alternates: Gosling, Washington, McAvoy

Wow, if this happens, what a strong lineup. Not a performance I didn't like in the bunch. Of course, this means Gosling (sorry, Ryan. Looooved you in Half Nelson.) or Washington will get in at the expense of, like, Viggo. *cries*


Best Actress
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La vie en rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno
Alternates: Blanchett, Linney, Knightley

I know, predicting Adams over Blanchett is sheer lunacy. But...Adams might be on less ballots overall, but get way more #1s; ain't no one votin' #1 for Blanchett except Blanchett. And...I'm thinking optimistically. Shhh! I would cry of happiness if Linney got in, but I just don't think it's happening.


Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Alternates: Travolta (please, no...), Lee Jones, Finney

I don't really see too many people spoiling this party. If Travolta gets in I shan't be happy.


Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Alternates: Redgrave, Dee, Garner

I liked Breslin a lot last year but if she got in, Ronan should get in...


Best Original Screenplay
Juno
Knocked Up
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
Alternates: Lars and the Real Girl, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Don't really have any comments for this one. I just don't see Oscar going for Lars at all. shrug


Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alternates: Charlie Wilson's War, Zodiac, Away from Her

I think, even if it gets left out of Picture/Director/the other majors, the Academy would really have to absolutely despise Atonement to leave it out here.

Hmm.

You know what would be hilarious?

Susie = AMPAS member
Tommy = Paul Haggis

If, against all odds, In the Valley of Elah got an Oscar nom for Best Original Screenplay. Ha! How much do you think the Brokeback fans would freak out over that? Paul Haggis nominated four years in a row! That said, it would be the most amazing thing ever if the movie had huge traction with AMPAS and Tommy Lee Jones got in. If you can give him an Oscar for The Fugitive, you can give him at least a nomination for In the Valley of Elah (or No Country for Old Men)!

PS.: In the Valley of Elah was good but not great, but his competition from 2005's - Ang Lee, duh - movie of this year, Lust, Caution, was just great and much better than Lee's 2005 movie, Brokeback Mountain. Of course, it's being for the most part completely ignored.

Steve Carell gives the best advice.

"He looks back and decides that all those years that he suffered, those were the best years of his life, 'cause they made him who he was. All those years he was happy? You know, total waste. Didn't learn a thing. So, if you sleep 'til you're 18... think of all the suffering you're going to miss. I mean, high school? High school...those are your prime suffering years! You don't get better suffering than that."

"BFD. Engaged ain't married."
"Huh..."
"Never give up. Never, ever give up."

Globe reactions '07 (or '08. whatever)

- Okay, I'm reading an article about the Globes, and did you know there are only 82 members?! Christ. AMPAS has over 6000.
- My predictions weren't that bad, though woohoo I fucked up the major categories (screenplay, director, both Best Pictures).
- Wow, they really did not like No Country all that much. And they hated Juno. Duh, I should have gone with the age-old "Globes love musicals" card. I guess Sweeney Todd/Juno is like last year's Dreamgirls/Little Miss Sunshine.
- Atonement yayyyy!!! Even if you despise it, at least it made the race a little more interesting, right? I don't think it's winning Best Picture, but I think it can at least get the nomination now.
- Schnabel Diving Bell WHAT. You're the one movie I can't see or *cough* find... and you keep winning/being nominated for things. I enjoyed Basquiat and Before Night Falls enough, but didn't think the direction was notable in either, really. You know what, Diving Bell? I'm just gonna have to tough it through Oscar season not having seen you. I can't believe I forgot Julian Schnabel was a famous artist, though. Duh.
- Billy Bush could not be more stupid. Insulting many of the wins (saying Cate Blanchett "just played a man" or something like that and saying Marion Cotillard shouldn't have won because her movie wasn't actually a comedy/musical, which...actually...is a decent criticism), calling virtually every TV show a "movie," and just being generally an idiot... Duh. I mean, he said Amy Ryan should have won because she was "an established actress in the movie business" or whatever, thus inferring that Cate Blanchett is not. I know I'm not her biggest fan, but um, duhhh... and also. "When you team together Johnny Depp and Tim Burton, you get something really special, like Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio." Uh?! I think that only got great just last year, after two previous tries, and well, MARTIN SCORSESE AND ROBERT DENIRO? Jesus. Moron.
- I have no real problems with any of the wins. I would have preferred any of the other nominees over Cotillard, but I'm not like GAR ARGH RAAHHH etc. I actually - and this may shock some of you - love Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There, but she's lead. Still great though, and borderline, so we'll let it slide.
- TV: What is Mad Men? I'm not the most into TV (though as is brutally obvious, I do enjoy The Office, as well as Sex and the City, which I've seen every episode of at least three times. Seriously. No, I don't have a life, why do you ask?), though I do tend to watch one or two episodes of a show just to try it out, but like... I haven't even heard of it. I guess this is what happens when you go to Spain for a semester.
- Katherine Heigl lost. I'm shocked, and of two minds about her. First, I do appreciate that she's not being controlled by her publicist and actually has opinions, and it's kind of hypocritical that everyone applauded her for saying bad things about Isaiah Washington, who everyone hated at the time, but everyone turned on her when she said bad things about Knocked Up, which everyone loved. She's also a good actress and totally likeable in, say, well, Knocked Up, even if she was playing "a shrew." On the other hand, she is everywhere, and I'm getting really tired of her, and it seems clear she's quite full of herself. However, Samantha Morton (and Andy Serkis, and Jim Broadbent) was (were) just fucking amazing in Longford, so I'm incredibly glad she got the recognition she did. And hey, Hugh Lawrie and House lost! YAY!!
- I think Jeremy Piven as Ari Gold should win Best Supporting Actor in a TV Comedy for the rest of time. One of my favorite characters ever.
- In basic conclusion: if this is what the Oscars are like, I'm gonna have to shoot somebody.

keira, keira, keira.

First things first: this picture is weird.

Secondly: Yeah, I know, this and the cover picture are supposed to be "sexy," but really you just look kind of tired and uncomfortable.

Thirdly: I also know this is trying to recreate the now justifiably famous green dress, but why do you never have a proper shirt on? Even skinny people wear shirts! I do, all the time!

Fourth: I read your interview with James McAvoy in Entertainment Weekly, and Jesus Christ woman, do the two of you ever stop cursing?

Fifth: ...but secretly, I thought it was very endearing...

Sixth: I have no idea how I went from thinking you were an annoying little twit to thinking you'd kind of be fun to go out for drinks with. This is high praise, normally reserved for the likes of ScarJo and Natalie Portman.

Love,
Justine

Seventh: PS: This still doesn't mean you're a great actress. Sorry.

and as long as we're talking about voices...

Patrick Wilson is a talented actor and you know, not really very bad to look at to boot. But his voice is just so... loud. This is an incredibly stupid statement, so let me elaborate further. I have Little Children on in the background. I'm not really paying attention to it at all. But somehow, every time Patrick Wilson speaks, without even looking at the TV, I'm like "huh, there's Patrick again." He's way louder than anyone else in this cast, and his voice is really distinctive while being kind of bland (sorry Patty). There's only three other actors I can do that I-know-it's-you-without-looking-at-you thing with: Matt & Kevin Dillon, and Bill Murray (that's only because I worship that last one, though). Huh. Go figure.

Hmm...

Superbad was a lot better in Spanish when I didn't have to hear these characters' fucking annoying voices. Christ. Yes, Christopher Mintz-Plasse is pretty genius and Michael Cera could not be more endearing/adorable and he's younger than me so I feel like a perv!, but the voices of all three of these kids make me want to put my brain on a cheese grater. ARRGH

heh.

Did you know the producers of Atonement wanted to cut the word "cunt" out of the film? Kind of stupid, considering it's only what sets the plot in action (and a lame side note: when I read that when I read the book, I absolutely gasped out loud). Duh...

In other news, I am very pleased to see several major Oscar predicters (Entertainment Weekly, yayyyy!!!!) predicting Laura Linney for The Savages again. I don't think she has much of a chance but if she gets in, it would be pretty much the best thing ever. It would actually be fucking amazing if the two most shaky prospects - Blanchett and Jolie - got swapped out for the far superior Adams and Linney. Ohhh, Academy. I wish I knew how to quit you. GAH